Rise Up...or Get Gone! Scouting the Opponent: The Indianapolis Colts

[vel 28,962]

That's how you bounce back! I knew all week this group was too talented to not bounce back. That was the team we expected to see to start the season. The Dome was rocking and the players made it worth it. The defense made a big statement Sunday night, shutting down the Eagles running game and knocking Wentz around to the point Josh McCown had to actually come in the game. When's the last time you could say that about a Falcons pass rush? The run defense was legit, with Davison and Bailey showing exactly why they were brought here to run with Grady. Folks thought that Eagles OL was going to bully us, but forgot to look at who the Falcons were bringing to the game as well. Same with our OL. They showed up big. Schwartz had to send his kitchen sink and his mom's to get pressure on Matt. Think about that. With Lindstrom out and McGary going down, they still needed to blitz. He got some wins, but in the grand scheme of things, all that blitzing only netted 1 sack and 6 hits. That's a win for the OL. Hat off to Jamon Brown as well. The Big Fella showed what 340lbs of mass on the OL can do for you. Cox was neutralized repeatedly and even dumped on his back for a pancake. You never saw that with Cox against this OL before. This was just a physical, sixty minute fight, and the Falcons were the ones bringing it this time. DQ also showed he's not some push over coach like some fans think. He was pissed and got that team right in a week's time. Give him his credit. 

We are 1-1 and I love it. Getting one win out of two versus Minnesota and Philadelphia is big. This may be a tie breaker for playoff implications, but for now, it's just a big win, at home, on primetime TV to avoid an 0-2 hole in a wide open NFC South race! On to Indianapolis:

(Disclaimer: This is the Baltimore Colts logo, but I like it more than the plain horseshoe.)

Head Coach: Frank Reich
Offensive Style: Classic West Coast Style
Defensive Style: 4-3 defense (Cover 2/3)

2018 Record: 10-6
Falcons All Time Record: 2-14 (!)

The Way I See It: The Colts are a solid team. Losing Luck does not help their cause. At all. Brissett is fine, but he's not Luck. No matter what anybody tries to say or convince you otherwise, one is a four time Pro Bowler and the other was a career back up that was thrust into action when Luck was hurt in 2017. That's a massive difference. They've suffered some other injuries/losses, so it makes it a little tough to figure them out. There will be no Jabaal Sheard, no Devin Funchess, and potentially no Pierre Desir, Darius Leonard, or Kemoko Turay. Those last three guys are major parts of the Colts defense, with Leonard being the biggest potential loss. This is an opportunity to show the Falcons are a class above the Colts in their current form. Don't hang around with lesser teams or take them lightly. We saw this group get ran out of Cleveland last year because "it was the Browns". Show you take every game seriously and start re-staking your claim in the top tier of the NFL. 

How We Match Up: With or without the injuries, I liked this match up coming into the year. No, the Falcons don't have a great record against the Colts. But that doesn't matter to me. It's 2019 and right now, I think the 2019 Falcons have more talent than the 2019 Colts. Especially without Luck and the current slate of injuries. Brissett is a career check down QB. He's not going to throw it deep. That means team speed, tackling, and discipline is how you stop this offense. DQ is going to make his money again. Their defense was a very conservative bunch last year. A ton of soft zones to keep things in front of them. They ran zone the most in the league last year. They are trying to run more man this year so they don't just get picked apart. They improved their CB talent on the outside, but I don't think it matches up yet. To get 10 wins on the season, you are required to win on the road. This match up should favor the Falcons doing that. 

When the Falcons are on Offense: Welp. Matt just had back to back games with multiple INTs for the first time since 2017. That's also his worst week two game under DQ in terms of rating. But he did what he needed to do to win that game. That's all that matters. We know he's not going to keep throwing multiple INTs. We also know he won't keep missing open TDs like he has three times in two games now. We saw first hand why Koetter is one of the best OCs in the league. He was attacking all night, but was also baiting Schwartz into making a fatal mistake and timed it perfectly. That's NFL level coaching. He got the offense on track and kept it wide open for Matt to work through it. I know there are complaints about the lack of running, but when you have a QB like Matt, you give him the latitude to exploit the defense how he sees fit. Matt was 6-6 on RPOs, called runs that Matt saw the pass being the better option and he was right. This game, I expect to see the running game get going. No Leonard is going to hurt if he can't go. He's their Debo and we saw just how different our defense was with and without a star LB roaming the middle. If the OL continues to gel and find their groove, they can handle this front. It's not of the caliber of the Eagles. The Chargers ran for 6.0 YPC and the Titans ran for 5.4 behind Henry. There should be a steady dose of rushing attack this week to show Freeman still has it and Ito is a good complement. Beyond that, we continue to see nobody can guard Julio. They had trouble with Keenan Allen. The Falcons offense is trotting out Julio, Ridley, Sanu, Hooper, Freeman on any given play. I just don't think the Colts are equipped for that fight. Especially not banged up. Not if Matt plays clean football for the first time this season. 

When the Falcons are on Defense: Get to Brissett. He's a very safe and conservative thrower. He's averaged 6.6 YPA for his short career. In 2017, Football Outsiders rated him the #1 deep ball thrower, classifying deep balls as anything beyond 15 yards. When you dig in, you see he only threw 60 of such passers, completing only 22 of such passes. He threw deep 8.7% of the time in 2017. It's not his game. In any way. Yes, he's "accurate" but he's not threatening. There is a difference. Long pass in two games is 25 yards. He's averaging under 4 air yards per pass. He's not a mobile neither like Wentz. So if they can collapse the pockets some, he'll get rid of it. The offense is based around safe, high completion throws to get the ball out of his hands fast and into the playmakers hands. The problem is they don't have many playmakers that teams are scared of. Hilton is a dog. But beyond that... Ebron's had a resurgence. Their strength is their OL. Nelson is going to body somebody. We know that. But Grady should be able to dominate Glowinski like he's done everybody else so far. The Colts are going to have to lean on their running game, which we are equipped to defend now. They've run the ball more than they've thrown it. That's what they'll look to do here. They've broken some big ones, so they Falcons will have to be disciplined. This will be a game to see not only if Davison, Grady, and Bailey can remain consistent in shutting down running games, but Vic, Takk, and Clayborn are consistent in their run fits. They do that and put this game in Brissett's hands, it should be fun to watch their defensive performance. I'm confident in this group after Sunday. 

Vegas Line: Vegas has the Colts as a 2.5 point home favorite, with the o/u set at 47. Take it for what you will. 

Prediction: I said last week this Falcons team had to show me who they were Sunday night and I'd believe it. Well, they showed their muscles, hitting hard, flying around, and making a clear statement that they aren't to be trifled with. Now, Matt Ryan is the last piece holding this offense back from glory. If him and the running game get back on track this week like I expect, I think they win handily. They should have hung 30+ on the Eagles. They Colts only gave up 30 points twice last year, so I don't see that happening Sunday. But if this defense steps up again, they should hold this offense under 20 points. If they allow over 200 yards passing, I'll be disappointed. This is a game set up for them to show off their team speed on defense, consistently clamping down on short passes and making the Colts frustrated. Play disciplined and physical in the run game and hold this Colts team for ransom. Also, it'll be my birthday on Sunday so they better bring home a W! RISE UP!!

[ya_boi_j 49,177]

Interested to see Brissett for a full game, hasn't looked that impressive on highlights

[vel 28,962]

Quote

How the Colts defense is thriving without elite talent

Quick, can you name three starters on the Colts defense? If you can’t, well, that’s precisely the reason why I’m writing this article. The job Matt Eberflus has done with Indianapolis’ defense this season has largely flown under the radar because they’re still a fringe top-10 unit. But when compared to expectations, it can be argued that no unit in the entire NFL has outperformed expectations as much.  

The Colts are fresh off a shutout of the Cowboys this past week – one of only five shutouts in the NFL this season. While we can debate the merits of how impressive that is given Dallas’ offense this season, what is impressive is that the combined cap hit of the Colts’ starters in the game is over $15 million less than what the Cowboys pay their offensive line. At a shade over $25 million for the Colts’ defensive starters, they have nearly the same cap hit as Andrew Luck alone ($24.4 million). Yet, even with that mix of young players and castoffs, the Colts defense is eighth in the NFL in terms of points per drive at 1.84.

How have they done it? It’s been a combination of talent recognition by General Manager Chris Ballard and a masterclass in coordinating from Matt Eberflus. The former is obvious, in players like rookie second-round pick Darius Leonard, who’s currently the fifth-highest graded linebacker in the NFL and a strong possibility for rookie of the year. The latter isn’t quite as evident from a highlight reel.

One of the core tenets of a good coach is adjusting their scheme to the talent on the roster, and not forcing talent into their scheme. An objective look at the Colts’ roster would tell you that they should not have a good pass defense with their corners. Their number one corner, Pierre Desir, has already been waived by three NFL teams since being drafted in 2014. Opposite Desir is Kenny Moore II, who was an undrafted free agent out of Valdosta State last season and played all of 382 snaps as a rookie.

Instead of letting each take their lumps against top wideouts, Eberflus has eschewed man coverage altogether this season. Indianapolis has lined up in man coverage on just 13% of their passing snaps this season, the second-lowest percentage in the NFL. Instead, they’ve turned into the poster boys for the ‘bend but don’t break’ mantra. Opposing offenses are completing an absurd 71.0% of pass attempts against the Colts this year. Only the hapless defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been worse. All of this, though, is by design.

If you’re an opposing quarterback traveling to Lucas Oil Fieldhouse, chances are this is what you’ll see when you line up behind center.

This isn’t hyperbole. Nearly every single snap, the Colts come out with walked up corners and split safeties. And nearly every single snap either one of the two safeties roles down into spot drop cover-3 or both safeties retreat into cover-2. That’s it. They barely blitz (19% of the time, the third-lowest rate in NFL), and employ the same two coverages virtually the entire game. In the open field, 32% of the time they’re running cover-2 (second-most in the NFL) and 37% of the time it is cover-3. It’s either this:

Or this:

The big secret to the league’s most overachieving defense? They run arguably the simplest scheme in the NFL.

However, the simplicity only applies to the defensive side of the ball. With the static look, opposing quarterbacks can’t get any sort of presnap read on the defense and the route concepts that beat cover-3 don’t often overlap with the concepts that beat cover-2. It’s also a defense that can’t be ‘schemed’ into busted coverage. There are no complex rules about how to pass off crossing routes or how to alleviate the mass confusion that’s caused by presnap motion. Each defender drops to their spot and has the freedom to watch the quarterback’s eyes as well as the routes developing in front of them. They’re easy to define roles that the defenders have executed hundreds of times before.

The result is a defense that plays as fast as anyone in the league. Whether it’s reacting to checkdowns or breaking on routes, the defenders are allowed to play off instinct rather than rules. It’s why Darius Leonard is second among all linebackers with 22 coverage stops, and why Kenny Moore is fourth among all corners with 17. It’s why teams have only attempted 44 deep passes on them this season, the fewest in the NFL. With defensive coordinators losing sleep all over the league trying to keep up with everything modern offenses are throwing at them, Eberflus has shown that simplicity can be the best option.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-how-the-colts-defense-is-thriving-without-elite-caliber-talent

Will be interesting to see if this is how they choose to defend the Falcons Sunday. They can't match up in man. It's just no feasible. This limits big plays but gives up a ton of yards underneath. It works on lesser QBs, but if the rush isn't getting home, Matt will light them up. 

You saw Mahomes do it to them, putting up 24 points in the first half on that group in the playoffs last year. 

[octoslash 13,627]

The most dangerous thing the Falcons will have to overcome is assuming the Colts game will be easier than the first two.  It won't.  

ps- I was in Atl-Fulco the day (85?) the 0-13 Colts came into town, overcame TWO double-digit deficits, blocked a Falcons punt and left town 1-13.  My point being, I'm always sick to see them going against the Birds because I know the absolute worst can happen. 

[vel 28,962]

13 minutes ago, ya_boi_j said:

Interested to see Brissett for a full game, hasn't looked that impressive on highlights

I'm not impressed by him. In the slightest. Too safe and conservative and really no threat to run. People who said the Colts wouldn't miss a beat with Luck gone were fools and ignorant to just how big a drop off this is. It's like going from Rodgers to Kizer in Green Bay. Luck overcame a ton of scheme limitations to make it work. Brissett doesn't. 

[FalconsIn2012 21,687]

Welp, if I had $50,000 to play with, I’d put it all on this game if the Colts are 2 point favorites...

[ya_boi_j 49,177]

1 minute ago, vel said:

I'm not impressed by him. In the slightest. Too safe and conservative and really no threat to run. People who said the Colts wouldn't miss a beat with Luck gone were fools and ignorant to just how big a drop off this is. It's like going from Rodgers to Kizer in Green Bay. Luck overcame a ton of scheme limitations to make it work. Brissett doesn't. 

That's an accurate comparison. After they gave him that money I wanted to see if he was really that dude. Like you, i'm not impressed at all

[droopy1592 7,071]

Yeah, I hope we don’t pull a Browns like last year 

[vel 28,962]

 

[vel 28,962]

 

[JD dirtybird21 14,883]

@vel, what is your actual thoughts on Dan Quinn's struggles against the AFC during his tenure? It's pretty bizarre.

[vel 28,962]

Just now, JD dirtybird21 said:

@vel, what is your actual thoughts on Dan Quinn's struggles against the AFC during his tenure? It's pretty bizarre.

I think it's just totally random. That Bills game for example. That incomplete pass that was a fumble was the difference between a win and loss. The Chargers game was so weird. The Dolphins game was as well. Losing to the Chiefs was one of the craziest ways to lose a game. 

I don't put much in it. Beat HOU, TEN, and JAX in 2015. Beat OAK and DEN in 16. Beat the Jets in 17. Putting any stock in the 2018 season games is looking for a reason to think they struggle vs AFC teams.

[JD dirtybird21 14,883]

I think it's random as well. But it's so weird that it always happens to happen against the AFC. Even in 2015, we lost to the Colts, at home, with Hasselbeck at QB. 

[vel 28,962]

26 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I think it's random as well. But it's so weird that it always happens to happen against the AFC. Even in 2015, we lost to the Colts, at home, with Hasselbeck at QB. 

Man don't remind me lol

But I think this is the beginning of a statement run. They can lay claim to the South and a deep NFC run while Brees is out and Cam is hurt. They've got the Colts, Titans, Texans, and Cardinals the next month. If they can build a 4-2 record through that, they are in great shape going into that Rams game. From there, it's Rams, Seahawks, and then the NFC South gauntlet. This is the easiest part of the schedule until December. They have to capitalize. 

[PeytonMannings Forehead 25,062]

5 hours ago, vel said:

However, the simplicity only applies to the defensive side of the ball. With the static look, opposing quarterbacks can’t get any sort of presnap read on the defense and the route concepts that beat cover-3 don’t often overlap with the concepts that beat cover-2. It’s also a defense that can’t be ‘schemed’ into busted coverage. There are no complex rules about how to pass off crossing routes or how to alleviate the mass confusion that’s caused by presnap motion. Each defender drops to their spot and has the freedom to watch the quarterback’s eyes as well as the routes developing in front of them. They’re easy to define roles that the defenders have executed hundreds of times before.

This is a pretty fascinating tidbit.  They're out there spot dropping in the modern NFL?  Wow.  I know Seattle used to change up and do a fair amount of this mixed with their over C-3 stuff, but the Colts have taken it to another level.

It so annoying playing teams like this, especially if they can get a pass rush going.  I remember a few years ago, Carson Wentz, right before they played a Sunday night game in Seattle talked about all the stuff they had the strip out of the gameplan that week because Seattle does one thing on defense, and there's only so much stuff that beats Cover-3.

You go in against these teams that run these complex schemes and all these different coverages, it's fun to gameplan for the week.  You'll have your Cover-4 beaters in, your Cover-6 beaters, Man-2 beaters, etc. You go in against a team like this, my goodness.  Playsheet must shrink up like a raisin.  

[Vandy 32,239]

Nice write-up Vel.

On 9/17/2019 at 1:27 PM, vel said:

Will be interesting to see if this is how they choose to defend the Falcons Sunday. They can't match up in man. It's just no feasible. This limits big plays but gives up a ton of yards underneath. It works on lesser QBs, but if the rush isn't getting home, Matt will light them up. 

You saw Mahomes do it to them, putting up 24 points in the first half on that group in the playoffs last year. 

Nice write-up Vel. Is this all your original stuff? Impressive. 

As you know, Hooker’s a good one back there at FS. 

The first key for me is Matt’s gotta quit throwing balls up for grabs. I know the OL has been getting crushed, but his play ......even with the OL issues.....has seemed off to me. 

[PeytonMannings Forehead 25,062]

Since we're going in against a Cover-2 team this week, thought it might be cool to take a brief look at some of the concepts we might see to attack them.

 

SMASH:  one of my favorite Cover-2 Beaters.  Wreaks havoc on that "honey hole" between the corners and the safety.  You have hitches on the outside and the inside receiver runs a 7-route to the sideline.  You can run it out of just about any formation.  I like the adding the RB running up the seam.  Not sure we'll see that one.

Very easy progression read for the QB.  He's going to pick a side of the field and read the cornerback on the outside hitch.  If the corner covers the hitch route, the QB will throw the 7.  There is no way the safety can get over there unless we're facing say Earl Thomas or someone like that.  If the corner sinks to the 7 route, then the hitch underneath is wide open.  You can wear a C-2 defense out all day with this, especially if you run it from spread which horizontally stretches the defense.

 

Flood - out of trips is another great one because it stretches them hi-lo.  Streak route occupies the safety, clearing out grass for the deep out which will come open behind the corner and the underneath hook player.  If the outside corner sinks with the streak or to cover the out route, then the flat is wide open.

[vel 28,962]

3 hours ago, PeytonMannings Forehead said:

This is a pretty fascinating tidbit.  They're out there spot dropping in the modern NFL?  Wow.  I know Seattle used to change up and do a fair amount of this mixed with their over C-3 stuff, but the Colts have taken it to another level.

It so annoying playing teams like this, especially if they can get a pass rush going.  I remember a few years ago, Carson Wentz, right before they played a Sunday night game in Seattle talked about all the stuff they had the strip out of the gameplan that week because Seattle does one thing on defense, and there's only so much stuff that beats Cover-3.

You go in against these teams that run these complex schemes and all these different coverages, it's fun to gameplan for the week.  You'll have your Cover-4 beaters in, your Cover-6 beaters, Man-2 beaters, etc. You go in against a team like this, my goodness.  Playsheet must shrink up like a raisin.  

Yep and it becomes the same coverage beaters over and over again. That's why the Seahawks were so good. Sherman and ET were geniuses and the rest were crazy athletes to make up the difference. You just showed it with Rico in that thread. If I know seams are coming, you can't beat me because I already know the play. 

The Colts have started playing more man with pressure looks, but I think they go conservative and make the Falcons drive the field. Going to be fun to see what Koetter comes up with. 

[vel 28,962]

3 hours ago, Vandy said:

Nice write-up Vel.

Nice write-up Vel. Is this all your original stuff? Impressive. 

As you know, Hooker’s a good one back there at FS. 

The key is Matt’s gotta quit throwing balls up for grabs. I know the OL has been getting crushed, but his play ......even with the OL issues.....has seemed off to me. 

The OP is always my own thoughts then I post from there and try to quote the articles. That article is PFF. 

Hooker is definitely a dog. Safeties like him usually give Matt trouble too. I think Matt has just been overly aggressive and getting back used to that play style. The one he threw to Darby was a "bad throw" only because he doesn't have that kind of arm. If that was Mahomes, it's a TD. He's got to remember his limitations. Once he settles back in, it's a wrap. 

[Vandy 32,239]

17 minutes ago, vel said:

The OP is always my own thoughts then I post from there and try to quote the articles. That article is PFF. 

Hooker is definitely a dog. Safeties like him usually give Matt trouble too. I think Matt has just been overly aggressive and getting back used to that play style. The one he threw to Darby was a "bad throw" only because he doesn't have that kind of arm. If that was Mahomes, it's a TD. He's got to remember his limitations. Once he settles back in, it's a wrap. 

Yeah, I understood that about the article, but you have a nice writing style. 

[vel 28,962]

7 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Yeah, I understood that about the article, but you have a nice writing style. 

Ah thanks man. I actually hate writing about anything else lol

[vel 28,962]

Totally random but...

The Chiefs lead the NFL in passing yards with 811 yards

The Colts are last in the NFL in passing yards with 294 yards

That's a massive spread. The Chiefs are on pace for a 6,480 passing yard season while the Colts are headed for 2,350 passing yards. That would be very wild. 

[Vandy 32,239]

10 hours ago, vel said:

Totally random but...

The Chiefs lead the NFL in passing yards with 811 yards

The Colts are last in the NFL in passing yards with 294 yards

That's a massive spread. The Chiefs are on pace for a 6,480 passing yard season while the Colts are headed for 2,350 passing yards. That would be very wild. 

Colts will try and do what Vikings did, which is run the ball behind their excellent OL. RB Mack is one of NFL’s best kept secrets when healthy. 

Hines can also be dangerous catching swing passes out of backfield. 

On the other side, if Leonard is out that will be huge. We’ve got to take advantage of that by running the ball ourselves. If we continue like we have in games 1 and 2 passing 2/3 of every down, their two excellent edge pass rushers Autry and Houston will eat our two OT’s lunch. 

Every game is gonna be a grind, especially on the road...key to this game to me is running the ball effectively as well as stopping the run. 

[FentayeJones 20,787]

 

[FentayeJones 20,787]