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PFF Rankings: NFL starting quarterback rankings for 2019


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PFF’s quarterback rankings are based on grading every player on every play and tapping into multiple years of data to project future performance. We go beyond just last season’s performances, and the grading works to isolate each quarterback’s performance from that of his supporting cast, making for more effective projections. The rankings are then tiered in order to gauge where each player stands and also highlight that the difference between No. 14 and No. 16, for example, is negligible. The NFL is in a rich time for middle-class signal-callers, and that’s why so many land in Tier 3. 
Tier 1: High-end quarterbacks who can carry a team. They have high percentages of positively graded plays while limiting negatively graded throws, and they’re most likely to achieve high-end passing production no matter what the supporting cast looks like in a given year.
1. Tom Brady

2. Drew Brees

3. Patrick Mahomes

Tier 2: Quarterbacks who can move the chains and take care of the ball. More likely to elevate teammates and achieve top-end production, even with lesser supporting casts.

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Andrew Luck

6. Russel Wilson

7. MATT RYANATLANTA FALCONS

The last four years of Ryan’s career are a fascinating story of grades and stats not matching up. The 2015 and 2017 seasons saw Ryan grade better than his numbers would indicate, while 2016’s MVP campaign and 2018 saw Ryan post gaudy numbers that were elevated by some interception luck and fantastic play by his playmakers and play-callers (particularly 2016). When you add it all up, Ryan has six top-10 finishes in PFF grade in his 10 years in the league, and he consistently throws the ball accurately down the field. Last season saw Ryan struggle when he left the friendly confines of dome stadiums, but he doesn’t play an outdoor game until November this season, so expect another big year for the stat sheet.

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-rankings-nfl-starting-quarterback-rankings-for-2019

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https://www.profootballnetwork.com/atlanta-falcons-matt-ryan-elite-qb/

Compared to other quarterbacks, Ryan was largely responsible for his own success

But statistical success doesn’t necessarily represent a player’s individual skill level. Maybe you think that Ryan’s statistics are the product of his offensive system, or are overly influenced by the fact that he gets to throw to Julio Jones, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. In fact, the Atlanta Falcons have, arguably, the best wide receiver trio in the NFL with Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu.

And while those are certainly factors in his success, it once again unfairly diminishes the things that Ryan has accomplished during his Atlanta Falcons career to focus solely on them. It is important to examine how he played in a vacuum, ignoring those mitigating factors.

The Pro Football Network Offensive Share Metric (OSM) grades allow us to examine Ryan’s performance in this way. The system takes into account only factors that an individual player could control, such as air yards or completion probability. And if you look purely at his OSM grades, Matt Ryan was arguably the best player in the NFL over the last three seasons. I know that sounds hyperbolic, but it really isn’t.

Last season, Ryan had the fourth-best grade of any quarterback with 30.3. That is already an excellent grade, one that implies that, relative to other quarterbacks in the NFL, he was critical to the success of his offense last season. However, Ryan’s 2018 grade was actually lower than how he scored in prior seasons.

Matt Ryan’s 2016 and 2017 OSM grades were unbelievable

In 2017, a relatively poor year for Ryan statistically, he performed even better on this metric. “Even better” is a bit of an understatement though, since his 2017 grade was 50.48, a full 20 points higher than last season, and around 14 points higher than the highest grade received by any quarterback in 2018. And during his 2016 MVP season, he did even better, receiving the completely ludicrous grade of 58.38.

For some context, that is the highest grade received by any player from 2016-2018, regardless of position. That is particularly impressive because quarterback grades tend to be lower on average. More than any other player during that three-year period, Ryan was able to maximize every opportunity presented to him. While this does not necessarily indicate that he was the best player in the NFL at any given time, it does show somewhat definitively that Ryan’s statistics were largely of his own making.

It is time to stop underrating Matt Ryan

The goal of this article is not to say that Ryan is the best quarterback in the NFL. But I think he deserves to be in that conversation, and he almost never is. As I said at the beginning of this article, the way people view him is somewhat confusing.

They don’t think he is on the same level as other supposed “good-not-great” quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, but at the same time, they are unwilling to put him in the same category as players like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Maybe if the Atlanta Falcons had held on to their 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI Ryan would be classified as elite. Maybe not.

It almost seems as though he is in a tier of his own, somewhere in between “pretty good” and “elite.”  But when you take a closer look, it rapidly becomes apparent just how good he has been in recent years. And I think it’s high time that he gets the recognition he deserves.

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I saw an article that predicted that Andrew Luck was one of the most likely players to break through in 2019. This dude has been considered a top 5 QB since he arrived in 2011 in spite of being a walking triage ward. How do you "break through" in your ninth season, especially after you are a perennial elite player?

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14 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Honest QB Grade Since 2016:

1.  Ryan

2.  Brady

3.  Brees

4.  Mahomes (small sample size, I know)

5.  Rodgers

6.  Rivers

7.  Little Bennie

LoL don’t get ahead of yourself here. Half the board is hugging TB12s nuts... even thought he was meh last year. 

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8 minutes ago, JayOzOne said:

I saw an article that predicted that Andrew Luck was one of the most likely players to break through in 2019. This dude has been considered a top 5 QB since he arrived in 2011 in spite of being a walking triage ward. How do you "break through" in your ninth season, especially after you are a perennial elite player?

I don’t get it on Luck either...Career passer rating < 90

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Dont need stats or articles to confirm what I already know....MR2 has been the best QB in the league since 2016. Its why im standing by my prediction that the 2019 falcons, barring injuries will have a historic offense. MR2 is too good at this point and has too many weapons. Only a complete failure along the O-line and injury could derail this offense. Bank it

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"The last four years of Ryan’s career are a fascinating story of grades and stats not matching up." Naah, more like "The last 4 years we've decided Ryan's grade preseason and then jiggered the "stats" to make them agree with our take.

Numbers look good? "It's Ridley and Jones making great catches, not that the passes were thrown exactly where they needed to be." Ignore the extreme pressure Ryan was under because the OLine got blown up yet again, did you see how it wasn't a perfect spiral and the WR had to comeback for the ball? [on a comeback route]"

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I can't put Luck that high on the list. He is a really good QB who is borderline top tier if he stays healthy, and that is his biggest problem.

 

Luck has already started off the preseason injured. He can't even practice right now and reports are that he may not be ready week 1 of the regular season. Not a good sign at all.

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6 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

I can't put Luck that high on the list. He is a really good QB who is borderline top tier if he stays healthy, and that is his biggest problem.

 

Luck has already started off the preseason injured. He can't even practice right now and reports are that he may not be ready week 1 of the regular season. Not a good sign at all.

If Luck wasn't ready to play by the 3rd week of the season, I'd be disappointed, almost heartbroken. If he then healed up in time to inflict losses on the rest of the NFCS? Well, them's the breaks.

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4 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/atlanta-falcons-matt-ryan-elite-qb/

Compared to other quarterbacks, Ryan was largely responsible for his own success

But statistical success doesn’t necessarily represent a player’s individual skill level. Maybe you think that Ryan’s statistics are the product of his offensive system, or are overly influenced by the fact that he gets to throw to Julio Jones, one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. In fact, the Atlanta Falcons have, arguably, the best wide receiver trio in the NFL with Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu.

And while those are certainly factors in his success, it once again unfairly diminishes the things that Ryan has accomplished during his Atlanta Falcons career to focus solely on them. It is important to examine how he played in a vacuum, ignoring those mitigating factors.

The Pro Football Network Offensive Share Metric (OSM) grades allow us to examine Ryan’s performance in this way. The system takes into account only factors that an individual player could control, such as air yards or completion probability. And if you look purely at his OSM grades, Matt Ryan was arguably the best player in the NFL over the last three seasons. I know that sounds hyperbolic, but it really isn’t.

Last season, Ryan had the fourth-best grade of any quarterback with 30.3. That is already an excellent grade, one that implies that, relative to other quarterbacks in the NFL, he was critical to the success of his offense last season. However, Ryan’s 2018 grade was actually lower than how he scored in prior seasons.

Matt Ryan’s 2016 and 2017 OSM grades were unbelievable

In 2017, a relatively poor year for Ryan statistically, he performed even better on this metric. “Even better” is a bit of an understatement though, since his 2017 grade was 50.48, a full 20 points higher than last season, and around 14 points higher than the highest grade received by any quarterback in 2018. And during his 2016 MVP season, he did even better, receiving the completely ludicrous grade of 58.38.

For some context, that is the highest grade received by any player from 2016-2018, regardless of position. That is particularly impressive because quarterback grades tend to be lower on average. More than any other player during that three-year period, Ryan was able to maximize every opportunity presented to him. While this does not necessarily indicate that he was the best player in the NFL at any given time, it does show somewhat definitively that Ryan’s statistics were largely of his own making.

It is time to stop underrating Matt Ryan

The goal of this article is not to say that Ryan is the best quarterback in the NFL. But I think he deserves to be in that conversation, and he almost never is. As I said at the beginning of this article, the way people view him is somewhat confusing.

They don’t think he is on the same level as other supposed “good-not-great” quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, but at the same time, they are unwilling to put him in the same category as players like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Maybe if the Atlanta Falcons had held on to their 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI Ryan would be classified as elite. Maybe not.

It almost seems as though he is in a tier of his own, somewhere in between “pretty good” and “elite.”  But when you take a closer look, it rapidly becomes apparent just how good he has been in recent years. And I think it’s high time that he gets the recognition he deserves.

Give the Elite Falcons weapons and the Falcons OL to Tyrod Taylor, he would have thrown 295 TD in last 3 years. Ryan took 11 years for 295 TD. Ryan is just a game manager and not even top 60 player in NFL.

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