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What We Know After Two Weeks: Quinn & Belichick


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Admittedly, You don’t know a whole lot after two weeks, but an identity has started to be formed  and here is what we know: • Belichick & Quinn still have it as DC’s.  They are the only two H

They didnt even get close to letting their best defensive player walk. Can we wait more than two weeks? They just shutout a tanking Dolphins team. Of course their stats are amazing.

I like data such as this. Thanks for posting! It will be interesting to see if Miami continues to be the dumpster fire that they currently are and how that pads the stats for all teams they face come

1 minute ago, Ovie_Lover said:

@FalconsIn2020

Since we can make reasonable assumptions after 2 weeks list your top 5 offenses and defenses by points, not yards for the 2019 season.

Who I think, or who currently is?

PPG Offense: Dallas, NE and KC will all likely remain in top 5

Total Offense:  Dallas, KC, NE & Chargers all possibly  stay in top 5

TOTAL DEFENSE: NE, Chicago, Baltimore & ATL likely all remain in top 5

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18 hours ago, mqg96 said:

Thanks for these stats @FalconsIn2020 very intriguing. 

The Falcons defense in turnover margin or forcing turnovers has been a recurring problem for Dan Quinn teams the past few years now. It would help if our defense can force more turnovers and put our offense in good field position more often. 

With our DL suddenly showing some ferocity and push, we're already seeing more turnovers. I feel very confident we'll continue trending up the rest of the season as everybody gets more reps together.

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7 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

We have an identity. The defense is definitely fast and physical. They’re meaner than they were with smith and Manuel. This team has an identity of tough and mean that I haven’t seen in my days. They gotta keep it up tho. 

That’s pretty much all I was saying.  Just trying to post some positive stuff we’ve seen through 2 weeks

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13 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

These conclusions are quite hasty. 

Also: yardage "rankings" are bunk. 

Yardage was the more appropriate number because our offense & ST’s have put the defense in terrible spots.  Average drive starts at the 50 yard line.  So points were going to be surrendered

And again, the first sentence of the OP says “ admittedly, we don’t know much after two weeks.”  Just trying to get a healthy discussion going.  If two weeks don’t matter, why are we talking about anything?

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11 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

These conclusions are quite hasty. 

Also: yardage "rankings" are bunk. 

Exactly. So now we are going to act like the Minnesota game was a "good" defensive performance because we allowed 97 yards passing. Let's get real here. Yardage stats even through 17 games are pretty meaningless, in two games using it as some sort of argument for good defense is laughable from a statistical perspective. 

I'm more encouraged about the eye test in the trenches against the Eagles than any yardage number. 

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6 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Yardage was the more appropriate number because our offense & ST’s have put the defense in terrible spots.  Average drive starts at the 50 yard line.  So points were going to be surrendered

And again, the first sentence of the OP says “ admittedly, we don’t know much after two weeks.”  Just trying to get a healthy discussion going.  If two weeks don’t matter, why are we talking about anything?

You also made it out like the top 5 after two weeks will be the same or close to after the entire season when that's not the case.

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17 hours ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Do the games count the same as Week 17?  The stats matter.  As I said in the OP, we don’t know a ton based off two games, but we can tell a few things already.

And I didn’t compare Falcons & Patriots.  I was providing stats for the only two HC’s also moonlighting as DC

Any single game means very little. Week 1, week 17, a one (or two-game) sample is completely pointless. What you want is as big as a sample size as possible for any stat to have any weight. Regardless 17 game sample for a stat like total yards is completely pointless, and more so when comparing teams from two different divisions that don't play each other and probably don't have more than 1 or 2 common opponents throughout a season. If this was baseball and we had 100+ game data set then the stats would make a little more sense, but if you know baseball stats you know that even with the large sample size a stat like total runs or hits given up means very little compared to some of the more advanced metrics that take into account strength of schedule and park factors etc. 

But to clarify I'm not saying our defense has been garbage. It was certainly abysmal against Minnesota and pretty **** good up until the fourth quarter against the Eagles. I'll go with that as we are trending in the right direction but we need to see at least another repeat performance before we can truly justify the sentiment. 

Edited by Dr Long Shot
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14 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Yardage was the more appropriate number because our offense & ST’s have put the defense in terrible spots.  Average drive starts at the 50 yard line.  So points were going to be surrendered

And again, the first sentence of the OP says “ admittedly, we don’t know much after two weeks.”  Just trying to get a healthy discussion going.  If two weeks don’t matter, why are we talking about anything?

I didnt say two weeks of play didnt matter. I'm saying two weeks of "total yardage" shouldnt be construed as a measure of defensive quality. 

There are reasons to be encouraged by the defense. I just dont think those reasons include a "total yardage ranking." And I dont think the available data is sufficient to say "Dan Quinn still has it!" or any similar conclusion. That doesnt mean he DOESNT "have it" but we need to see quite a bit more before we start drawing larger conclusions. 

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8 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Any single game means very little. Week 1, week 17, a one (or two-game) sample is completely pointless. What you want is as big as a sample size as possible for any stat to have any weight. Regardless 17 game sample for a stat like total yards is completely pointless, and more so when comparing teams from two different divisions that don't play each other and probably don't have more than 1 or 2 common opponents throughout a season. If this was baseball and we had 100+ game data set then the stats would make a little more sense, but if you know baseball stats you know that even with the large sample size a stat like total runs or hits given up means very little compared to some of the more advanced metrics that take into account strength of schedule and park factors etc. 

But to clarify I'm not saying our defense has been garbage. It was certainly abysmal against Minnesota and pretty **** good up until the fourth quarter against the Eagles. I'll go with that as we are trending in the right direction but we need to see at least another repeat performance before we can truly justify the sentiment. 

I know a larger sample size is a better indicator....but we are now 12.5% done with the regular season.  We can start putting pieces of the puzzle together.  

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Just now, FalconsIn2020 said:

I know a larger sample size is a better indicator....but we are now 12.5% done with the regular season.  We can start putting pieces of the puzzle together.  

Not really, but whatever lol. As I said total yards even with 100% of the regular season done is a pretty meaningless stat in and of itself. The defense looked good against the Eagles for long stretches, that's really the only indicator we have to go on Total yards given up, especially considering the ridiculously unusual Minnesota performance, is not an indicator of anything. 

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19 minutes ago, Dr Long Shot said:

Not really, but whatever lol. As I said total yards even with 100% of the regular season done is a pretty meaningless stat in and of itself. The defense looked good against the Eagles for long stretches, that's really the only indicator we have to go on Total yards given up, especially considering the ridiculously unusual Minnesota performance, is not an indicator of anything. 

I mean, every single NFL team breaks their season down into 4 quarters.  We are halfway thru our first quarter.  The only statistic that is completely irrelevant is Ryan’s INT’s.  That number is an anomaly.

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Just now, FalconsIn2020 said:

I mean, every single NFL team breaks their season down into 4 quarters.  We are halfway thru our first quarter.  The only statistic that is completely irrelevant is Ryan’s INT’s.  That number is an anomaly.

Look, we can argue about this all day, I see you aren't budging. If you think Quinn is flipping through the total yards given up numbers when evaluating the defense right now, then go right ahead. But my opinion, as someone who analyses metrics for a living, is that it's the dumbest possible way to assess anything pertaining to the quality of the team's defensive performance right now. 

Quinn has said in the past that the single metric they put the most weight on is turnovers. Never mentioned yards. 

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2 hours ago, GeorgiaBoyz said:

Bill B & Dan Quinn in the same sentence .. again .

I don’t care what stats say .. one is unlike the other & the margin is as wide as the Grand Canyon . 

That’s true for any coach when being compared to BB.

Thats why I didn’t compare them.  Just showed that both still have skills as a DC

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1 hour ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

That’s true for any coach when being compared to BB.

Thats why I didn’t compare them.  Just showed that both still have skills as a DC

BB has had defensive skills consistently his whole career . DQ has had 1 good defense here 2017. We’re 2 games in this year, if this is the next that’ll make 2 . That’ll make 2 outta 5 years. Again what’s the comparison ? It isn’t one especially if it’s “skill.”

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