Falcons Fan MVP

Do you think Dirk Koetter's play calling is outdated for today's NFL?

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Do you guys think that Dirk Koetter's play calling is outdated for today's NFL? Some Falcons fans I've spoken to thinks that it is. Do you guys have any concerns about Dirk Koetter's play calling? Or do you think our talent should be enough to mask any weaknesses Dirk Koetter may have?

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Im a bit confused on this as if im not mistaken he ran an offense last year and had a better overall offense than we did here on a team with a much worse QB and much worse talent overall.   If anything to me that proves his offense worked very well in this day and age when it can finish in the top 3 with that  crop of talent they had him rolling out there.

Like literally if you go down the list matching every player we have at the skill position from top to bottom and even some of the O-line.  The Falcons have a better player at pretty much every position. 

Ryan >>>>> Winston this ones not even close
Freeman or Teco last year > Barber
Julio > Evans
Ridley > Humphries
Sanu > Jackson - This one and ridley vs humphries is close but our guys were better with more upside.
Hooper = Howard - This one was close as well and might go Howard but it's debatable.
Mack and Matthews are better than anything on their O-line.  Marpet i heard is pretty good though.

The fact they finished within .3 points of our avg per game and finished 3rd in total offense in the nfl yardage wise is a credit to what Dirk can actually do which is impressive to me.

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9 minutes ago, Falcons Fan MVP said:

Do you guys think that Dirk Koetter's play calling is outdated for today's NFL? Some Falcons fans I've spoken to thinks that it is. Do you guys have any concerns about Dirk Koetter's play calling? Or do you think our talent should be enough to mask any weaknesses Dirk Koetter may have?

Under Koetter, Matt Ryan was often called "a poor man's Eli Manning", and no one called him "elite" other than some on this board.

Under Shanahan he became a league MVP and was one running play from a Super Bowl MVP candidate.

Under Sark he put up better statistics than in his MVP season. But the overall offense suffered from Sark's uninspired play calling.

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1 minute ago, Kayoh said:

lol no he didn't


Actually it's pretty dang compareable and im not a sark defender i wanted him long gone and didn't like him really.  But theirs no denying Ryan was right there in 2018 where he was in 2016 and actually had a much worse O-line blocking for him and no running game as good as 2016.   If anything i think he had a better season last year than his mvp season  literally identical numbers  37 total td's to 7 int's  68+% completion% and 4900+ yards in both seasons.  But in 2018 is was with less help than his mvp season.

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Posted (edited)

OK, not better. But comparable.

Matt Ryan's career stats

And last year he produced comparable stats to his MVP season without Freeman as a runner and receiving option, and with no defense to take some pressure off the offense.

My point being that as much as we legitimately griped about Sarkesian, he still got more out of Matt Ryan and the offense than Koetter ever did.

Edited by Roanoke Falcon
Summation

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Just now, FalconFan13 said:

Actually it's pretty dang compareable and im not a sark defender i wanted him long gone and didn't like him really.  But theirs no denying Ryan was right there in 2018 where he was in 2016 and actually had a much worse O-line blocking for him and no running game as good as 2016.   If anything i think he had a better season last year than his mvp season  literally identical numbers  37 total td's to 7 int's  68+% completion% and 4900+ yards in both seasons.  But in 2018 is was with less help than his mvp season.

the only thing that was comparable was if you just look at the # of TDs and yards at face value without taking anything else into account.

2016: 9.03 ANY/A

2017: 6.87 ANY/A
2018: 7.71 ANY/A

his 2018 was the 2nd best season of his career but to say it was comparable to his 2016 is just ignoring the fact that he put up his 2016 numbers (which were still slightly better than 2018) despite throwing the ball 74 fewer times. That's a huge difference.

Drew4719, FalconsIn2012, vel and 1 other like this

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1 minute ago, Kayoh said:

the only thing that was comparable was if you just look at the # of TDs and yards at face value without taking anything else into account.

2016: 9.03 ANY/A

2017: 6.87 ANY/A
2018: 7.71 ANY/A

his 2018 was the 2nd best season of his career but to say it was comparable to his 2016 is just ignoring the fact that he put up his 2016 numbers (which were still slightly better than 2018) despite throwing the ball 74 fewer times. That's a huge difference.

Where as i'll give you that he did it with fewer attempts you also can't discredit that he put up close to identical numbers with a worse supporting cast and a worse offensive coordinator.   That surely has to count for something to make up for those other attempts.  The fact he played at that high of a level to even come close to the mvp season numbers behind that crap sammich of a O-line is crazy impressive.

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2 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

the only thing that was comparable was if you just look at the # of TDs and yards at face value without taking anything else into account.

2016: 9.03 ANY/A

2017: 6.87 ANY/A
2018: 7.71 ANY/A

his 2018 was the 2nd best season of his career but to say it was comparable to his 2016 is just ignoring the fact that he put up his 2016 numbers (which were still slightly better than 2018) despite throwing the ball 74 fewer times. That's a huge difference.

2018's lack of offensive line, injury to Freeman, and lack of any resemblance of a defense made Matt Ryan's 2018 performance more impressive, not less, in my opinion.

However, even you said 2018 under Sark was his second best season. So even a dropoff from Shanahan's numbers under Sarkesian was still better than anything Koetter got out of Matt in particular, and our offense in general.

Your argument accentuated my point.

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Just now, FalconFan13 said:

Where as i'll give you that he did it with fewer attempts you also can't discredit that he put up close to identical numbers with a worse supporting cast and a worse offensive coordinator.   That surely has to count for something to make up for those other attempts.  The fact he played at that high of a level to even come close to the mvp season numbers behind that crap sammich of a O-line is crazy impressive.

he put up worse numbers with a worse supporting cast and a worse offensive coordinator

he didn't come close to his MVP season numbers if you look past counting stats at face value

stop with this narrative. It's okay to acknowledge that he had a better 2016 than 2018.

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Just now, Roanoke Falcon said:

2018's lack of offensive line, injury to Freeman, and lack of any resemblance of a defense made Matt Ryan's 2018 performance more impressive, not less, in my opinion.

However, even you said 2018 under Sark was his second best season. So even a dropoff from Shanahan's numbers under Sarkesian was still better than anything Koetter got out of Matt in particular, and our offense in general.

Your argument accentuated my point.

oh I'm not necessarily trying to say Koetter>Sark by any means. I hate that we fired both our coordinators when the OL was hot garbage and the entire middle of the D got ravaged by injuries. But it happened and now we're probably going to be worse for it. I've accepted it and I'm okay with it.

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Just now, Kayoh said:

he put up worse numbers with a worse supporting cast and a worse offensive coordinator

he didn't come close to his MVP season numbers if you look past counting stats at face value

stop with this narrative. It's okay to acknowledge that he had a better 2016 than 2018.

I didn't say 2016 wasn't better but i did say 2018 was very close to it. Rather you want to admit that or not is up to you which i don't really care if you want to or not it's your opinion and i have mine :)

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1 minute ago, Kayoh said:

oh I'm not necessarily trying to say Koetter>Sark by any means. I hate that we fired both our coordinators when the OL was hot garbage and the entire middle of the D got ravaged by injuries. But it happened and now we're probably going to be worse for it. I've accepted it and I'm okay with it.

Fair enough.

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5 minutes ago, FalconFan13 said:

I didn't say 2016 wasn't better but i did say 2018 was very close to it. Rather you want to admit that or not is up to you which i don't really care if you want to or not it's your opinion and i have mine :)

if you were to make a ranked list of every 16 game QB season in NFL history, sorted by ANY/A, 2016 Matt Ryan would rank 2nd behind 2004 Peyton Manning. 2018 Matt Ryan ranks 31st.

If you adjust for year, since 2018 had such a massive explosion of passing production/efficiency, 2016 Ryan ranks 4th behind 04 Manning, 84 Marino, and 07 Brady, and 2018 Ryan drops all the way down to 83rd.

He had a good season - a really good season, even. But it wasn't anywhere close to as good as his MVP season.

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2 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

if you were to make a ranked list of every 16 game QB season in NFL history, sorted by ANY/A, 2016 Matt Ryan would rank 2nd behind 2004 Peyton Manning. 2018 Matt Ryan ranks 31st.

and this tells me you are a big fan of adjusted net yards per pass attempt which is a absolutely fine thing to like and support.  You are acting like im saying the 2016 season was complete garbage and are acting like im saying the 2018 season was the best ever.  Which im not im saying that compared to what he had to work with in 2016 vs 2018 to even come close to those numbers without actually having much more int's and bad play took more effort by him to get there which means to me shows he personally himself probably played better where as the team as a whole played better in 2016 to make it easier for him.

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10 minutes ago, FalconFan13 said:

and this tells me you are a big fan of adjusted net yards per pass attempt which is a absolutely fine thing to like and support.  You are acting like im saying the 2016 season was complete garbage and are acting like im saying the 2018 season was the best ever.  Which im not im saying that compared to what he had to work with in 2016 vs 2018 to even come close to those numbers without actually having much more int's and bad play took more effort by him to get there which means to me shows he personally himself probably played better where as the team as a whole played better in 2016 to make it easier for him.

I just disagree. He's the same dude, his play hasn't gotten better at all, and that's okay because he's a really good player. He had downgrades at OC and across the OL and his play wasn't as good. I don't get the whole "he was practically as good as his MVP season in 2018" narrative or where it comes from but it's blatantly untrue and dishonest. He had almost as many yards and TDs, sure, but he did that on significantly fewer attempts, in a season that saw a massive explosion of passing efficiency, and all that stuff matters. It needs to matter. It's okay to say he was notably worse in 2018 than he was in 2016, he was still really really good. He was just all-time great in 2016 and saying his 2018 was in any way close to as good as that season is doing that 2016 season an injustice imo.

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2 minutes ago, Kayoh said:

I just disagree. He's the same dude, his play hasn't gotten better at all, and that's okay because he's a really good player. He had downgrades at OC and across the OL and his play wasn't as good. I don't get the whole "he was practically as good as his MVP season in 2018" narrative or where it comes from but it's blatantly untrue and dishonest. He had almost as many yards and TDs, sure, but he did that on significantly fewer attempts, in a season that saw a massive explosion of passing efficiency, and all that stuff matters. It needs to matter. It's okay to say he was notably worse in 2018 than he was in 2016, he was still really really good. He was just all-time great in 2016 and saying his 2018 was in any way close to as good as that season is doing that 2016 season an injustice imo.

There is more to life and quarterbacking than one meaningless stat. YPA is like every other stat if taken in  a vacuum: an imperfect and incomplete reflection of the whole.

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1 minute ago, Roanoke Falcon said:

There is more to life and quarterbacking than one meaningless stat. YPA is like every other stat if taken in  a vacuum: an imperfect and incomplete reflection of the whole.

ANY/A takes passing yards, TDs, INTs, sacks, sack yards, and pass attempts all into account.

I do like YPA, sure, but ANY/A tells you a lot more about a QB's performance.

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1 hour ago, quotemokc said:

Absolutely no one here should even try to argue with you until you provide an example of how his play calling is "outdated

1 hour ago, FalconFan13 said:


Actually it's pretty dang compareable and im not a sark defender i wanted him long gone and didn't like him really.  But theirs no denying Ryan was right there in 2018 where he was in 2016 and actually had a much worse O-line blocking for him and no running game as good as 2016.   If anything i think he had a better season last year than his mvp season  literally identical numbers  37 total td's to 7 int's  68+% completion% and 4900+ yards in both seasons.  But in 2018 is was with less help than his mvp season.

He was playing from behind a lot. 

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Koetter's offense is probably more in vogue than Shanahan's to be honest. Shanahan has always done his own thing to be honest, often going against recent trends.

Last year the 49ers rolled out the 21 personnel grouping (2 backs & 1 TE) on 42% of their offensive plays - that was highest in the league and 14% more from the next highest team. They also jointly led the league in the use of the 22 personnel grouping (2 backs & 2 TE's).

Elsewhere around the league the trend is towards 11 personnel groupings (1 back & 1 TE). League-wide it was used around 60% of the time. The Ram's, considered one of the most explosive and trendy offenses right now, used it on 87% of their snaps.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/06/nfl-personnel-groupings-11-personnel-12-personnel-21-personnel

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2 hours ago, Kayoh said:

I just disagree. He's the same dude, his play hasn't gotten better at all, and that's okay because he's a really good player. He had downgrades at OC and across the OL and his play wasn't as good. I don't get the whole "he was practically as good as his MVP season in 2018" narrative or where it comes from but it's blatantly untrue and dishonest. He had almost as many yards and TDs, sure, but he did that on significantly fewer attempts, in a season that saw a massive explosion of passing efficiency, and all that stuff matters. It needs to matter. It's okay to say he was notably worse in 2018 than he was in 2016, he was still really really good. He was just all-time great in 2016 and saying his 2018 was in any way close to as good as that season is doing that 2016 season an injustice imo.

You mean on more pass attempts, right? Ryan threw the ball an average of about 38 times a game in 2018 compared to roughly 34 times in 2016. 

If Ryan did it on fewer pass attempts than in 2016 then his YPA would be closer to 10, which would be insane given the circumstances.

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He has very recent success, (Last Year) at running an offense with much less talent then we do and produced great results.

Koetter to me is good cause he is very adaptable and can adjust to the talent and scheme they are used to.

A lot of OC's are stuck in a particular "scheme" and try and shoe horn talent around it, Koetter is the opposite where he can run whatever scheme is best for the roster he has.

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