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Snit over thinking...


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19 minutes ago, E. T. said:

I absolutely would have bunted Acuna over. Also good possibility Albies could have beaten the bunt himself too. It was a textbook situation that didn't get taken advantage of. But you never know unless you try.

So you think they wouldn’t have played the infield in and Acuna would have scored based off results that happened afterwards?

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3 minutes ago, E. T. said:

It would have increased the chances, things could have played out differently.

Actually a bunt lower's a teams chances of scoring in that situation. It's why new aged thinking teams don't bunt as much anymore as old school teams. Everything is based on odds and probability.

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Just now, TheTrue7 said:

Maybe..

Ozzies been good though..

He's been great swinging the bat, but the Cards were expecting that...not a bunt. I'm just saying, I personally would have taken that chance on a bunt and hope the #3,4 spot could come through.

It's a interesting dilemma because either way could have worked if some good contact was made.

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9 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Actually a bunt lower's a teams chances of scoring in that situation. It's why new aged thinking teams don't bunt as much anymore as old school teams. Everything is based on odds and probability.

But a runner on second with no outs? Something to think about.

I understand not bunting over someone from 1st. 

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9 minutes ago, E. T. said:

But a runner on second with no outs? Something to think about.

I understand not bunting over someone from 1st. 

Sac Bunt, 2nd to 3rd

This is a common situation, trying to move the potential tying or go-ahead run to third with one out, so that a team can “manufacture” the run. A runner on third with one out will score with a deep fly ball or ground ball to the middle infield if the infield isn’t playing in.

2nd-to-3rd-300x282.png

Runner on 2nd, No Outs: We expect 1.10 runs on average

Runner on 3rd, One Out: We now expect only 0.95 runs on average

RESULT: The bunt reduces the success of the average inning by 0.15 runs, which means that if you bunt 10 times in this situation, your team would score 1.5 fewer runs than if you didn’t. This seems counterintuitive, since a sac fly or middle-infield grounder can score a player from third with one out. But, nonetheless, this sac bunt hurts the inning. This reduction is smaller than in the previous, but still relevant.

https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

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13 minutes ago, E. T. said:

He's been great swinging the bat, but the Cards were expecting that...not a bunt. I'm just saying, I personally would have taken that chance on a bunt and hope the #3,4 spot could come through.

It's a interesting dilemma because either way could have worked if some good contact was made.

You had me at hello.

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5 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Sac Bunt, 2nd to 3rd

This is a common situation, trying to move the potential tying or go-ahead run to third with one out, so that a team can “manufacture” the run. A runner on third with one out will score with a deep fly ball or ground ball to the middle infield if the infield isn’t playing in.

2nd-to-3rd-300x282.png

Runner on 2nd, No Outs: We expect 1.10 runs on average

Runner on 3rd, One Out: We now expect only 0.95 runs on average

RESULT: The bunt reduces the success of the average inning by 0.15 runs, which means that if you bunt 10 times in this situation, your team would score 1.5 fewer runs than if you didn’t. This seems counterintuitive, since a sac fly or middle-infield grounder can score a player from third with one out. But, nonetheless, this sac bunt hurts the inning. This reduction is smaller than in the previous, but still relevant.

https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

Oh no you didn't just bust out with a chart....LOL!

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