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Under 24 hours to sign Grady - Is it gonna happen?


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My prediction: If Falcons don’t re-sign Grady, TATF will complain. If Falcons do re-sign Grady, it will also be a beitchfest when the numbers come out.

Oh, so you are just a full blown troll.  Got it.

Grady wants 22 million next year which is way more than we are willing to pay. He’s hitting his stride and already let it be known he wants to hit the open market. He’s going to play his heart out thi

@g-dawg

How close to this will the numbers be IYO

If the Falcons are going to lock him up, it’s not going to be easy. According to a new projection by Over the Cap in conjunction with Pro Football Focus, Jarrett’s next deal should be worth $82.5 million over the course of five years with a total of $46 million guarantees.

Jason Fitzgerald says Jarrett’s best pro comparison is Malik Jackson of the Jaguars but his contract is outdated. Instead, he says Jarrett’s deal will be influenced by the ones Kawann Short and Geno Atkins signed.

The best comparable player for Jarrett is Malik Jackson of the Jaguars. . .  Jackson’s contract is also outdated and worth about $17.5 million if we adjust it for salary cap inflation. The blocks to hit that will likely be the Atkins deal and Kawann Short contracts which were signed in 2018 and 2017.”

Adjusting for said inflation with those deals as a baseline seems fair. That doesn’t necessarily mean Jarrett’s representation will accept that baseline, though. The Falcons could not get a deal done with Jarrett last offseason and there have been reports that the front office and his agent are far apart on the numbers. While Jarrett can’t expect to command Aaron Donald money, he has earned a massive raise and if Atlanta doesn’t pay, some other team will.

 

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25 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

I like the 'double dip at DT logic'

Seeing as how there is 1 good/decent DT on the roster I think it's safe to say good DTs don't grow on trees and the Falcons haven't had the best of luck finding them.

The Falcons needed to double dip on DTs 2 years ago WITH Grady on the roster.  Instead they took a WR and Corner....

Grady's agent knows he has the Falcons where he wants them because...

1.  Good DTs are hard to come by in the NFL so there's a HUGE market

2.  He's only 26!

3.  The Falcons painted themselves into a corner by ignoring the trenches the last few years.

I said it last season... Every play Grady made added a million dollars to his contract.

It never ceases to amaze me how the Falcons get themselves into this situation....  The writing has been on the wall for over a year and the Falcons have given themselves ZERO leverage...

All the leverage Grady has is negated by the tag. If he could negotiate with other teams, then yeah, lots of leverage, on the tag, no leverage.

 

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Just now, ButSkiuup said:

Top 5 at his position is horrible? More like deserved contract 

I said a horrible contract. Donald money for Grady is a horrible contract.  If he really wants to be paid like Donald, or more than Donald, then let him play on the franchise tag this year, tag him next year and trade him.

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10 minutes ago, Cole World said:

 

YES, and all that is factored into the negotiations.   I believe Falcons will pay higher than that average and make a generous offer but it won't be a stupid offer.

I see 5yrs, $90mm with $54mm guaranteed.    Basically Falcons are guaranteeing the first three years of contract and $18mm/yr average which is probably $1-2mm/yr overpay now but will look good going forward as salaries increase.

While Grady and the agent want more,  They have to be willing to risk $38mm in guarantees today to play under franchise tag this year - all for hoping to squeeze out an extra $2-3mm/yr on the average salary.

Falcons have always been fair w/ their free agents and pay them market money.   I seriously doubt Grady would get much more than$18mm/yr on the open market - if at all.

In real estate, the agent is required to present the offer to the client, whether the agent likes the offer or not.   I believe the player should accept the offer if it comes in - or ends up - as I presented.

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2 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Why would you let him walk for 3rd round comp pick that you wouldn’t receive until 2021?

You can tag him again, Trade him prior to 2020 draft, and should get a pick or package of picks better than 3rd rounder - and the kicker is you get the pick in 2020.

NO, you don’t “let him walk”.  Use your leverage.

I didn’t say it was smart. I just think that’s what they will do

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3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

YES, and all that is factored into the negotiations.   I believe Falcons will pay higher than that average and make a generous offer but it won't be a stupid offer.

I see 5yrs, $90mm with $54mm guaranteed.    Basically Falcons are guaranteeing the first three years of contract and $18mm/yr average which is probably $1-2mm/yr overpay now but will look good going forward as salaries increase.

While Grady and the agent want more,  They have to be willing to risk $38mm in guarantees today to play under franchise tag this year - all for hoping to squeeze out an extra $2-3mm/yr on the average salary.

Falcons have always been fair w/ their free agents and pay them market money.   I seriously doubt Grady would get much more than$18mm/yr on the open market - if at all.

In real estate, the agent is required to present the offer to the client, whether the agent likes the offer or not.   I believe the player should accept the offer if it comes in - or ends up - as I presented.

If CJ Mosley can get more than Kuechly and Wagner then Grady could easily get Donald money from someone.

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14 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

If CJ Mosley can get more than Kuechly and Wagner then Grady could easily get Donald money from someone.

disagree.   Aaron Donald is a unicorn and basically produces top notch pressure/sacks at a rate like a premier defensive end - he has transcended his position and positional value in a way no other defensive player has in modern NFL history.   Kuechly is dayum good and so is Mosely but LB is just different.   Granted, Mosely got a ridiculous contract but I don't see how that situation matters as there is not near the daylight between Kuechly/Mosely as there is between Donald/Jarrett.

Moreover, Kuechly's contract was signed in 2015 - 4 freaking years ago.  Kuechly's contract is out of date in the same way that Julio Jones' contract is out of date.

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39 minutes ago, falconidae said:

I said a horrible contract. Donald money for Grady is a horrible contract.  If he really wants to be paid like Donald, or more than Donald, then let him play on the franchise tag this year, tag him next year and trade him.

If he wants to be paid like Donald, he should perform like Donald. Grady is not the most dominant player on this team, let alone this defense. He's not Aaron Donald. Not even close. I doubt he'll get a contract like that though

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1 minute ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

If he wants to be paid like Donald, he should perform like Donald. Grady is not the most dominant player on this team, let alone this defense. He's not Aaron Donald. Not even close. I doubt he'll get a contract like that though

That's what I meant by horrible contract-severely overpaying to keep him. 

Will say, never seen anything directly from Grady's camp about dollar amounts. It may be the hangup is years, not dollars, for example. We don't know. If he does want 22 mil+ a year, yeah, he can try to get that from another team.

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2 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

If he wants to be paid like Donald, he should perform like Donald. Grady is not the most dominant player on this team, let alone this defense. He's not Aaron Donald. Not even close. I doubt he'll get a contract like that though

Who knows what is happening behind closed doors.   Let's take the premise that Grady's agent (also Donald's agent) is asking for Aaron Donald money.

Falcons position would be: 

"Grady (and Todd/Agent) we absolutely love you and what you bring to our team.  We have total belief in you but we cannot pay you Aaron Donald money until you prove you have Aaron Donald's production.   Here is what we can do for you - we can franchise you the next two years - give us two years of Aaron Donald's production and we will produce for you a longer term contract in the Aaron Donald neighborhood."

It's just that simple.  Otherwise, you look at other DTs that have signed contracts recently and use those as baselines and adjust for increases in salary cap since those were signed.   This shouldn't be that hard - and more than likely it isn't - obviously Todd France is trying to prove something and probably has more to do w/ headlines for him and his business.

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2 minutes ago, falconidae said:

That's what I meant by horrible contract-severely overpaying to keep him. 

Will say, never seen anything directly from Grady's camp about dollar amounts. It may be the hangup is years, not dollars, for example. We don't know. If he does want 22 mil+ a year, yeah, he can try to get that from another team.

And the thing is, the only team that's going to do that is a team without a QB and tons of money to spend. 

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8 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Ugh

 

12 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

disagree.   Aaron Donald is a unicorn and basically produces top notch pressure/sacks at a rate like a premier defensive end - he has transcended his position and positional value in a way no other defensive player has in modern NFL history.   Kuechly is dayum good and so is Mosely but LB is just different.   Granted, Mosely got a ridiculous contract but I don't see how that situation matters as there is not near the daylight between Kuechly/Mosely as there is between Donald/Jarrett.

Moreover, Kuechly's contract was signed in 2015 - 4 freaking years ago.  Kuechly's contract is out of date in the same way that Julio Jones' contract is out of date.

Y'all can disagree if you want. But players get overpaid hard in FA all the time.

Mosley and Collins showed that again this year.

If his "market value" is 18mil then teams are going to be having to outbid each other, which means he's likely to get 20.

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2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Who knows what is happening behind closed doors.   Let's take the premise that Grady's agent (also Donald's agent) is asking for Aaron Donald money.

Falcons position would be: 

"Grady (and Todd/Agent) we absolutely love you and what you bring to our team.  We have total belief in you but we cannot pay you Aaron Donald money until you prove you have Aaron Donald's production.   Here is what we can do for you - we can franchise you the next two years - give us two years of Aaron Donald's production and we will produce for you a longer term contract in the Aaron Donald neighborhood."

It's just that simple.  Otherwise, you look at other DTs that have signed contracts recently and use those as baselines and adjust for increases in salary cap since those were signed.   This shouldn't be that hard - and more than likely it isn't - obviously Todd France is trying to prove something and probably has more to do w/ headlines for him and his business.

Right. And the Aaron Donald thing is definitely aiming high. Donald has multiple 1st team all pro awards. Grady has never made a pro bowl. I get trying to get as much as you possibly can. But hopefully his agent doesn't screw it up.

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8 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

If he wants to be paid like Donald, he should perform like Donald. Grady is not the most dominant player on this team, let alone this defense. He's not Aaron Donald. Not even close. I doubt he'll get a contract like that though

love Grady but this is where I'm at too. Debo is way more important to this defense. Donald is a freak of nature and IMO is underpaid for what he does at THAT position.

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1 minute ago, Yo_Lover said:

 

Y'all can disagree if you want. But players get overpaid hard in FA all the time.

Mosley and Collins showed that again this year.

If his "market value" is 18mil then teams are going to be having to outbid each other, which means he's likely to get 20.

I didn't necessarily disagree. I said "ugh" because you might be right. Lol

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2 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I didn't necessarily disagree. I said "ugh" because you might be right. Lol

I got you. I thought G would actually look at the percentage Kuechly and Wagner took up of the cap vs Mosley now when they signed their deals and see that they took up less percentage than Mosley does now but I guess that doesn't matter.

If anything Grady will look at Donald and say "well he signed his deal last year and the cap rose again, so he's underpaid and I should be getting this much"

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