g-dawg

PFT: Mike Florio on Julio Contract Negotiations

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G-Dawg:   First off, I will say this.   This is the 1,000 foot picture Florio is presenting and he seems to be unaware of the Julio/Arthur plane instagram video and how it is very close to being done - the new contract.  So Florio doesn't seem to clued in on the actual negotiation as I believe most here already know this new contract is imminent.

I do believe Florio's analysis of the merit of Julio's new deal has legs.  Falcons have gotten the best of Julio and these next four years won't be as productive as the last 4.   Maybe the next two years will be as productive but certainly not the next 4 yrs - and Julio already is under contract for the next two years.    Let's say Julio has 1,400yds and 8TDs the next two years - which we would all agree is a very good year and "Julio-esque".   If those years are followed up with 800-1,000yd seasons and 4-6TDs - then paying an average of 20mm/yr for those four years would be a gross overpay - don't think anyone would disagree.   Granted, we haven't seen the drop-off yet but it will come - and it is much more likely than not that it will come in the next 4 years.     I believe all parties know this - maybe Julio ain't there yet nor would you want him to be - but his agent certainly does.   This next contract will be about more than just getting Julio to the top because of his level of play - the next contract will be a "You have been a great Falcon and we won't to celebrate you and we are OK with potentially overpaying you in a few years so you will be a lifetime Falcon."   

No one really cares too much NOW about giving Julio more money - however, in a few years, it could be more of a sore subject.   There is nothing really in it for the Falcons to renegotiate Julio's deal.  It is all about appeasing our stud franchise player.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/video/falcons-julio-jones-will-report-training-camp-wants-new-deal?ls=pftvod

Will Falcons, Julio Jones do a deal?

Posted by Mike Florio on July 18, 2019, 4:33 PM EDT

gettyimages-1066734942-e1563481978295.jp
Getty Images

Grady Jarrett? Check.

Deion Jones? Check.

Other guy named Jones who is slightly more important to the team? No check yet.

The Falcons have taken care of significant business this week, signing two key defensive players, but still no business has been done between the Falcons and one of their most significant players, receiver Julio Jones.

He has been jostling for a big-money deal for more than a year, but he still hasn’t gotten one. In 2018, a holdout was avoided by an eleventh-hour Band-Aid along with a presumption that, come 2019, the situation would be addressed with a new, long-term contract.

Training camp opens in three days, and Jones previously has said he won’t hold out. But he based that vow on the vow that was made to him by owner Arthur Blank.

Mr. Blank gave us his word. . . . That’s golden,” Jones said earlier this month. “[Blank’s] word is that it’s going to get done. . . . There’s no stress on my end. I’m not thinking about it.”

He may be thinking about it plenty if the deal ultimately offered by the Falcons is less golden than Jones expects it to be. Indeed, it’s one thing to intend to sign a player to a contract; it’s another to commit to giving the player what we wants. And it remains unclear what Jones wants, other than: More.

Jones seems to be sensitive to the fact that fans resent players who play hardball to get paid, even though players have no equity, experience limited careers, and endure all of the physical risks. Fans never get mad at teams for squeezing players, but fans hate it when players squeeze teams. Upside-down as that concept may be, Jones seems to be keenly aware of it, while nevertheless attempting to get what he deserves: More.

For the Falcons, the challenge becomes paying Jones more but not so much more that they’re paying for more than what he currently can do. Teams don’t pay for past performance, but in this case that’s precisely what Jones may want — a correction to what has been a below-market deal in recent years, even if that means the Falcons will within the next year or two (or sooner) conclude that they’re paying more than they should be paying for a guy whose best days as a player may be behind him.

For now, a holdout may end up being in front of him, if the Falcons don’t literally put in front of him the kind of more that will get Jones sign his name and move forward.

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7 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

G-Dawg:   First off, I will say this.   This is the 1,000 foot picture Florio is presenting and he seems to be unaware of the Julio/Arthur plane instagram video and how it is very close to being done - the new contract.  So Florio doesn't seem to clued in on the actual negotiation as I believe most here already know this new contract is imminent.

I do believe Florio's analysis of the merit of Julio's new deal has legs.  Falcons have gotten the best of Julio and these next four years won't be as productive as the last 4.   Maybe the next two years will be as productive but certainly not the next 4 yrs - and Julio already is under contract for the next two years.    Let's say Julio has 1,400yds and 8TDs the next two years - which we would all agree is a very good year and "Julio-esque".   If those years are followed up with 800-1,000yd seasons and 4-6TDs - then paying an average of 20mm/yr for those four years would be a gross overpay - don't think anyone would disagree.   Granted, we haven't seen the drop-off yet but it will come - and it is much more likely than not that it will come in the next 4 years.     I believe all parties know this - maybe Julio ain't there yet nor would you want him to be - but his agent certainly does.   This next contract will be about more than just getting Julio to the top because of his level of play - the next contract will be a "You have been a great Falcon and we won't to celebrate you and we are OK with potentially overpaying you in a few years so you will be a lifetime Falcon."   

No one really cares too much NOW about giving Julio more money - however, in a few years, it could be more of a sore subject.   There is nothing really in it for the Falcons to renegotiate Julio's deal.  It is all about appeasing our stud franchise player.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/video/falcons-julio-jones-will-report-training-camp-wants-new-deal?ls=pftvod

Will Falcons, Julio Jones do a deal?

Posted by Mike Florio on July 18, 2019, 4:33 PM EDT

gettyimages-1066734942-e1563481978295.jp
Getty Images

Grady Jarrett? Check.

Deion Jones? Check.

Other guy named Jones who is slightly more important to the team? No check yet.

The Falcons have taken care of significant business this week, signing two key defensive players, but still no business has been done between the Falcons and one of their most significant players, receiver Julio Jones.

He has been jostling for a big-money deal for more than a year, but he still hasn’t gotten one. In 2018, a holdout was avoided by an eleventh-hour Band-Aid along with a presumption that, come 2019, the situation would be addressed with a new, long-term contract.

Training camp opens in three days, and Jones previously has said he won’t hold out. But he based that vow on the vow that was made to him by owner Arthur Blank.

Mr. Blank gave us his word. . . . That’s golden,” Jones said earlier this month. “[Blank’s] word is that it’s going to get done. . . . There’s no stress on my end. I’m not thinking about it.”

He may be thinking about it plenty if the deal ultimately offered by the Falcons is less golden than Jones expects it to be. Indeed, it’s one thing to intend to sign a player to a contract; it’s another to commit to giving the player what we wants. And it remains unclear what Jones wants, other than: More.

Jones seems to be sensitive to the fact that fans resent players who play hardball to get paid, even though players have no equity, experience limited careers, and endure all of the physical risks. Fans never get mad at teams for squeezing players, but fans hate it when players squeeze teams. Upside-down as that concept may be, Jones seems to be keenly aware of it, while nevertheless attempting to get what he deserves: More.

For the Falcons, the challenge becomes paying Jones more but not so much more that they’re paying for more than what he currently can do. Teams don’t pay for past performance, but in this case that’s precisely what Jones may want — a correction to what has been a below-market deal in recent years, even if that means the Falcons will within the next year or two (or sooner) conclude that they’re paying more than they should be paying for a guy whose best days as a player may be behind him.

For now, a holdout may end up being in front of him, if the Falcons don’t literally put in front of him the kind of more that will get Jones sign his name and move forward.

Julio's quote gives us some insight on Dimitroff's position here. Blank said it will get done, so, Julio doesn't have to worry. That is a telling description of Dimitroff's say/power in this organization. I believe it implies that TD is a signifiganty less powerful voice that his contemporaries. I think it may also be why a contributing reason why Pioli left.

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I fundamentally agree that a long term mega-dollar deal would be tough to swallow but all I care about is getting this man on the field in 2019.  The clock is ticking on all of it and I'm in win now mode so as long as TD can make it work I don't care.

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I generally cannot stand Florio, but I agree with him on the blurb about fans hating on players.  Spot on there.

Disagree on the holdout front.

Disagree on the "teams don't pay for past performance" front.

Disagree that Julio is sensitive to what fans think.

Agree with your opening line about Florio not knowing the situation, which kinda negates this whole article.

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Yeah I think TD is in a difficult position right now. Blank put all the leverage in Julio’s corner. Gonna be interesting how TD makes the numbers work. 

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21 minutes ago, Monolith2001 said:

I fundamentally agree that a long term mega-dollar deal would be tough to swallow but all I care about is getting this man on the field in 2019.  The clock is ticking on all of it and I'm in win now mode so as long as TD can make it work I don't care.

I agree. As long as this man gets us a Lombardi trophy, I could care less if they give him 30 million a year

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1 minute ago, Vandy said:

Been hearing this “Injury-prone Julio is gonna decline soon” navel-gazing in TAFT for 3 years now....and he keeps on rolling...

Brees and Brady have been on their last year for like 7 years now...

THIS IS THE YEAR!

Still waiting on @MAD597 to tell me how many games Julio has missed due to "foot issues".  Apparently it's every single year, I don't know if you have heard Vandy.

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13 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Been hearing this “Injury-prone Julio is gonna decline soon” navel-gazing in TAFT for 3 years now....and he keeps on rolling...

If you say it every year you will be right. If you say he wont every year you will be wrong. Folks playing the waiting game on julio

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46 minutes ago, JDFIII said:

Julio's quote gives us some insight on Dimitroff's position here. Blank said it will get done, so, Julio doesn't have to worry. That is a telling description of Dimitroff's say/power in this organization. I believe it implies that TD is a signifiganty less powerful voice that his contemporaries. I think it may also be why a contributing reason why Pioli left.

Or Blank knows TD will get it done and knows Julio is important to the organization. 

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23 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Been hearing this “Injury-prone Julio is gonna decline soon” navel-gazing in TAFT for 3 years now....and he keeps on rolling...

http://www.nfl.com/player/larryfitzgerald/2506106/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryrice/2502642/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/terrellowens/2502377/careerstats

good grief Vandy.  don't be simplistic.  Julio is going into his age 30 season, he is still in his prime.  With health, he probably still has 3 yrs in his prime.   He is gonna fall off.    I think you would agree that the three receivers listed above are some of the all-time greats.  While all three had some productive years after age 32 - you can see w/ all of them the consistency and ability to be at THE TOP of the profession past that age - there is a dropoff.

Father time is undefeated.  The next three years, with health, Julio should maintain his elite status.  If we extend Julio out to age 33, 34, 35 - there is going to be a dropoff - it will happen - regardless of any pithy comments you make.

I believe Julio can be like these three guys above - Fitz/Rice/TO - in that he can be productive in the "drop-off" years - but I don't believe he will be elite in those drop-off years - he won't be at the top of the NFL then - but if the extension goes past those years at $20mm/yr - we could be paying him as so.

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When you get a once in a decade player like Julio you shutup an pay the man. No and's if's or buts or muttering underneath your breath. He makes the team legit, and got the fans to take pride in the team. 

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1 hour ago, JDFIII said:

Julio's quote gives us some insight on Dimitroff's position here. Blank said it will get done, so, Julio doesn't have to worry. That is a telling description of Dimitroff's say/power in this organization. I believe it implies that TD is a signifiganty less powerful voice that his contemporaries. I think it may also be why a contributing reason why Pioli left.

Please don't quote the entire OP

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

if you click on the link, you can watch the Florio video on this.

Florio has always been a closet Saints fan and every now and then it comes out when he talks about the Falcons.

That being said yes at this point they could very well get into paying for past performance so they will need multiple ways out.

This is why this extension would have made MUCH more sense last year instead if kicking it down the road where Julio is a year older and one year closer to the inevitable decline.  Another reason why 'sticking it out with Sark' didn't make any sense.

So 2 years left on his deal but all the guaranteed money has been mostly paid out.  I'm thinking a 5 year extension with an out after 3 years... maybe even 2...

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10 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

http://www.nfl.com/player/larryfitzgerald/2506106/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryrice/2502642/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/terrellowens/2502377/careerstats

good grief Vandy.  don't be simplistic.  Julio is going into his age 30 season, he is still in his prime.  With health, he probably still has 3 yrs in his prime.   He is gonna fall off.    I think you would agree that the three receivers listed above are some of the all-time greats.  While all three had some productive years after age 32 - you can see w/ all of them the consistency and ability to be at THE TOP of the profession past that age - there is a dropoff.

Father time is undefeated.  The next three years, with health, Julio should maintain his elite status.  If we extend Julio out to age 33, 34, 35 - there is going to be a dropoff - it will happen - regardless of any pithy comments you make.

I believe Julio can be like these three guys above - Fitz/Rice/TO - in that he can be productive in the "drop-off" years - but I don't believe he will be elite in those drop-off years - he won't be at the top of the NFL then - but if the extension goes past those years at $20mm/yr - we could be paying him as so.

Who is saying Julio is going to be elite at age 37 though?  That's not the argument.  The argument is Julio is injury prone as @Vandy pointed out.  There are several people here who claim he has foot issues every single year.  That he can never play enough snaps.  Always sitting out.  Yada yada.

Fact is, if we keep drafting the way we do, we don't NEED Julio to be Julio at that advanced age.  At that point he would be a 3rd down piece at a much lesser cost.

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11 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

http://www.nfl.com/player/larryfitzgerald/2506106/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryrice/2502642/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/terrellowens/2502377/careerstats

good grief Vandy.  don't be simplistic.  Julio is going into his age 30 season, he is still in his prime.  With health, he probably still has 3 yrs in his prime.   He is gonna fall off.    I think you would agree that the three receivers listed above are some of the all-time greats.  While all three had some productive years after age 32 - you can see w/ all of them the consistency and ability to be at THE TOP of the profession past that age - there is a dropoff.

Father time is undefeated.  The next three years, with health, Julio should maintain his elite status.  If we extend Julio out to age 33, 34, 35 - there is going to be a dropoff - it will happen - regardless of any pithy comments you make.

I believe Julio can be like these three guys above - Fitz/Rice/TO - in that he can be productive in the "drop-off" years - but I don't believe he will be elite in those drop-off years - he won't be at the top of the NFL then - but if the extension goes past those years at $20mm/yr - we could be paying him as so.

You're ignoring what Vandy is saying. He's not saying Julio will roll into his 40's putting up crazy stats. He's saying for the past 3 years posters on TATF have been saying Julio will decline the upcoming year or get hurt or whatever when he hasn't. And it won't happen for another 3-4 years.

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8 minutes ago, Osiruz said:

When you get a once in a decade player like Julio you shutup an pay the man. No and's if's or buts or muttering underneath your breath. He makes the team legit, and got the fans to take pride in the team. 

I don't disagree - just saying at some point what we agree to pay him now will be a burden much later.   Won't be a problem now per se.

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12 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

 

I believe Julio can be like these three guys above - Fitz/Rice/TO - in that he can be productive in the "drop-off" years - but I don't believe he will be elite in those drop-off years - he won't be at the top of the NFL then - but if the extension goes past those years at $20mm/yr - we could be paying him as so.

Basically at some point in the future he's not going to demand double/triple coverage on every play and can be singled up.

When that happens the whole dynamic of the offense will change.

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Just now, Yo_Lover said:

You're ignoring what Vandy is saying. He's not saying Julio will roll into his 40's putting up crazy stats. He's saying for the past 3 years posters on TATF have been saying Julio will decline the upcoming year or get hurt or whatever when he hasn't. And it won't happen for another 3-4 years.

must have missed that one......haven't seen anyone make that argument.

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9 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

http://www.nfl.com/player/larryfitzgerald/2506106/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryrice/2502642/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/terrellowens/2502377/careerstats

good grief Vandy.  don't be simplistic.  Julio is going into his age 30 season, he is still in his prime.  With health, he probably still has 3 yrs in his prime.   He is gonna fall off.    I think you would agree that the three receivers listed above are some of the all-time greats.  While all three had some productive years after age 32 - you can see w/ all of them the consistency and ability to be at THE TOP of the profession past that age - there is a dropoff.

Father time is undefeated.  The next three years, with health, Julio should maintain his elite status.  If we extend Julio out to age 33, 34, 35 - there is going to be a dropoff - it will happen - regardless of any pithy comments you make.

Think Vandy was making fun of those who've been predicting his imminent demise for years now, not that father time won't catch up to him. 

If there is anyone playing today who can emulate TO, it's Julio. Even when he loses a step, he'll still be faster than most players on the field. With his size and route running ability, he can fill the Gonzo role after age 35- guy that can't run anymore, but knows how to get open and catch the football. Would not be surprised at all to see him playing effectively into his 40s. Only thing I don't know is if he wants to. He may be good after another 3-4 years.

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16 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

http://www.nfl.com/player/larryfitzgerald/2506106/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/jerryrice/2502642/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/terrellowens/2502377/careerstats

good grief Vandy.  don't be simplistic.  Julio is going into his age 30 season, he is still in his prime.  With health, he probably still has 3 yrs in his prime.   He is gonna fall off.    I think you would agree that the three receivers listed above are some of the all-time greats.  While all three had some productive years after age 32 - you can see w/ all of them the consistency and ability to be at THE TOP of the profession past that age - there is a dropoff.

Father time is undefeated.  The next three years, with health, Julio should maintain his elite status.  If we extend Julio out to age 33, 34, 35 - there is going to be a dropoff - it will happen - regardless of any pithy comments you make.

I believe Julio can be like these three guys above - Fitz/Rice/TO - in that he can be productive in the "drop-off" years - but I don't believe he will be elite in those drop-off years - he won't be at the top of the NFL then - but if the extension goes past those years at $20mm/yr - we could be paying him as so.

Like to see 'Father Time' try to defend this one called, Julio!

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