fuego Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 As passing numbers continue to inflate across the NFL, it's becoming more and more difficult to correctly assess even basic measurements of pass production. A 65% completion rate sounds exceptional, right? Well, 18 different quarterbacks exceeded that benchmark over 10 or more starts in 2018. And as quarterbacks such as Jared Goff and Ryan Fitzpatrick seem to transform into completely different players with new coaches and in new situations, it's becoming clear that the traditional measurements fall far short in their mission to accurately and comprehensively identify the best and worst quarterbacks. ESPN Stats & Information offers a different approach to evaluation, calculating the expected points added by every play based on its start and end state in terms of factors such as down and distance, field position and time remaining. Successful and unsuccessful plays come from the combined efforts of every player on offense and defense as well as coaches, but the EPA can be stretched to evaluate quarterbacks by comparing the EPA totals of plays in which they pass or run the ball with the EPA totals of plays without their involvement -- typically runs, defensive plays, and special-teams plays. That creates an imperfect evaluation because quarterbacks do not have full control over the success or failure of their attempts, but it does a much better job of divorcing a quarterback's responsibilities from those of his supporting cast than either basic passing statistics or won-lost records could hope to do. By comparing the total EPA of each quarterback's attempts to that of his team's running game, defense and special teams, we have identified the top 10 and bottom 10 signal-callers in added value for 2018. Note that this is different from the most valuable quarterbacks by total value. For example, Tom Brady is seventh in QB EPA (+97.6), but he doesn't make our list because the rest of the Patriots' roster also had plenty of value by expected points added. Read through our various categories of passers, or skip ahead to the metric of your choice here: Most valuable | Least valuableMost accurate | Least accurateMost aggressive | Least aggressive Note: We included only quarterbacks who made 10 or more starts in 2018, which excluded QBs from three teams (the 49ers, Buccaneers and Ravens). Most valuable 2. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons QB EPA: +123.5 (4th)Team EPA: -131.9 (28th)QB-added value: +255.4 Things become much more intriguing in second place, where Ryan takes the nod despite leading a Falcons team to a 7-9 record. His placement illustrates the importance of a relative value ranking. The Falcons were already a bottom-third defense in 2017 that got much worse last season after quickly losing their two best defensive players -- Deion Jones and Keanu Neal -- to foot and knee injuries, respectively, that put them on injured reserve. Without them, the Falcons' defense fell to second worst in football. Meanwhile, Ryan's offense quickly lost one of its best players, with running back Devonta Freeman landing on injured reserve in early October. All the Falcons could do was lean on Ryan, and with defenses imbalanced to stop his passing game, Ryan quietly put up a season with a 69.4% completion rate, 4,924 passing yards and a 5-1 ratio in touchdowns (35) to interceptions (7) that was nearly identical to his production from his 2016 MVP season. Ryan carried a team that otherwise would have competed for the No. 1 draft pick to a respectable finish, and he deserves his silver medal in these rankings. 1. Mahomes 2. Ryan 3. Roethlisberger 4. Rodgers 5. Brees 6. Carr 7. Dalton 8. Manning 9. Rivers 10. Newton Most accurate 5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons C%+: +3.5% Here's our first quarterback on the accuracy side who was better on short passes. Ryan completed an above-average number of passes compared to his expected rate on deep balls, but he ranked just 10th in receiving plus-minus. Ryan's short passes created the fourth-most receiving plus-minus value in the NFL. For those worried about the shift back to Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator, Ryan still put up a solid +1.8% C%+ last time Koetter was on staff in 2014. Ryan threw more passes to his left than any other quarterback last season and completed 73.2% of them against an expected rate of 68.3%. 1. Brees 2. Cousins 3. Wilson 4. Watson 5. Ryan 6. Carr 7. Fitzpatrick 8. Goff 9. Wentz 10 Mariota https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/27406042/the-best-worst-nfl-qbs-everything#magg HASHBROWN3, Tim Mazetti, dardan and 9 others 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sun Tzu 7 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 “The Falcons were already a bottom-third defense in 2017 that got much worse last season after quickly losing their two best defensive players” Bottom third in 2017. I thought the 2017 defense wasn’t as good as people around here would like to think but bottom-third? ****. JDaveG, falcons007, Ergo Proxy and 6 others 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Mazetti Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 And all this without no-look passes. Yes I will beat it to death. Whats up Mahomes? You are not Matt Ryan. PokerSteve, papachaz, gazoo and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Francis York Morgan Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 27 minutes ago, Tim Mazetti said: And all this without no-look passes. Yes I will beat it to death. Whats up Mahomes? You are not Matt Ryan. Mahomes is a stud. Really don't get knocking players to prop ours up. NYCFalc, Spts1, Vandy and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Mazetti Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Just now, Francis York Morgan said: Machines is a stud. Really don't get knocking players to prop ours up Hide and watch. Ergo Proxy, gazoo and nomak 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MilleniumFalcon Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Sun Tzu 7 said: “The Falcons were already a bottom-third defense in 2017 that got much worse last season after quickly losing their two best defensive players” Bottom third in 2017. I thought the 2017 defense wasn’t as good as people around here would like to think but bottom-third? ****. Bottom third according to DVOA Sun Tzu 7, Ovie_Lover, Ergo Proxy and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falcons007 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Sun Tzu 7 said: “The Falcons were already a bottom-third defense in 2017 that got much worse last season after quickly losing their two best defensive players” Bottom third in 2017. I thought the 2017 defense wasn’t as good as people around here would like to think but bottom-third? ****. It was bottom 3rd in DVOA. Sun Tzu 7, Ovie_Lover, Drew4719 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falcons007 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 If the OL stays healthy Ryan may hit 40-45 TD this season. Ergo Proxy, VTCrunkler and Tim Mazetti 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shockerfalcon Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 4 hours ago, falcons007 said: If the OL stays healthy Ryan may hit 40-45 TD this season. If Ridley and Hooper makes the leaps some are expecting add 5-10 more to that total falcons007 and Ergo Proxy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stray Dog THA GAWD Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 100 TD's confirmed! likeriver, VTCrunkler, Ergo Proxy and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
droopy1592 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 44TD, 8int, 69%, 4974 yards Ergo Proxy, Boise Falcon Fan and quickzero 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 12 hours ago, Sun Tzu 7 said: “The Falcons were already a bottom-third defense in 2017 that got much worse last season after quickly losing their two best defensive players” Bottom third in 2017. I thought the 2017 defense wasn’t as good as people around here would like to think but bottom-third? ****. Bottom third is correct. Now....they played closer to a Top 10 unit over the last ~6 weeks and into the playoffs. But that was after starting the first 2/3 of the season playing like a bottom quartile defense. In three consecutive seasons the defense has improved their play significantly over the second half of the season. I have no idea why it keeps happening that way but it does keep happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sun Tzu 7 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 minute ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said: Bottom third is correct. Now....they played closer to a Top 10 unit over the last ~6 weeks and into the playoffs. But that was after starting the first 2/3 of the season playing like a bottom quartile defense. In three consecutive seasons the defense has improved their play significantly over the second half of the season. I have no idea why it keeps happening that way but it does keep happening. Defense has always started slowly under Quinn with the Falcons. At this point we can expect it to happen again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HASHBROWN3 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 It’s unreal just how stupid our small group of MR haters look with each passing year. I’m giggling a little bit right now even. NeonDeion, Ovie_Lover, Tim Mazetti and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falcons007 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Stray Dog THA GAWD said: 100 TD's confirmed! 80 TD in regular season and 20 TD in post season. Ergo Proxy and Stray Dog THA GAWD 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Statick Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 As much as the Ryan haters love to b*tch, whine and moan about what they perceive to be as to where he's lacking, the overriding fact is that Ryan makes this team go and we're pretty much ****** without him as our QB. VTCrunkler, Ergo Proxy, HASHBROWN3 and 4 others 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HASHBROWN3 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Let’s get that D kicked in and we’re off to the races! Tim Mazetti and Ergo Proxy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ergo Proxy Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Nice! ATLSlobberKnockers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific_Falcon Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 13 hours ago, Tim Mazetti said: Hide and watch. I'm kind of partial to my version: stay low and keep moving. Tim Mazetti 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pacific_Falcon Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Statick said: As much as the Ryan haters love to b*tch, whine and moan about what they perceive to be as to where he's lacking, the overriding fact is that Ryan makes this team go and we're pretty much ****** without him as our QB. If only he could run faster... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum The Hormone Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 Butbut but Matt Ryan has a noodle arm Ergo Proxy, falcons007 and HASHBROWN3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
likeriver Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 5 hours ago, droopy1592 said: 44TD, 8int, 69%, 4974 yards Brush just give him the 5k we all know it's coming sooner or later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snafu Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 But he doesn't hit recievers in stride 55 yards down field while facing unrelenting pressure on 75% of his passes. He's a bum. /purple Tim Mazetti and ATLskinjob 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
droopy1592 Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 1 hour ago, likeriver said: Brush just give him the 5k we all know it's coming sooner or later Like Brees recently, and even Ryan in 2016, if the run game and defense are working we will be pulling Ryan in 3rd quarters and the run game will eat into his production. I’m thinking 4700-4900 yards. likeriver and Ergo Proxy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim Mazetti Posted August 20, 2019 Share Posted August 20, 2019 4 hours ago, Pacific_Falcon said: I'm kind of partial to my version: stay low and keep moving. Infantry, indeed. Run to the gun fire. Your Buds need you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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