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Let's Talk Facts, Football and the Falcons


vel
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Philadelphia was 1-2 as of yesterday morning just like us.  They held off 400+ yards of passing from Rodgers and Green Bay last night and are now 2-2.  We could be the same this week if our defense plays like it played the Eagles in week 2 and our offense plays like it did in the 2nd half of the Colts game.

Steelers 0-3?, Buffalo 3-0?, Cleveland 1-2?, Lions 2-0-1? - does anybody expect these trends to continue for 16 games?

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Vel that is a great post and I have no facts just the eye test. What I see is a team with no run game a team committing way to many penalties. Quinn not improving in game management. 

I wish I could share your optimism but with our schedule I see a 7-9 team or 8-8 at best.

i hope I’m wrong and again great post I’m just so pissed that with all this talent and experience in the coaching staff we keep shooting ourself in the foot.

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2 hours ago, Xfactor said:

Vel that is a great post and I have no facts just the eye test. What I see is a team with no run game a team committing way to many penalties. Quinn not improving in game management. 

I wish I could share your optimism but with our schedule I see a 7-9 team or 8-8 at best.

i hope I’m wrong and again great post I’m just so pissed that with all this talent and experience in the coaching staff we keep shooting ourself in the foot.

Yea, I don't understand how anyone can WATCH this team play and think we are contenders. Everything is out of sync and pretty much every bad habit and issue this team has had since 28-3 is 10 times worse all in one the first part of this season. We are regressing horribly on all our obvious issues.

I just don't see the point in being in denial like some people here and trying to gloss over and make excuses for the obvious disarray we see on the field every week. The team is bad, time for people to call it like it is.

Also the injuries aren't stopping like some people thought just because the calendar year flipped.

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17 hours ago, gazoo said:

So far everything has gone down as I predicted.

A rough, ugly start in first 4 games where we experience growing pains from all the changes , message board apocalyptic insanity with demands to fire coaches, folllowed by....

Well, that’s so far all that has happened.

I also predicted us to go on a tear in second half of season when we play our division games and earn a playoff birth. (revised to a division title after Brees went out)

So far I’m batting 1000% 

There's a long way to go to see who is right.  For all we know, they team could go in the tank. Let's hope they don't, because I can't fault anybody for not having faith at this point. Being a Falcon fan doesn't happen in a vacuum.  There is so much history of disappointment here, that there really isn't anything to base your optimism on. It would be nice if they pull themselves together and right the ship, but this group has given no indication whatsoever that they are going to get it together.

Something that hasn't been mentioned is: What is the effect of the sloppiness and penalties on ref bias against our team? Refs always seem to hose us, and now that we are getting so many called against us, will it mean more flags?  If so, that could cost us victories also.

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4 hours ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

There's a long way to go to see who is right.  For all we know, they team could go in the tank. Let's hope they don't, because I can't fault anybody for not having faith at this point. Being a Falcon fan doesn't happen in a vacuum.  There is so much history of disappointment here, that there really isn't anything to base your optimism on. It would be nice if they pull themselves together and right the ship, but this group has given no indication whatsoever that they are going to get it together.

Something that hasn't been mentioned is: What is the effect of the sloppiness and penalties on ref bias against our team? Refs always seem to hose us, and now that we are getting so many called against us, will it mean more flags?  If so, that could cost us victories also.

Exactly this " there really isn't anything to base your optimism on"

Besides blind faith what on earth are people basing the idea that this team will magically turn things around? That pretty much goes against the entire history of the franchise. How many decades does this Franchise have to beat it's fanbase into submission before they take off the rainbow glasses and see the current team for what it is?

Call me troll all you want but I'm arguing against people that refuse to even see the history and current state of the team and just want to put blinders on and put their head in the sand and pretend everything will work out in the end with nothing to back that up with. I've been right this whole time.

It would be one thing if we played hard and showed glimmers of progress, but this current team the way they are playing is a complete train wreck and getting worse, we still looked pretty bad even winning against the Eagles.

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14 hours ago, Jerz #Quinning said:

Campbell is frustrating. At first when I noticed he was slow at diagnosing plays I just thought that he needed a bit more development but it seems he has plateaued. He's sometimes a tick late in getting to his gap or picking up the TE/receiver. He has the speed, but it takes a while for him to get going. Mainly his instincts leave a little to be desired. 

I hope kazee can find his niche on the defense.

Yep. He's got the talent but he's clueless so often up top. He doesn't process well. He tries to over compensate too often. Glad they haven't extended him. If they can land a legit running mate for Debo, the middle of the defense could be legit. 

I think Kazee will be fine. He's playing corner like safety right now. 

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2 hours ago, Xfactor said:

Vel that is a great post and I have no facts just the eye test. What I see is a team with no run game a team committing way to many penalties. Quinn not improving in game management. 

I wish I could share your optimism but with our schedule I see a 7-9 team or 8-8 at best.

i hope I’m wrong and again great post I’m just so pissed that with all this talent and experience in the coaching staff we keep shooting ourself in the foot.

A team with no run game ignores the defenses they faced. Minnesota and Philly have two of the best run defenses in the NFL over the last five years. They stop everybody. It got going versus IND but the time and score dictated them passing more. 

The penalties are disheartening but let's not act like this is the norm for this team. The last time they had an outrageous amount of penalties (2018 GB - 13 penalties) they followed up the next two games with 4 and 6 penalties. They'll improve. And DQ's game management hasn't been an issue in my opinion. 

I agree they are trending for 8-8. But the reason I'm optimistic is because they are too talented to land at 8-8 if healthy. If they do, then DQ will rightfully be fired. It's very fair to be pissed about this team. Two games they could have won but did more damage to themselves than the opponent. But again, it's still September. Let's get through more of the season before writing them off. 

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Fact.  We blow off winning in preseason as nonconsensual, and then take the first 4 games of the season to try to figure out how to win. By then we dug a hole and have to pray and play catchup against teams that have not goofed off.

We do this almost every year.

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6 minutes ago, Realsurfin said:

Fact.  We blow off winning in preseason as nonconsensual, and then take the first 4 games of the season to try to figure out how to win. By then we dug a hole and have to pray and play catchup against teams that have not goofed off.

We do this almost every year.

DQ has treated preseason the same since he's been here. 

2015 they started 5-0

2016 they started 4-1

2017 they started 3-0

2018 we lost several starters before the fourth game. 

So... no they don't do this almost every year. It took injury to tank the early season last year. They are starting slow this but are the only team in the NFL to play three teams without a losing record so far this year. 

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Great post, @vel

Being  1st in penalties and 2nd in turnovers is a recipe to a 1-15 season.  Correct it and we will be a playoff team.  On the other hand, if te TO’s and penalties continued, we are a 5 win team.  A less talented team would go winless.

 

And people should know statistics mean squat with us.  Up 28-3 we were 99.9% to win the SB.  And, well.....errrrrr.   Jk 
 

 

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59 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Great post, @vel

Leading being 1sr in penalties and 2nd in turnovers is a recipe to a 1-15 season.  Correct it and we will be a playoff team.  On the other hand, if te TO’s and penalties continued, we are a 5 win team.  A less talented team would go winless.

 

And people should know statistics mean squat with us.  Up 28-3 we were 99.9% to win the SB.  And, well.....errrrrr.   Jk 
 

 

What makes you think we will magically correct these issues? The problems this current team has are ones we've had before only now have gotten worse not better. We are not trending towards correction of these problems.

Also we aren't exactly getting healthier either, the injury issues are starting to impact major areas on our team that can't afford to lose starters.

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12 minutes ago, MAD597 said:

What makes you think we will magically correct these issues? The problems this current team has are ones we've had before only now have gotten worse not better. We are not trending towards correction of these problems.

Also we aren't exactly getting healthier either, the injury issues are starting to impact major areas on our team that can't afford to lose starters.

Nobody is saying they will magically correct them. We've all said if they don't then everybody deserves to get fired. 

What are the problems? Penalties? We've already shown DQ's teams have been in the bottom half of the league in penalties. Interceptions? Matt threw 7 INTs all year last year. 

It's football. Players get hurt. Quit bltching. 

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6 minutes ago, vel said:

Nobody is saying they will magically correct them. We've all said if they don't then everybody deserves to get fired. 

What are the problems? Penalties? We've already shown DQ's teams have been in the bottom half of the league in penalties. Interceptions? Matt threw 7 INTs all year last year. 

It's football. Players get hurt. Quit bltching. 

I’d really love to see us in a bit more heavy personnel to keep the defense off balance.  More 13 and 21 worked wonders for us in 2016.  It is especially useful on first down.  My only gripe is seeing Ryan out of shotgun so often.  Being under center always keeps the threat of run in play.  Keeps the defense honest.
 

“Shannahan 13 personnel more than just two other teams, and 21 personnel more than only one. And although he prefers tight ends and fullbacks to multiple wide receivers, he doesn't use heavy sets to just run the ball. No team threw out of 13 or 21 personnel more than the 2016 Falcons; in fact, Shanahan threw out of 13 or 21 personnel more than half of NFL teams combined.

In 2016, the Falcons won because they won on first down, and they won on first down because they were balanced. Shanahan used both big and small sets, and ran and threw out of both -- Ryan was under center on 76-percent of first-down snaps, which was tops in the league and 1.5 times the NFL average. When an offense's playbook isn't limited by personnel or formation, it puts the defense at a distinct disadvantage. Defenders are forced to protect the entire field, mismatches are created, and defenders are more prone to make mistakes. This enabled Shanahan's offense to be both efficient and explosive”

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12 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

I’d really love to see us in a bit more heavy personnel to keep the defense off balance.  More 13 and 21 worked wonders for us in 2016.  It is especially useful on first down.  My only gripe is seeing Ryan out of shotgun so often.  Being under center always keeps the threat of run in play.  Keeps the defense honest.
 

“Shannahan 13 personnel more than just two other teams, and 21 personnel more than only one. And although he prefers tight ends and fullbacks to multiple wide receivers, he doesn't use heavy sets to just run the ball. No team threw out of 13 or 21 personnel more than the 2016 Falcons; in fact, Shanahan threw out of 13 or 21 personnel more than half of NFL teams combined.

In 2016, the Falcons won because they won on first down, and they won on first down because they were balanced. Shanahan used both big and small sets, and ran and threw out of both -- Ryan was under center on 76-percent of first-down snaps, which was tops in the league and 1.5 times the NFL average. When an offense's playbook isn't limited by personnel or formation, it puts the defense at a distinct disadvantage. Defenders are forced to protect the entire field, mismatches are created, and defenders are more prone to make mistakes. This enabled Shanahan's offense to be both efficient and explosive”

Agreed. They showed some of that versus Indy. That INT was a double TE seam, a Kyle staple. But Matt threw a poor pass. 

Kyle's offense isn't the end all be all though. Look at KC. They light teams up by spreading them out with multiple WRs. The Falcons just have to find what they like and get it going. If the second half of the Colts game is any indication, they may be finding it. 

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10 minutes ago, vel said:

Agreed. They showed some of that versus Indy. That INT was a double TE seam, a Kyle staple. But Matt threw a poor pass. 

Kyle's offense isn't the end all be all though. Look at KC. They light teams up by spreading them out with multiple WRs. The Falcons just have to find what they like and get it going. If the second half of the Colts game is any indication, they may be finding it. 

KC doesn’t really run 4 WR sets.  The Cardinals do, but KC hasn’t done it once this year.  Or am I reading this wrong?

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

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4 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

KC doesn’t really run 4 WR sets.  The Cardinals do, but KC hasn’t done it once this year.  Or am I reading this wrong?

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

Didn't say 4 WR. Just multiple. They'll trot Kelce out there and run Watkins, Robinson, and Hardman at the WRs. It's air ball in KC. Different way to attack. Just as stressful. 

I think it's tough when you have so many weapons, but Koetter has been doing it. If not for Matt's INTs, people wouldn't be complaining. They're 6th in yards per drive, 11th in points per drive, but dead last in turnovers per drive. 

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10 minutes ago, vel said:

Didn't say 4 WR. Just multiple. They'll trot Kelce out there and run Watkins, Robinson, and Hardman at the WRs. It's air ball in KC. Different way to attack. Just as stressful. 

I think it's tough when you have so many weapons, but Koetter has been doing it. If not for Matt's INTs, people wouldn't be complaining. They're 6th in yards per drive, 11th in points per drive, but dead last in turnovers per drive. 

I’m seeing things apparently.  I could have sworn your post said look at how KC dominates out of 4 WR sets.

 

Bottom line, Ryan’s best numbers are when he is under center and hard PA is used.  That’s what I want to see more of.  Heavy personnel settings were something I thought Mularkey would handle but as of yet it hasn’t happened too much except vs Indy

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1 minute ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

I’m seeing things apparently.  I could have sworn your post said look at how KC dominates out of 4 WR sets.

 

Bottom line, Ryan’s best numbers are when he is under center and hard PA is used.  That’s what I want to see more of.  Heavy personnel settings were something I thought Mularkey would handle but as of yet it hasn’t happened too much except vs Indy

Lol naw just multiple. And I disagree. His best numbers just happened to be with Kyle here and that was Kyle's preference. When you have Julio, Sanu, Ridley, and Hooper, throwing any passes to Luke Stocker is a wasted rep. I agree on the play action front. You can do that from shotgun. The big plays to Hooper Sunday were out of shotgun play action plays. It works because you have so many threats on the field. Go and look at how many of the plays in the second half were those four guys on the field and not these heavy sets. Matt went 22/23 and 3 TDs at that point. It's all about the marriage of the comfort of the OC and QB. 

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7 minutes ago, vel said:

Lol naw just multiple. And I disagree. His best numbers just happened to be with Kyle here and that was Kyle's preference. When you have Julio, Sanu, Ridley, and Hooper, throwing any passes to Luke Stocker is a wasted rep. I agree on the play action front. You can do that from shotgun. The big plays to Hooper Sunday were out of shotgun play action plays. It works because you have so many threats on the field. Go and look at how many of the plays in the second half were those four guys on the field and not these heavy sets. Matt went 22/23 and 3 TDs at that point. It's all about the marriage of the comfort of the OC and QB. 

PA isn’t nearly as effective out of shotgun or pistol.  Neither is the run game.  Even in 2016 & 2017, when out of shotgun or pistol Freeman averaged a full yard less per carry

From the Shannahan perspective, he was pretty clear on why he prefers to have the QB under center. You can go shotgun but that will also make your offense a whole lot more predictable and now you're leaning more on individual player execution than scheme. It forces you to move away from what your offense does best. Our 2016 offense was heavily dependent on misdirection and playaction. Going shotgun eliminates a lot of that and a blitzing defense is still going to get to the quarterback but now they have a lot less to worry about in terms of misdirection. It gives them more time to react since more of the action is further back of the line of scrimmage. It also makes life tougher on the RBs since they aren't getting a running start with the football, making it tougher for them to go downhill.

I guess misdirection isn’t a huge part of our offense anymore.  That’s unfortunate.  So maybe being under center isn’t as important.

In SF right now:

Jimmy undercenter 76% 104 QB rate
Jimmy gun 57% 82 QB rate

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3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

PA isn’t nearly as effective out of shotgun or pistol.  Neither is the run game.  Even in 2016 & 2017, when out of shotgun or pistol Freeman averaged a full yard less per carry

From the Shannahan perspective, he was pretty clear on why he prefers to have the QB under center. You can go shotgun but that will also make your offense a whole lot more predictable and now you're leaning more on individual player execution than scheme. It forces you to move away from what your offense does best. Our 2016 offense was heavily dependent on misdirection and playaction. Going shotgun eliminates a lot of that and a blitzing defense is still going to get to the quarterback but now they have a lot less to worry about in terms of misdirection. It gives them more time to react since more of the action is further back of the line of scrimmage. It also makes life tougher on the RBs since they aren't getting a running start with the football, making it tougher for them to go downhill.

I guess misdirection isn’t a huge part of our offense anymore.  That’s unfortunate.  So maybe being under center isn’t as important.

In SF right now:

Jimmy undercenter 76% 104 QB rate
Jimmy gun 57% 82 QB rate

I agree. But all I'm saying is there is more than one way to skin a cat. PA in general is more effective than not. I agree. Under center or shotgun doesn't matter. They aren't running enough of it. I agree there. 

Misdirection is still there. I think yall have to stop making definitive statements after three games. One game, they had 6 drives. Philly and Green Bay had six drives each in the first half alone last night. Again, look at the Chiefs. They don't run anything similar to the Niners, yet they are wildly successful. They find ways to get guys open. But it's not like Andy hasn't been there running that offense with most of those guys for seven seasons now. Koetter is trying to marry several schemes together. His four vertical attack that stresses teams, Mularkey's running game prowess, and the existing WCO infrastructure. Give him some time. Again, we haven't lacked for offense so far. They played two very good defenses to open the season. You saw them light the Colts up when they got going. If the defense could have gotten any kind of stop, they probably win that game. 

Give it some time. 

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7 minutes ago, vel said:

I agree. But all I'm saying is there is more than one way to skin a cat. PA in general is more effective than not. I agree. Under center or shotgun doesn't matter. They aren't running enough of it. I agree there. 

Misdirection is still there. I think yall have to stop making definitive statements after three games. One game, they had 6 drives. Philly and Green Bay had six drives each in the first half alone last night. Again, look at the Chiefs. They don't run anything similar to the Niners, yet they are wildly successful. They find ways to get guys open. But it's not like Andy hasn't been there running that offense with most of those guys for seven seasons now. Koetter is trying to marry several schemes together. His four vertical attack that stresses teams, Mularkey's running game prowess, and the existing WCO infrastructure. Give him some time. Again, we haven't lacked for offense so far. They played two very good defenses to open the season. You saw them light the Colts up when they got going. If the defense could have gotten any kind of stop, they probably win that game. 

Give it some time. 

I agree.  And it should balance out by Week 12

I am just saying these are the things Ryan did best.  Not that he liked the best, cause he didn’t.  Ryan openly admits he does not like turning his back on the defense. But Shanahan made him do it anyways,  Neither Sark not Dirk take such a heavy handed approach with Ryan..but maybe that style coaching gets the best version of Matt Ryan?

We will know more in 2 months.  Hoping like crazy for the best 

Regardless, solid discussion Vel.  Always like your insight

 

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Just now, FalconsIn2020 said:

I agree.  And it should balance out by Week 12

I am just saying these are the things Ryan did best.  Not that he liked the best, cause he didn’t.  Ryan openly admits he does not like turning his back on the defense. But Shanahan made him do it anyways,  Neither Sark not Dirk take such a heavy handed approach with Ryan..but maybe that style coaching gets the best version of Matt Ryan?

We will know more in 2 months.  Hoping like crazy for the best 

 

I think Kyle unlocked a level of a**hole in Ryan that he needed. A level of "You can make these throws so throw it!" I compare it to SD Brees vs NO Brees with Payton. Kyle was Matt's Payton. It wasn't the offense, but the OC calling things that got Matt in a rhythm and made his job easier. If Koetter could get 5000 yards out of Jameis and Fitzmagic, he can find his way. 

The next five games are going to be crucial. They dropped a game to the Colts I don't think they should have. Now let's go steal one they shouldn't. 

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1 minute ago, vel said:

I think Kyle unlocked a level of a**hole in Ryan that he needed. A level of "You can make these throws so throw it!" I compare it to SD Brees vs NO Brees with Payton. Kyle was Matt's Payton. It wasn't the offense, but the OC calling things that got Matt in a rhythm and made his job easier. If Koetter could get 5000 yards out of Jameis and Fitzmagic, he can find his way. 

The next five games are going to be crucial. They dropped a game to the Colts I don't think they should have. Now let's go steal one they shouldn't. 

Agreed.

And the yardage for Ryan is irrelevant.  At least for me.  If we average 100 ypg on the ground, we will make the playoffs and Ryan will be a top-7 QB.  

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