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Preseason Wins Are Meaningless


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So many folks on this message board love to talk about how important preseason wins are when there is specific proof that win/loss record is completely meaningless. Here's all the proof you need that preseason win/loss record is pointless.

UNDEFEATED PRESEASON

  1. 2017 Ravens = 9-7
  2. 2017 Browns = 0-16
  3. 2017 Broncos = 5-11
  4. 2017 Seahawks = 9-7
  5. 2016 Ravens = 8-8
  6. 2016 Vikings = 8-8
  7. 2016 Eagles = 7-9
  8. 2015 Chiefs = 11-5
  9. 2014 Ravens = 10-6
  10. 2014 Vikings = 7-9
  11. 2014 Giants = 6-10
  12. 2013 Seahawks = 13-3
  13. 2013 Redskins = 3-13
  14. 2012 Seahawks = 11-5
  15. 2012 Redskins = 4-12
  16. 2011 Lions = 10-6
  17. 2011 Rams = 2-14
  18. 2010 49ers = 5-10
  19. 2009 Ravens = 7-9
  20. 2009 Dolphins = 7-9
  21. 2009 Seahawks = 5-11
  22. 2008 Lions = 0-16

WINLESS PRESEASON

  1. 2018 Falcons = 7-9
  2. 2018 Cowboys = 10-6
  3. 2018 Seahawks = 10-6
  4. 2018 Titans = 9-7
  5. 2017 Falcons = 10-6
  6. 2017 Raiders = 6-10
  7. 2016 Browns = 1-15
  8. 2016 Saints = 7-9
  9. 2015 Saints = 7-9
  10. 2015 Rams = 7-9
  11. 2014 Cowboys = 12-4
  12. 2014 Colts = 11-5
  13. 2013 Falcons = 4-12
  14. 2013 Steelers = 8-8
  15. 2012 Bills = 6-10
  16. 2012 Dolphins = 7-9
  17. 2012 Jets = 6-10
  18. 2011 Falcons = 10-6
  19. 2011 Chiefs = 7-9
  20. 2011 Raiders = 8-8
  21. 2010 Bears = 11-5
  22. 2010 Colts = 10-6
  23. 2009 Cardinals = 10-6
  24. 2009 Panthers = 8-8
  25. 2009 Chiefs = 4-12
  26. 2008 Browns = 4-12
  27. 2008 Patriots = 11-5

 

I went all the way back through 2008 for a couple of reasons. The first one was because that is when Thomas Dimitroff took over the Falcons and the second was so that it would be a large enough sample size (11 years) to get a good gauge of valid results. There were 22 teams that posted an undefeated preseason record. Of those 22 teams only 7 teams posted a winning record. That's 31.8%. The combined regular season record of those 22 teams was 147-204 (.419).

In that same time period there were 27 teams that turned in a winless preseason. Of those 27 teams 11 of them posted a winning record. That's 28.9%. The combined regular season record of those 27 teams was 211-221 (.488).

  • Undefeated Teams = 7 out of 22 with winning records. 31.8%. Combined record of 147-204 (.419).
  • Winless Teams = 11 out of 27 win winning records. 28.9%. Combined record of 211-221 (.488)

Boom!! Think it's time to finally put to rest this ridiculous crap that preseason win/loss record matters.

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Both "losses" this year have been on the last play in the final minutes of the game. Infact both had huge catches by the other team's scrub receivers over one of the Falcons scrub corners. After week one that Falcon got cut.

Even the 4th and 5th team falcons are competitive. That should make anyone excited for next season.

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I'm not worried....I'm dang near giddy. Here's why:

1. The lines on both sides of the ball.

Usually, in preseason the falcons would experience a huge drop off in line play soon as the starters would be pulled. This season, that hasn't been the case. Last night, both lines were, dare I say, dominant up until halftime even though they were playing against first stringers most of that time.

2. Offensive Coaching

Yeah, it's preseason, but coaching can be evaluated if you know the head coaches goals. Quinn likes to use preseason to evaluate talent in his back ups, period. He does this by placing them in high stress situations using play calling to see how they react. Not impossible, just high stress.

I thought, given those conditions, the offensive play calling was very good.  There was a good mixture of run and pass. There was a good balance between achieving Quinn's goals while still trying to achieve offensive success.

I have yet to see a moment that has me saying "Wtf?"

That wasn't the case the last couple of seasons.

3. Depth

While the falcons have had first rate talent along the first string, depth has been lacking to say the least, like forever. Last night there was depth in abundance everywhere...along both lines...WR depth is ridiculous and is the best group on the team(All you Julio haters note that this group is the best on the team because Julio puts in extra work with the youngsters. Did you see him last night coaching from the sidelines like a proud Pop Warner dad? Blank ain't got enough money to pay Julio his actual worth so STFU.) Line backer saw number #53 show his ***.

Like I said above, usually after the first team comes out of a preseason game, there is a huge drop off. Last night, from the second series until halftime our back ups played against mostly their starters and won.

That was NOT case last season, or the season before.

Like I said....I'm straight giddy for the upcoming season....and I don't get that way easy.

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Yep. The birds easily could've won, but that's not what PS is about. The dolphins still had some starters playing against our 3rd and 4th string in the 3rd quarter. We went for it on 4th and 9 with 2 minutes left at our 20 in a tie game. It was about seeing what our guys could do.

The dolphins, meanwhile, want to sell tickets. Since they'll be terrible this year, preseason is one of very few ways to give their fans hope.

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2 minutes ago, The Vent King said:

I know they are meaningless, but I wish we’d win just one so everybody would shut up about it :bang:

Ironic thing is, if Benkert stayed healthy, really good bet the falcons are 2-0 and all the posters ranting and raving about 0-10,  and preseason wins in general, are giddy with excitement about the new attitude and finally having quality depth.

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Fans are trying to find correlation so they can sleep at night. It also doesn't help that most have no clue what they are watching and just know points and wins/losses. So when they distill it down, it's "we didn't win! We're supposed to win!" 

They ignore the facts like you posted OP and others that we literally post over and over again every year. People can't understand that we're not saying we like losing. But fans are complaining about losses as if they are trying to win like in the regular season. They can't detach that some teams, like the Dan Quinn Falcons, are using preseason to get live looks at situations they can't necessarily get in camp. Others use it like a way to get fans excited and ticket sales. See the following:

I've never seen a team celebrating their "preseason openers" record. The funniest part is that it's the Lions, one of the most inept franchise during the last 16 years. Yet, fans here want to find a correlation between preseason wins and regular season performance. During the last 16 years, the Lions have a 12-4 record to open the preseason but a 97-159 regular season record during that same time. You want to be a team that is celebrating preseason wins but has a 38% regular season winning percentage? Go right ahead. 

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6 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

So many folks on this message board love to talk about how important preseason wins are when there is specific proof that win/loss record is completely meaningless. Here's all the proof you need that preseason win/loss record is pointless.

UNDEFEATED PRESEASON

  1. 2017 Ravens = 9-7
  2. 2017 Browns = 0-16
  3. 2017 Broncos = 5-11
  4. 2017 Seahawks = 9-7
  5. 2016 Ravens = 8-8
  6. 2016 Vikings = 8-8
  7. 2016 Eagles = 7-9
  8. 2015 Chiefs = 11-5
  9. 2014 Ravens = 10-6
  10. 2014 Vikings = 7-9
  11. 2014 Giants = 6-10
  12. 2013 Seahawks = 13-3
  13. 2013 Redskins = 3-13
  14. 2012 Seahawks = 11-5
  15. 2012 Redskins = 4-12
  16. 2011 Lions = 10-6
  17. 2011 Rams = 2-14
  18. 2010 49ers = 5-10
  19. 2009 Ravens = 7-9
  20. 2009 Dolphins = 7-9
  21. 2009 Seahawks = 5-11
  22. 2008 Lions = 0-16

WINLESS PRESEASON

  1. 2018 Falcons = 7-9
  2. 2018 Cowboys = 10-6
  3. 2018 Seahawks = 10-6
  4. 2018 Titans = 9-7
  5. 2017 Falcons = 10-6
  6. 2017 Raiders = 6-10
  7. 2016 Browns = 1-15
  8. 2016 Saints = 7-9
  9. 2015 Saints = 7-9
  10. 2015 Rams = 7-9
  11. 2014 Cowboys = 12-4
  12. 2014 Colts = 11-5
  13. 2013 Falcons = 4-12
  14. 2013 Steelers = 8-8
  15. 2012 Bills = 6-10
  16. 2012 Dolphins = 7-9
  17. 2012 Jets = 6-10
  18. 2011 Falcons = 10-6
  19. 2011 Chiefs = 7-9
  20. 2011 Raiders = 8-8
  21. 2010 Bears = 11-5
  22. 2010 Colts = 10-6
  23. 2009 Cardinals = 10-6
  24. 2009 Panthers = 8-8
  25. 2009 Chiefs = 4-12
  26. 2008 Browns = 4-12
  27. 2008 Patriots = 11-5

 

I went all the way back through 2008 for a couple of reasons. The first one was because that is when Thomas Dimitroff took over the Falcons and the second was so that it would be a large enough sample season (11 years) to get a good gauge of valid results. There were 22 teams that posted an undefeated preseason record. Of those 22 teams only 7 teams posted a winning record. That's 31.8%. The combined regular season record of those 22 teams was 147-204 (.419).

In that same time period there were 27 teams that turned in a winless preseason. Of those 27 teams 11 of them posted a winning record. That's 28.9%. The combined regular season record of those 27 teams was 211-221 (.488).

  • Undefeated Teams = 7 out of 22 with winning records. 31.8%. Combined record of 147-204 (.419).
  • Winless Teams = 11 out of 27 win winning records. 28.9%. Combined record of 211-221 (.488)

Boom!! Think it's time to finally put to rest this ridiculous crap that preseason win/loss record matters.

Football is a team game. Preseason is when you should train your team to play as a unit. That includes the first team. A team can't afford to use the first few games of the season to get into rhythm. Look at that schedule this year. Use last year as proof of concept.

In my opinion the first team should play 1 series together in preseason game #1. 1 quarter in game #2 and 1 half in game #3, sit out the 4th. This has always been the tried and true way to prepare a team for the season in the past and it seemed to work. No..No...No...practice reps don't count, not even 11 on 11 sessions in low contact. There is never a time in practice where there's really full game contact. Maybe for the lineman but no one else. Those days are gone.

The preseason record is meaningless. The preseason game training is priceless.

It's hard to come back from a 1 and 3 or 0 and 4 start to the season.

Edited by slider
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32 minutes ago, vel said:

Fans are trying to find correlation so they can sleep at night. It also doesn't help that most have no clue what they are watching and just know points and wins/losses. So when they distill it down, it's "we didn't win! We're supposed to win!" 

They ignore the facts like you posted OP and others that we literally post over and over again every year. People can't understand that we're not saying we like losing. But fans are complaining about losses as if they are trying to win like in the regular season. They can't detach that some teams, like the Dan Quinn Falcons, are using preseason to get live looks at situations they can't necessarily get in camp. Others use it like a way to get fans excited and ticket sales. See the following:

I've never seen a team celebrating their "preseason openers" record. The funniest part is that it's the Lions, one of the most inept franchise during the last 16 years. Yet, fans here want to find a correlation between preseason wins and regular season performance. During the last 16 years, the Lions have a 12-4 record to open the preseason but a 97-159 regular season record during that same time. You want to be a team that is celebrating preseason wins but has a 38% regular season winning percentage? Go right ahead. 

cllpse.gif

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Well at least we got to teach the 3rd and 4th string how to lose the game in the fourth quarter instead of winning the 4th quarter.  Now they got a feel for it.  It won't sting so much in the regular season.  Got to make sure they are ready to do it the Falcon way.

 It was Miami... evaluate that.

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1 minute ago, Realsurfin said:

Well at least we got to teach the 3rd and 4th string how to lose the game in the fourth quarter instead of winning the 4th quarter.  Now they got a feel for it.  It won't sting so much in the regular season.  Got to make sure they are ready to do it the Falcon way.

 It was Miami... evaluate that.

Would you agree that Quinn doesn't care about winning preseason games?

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7 minutes ago, Realsurfin said:

Well at least we got to teach the 3rd and 4th string how to lose the game in the fourth quarter instead of winning the 4th quarter.  Now they got a feel for it.  It won't sting so much in the regular season.  Got to make sure they are ready to do it the Falcon way.

 It was Miami... evaluate that.

Apples and Oranges.  DQ would never have gone for it on 4th and 9 (the first time)  for real.  It was just to see how they handled it. 

Tons of penalties on defense, and a lot that thwarted getting to 4th down - that's what rookies do

It's all about evaluation.  There were some good things that happened last night.

I have no complaints.......

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5 minutes ago, Realsurfin said:

Well at least we got to teach the 3rd and 4th string how to lose the game in the fourth quarter instead of winning the 4th quarter.  Now they got a feel for it.  It won't sting so much in the regular season.  Got to make sure they are ready to do it the Falcon way.

 It was Miami... evaluate that.

Yeah Miami.

The team that kept some of their 1st and 2nd against our 3rd and 4th for half the game on a crappy wet field with such obvious bias officiating Stevie Wonder would have seen it.

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33 minutes ago, slider said:

Football is a team game. Preseason is when you should train your team to play as a unit. That includes the first team. A team can't afford to use the first few games of the season to get into rhythm. Look at that schedule this year. Use last year as proof of concept.

In my opinion the first team should play 1 series together in preseason game #1. 1 quarter in game #2 and 1 half in game #3, sit out the 4th. This has always been the tried and true way to prepare a team for the season in the past and it seemed to work. No..No...No...practice reps don't count, not even 11 on 11 sessions in low contact. There is never a time in practice where there's really full game contact. Maybe for the lineman but no one else. Those days are gone.

The preseason record is meaningless. The preseason game training is priceless.

It's hard to come back from a 1 and 3 or 0 and 4 start to the season.

That sounds good in a vacuum. Guys were going to play yesterday....until the weather turned to crap. DQ made the smarter decision of resting the most valuable players on the roster in lieu of chasing "1 series together in preseason game #1". Would it have been worth it if Matt gets hurt because a pass rusher slipped on the wet grass and hit him low? Which is what happened in the game to the Dolphins QB. Luckily he didn't get hurt, but it was not good conditions and the risk was too great. 

And again, you're trying to correlate lack of preseason snaps to starting slow out the gate. You can't use last year as proof of concept unless you think the reason we didn't score at PHI, the reason we lost in OT to NO, and the reason we lost to CIN was because we went 0-4 unless you equally agree we started off 2017 3-1 because we went 0-4 in pre-season. 

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I see this take on preseason every year.   Maybe Quinn should break the mold and do it different.  Or do we have to keep repeating a lackluster history.  Show me the rings... instill winning in the preseason evaluation.  Maybe... just maybe it will translate into more regular season wins.  This better luck next time attitude does not bring home the rings.

Quinn should evaluate winning instead of losing.  What is the difference in evaluating players while winning verses evaluating the players while they are losing? Are you all saying that you cannot really evaluate a player unless they are losing the game?

That's pretty incredible.:rolleyes:  

I would say the coaching needs some reevaluating.  

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2 minutes ago, vel said:

That sounds good in a vacuum. Guys were going to play yesterday....until the weather turned to crap. DQ made the smarter decision of resting the most valuable players on the roster in lieu of chasing "1 series together in preseason game #1". Would it have been worth it if Matt gets hurt because a pass rusher slipped on the wet grass and hit him low? Which is what happened in the game to the Dolphins QB. Luckily he didn't get hurt, but it was not good conditions and the risk was too great. 

And again, you're trying to correlate lack of preseason snaps to starting slow out the gate. You can't use last year as proof of concept unless you think the reason we didn't score at PHI, the reason we lost in OT to NO, and the reason we lost to CIN was because we went 0-4 unless you equally agree we started off 2017 3-1 because we went 0-4 in pre-season. 

The preseason record is meaningless and shouldn't be the issue.

Evaluating the 2nd 3rd and 4th string players has become the primary reason for the preseason which I believe is a mistake. The preseason primarily should be for getting your 1st teamers ready to play the season then evaluate the the back benchers. The idea that because they're vets, they don't need to play in the preseason to get ready is ludicrous. No other sport approaches preseason preparation in that fashion. I can't imagine Freddie Freeman not playing in a preseason game to avoid injury. That would almost guarantee injury.

How many spots on this roster are actually up for grabs? They're using the preseason to give players that won't be on the team a chance to play and show for some other team while killing the preparation time that most have come to believe is ("let's not get injured time") for the real players. This team hasn't been ready to start the season over the past couple...since they got into protection mode. The last real tough camp they had was after a bad 2015 season and they had a 'prove it or lose it' mentality for each position going into 2016 camp. We saw how that season panned out for them.

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1 minute ago, slider said:

The preseason record is meaningless and shouldn't be the issue.

Evaluating the 2nd 3rd and 4th string players has become the primary reason for the preseason which I believe is a mistake. The preseason primarily should be for getting your 1st teamers ready to play the season then evaluate the the back benchers. The idea that because they're vets, they don't need to play in the preseason to get ready is ludicrous. No other sport approaches preseason preparation in that fashion. I can't imagine Freddie Freeman not playing in a preseason game to avoid injury. That would almost guarantee injury.

How many spots on this roster are actually up for grabs? They're using the preseason to give players that won't be on the team a chance to play and show for some other team while killing the preparation time that most have come to believe is ("let's not get injured time") for the real players. This team hasn't been ready to start the season over the past couple...since they got into protection mode. The last real tough camp they had was after a bad 2015 season and they had a 'prove it or lose it' mentality for each position going into 2016 camp. We saw how that season panned out for them.

I never said they don't need to play. You even mentioned one series for the first game for starters, which is what DQ was planning on doing until it poured down raining and making a bad field condition. No other sport has the high degree of injury and low number of games like football, so you again can't make comments in a vacuum. If Matt went and got hit and injured his toe like Benkert did, if he had 162 games to get back in the line up, cool. But he's got 16. And Julio hasn't played in a preseason game in years and is perfectly fine. Don't know how you can try and correlate not playing preseason to guaranteeing injury...

"This team hasn't been ready to start the season over the past couple...since they got into protection mode."

That's a dam lie and the truth is lost on you. Hasn't been ready to start the season? Lol they started 2017 3-1, losing to the Bills on a fluke "fumble" by Matt Ryan, after starting 0-4 in preseason. In 2018, I guess Debo, Neal, and Rico all got hurt because they didn't play pre-season? No, shlt happens. And we still started the season 1-3 only losing by a combined 13 points, all plays at the end of the game. The ball bounces our way in two of those three and we're 3-1 again. You can say whatever you want, but all of that post was just a bunch of BS. 

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