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Paying a QB $30 Million Is No Longer a Risky Bet—It’s a Bargain


FentayeJones
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27 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

And functionally, cheap QBs even good ones, arent exactly a long term proposition. Even if you find a Patrick Mahomes, at best you KNOW you have a Patrick Mahomes at some point in his first season. Now you're down to three years with a market rate 5th year option. But you're really looking to extend the dude after Y3 or 4....which limits your pure "we've got a good cheap QB lets spend all the money" to ~2-3 seasons, assuming you dont have any other burdensome contracts on the books. 

Yep. You'd have to start cutting guys or taking on older vets and losing some of your long term upside to fill in the gaps between you major contracts. Or draft really well. I'm glad TD has his head on straight with this. Build around pillars and keep drafting well.

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8 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

And functionally, cheap QBs even good ones, arent exactly a long term proposition. Even if you find a Patrick Mahomes, at best you KNOW you have a Patrick Mahomes at some point in his first season. Now you're down to three years with a market rate 5th year option. But you're really looking to extend the dude after Y3 or 4....which limits your pure "we've got a good cheap QB lets spend all the money" to ~2-3 seasons, assuming you dont have any other burdensome contracts on the books. 

But I think churning cheap QBs is still the right move until you find a Top 10 QB. No way I’d pay Dak Or Dalton or any QB big money unless I knew he could still bring me a ring. 

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5 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

But I think churning cheap QBs is still the right move until you find a Top 10 QB. No way I’d pay Dak Or Dalton or any QB big money unless I knew he could still bring me a ring. 

That's easy to say, but if you trade Dalton and go 5-11 for the next two years, you're fired as a GM.

Only GMs that could get away with that are Jones, because he owns the team and Belichick, because he owns New England.

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14 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I'd say what happened to you is that you guys hit ~three years worth of home run draft classes and then went ice cold. Which is 100% how the draft works for EVERYONE. 

Also, sometimes you guys make really poor philosophical decisions. 

Very poor. If not for Wilson’s magic, Seahawks would be a bottom tier team even with an average QB. 

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21 minutes ago, falconidae said:

That's easy to say, but if you trade Dalton and go 5-11 for the next two years, you're fired as a GM.

Only GMs that could get away with that are Jones, because he owns the team and Belichick, because he owns New England.

Oh for sure. This is all from the theoretical standpoint of team building. But NBA owners woke up to tanking for championship shot. Wouldn’t surprise me if NFL owners woke up to the same and stopped paying average to above average QBs 30M/yr

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16 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

Its a threshold issue, dude. Obviously you cant have a 220 lb OT. But once you hit the threshold, "size" doesnt tell you anything about a guy's likelihood to succeed. 

Combo metrics like SPARQ or Justis Mosqueda's Force Player model are more useful...but even those only use size to appropriately evaluate performance metrics like 40 times, 3 cones, shuttles, etc. 

In most cases, I like players to have size. It's not rocket science that a bigger player with the same speed, attitude, etc. will be the best options in most instances, DUDE...

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6 hours ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

Your making the point that I have said from the beginning.  Size matters...

Speed matters more they don’t talk speed to power for nothing.

Go ask Aaron Donald if size matters that guy plays at what 285 odd and plays against guys routinely 20-40 pounds bigger you think he worries about size.

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On 8/30/2019 at 5:03 AM, Vandy said:

Very poor. If not for Wilson’s magic, Seahawks would be a bottom tier team even with an average QB. 

I agree with both quotes. At the time we had our core and did not need to draft a lot. So they stepped up to the plate and accepted that challenge and drafted even less. What they needed to do is draft replacements in those areas that would be hurt due to the normal football standards of injuries. We failed with 3 head cases too....

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On ‎8‎/‎30‎/‎2019 at 1:27 PM, kiwifalcon said:

Speed matters more they don’t talk speed to power for nothing.

Go ask Aaron Donald if size matters that guy plays at what 285 odd and plays against guys routinely 20-40 pounds bigger you think he worries about size.

That's one guy.  He's an outlier.  Not many examples of smallish DT's that wreck an opponent's offense, therefore, speed doesn't mean "more".  

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26 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

That's one guy.  He's an outlier.  Not many examples of smallish DT's that wreck an opponent's offense, therefore, speed doesn't mean "more".  

The talk conversion of speed to power for all the time.I think speed is more important  than you think.AD isn’t an outlier we’ve got one in Grady Jarrett the guy makes a living on being explosive and quick.Geno Atkins is another these guys who aren’t 320 lb plus hulking slow monsters they rely on the mentioned.Kawaan Short another guy who relies on being quick and explosive in a small space.

You put 20-30 lbs on even a AD or any of the mentioned I bet these guys play goes south it’ll be like cutting Samson’s hair.

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11 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

The talk conversion of speed to power for all the time.I think speed is more important  than you think.AD isn’t an outlier we’ve got one in Grady Jarrett the guy makes a living on being explosive and quick.Geno Atkins is another these guys who aren’t 320 lb plus hulking slow monsters they rely on the mentioned.Kawaan Short another guy who relies on being quick and explosive in a small space.

You put 20-30 lbs on even a AD or any of the mentioned I bet these guys play goes south it’ll be like cutting Samson’s hair.

If you put small guys on the Defensive line, you are going to be in trouble.  Size matters.  Of all the guys you listed, only Donald is under 300 lbs., so yes, he is an outlier.  

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49 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

If you put small guys on the Defensive line, you are going to be in trouble.  Size matters.  Of all the guys you listed, only Donald is under 300 lbs., so yes, he is an outlier.  

Now 300 is big is it lol 300 is called undersized apparently but it’s big now ok then lol.Look we had 330 plus Paul Soliai for a year or 2 how’d that work.The thing is when I mention these guys there strength is literally converting there speed to power.

I mean we’ve had an undersized apparently dline for the last 2 years but Deion Jones has become one of thee best MLBers in the game.

Like I mentioned since you mentioned AD if you put him 20-30 lbs on him he’s probably not as effective because you’ve taken away his speed.I think pretty much the same for Jarrett Short and Atkins also.

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1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

Now 300 is big is it lol 300 is called undersized apparently but it’s big now ok then lol.Look we had 330 plus Paul Soliai for a year or 2 how’d that work.The thing is when I mention these guys there strength is literally converting there speed to power.

I mean we’ve had an undersized apparently dline for the last 2 years but Deion Jones has become one of thee best MLBers in the game.

Like I mentioned since you mentioned AD if you put him 20-30 lbs on him he’s probably not as effective because you’ve taken away his speed.I think pretty much the same for Jarrett Short and Atkins also.

Actually history has a part in this. We have seen where RBs try to bulk up and fail miserably. Then they draw the weight back down to running where they used to be and they excel back the way they were.

 

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1 hour ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

That's one guy.  He's an outlier.  Not many examples of smallish DT's that wreck an opponent's offense, therefore, speed doesn't mean "more".  

I mean...this is very much incorrect. 

In fact, this very player type is constantly undervalued at the NFL level, despite a pretty consistent track records of success. 

 

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6 minutes ago, kiwifalcon said:

Now 300 is big is it lol 300 is called undersized apparently but it’s big now ok then lol.Look we had 330 plus Paul Soliai for a year or 2 how’d that work.The thing is when I mention these guys there strength is literally converting there speed to power.

I mean we’ve had an undersized apparently dline for the last 2 years but Deion Jones has become one of thee best MLBers in the game.

Like I mentioned since you mentioned AD if you put him 20-30 lbs on him he’s probably not as effective because you’ve taken away his speed.I think pretty much the same for Jarrett Short and Atkins also.

Its crazy how much people are willing to cling to "old school" stuff like this regardless of what the league tells them or how the narratives dont match whats actually happening on the field. 

And thats before you even get to the idea that, by and large, run defense doesnt matter a whole lot relative to other aspects of defensive play. 

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1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

Now 300 is big is it lol 300 is called undersized apparently but it’s big now ok then lol.Look we had 330 plus Paul Soliai for a year or 2 how’d that work.The thing is when I mention these guys there strength is literally converting there speed to power.

I mean we’ve had an undersized apparently dline for the last 2 years but Deion Jones has become one of thee best MLBers in the game.

Like I mentioned since you mentioned AD if you put him 20-30 lbs on him he’s probably not as effective because you’ve taken away his speed.I think pretty much the same for Jarrett Short and Atkins also.

Short is 6'3 and 315 lbs.  He's not undersized.  Are there outliers? Of course, but size matters.  Fletcher Cox - 6'4   310 lbs., Chris Jones 6'6  310 lbs., DeForest Buckner 6'7"  295 lbs., 6'2  305 lbs., Damon Harrison 6'3  350 lbs.   Jarran Reed 6'3   306 lbs.

All of these guys are 300 + except for Buckner, and he is 6'7.  As I've said before, you can't teach size.  These guys are amongst the best DT's in football.  If they didn't have size, and they only had speed, they wouldn't be near the players.  

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7 minutes ago, SeahawkFan80 said:

Actually history has a part in this. We have seen where RBs try to bulk up and fail miserably. Then they draw the weight back down to running where they used to be and they excel back the way they were.

 

This is a pretty big oversell. RBs "bulking up" isnt something that happens all that frequently....at least not by design. 

Aside from the random spate of "Player X is in the best shape of his career" stories which run every summer without regard for position, I can't think of any notable examples of what you're talking about here. 

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2 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

Short is 6'3 and 315 lbs.  He's not undersized.  Are there outliers? Of course, but size matters.  Fletcher Cox - 6'4   310 lbs., Chris Jones 6'6  310 lbs., DeForest Buckner 6'7"  295 lbs., 6'2  305 lbs., Damon Harrison 6'3  350 lbs.   Jarran Reed 6'3   306 lbs.

All of these guys are 300 + except for Buckner, and he is 6'7.  As I've said before, you can't teach size.  These guys are amongst the best DT's in football.  If they didn't have size, and they only had speed, they wouldn't be near the players.  

Go and have a look what the main attribute for the players I mentioned were.

You mentioned size and dline if this were the case how does Deion Jones become one of the better MLBers in the game because he’s played behind an undersized dline his whole career.

You can build size for the most part you have speed or you don’t.Take it as you will.

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Just now, kiwifalcon said:

Go and have a look what the main attribute for the players I mentioned were.

You mentioned size and dline if this were the case how does Deion Jones become one of the better MLBers in the game because he’s played behind an undersized dline his whole career.

You can build size for the most part you have speed or you don’t.Take it as you will.

You can't keep mentioning one small LB, and claim that you are right and that I am wrong.  It doesn't work that way.  Is it important to be fast? 100%, but it's not MORE important to be fast than have size. 

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2 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

This is a pretty big oversell. RBs "bulking up" isnt something that happens all that frequently....at least not by design. 

Aside from the random spate of "Player X is in the best shape of his career" stories which run every summer without regard for position, I can't think of any notable examples of what you're talking about here. 

Eddy Lacey....tried to bulk up and failed. got back down to weight and success for a while until China buffet was found and then they went out of business in that location because of him...he hehe. RW tried to bulk up a bit and lost some speed and finesse. Dropped back to running weight and back to success. Last 3 years experience.

 

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