Falconsfan567

Preseason Wins Are Meaningless

73 posts in this topic

29 minutes ago, mqg96 said:

Teams who go to Super Bowls or win it usually go 2-2 or 3-1 in the preseason, those are teams who played their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th stringers equally and barely their 1st stringers and still did well in the preseason with good depth. Teams who go 0-4 or 1-3 in the preseason usually didn't have have good depth behind them or had questionable coaching decisions/issues. Teams who go 4-0 in the preseason don't do well because they probably played their 1st or 2nd stringers for the majority of the preseason, they tried really hard to win in the preseason with all they had not knowing that they were really going to be mediocre coming into the regular season, hence why the 2008 Lions or 2017 Browns went winless the whole year. You can't compare an 0-4 preseason team who played almost everybody on their roster to a 4-0 preseason team who stuck with their 1st or 2nd stringers most of the time. 

The Patriots first preseason win was 31-3 over the Lions, not surprised.....

Last year in the regular season the Lions beat the Patriots 34-10 or something like that.

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16 minutes ago, falconidae said:

So, you realize that 3 teams that went winless in the preseason went to the super bowl and one team won it, right?

That multiple teams with 0fors also had playoff runs?

He would have if he had looked at the OP.

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7 hours ago, BoomGoesTheDynamite said:

Yeah Miami.

The team that kept some of their 1st and 2nd against our 3rd and 4th for half the game on a crappy wet field with such obvious bias officiating Stevie Wonder would have seen it.

4 real

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2 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Last year in the regular season the Lions beat the Patriots 34-10 or something like that.

Yeah it was 26-10 I believe. What’s criminally insane is that ALL of the Patriots losses last year were to teams who missed the playoffs. Complete BS that none of the teams who beat the Patriots got anything out of the win.

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We still blow it in the 4th quarter.  LoL whether in the preseason... regular season or in the superbowl.  You would think that would be what we work on most.  How would our seasons look if we put effort in evaluating and correcting our 4th quarter deficiency. What would our record be without all those blown leads in the 4th quarter.    All our players keep getting older.  So am I.  We still make the same tired mistakes and then make the excuse that preseason is not about winning.  So I guess we will fix our 4th quarter pitiful performances in regular season again when it counts.  Yeah that works well.  I watch this play out every year and hear the same tired arguments to keep the status quo in preseason

1966 to present.... no rings.  And the two chances we had were pitiful.  Both losses were because of players that were evaluated.  Hats off to ER and JM

Now we figure losing in the 4th quarter is acceptable... cause its preseason. :rolleyes:

You all can comfort me with excuses when its regular season.  

Yeah I know.... DQ does not care its preseason...  

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11 minutes ago, Realsurfin said:

BLah BLah BLah

Yeah I know.... DQ does not care its preseason...  

So, why do  you think DQ doesn't care about winning in the preseason?

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26 minutes ago, Realsurfin said:

We still blow it in the 4th quarter.  LoL whether in the preseason... regular season or in the superbowl.  You would think that would be what we work on most.  How would our seasons look if we put effort in evaluating and correcting our 4th quarter deficiency. What would our record be without all those blown leads in the 4th quarter.    All our players keep getting older.  So am I.  We still make the same tired mistakes and then make the excuse that preseason is not about winning.  So I guess we will fix our 4th quarter pitiful performances in regular season again when it counts.  Yeah that works well.  I watch this play out every year and hear the same tired arguments to keep the status quo in preseason

1966 to present.... no rings.  And the two chances we had were pitiful.  Both losses were because of players that were evaluated.  Hats off to ER and JM

Now we figure losing in the 4th quarter is acceptable... cause its preseason. :rolleyes:

You all can comfort me with excuses when its regular season.  

Yeah I know.... DQ does not care its preseason...  

You might have a point...IF ANY OF THE PLAYERS INVOLVED WERE ON THE TEAM A MONTH FROM NOW.  WHICH THEY WON'T BE.

Sheesh.

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18 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

So many folks on this message board love to talk about how important preseason wins are when there is specific proof that win/loss record is completely meaningless. Here's all the proof you need that preseason win/loss record is pointless.

UNDEFEATED PRESEASON

  1. 2017 Ravens = 9-7
  2. 2017 Browns = 0-16
  3. 2017 Broncos = 5-11
  4. 2017 Seahawks = 9-7
  5. 2016 Ravens = 8-8
  6. 2016 Vikings = 8-8
  7. 2016 Eagles = 7-9
  8. 2015 Chiefs = 11-5
  9. 2014 Ravens = 10-6
  10. 2014 Vikings = 7-9
  11. 2014 Giants = 6-10
  12. 2013 Seahawks = 13-3
  13. 2013 Redskins = 3-13
  14. 2012 Seahawks = 11-5
  15. 2012 Redskins = 4-12
  16. 2011 Lions = 10-6
  17. 2011 Rams = 2-14
  18. 2010 49ers = 5-10
  19. 2009 Ravens = 7-9
  20. 2009 Dolphins = 7-9
  21. 2009 Seahawks = 5-11
  22. 2008 Lions = 0-16

WINLESS PRESEASON

  1. 2018 Falcons = 7-9
  2. 2018 Cowboys = 10-6
  3. 2018 Seahawks = 10-6
  4. 2018 Titans = 9-7
  5. 2017 Falcons = 10-6
  6. 2017 Raiders = 6-10
  7. 2016 Browns = 1-15
  8. 2016 Saints = 7-9
  9. 2015 Saints = 7-9
  10. 2015 Rams = 7-9
  11. 2014 Cowboys = 12-4
  12. 2014 Colts = 11-5
  13. 2013 Falcons = 4-12
  14. 2013 Steelers = 8-8
  15. 2012 Bills = 6-10
  16. 2012 Dolphins = 7-9
  17. 2012 Jets = 6-10
  18. 2011 Falcons = 10-6
  19. 2011 Chiefs = 7-9
  20. 2011 Raiders = 8-8
  21. 2010 Bears = 11-5
  22. 2010 Colts = 10-6
  23. 2009 Cardinals = 10-6
  24. 2009 Panthers = 8-8
  25. 2009 Chiefs = 4-12
  26. 2008 Browns = 4-12
  27. 2008 Patriots = 11-5

 

I went all the way back through 2008 for a couple of reasons. The first one was because that is when Thomas Dimitroff took over the Falcons and the second was so that it would be a large enough sample size (11 years) to get a good gauge of valid results. There were 22 teams that posted an undefeated preseason record. Of those 22 teams only 7 teams posted a winning record. That's 31.8%. The combined regular season record of those 22 teams was 147-204 (.419).

In that same time period there were 27 teams that turned in a winless preseason. Of those 27 teams 11 of them posted a winning record. That's 28.9%. The combined regular season record of those 27 teams was 211-221 (.488).

  • Undefeated Teams = 7 out of 22 with winning records. 31.8%. Combined record of 147-204 (.419).
  • Winless Teams = 11 out of 27 win winning records. 28.9%. Combined record of 211-221 (.488)

Boom!! Think it's time to finally put to rest this ridiculous crap that preseason win/loss record matters.

only 1 superbowl winner was winless in the preseason

only 10 superbowl winners had a losing preseason

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1 minute ago, peoriabird said:

only 1 superbowl winner was winless in the preseason

only 10 superbowl winners had a losing preseason

So? That's about 20% of the super bowl winners, 

And 2 other teams went to the super bowl with winless preseasons, several other teams made playoff runs.

Reason I keep saying small sample size is because an 0for in preseason is actually fairly rare. For every 0for in NFL preseason history, there are dozens of 1-3s, 2-2s,3-1s,  Only reason the other records win more super bowls is there is so many more of them.

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59 minutes ago, Realsurfin said:

We still blow it in the 4th quarter.  LoL whether in the preseason... regular season or in the superbowl.  You would think that would be what we work on most.  How would our seasons look if we put effort in evaluating and correcting our 4th quarter deficiency. What would our record be without all those blown leads in the 4th quarter.    All our players keep getting older.  So am I.  We still make the same tired mistakes and then make the excuse that preseason is not about winning.  So I guess we will fix our 4th quarter pitiful performances in regular season again when it counts.  Yeah that works well.  I watch this play out every year and hear the same tired arguments to keep the status quo in preseason

1966 to present.... no rings.  And the two chances we had were pitiful.  Both losses were because of players that were evaluated.  Hats off to ER and JM

Now we figure losing in the 4th quarter is acceptable... cause its preseason. :rolleyes:

You all can comfort me with excuses when its regular season.  

Yeah I know.... DQ does not care its preseason...  

How many of the players that played in the 4th quarter last night will actually be on the team a month from now?

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So, don't know which I'd enjoy more, Falcons going winless in the preseason, then winning 14 games in the regular season and crushing all competition in the post season for their first  super bowl win or having the falcons winning a preseason game just so the math impaired will STFU.

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Posted (edited)

19 minutes ago, falconidae said:

So? That's about 20% of the super bowl winners, 

less than 19% so I'd rather be in the over 81% category

And 2 other teams went to the super bowl with winless preseasons, several other teams made playoff runs.

I'd rather win the Superbowl

Reason I keep saying small sample size is because an 0for in preseason is actually fairly rare. For every 0for in NFL preseason history, there are dozens of 1-3s, 2-2s,3-1s,  Only reason the other records win more super bowls is there is so many more of them.

Small Sample size?  Its the entire Superbowl history

Although the Patriots did have 1 losing preseason where they ended up winning the Superbowl in 2004 so there is hope.  Funny thing is that the Patriots have only had 3 losing preseasons over the last 19 years under Belichik

Edited by peoriabird

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13 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

How many of the players that played in the 4th quarter last night will actually be on the team a month from now?

Listening to the post presser they are considering some.  My biggest gripe is 4th quarter performance.  Imho 4th quarter is the Falcons Achilles heel.  How many 4th quarters do we lose?  How many winnable games did we drop.

Superbowl 4th quarter suicide.

Don't care if it's a newbie or a vet.  Win the 4th quarter.  I rest my case.

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20 minutes ago, peoriabird said:

So? That's about 20% of the super bowl winners, 

less than 19% so I'd rather be in the over 81% category

And 2 other teams went to the super bowl with winless preseasons, several other teams made playoff runs.

I'd rather win the Superbowl

Reason I keep saying small sample size is because an 0for in preseason is actually fairly rare. For every 0for in NFL preseason history, there are dozens of 1-3s, 2-2s,3-1s,  Only reason the other records win more super bowls is there is so many more of them.

Small Sample size?  Its the entire Superbowl history

Although the Patriots did have 1 losing preseason where they ended up winning the Superbowl in 2004 so there is hope.  Funny thing is that the Patriots have only had 3 losing preseasons over the last 19 years under Belichik

If teams can make it to  the super bowl and win it, and other teams can have deep playoff runs with an 0for preseason. it means that a team is not automatically bad just because it's winless in preseason.

There are two types of winless teams in preseason, One is a team with little or no talent. The other is, like the Falcons, a team that doesn't try to win in preseason. There is absolutely no way, just looking at the preseason record of a team to  tell which is which.

 

 And, entire history of super bowl isn't how you determine small sample size.

Here's 5 years worth of preseason results, 2008-2012, didn't cherry pick, any 5 year stretch is going to look like this:

4-0\  9
3-2\  4  
3-1\ 41
2-2\ 59
2-3\  1
1-3\ 30
1-4\  3
0-4\ 13

That's 160 preseason results, 13 of them were 0fors, that's 8 percent. 8 percent is what makes it a small sample size.  The % is pretty consistent throughout  the preseasons- there's somewhere between 0-3 teams winless in any given preseason.

So, that 8% has won one super bowl, means they've won about as many super bowls as you would expect 8% of the teams to win. You'd really expect 2-3 victories, but there just haven't been that many super bowls played.

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9 hours ago, falconidae said:

If teams can make it to  the super bowl and win it, and other teams can have deep playoff runs with an 0for preseason. it means that a team is not automatically bad just because it's winless in preseason.

There are two types of winless teams in preseason, One is a team with little or no talent. The other is, like the Falcons, a team that doesn't try to win in preseason. There is absolutely no way, just looking at the preseason record of a team to  tell which is which.

 

 And, entire history of super bowl isn't how you determine small sample size.

Here's 5 years worth of preseason results, 2008-2012, didn't cherry pick, any 5 year stretch is going to look like this:

4-0\  9
3-2\  4  
3-1\ 41
2-2\ 59
2-3\  1
1-3\ 30
1-4\  3
0-4\ 13

That's 160 preseason results, 13 of them were 0fors, that's 8 percent. 8 percent is what makes it a small sample size.  The % is pretty consistent throughout  the preseasons- there's somewhere between 0-3 teams winless in any given preseason.

So, that 8% has won one super bowl, means they've won about as many super bowls as you would expect 8% of the teams to win. You'd really expect 2-3 victories, but there just haven't been that many super bowls played.

You can look at this however want.  If Belichick is the best in the business at winning superbowls,  16/19 preseason he did not have a losing record.  9 out of 19 he has been to the superbowl.  Quinn 1/4.   Call me crazy but I would probably defer to Belichick's judgement over other coaches in the league. 

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On 8/9/2019 at 8:03 AM, WhenFalconsWin said:

Preaseason is like kissing your sister, it doesn't accomplish anything except evaluate coaches and talent.

uummmm.  Is that not the only reason they have a preseason?  

Image result for confused gif

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The last thing that new, young rookies and UDFA's need to learn when they enter a new workplace/team is that losing is acceptable. 

I am not saying that we need to win every preseason game or need to play regulars but if you teach players to give up in close preseason games, you are telling them that it is OK to give up in close regular season games.

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16 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

How many of the players that played in the 4th quarter last night will actually be on the team a month from now?

Dolphins played a lot of their starters deep into the 3rd and still struggled with our scrubs but you can’t tell people that. 

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4 minutes ago, jlrfalcon said:

The last thing that new, young rookies and UDFA's need to learn when they enter a new workplace/team is that losing is acceptable. 

I am not saying that we need to win every preseason game or need to play regulars but if you teach players to give up in close preseason games, you are telling them that it is OK to give up in close regular season games.

If a fringe roster player has to be taught not to give up they have no place in professional sports.

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