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Paying a QB $30 Million Is No Longer a Risky Bet—It’s a Bargain


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1 hour ago, athell said:

QBs are highly paid because they are one of the most, if not the most, important positions in all of sports.  They are getting paid more and more because this is moving to a passing league, with rules protecting the passer.  You don't see 42 and 40 year old running backs, you don't even see mid to late 30s year old running backs, but that will become the new norm for the top end QBs.

Fact is the RB position is mostly devalued right now because their shelf life just isn't long like it is with most QBs.  There is a reason RBBC is a thing now and it's because you can't have just 1 RB and expect to be successful over the long haul anymore.

RBs aren't the entertainers anymore.  QBs and WRs are.  People don't want to see 3 yards and a cloud of dust, they want to see Tyreek Hill burning folks for 50 yard bombs.  Just because RBs are still valuable in fantasy football really means nothing to the actual sport of football.  RBs and WRs always rule the early rounds in FFL, that has not changed and it's because they are the most consistent point scorers.

RB value (or lack thereof) has little to do with their shelf life and a whole lot to do with their fungible nature.

QBs are the exact opposite.  

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3 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

RB value (or lack thereof) has little to do with their shelf life and a whole lot to do with their fungible nature.

QBs are the exact opposite.  

Agree, though I would say part of their shelf life has a lot to do with their fungible nature...

If teams could count on a single RB for 12 years the position wouldn't be nearly as fungible...

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5 hours ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

I don't agree.  Happens sure, but I have always believed in size.  Having small S, LB', DT's, etc.'s who are fast will work with some guys, but I wouldn't make a habit of having smallish guys.

Speed you can’t teach speed that’s the key in this days NFL size you can build speed you can’t teach it.

I mean have a look at Julio Jones for example fast & agile with size it’s lethal.

I mean who’d you have Deion Jones or Reggie Ragland.

We had an undersized Oline in 2016 and put up the 8th best offense in NFL history.

Size can be important but for me in any sport speed deployed correctly for me is game over.

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My problem with our team is that we have typically focused on fast and agile lineman and linebackers. The middle of our defense has lacked size up front for most of Quinn's time here. We had a year with Poe, but I like to see a super-strong, athletic NT, paired with a big-framed athletic base end to build a line around.

It's why my ideal draft was Dexter Lawrence and Montez Sweat in the first, but we have at least secured Tyler Davidson who should help our cause there.

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1 hour ago, kiwifalcon said:

Speed you can’t teach speed that’s the key in this days NFL size you can build speed you can’t teach it.

I mean have a look at Julio Jones for example fast & agile with size it’s lethal.

I mean who’d you have Deion Jones or Reggie Ragland.

We had an undersized Oline in 2016 and put up the 8th best offense in NFL history.

Size can be important but for me in any sport speed deployed correctly for me is game over.

You can't use Julio Jones as your example and say that size doesn't matter.  There are a million fast, diminutive receivers that aren't anywhere near Julio.  Pointing out one small line is also not a good example.  The majority of great lineman have size, and no, you can't teach size.  You can help guys maximize their size potential, but you can't teach the fact that they have the ability to grow bigger. 

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40 minutes ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

You can't use Julio Jones as your example and say that size doesn't matter.  There are a million fast, diminutive receivers that aren't anywhere near Julio.  Pointing out one small line is also not a good example.  The majority of great lineman have size, and no, you can't teach size.  You can help guys maximize their size potential, but you can't teach the fact that they have the ability to grow bigger. 

I can because that’s Julios difference his speed and agility.Like I mentioned speed can’t be taught go have a look at all the good ones they for the most part all had it.

As for olineman if you want to run a certain scheme you need a certain type of linemen.Its no use having a big guy who can’t move or get to the second level in a ZBS.

The game is continually changing speed is speed if you got it either side of the ball in today’s nfl your ahead of the curve.

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1 hour ago, FalconAge said:

My problem with our team is that we have typically focused on fast and agile lineman and linebackers. The middle of our defense has lacked size up front for most of Quinn's time here. We had a year with Poe, but I like to see a super-strong, athletic NT, paired with a big-framed athletic base end to build a line around.

It's why my ideal draft was Dexter Lawrence and Montez Sweat in the first, but we have at least secured Tyler Davidson who should help our cause there.

I liked me some Dex aswell but for me I’m taking speed the right attitude over size all day.

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4 hours ago, FalconAge said:

My problem with our team is that we have typically focused on fast and agile lineman and linebackers. The middle of our defense has lacked size up front for most of Quinn's time here. We had a year with Poe, but I like to see a super-strong, athletic NT, paired with a big-framed athletic base end to build a line around.

It's why my ideal draft was Dexter Lawrence and Montez Sweat in the first, but we have at least secured Tyler Davidson who should help our cause there.

I think Davison is why we didn’t grab Lawrence.

Sweat would have been ideal future replacement of Beasley, plus fits the mold of what we’re talking about. Athletically fast & lean & bad ***.

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2 hours ago, kiwifalcon said:

I can because that’s Julios difference his speed and agility.Like I mentioned speed can’t be taught go have a look at all the good ones they for the most part all had it.

As for olineman if you want to run a certain scheme you need a certain type of linemen.Its no use having a big guy who can’t move or get to the second level in a ZBS.

The game is continually changing speed is speed if you got it either side of the ball in today’s nfl your ahead of the curve.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/sports/football/nfl-offenses-are-changing-so-some-offensive-linemen-are-shrinking.amp.html

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40 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Exactly like the article mentions if you want to use tempo you need fitter guys and guys who can move.For guys 320 plus this becomes an issue much the same with dlineman.0 point in having a bigger guy if he’s gassed after a series let alone back to backs and no huddle high tempo offenses.

As good as size soundsit can be a weakness aswell.

But alas if fans are tunnel visioned oh well.

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15 hours ago, kiwifalcon said:

I can because that’s Julios difference his speed and agility.Like I mentioned speed can’t be taught go have a look at all the good ones they for the most part all had it.

As for olineman if you want to run a certain scheme you need a certain type of linemen.Its no use having a big guy who can’t move or get to the second level in a ZBS.

The game is continually changing speed is speed if you got it either side of the ball in today’s nfl your ahead of the curve.

Julio's size does matter, and most good lineman have good size.  Size 100% matters.  Are there outliers, of course, but I'll take my chances with size.

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16 hours ago, Stray Dog THA GAWD said:

And now the defense will demand their paydays.  Everybody wins!

That is what happened to us. We drafted to backfill spots and they got good and wanted a paycheck. Now the Offense is back on the dockette needing to get paid. Then in 3 years the Defense again. It is a cycle.

 

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5 hours ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

Julio's size does matter, and most good lineman have good size.  Size 100% matters.  Are there outliers, of course, but I'll take my chances with size.

Of course size matters but it’s not the be all and end all.

Julios point of difference for me is his speed and agility how many at that size have that.

Speed and the right attitude over size all day.

 

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6 hours ago, Boise Falcon Fan said:

Julio's size does matter, and most good lineman have good size.  Size 100% matters.  Are there outliers, of course, but I'll take my chances with size.

Its a threshold issue, dude. Obviously you cant have a 220 lb OT. But once you hit the threshold, "size" doesnt tell you anything about a guy's likelihood to succeed. 

Combo metrics like SPARQ or Justis Mosqueda's Force Player model are more useful...but even those only use size to appropriately evaluate performance metrics like 40 times, 3 cones, shuttles, etc. 

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2 hours ago, SeahawkFan80 said:

That is what happened to us. We drafted to backfill spots and they got good and wanted a paycheck. Now the Offense is back on the dockette needing to get paid. Then in 3 years the Defense again. It is a cycle.

 

I'd say what happened to you is that you guys hit ~three years worth of home run draft classes and then went ice cold. Which is 100% how the draft works for EVERYONE. 

Also, sometimes you guys make really poor philosophical decisions. 

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18 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

Cheap QBs are a wonderful thing for a team to have. But HOF QBs are better. 

And functionally, cheap QBs even good ones, arent exactly a long term proposition. Even if you find a Patrick Mahomes, at best you KNOW you have a Patrick Mahomes at some point in his first season. Now you're down to three years with a market rate 5th year option. But you're really looking to extend the dude after Y3 or 4....which limits your pure "we've got a good cheap QB lets spend all the money" to ~2-3 seasons, assuming you dont have any other burdensome contracts on the books. 

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