Falcons In 2012

We are #1...and GB at #2 is amusing

88 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Iron Saint said:

Yup. One thing we got going for us is that Brees' APY won't increase significantly like it has after signing previous multi-year deals.

Not true, Sproles' last year in New Orleans (2013) our offense was 10th in points and 4th in yards. The following year, the offense was ranked 9th in points and 1st in yards.

Between 2014-2016 (where we didn't have that Bush/Sproles/Kamara satellite back), our offense was 1st or 2nd in yards all three years. The only reason we went 7-9 those 3 years was because the defense was correspondingly bad being either 32nd or 31st in points or yards. Kamara has a decent amount of leverage and he'll be paid accordingly. Payton won't let him go.

But yeahhh, you'd like us letting Kamara walk in free agency, wouldn't you... ;)

 

Here is your Jokerless Offense:

Evolving the Joker

Look, do we need a combination of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush in an offense that already has Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson? OF COURSE WE DO. The satellite back, the joker, is the most critical part of Sean Payton’s genius.

All but forced to take Reggie Bush with the second overall pick to start his tenure as head coach, Payton made Bush our defining skill player from 2006-2010. Of course, Bush never lived up to the impossible hype that comes along with being the second overall pick in the draft, and a huge part of the fan base hated him for that.

Reggie was hard to watch sometimes because expectations, his ceaseless potential, and the memory of his college heyday vastly overshadowed his on-the-field contributions as a Saint. He was a superstar that never materialized.

Still, he had shining moments (the historic bat game, the time he almost had three punt return touchdowns in a game, etc.)

Then came Darren Sproles, who burned hot and fast in the Saints’ offense. His 2011 performance is so staggeringly good, his integration into the system so complete, that it’s hard to remember that he wasn’t actually on the squad that won a title.

The transition to Sproles was so seamless that it came as a shock when the Saints failed to replace him after Sproles was traded in the first great blood-letting, in 2013.

Between Travaris Cadet and C.J. Spiller, watching the Saints try to plug the hole left by Bush and Sproles with broken and inadequate players has contributed to the malaise around this team. The Saints are better — and more importantly more exciting — when they have a reliable joker on the field.

It’s not hard science, but since the beginning of the Sean Payton Era, the Saints have played 107 games with a joker back and 69 without.

Win Percentage with Joker:

With Joker: .617 or 9.8 wins per season
Without Joker: .507 or 8.1 wins per season

For obvious reasons, when C.J. Spiller was on the field, it counts as no joker.

More importantly, there’s only been four seasons in which the joker (again that’s Bush and Sproles) have played the full 16 game seasons: 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013. In those seasons, the Saints have averaged 11.75 wins — they were the best four seasons of the era. For better context, the average number of wins for Saints teams with an injured joker or no joker at is…you guessed it…7.7. All five of the team’s 7 win seasons came without a player like Kamara — he’s important.

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Just gonna drop these Reddit nuggets here.

 

2019 Cap Hits

**1 - Colts $43.8 Mil (Luck - 27.5, Hilton - 15, Ware - 1.2)**

**2 - Lions $43.3 Mil (Stafford - 29.5, Jones - 9.2, Riddick - 4.6)**

**3 - Vikings $43.2 Mil (Cousins - 29, Diggs - 12.7, Cook - 1.7)**

**4 - Chargers $40.8 Mil (Rivers - 23, Allen - 12.2, Gordon - 5.6)**

**5 - Raiders $40.6 Mil (Carr - 22.5, AB - 15, Richard - 3.1)**

And cap percentage

Same thing, I dance if you get 20 upvotes

Edit: you ********. Hold on

**Edit 2:**

1 - Colts: Luck, Hilton, and Ware are **23.25%** of their 2019 Cap

2 - Lions: Stafford, Jones, and Riddick are **23.01%** of their 2019 Cap

3 - Vikings: Cousins, Diggs, and Cook are **22.96%** of their 2019 Cap

4 - Chargers: Rivers, Allen, and Gordon are **21.66%** of their 2019 Cap

5 - Raiders: Carr, AB, and Richard are **21.55%** of their 2019 Cap

 

 

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1 hour ago, Vandy said:

Agree with most of this.

Main thing you guys need to worry about on Kamara is risk of injury. Plus as we well know in ATL, 2nd contracts are tricky for RBs....

Think you guys will miss Ingram? I do.

Yeah, I'm definitely not a fan of us letting Ingram walk. It's not like he was asking for an outrageous amount, we offered $500K less than what Baltimore offered and Ingram's dumb*** agent (after convincing Ingram he could get him $8M/year) got into a pissing match with Loomis while trying to play hardball and Loomis went out and signed their Plan B for cheaper.

I also don't want Kamara being overworked so I'm glad we have somewhat of a contingency plan with Murray to take the load off slightly. We had to overwork him the first four games last year with Ingram's suspension and his YPC really suffered the rest of the year because of it (his YPC dropped a full yard and a half from his rookie year).

56 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

It’s your forum that taught me about the importance of Satellite backs in SP’s offense.  The numbers were quite eye opening.  

The satellite back in our offense does have it's place, but Kamara is more than that. He literally can do it all. He's a faster, more agile Pierre Thomas.

51 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Then came Darren Sproles, who burned hot and fast in the Saints’ offense. His 2011 performance is so staggeringly good, his integration into the system so complete, that it’s hard to remember that he wasn’t actually on the squad that won a title.

The transition to Sproles was so seamless that it came as a shock when the Saints failed to replace him after Sproles was traded in the first great blood-letting, in 2013.

Between Travaris Cadet and C.J. Spiller, watching the Saints try to plug the hole left by Bush and Sproles with broken and inadequate players has contributed to the malaise around this team. The Saints are better — and more importantly more exciting — when they have a reliable joker on the field.

It’s not hard science, but since the beginning of the Sean Payton Era, the Saints have played 107 games with a joker back and 69 without.

Win Percentage with Joker:

With Joker: .617 or 9.8 wins per season
Without Joker: .507 or 8.1 wins per season

For obvious reasons, when C.J. Spiller was on the field, it counts as no joker.

More importantly, there’s only been four seasons in which the joker (again that’s Bush and Sproles) have played the full 16 game seasons: 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013. In those seasons, the Saints have averaged 11.75 wins — they were the best four seasons of the era. For better context, the average number of wins for Saints teams with an injured joker or no joker at is…you guessed it…7.7. All five of the team’s 7 win seasons came without a player like Kamara — he’s important.

As I said, I wouldn't consider an offense that improved its previous year's ranking (both points and yardage wise) as struggling to replace a role. If anything, it made the 2014 Saints offense less predictable than when Sproles or Bush would come on the field. When those two came on the field, opposing defenses largely knew it was going to be a pass play more times than not. The same when Ivory or the first few years of Ingram would come onto the field, it was likely a running play. Thomas was the only RB where the run/pass percentage with him in the game was near 50-50 and that's the kind of balance we have with Kamara in the backfield now. Defenses are scared ****less of the receiving threat he poses, but they know he can run between the tackles and hit holes too so they can't cheat out to their coverage responsibilities too early.

As for the "win percentage with/without a joker", that again can largely be appropriated to how bad our defense was any given year. For example in those four years listed (2006, 2009, 2011, and 2013) where we had a joker for all 16 games, only the 2009 defense was ranked outside the top half of the league in points surrendered (they were 20th, but were also 3rd in turnovers). The 2006 and 2011 defenses were both ranked 13th in points and the 2013 defense was ranked 4th in points and yards.

Look at the 2010 season. Bush broke his leg in Week 2 against the 49ers, missed 8 games, and had 358 total yards on the season. That's a season you can consider we didn't exactly have a joker outside of Week 1. However, the joker-less offense was still 6th in yards and 11th in points and won 11 games because the defense was top-10 in both yards and points (7th in points, 4th in yards).

And I'm wondering who wrote that though, mainly because the last line. 2 of those 7-win seasons did come with a joker RB, Bush played 12 games in 2007 and Sproles played 13 games in 2012. What those 5 seasons of 7-9 do have in common though...

  • 2007: 25th in points (24.3 ppg), 26th in yards (348.1 ypg)
  • 2012: 31st in points (28.4 ppg), 32nd in yards (440.1 ypg, NFL record)
  • 2014: 28th in points (26.5 ppg), 31st in yards (384.0 ypg)
  • 2015: 32nd in points (29.8 ppg), 31st in yards (413.4 ypg)
  • 2016: 31st in points (28.4 ppg), 27th in yards (375.4 ypg)

In 2007, 2014, and 2015, our defense gave up more points than our potent offense scored (two of the 3 were top-10 offenses). In 2012 and 2015 they also gave up more yards than our offense gained; both those years our offense was 2nd in yards

In the two years our offense did manage to outscore what the inept defense gave up (2012 and 2016), it was only by 0.6 and 0.9 ppg. Both those years our offense was top-5 in points (3rd and 2nd, respectively) and the defense was second to last. Think about that though: a defense giving up ~1 ppg less than what a top-5 offense averages for the year.

In 2015, our defense gave up 4.3 ppg and 9.6 ypg more than our offense scored/gained, that was 8th and 2nd in the league in those same categories. That can't be pinned on not having a satellite back. That's just piss-poor defense.

Here are our offensive numbers those seasons if you want to compare how bad those defenses were to a perennial top offense.

  • 2007 Saints offense - 12th in points (23.7 ppg), 4th in yards (361.3 ypg)
  • 2012 Saints offense - 3rd in points (28.8 ppg), 2nd in yards (410.9 ypg)
  • 2014 Saints offense - 9th in points (25.1 ppg), (411.4 ypg)
  • 2015 Saints offense - 8th in points (25.5 ppg), 2nd in yards (403.8 ypg)
  • 2016 Saints offense - 2nd in points (29.3 ppg), 1st in yards (426.0 ypg)

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5 hours ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Nice info.

Wilson and Little Bennie don’t seem like 5 mill a year better than Ryan

Wilson is, Ben nah

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Free still overpaid IMO.  Great back when healthy, though. So much depends on him this year

Contracts can’t be based on future health unless the guy has already been injured. There’s just no way to know future injuries. Free is not overpaid at all. When healthy he earns every penny. And I’m not gonna dog him for injuries. I hate when people do that. As if Drose and Grant Hill chose to suck the rest of their careers. 

Edited by NeonDeion
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5 hours ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

Honestly I think RB’s are such a unique case.  Their number should never count against the CAP, and their rookie contract should expire after 2 years.  Their bodies are simply broken sooner than other positions. It’s similar to a QB taking 150 sacks per year

I agree with this 100%. I can never get upset at any running back trying to.squeeze every penny out of a contract. 

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Just now, FalconsIn2020 said:

Yeah, not buying Wilson being 5 mill a year better than Ryan.  That’s absurd

when you say 5 mil a year it seems worse than it is. 35 mil vs. 30 mil, I think saying Wilson is 17% better than Ryan isn't absurd at all.

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Just now, Kayoh said:

when you say 5 mil a year it seems worse than it is. 35 mil vs. 30 mil, I think saying Wilson is 17% better than Ryan isn't absurd at all.

You really believe he is 17% better?  Wow. 

I mean, Russ has some real devout supporters on here.  I just don’t see it.  Top 7-8 QB, but certainly not a slam dunk better than Ryan

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1 minute ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

You really believe he is 17% better?  Wow. 

I mean, Russ has some real devout supporters on here.  I just don’t see it.  Top 7-8 QB, but certainly not a slam dunk better than Ryan

I genuinely believe Russ is in a tier of his own as the best QB in the NFL right now. He doesn't get the volume that other guys get but he is legitimately one of the most efficient QBs in the league and he's doing it with very little OL help and very poor receiving options. Baldwin has been his only legit receiving threat since Golden Tate went to Detroit and he was a shadow of himself last season, plus now even he's gone.

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13 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

I genuinely believe Russ is in a tier of his own as the best QB in the NFL right now. He doesn't get the volume that other guys get but he is legitimately one of the most efficient QBs in the league and he's doing it with very little OL help and very poor receiving options. Baldwin has been his only legit receiving threat since Golden Tate went to Detroit and he was a shadow of himself last season, plus now even he's gone.

I respect your take on him.  I disagree for a few reasons, but I do think Carroll has done him very few favors the last few years. Cable shouldn’t be allowed near an OL ever again.

But Russ has limitations.  Every player does, but Russ’s height ultimately is why he has poor pocket awareness.  

The Russ that went to back to back SB’s was surrounded by incredible talent on both sides of the ball.  That Russ isn’t anywhere close to Ryan.  The current Russ, the one without a playoff win since 2015, is very different.  Far better than his 2014 self

 

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3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2020 said:

I respect your take on him.  I disagree for a few reasons, but I do think Carroll has done him very few favors the last few years. Cable shouldn’t be allowed near an OL ever again.

But Russ has limitations.  Every player does, but Russ’s height ultimately is why he has poor pocket awareness.  

The Russ that went to back to back SB’s was surrounded by incredible talent on both sides of the ball.  That Russ isn’t anywhere close to Ryan.  The current Russ, the one without a playoff win since 2015, is very different.  Far better.  

I definitely agree that 2015-current Russ is something special. The last time Matt had to deal with being as talent depleted as Russ was in 2018 was probably like 2015, and even then he had Julio. Honestly there's an argument to be made that Matt has never been on a team with as poor of an offensive supporting cast as the 2018 Seahawks.

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59 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

I definitely agree that 2015-current Russ is something special. The last time Matt had to deal with being as talent depleted as Russ was in 2018 was probably like 2015, and even then he had Julio. Honestly there's an argument to be made that Matt has never been on a team with as poor of an offensive supporting cast as the 2018 Seahawks.

Not.taking anything away from.Russ but its a push. I think its difficult to m ake an argumemt that either are better tyan the other. 

On tge other side I dont think.Ryan has had as good of defnsive support that Russ has enjoyed.

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Just now, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Not.taking anything away from.Russ but its a push. I think its difficult to m ake an argumemt that either are better tyan the other. 

On tge other side I dont think.Ryan has had as good of defnsive support that Russ has enjoyed.

good defense doesn't make it easier to be an efficient passer on offense

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2 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

good defense doesn't make it easier to be an efficient passer on offense

Sure  it.does. Passing while trailing is going to be less.efficient. Passing with a lead or tied is much easier.

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9 minutes ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Sure  it.does. Passing while trailing is going to be less.efficient. Passing with a lead or tied is much easier.

not significantly. Check this article out for more info. While QB efficiency is slightly better when leading, that could also just be explained by the fact that the lead was attained in the first place because the defense is worse than defenses that are less likely to allow opposing teams to get a lead on them in the first place. Chicken or the egg type situation.

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Posted (edited)

5 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

not significantly. Check this article out for more info. While QB efficiency is slightly better when leading, that could also just be explained by the fact that the lead was attained in the first place because the defense is worse than defenses that are less likely to allow opposing teams to get a lead on them in the first place. Chicken or the egg type situation.

Just makes.sense passing wou ld be more.efficient when tye offense can be balanced and defenses must respect the run and pass. Passing ag ainst prevent defenses whioe down multiple scores couod make those stats closer than they are in reality. 

Dont take me.as.argumentative im just throwing out ideas. Thanks for the article, its suprising to me.

And im sorry that the typos makes my responses.so.difficult.to rea d

Edited by ATLSlobberKnockers
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10 hours ago, Kayoh said:

when you say 5 mil a year it seems worse than it is. 35 mil vs. 30 mil, I think saying Wilson is 17% better than Ryan isn't absurd at all.

You really don’t? LOL, I suggest you insert a decimal if not two in your “analysis” there bud. That’s crazy talk.

17% better my ***. 

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2 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Not.taking anything away from.Russ but its a push. I think its difficult to m ake an argumemt that either are better tyan the other. 

On tge other side I dont think.Ryan has had as good of defnsive support that Russ has enjoyed.

Matt’s my QB, but Wilson is a slight notch above IMO. 

Much Better D, but not near the offensive weapons to work with Matt has had throughout their careers.

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28 minutes ago, Vandy said:

Matt’s my QB, but Wilson is a slight notch above IMO. 

Much Better D, but not near the offensive weapons to work with Matt has had throughout their careers.

I can.see the point of view, but Ryan being a top qb in three different systems gives him the edge to me. Russ has be nefited from superior and stable.coaching. I do like wilsons ability to make.something from nothing, but I.love Matts ability to make ****e olines look good, stand in the .pocket,.deliver strikes and take a beating doing so. y

They both make some pretty bad olines look.adequate

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14 hours ago, VTCrunkler said:

Not for long. Eventually those other guys ,like Wentz, will get paid. 

Wentz makes more than Matt.

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4 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

I can.see the point of view, but Ryan being a top qb in three different systems gives him the edge to me. Russ has be nefited from superior and stable.coaching. I do like wilsons ability to make.something from nothing, but I.love Matts ability to make ****e olines look good, stand in the .pocket,.deliver strikes and take a beating doing so. y

They both make some pretty bad olines look.adequate

About as objective a take one can make.  

I’m firmly in the Ryan over Wilson camp.  But can see why people may prefer Wilson for his mobility and better touch on his throws.

But it’s a 2-3% gap for Ryan or Wilson.  And in no way is it a slam dunk.  Ryan lacks Wilson mobility yet he still has a better passer rating & more yards under pressure.  Wilson has more TD’s under pressure

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21 hours ago, VTCrunkler said:

Not for long. Eventually those other guys ,like Wentz, will get paid. 

Your right , personally i think wentz isnt much better than a sverage qb , dallas will be hit hard too unless they let elliot test the market 

 

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