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Dan Quinn calling plays vs Marquand Manuel and Richard Smith: Sacks and takeaways


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I did some research to see who what type of improvement we might see with Quinn calling the defense all season. Here's what I found.

 Richard Smith- 28 games- 44 sacks and 36 takeaways. He averaged 1.28 takeaways per game and 1.57 sacks per game

Marquand Manuel- 32 games- 76 sacks and 38 takeaways. He averaged 1.1875 takeaways per game and 2.375 sacks per game

Dan Quinn- 7 games(3 playoff games)- 19 sacks and 15 takeaways. He averaged 2.143 takeaways per game and 2.714 sacks per game

Do the math and you'll see that over 16 games the Falcons would have 44 sacks and 34 takeaways. The league average for sacks in 2018 was 40. So just above average. Takeaways is a different story. The league average in 2018 was 21. 34 takeaways would have put the Falcons behind only the Bears who had 36. If you do the average of 34 and 21 you get 28. Interestingly that would put the Falcons in a 4 way tie for the 5th most takeaways in 2018.

I think it's important to remember, Quinn had 4 rookies and Jalen Collins starting for him when he was calling plays in 2016. Foye, Oliver and Senat will be the young players this time. All three showed flashes last year so it will be interesting to see how much improvement they show from year 1 to 2. Plus how are Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen going to look. Both are important to the success of the defense

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4 minutes ago, wnyfalconfan said:

I did some research to see who what type of improvement we might see with Quinn calling the defense all season. Here's what I found.

 Richard Smith- 28 games- 44 sacks and 36 takeaways. He averaged 1.28 takeaways per game and 1.57 sacks per game

Marquand Manuel- 32 games- 76 sacks and 38 takeaways. He averaged 1.1875 takeaways per game and 2.375 sacks per game

Dan Quinn- 7 games(3 playoff games)- 19 sacks and 15 takeaways. He averaged 2.143 takeaways per game and 2.714 sacks per game

Do the math and you'll see that over 16 games the Falcons would have 44 sacks and 34 takeaways. The league average for sacks in 2018 was 40. So just above average. Takeaways is a different story. The league average in 2018 was 21. 34 takeaways would have put the Falcons behind only the Bears who had 36. If you do the average of 34 and 21 you get 28. Interestingly that would put the Falcons in a 4 way tie for the 5th most takeaways in 2018.

I think it's important to remember, Quinn had 4 rookies and Jalen Collins starting for him when he was calling plays in 2016. Foye, Oliver and Senat will be the young players this time. All three showed flashes last year so it will be interesting to see how much improvement they show from year 1 to 2. Plus how are Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen going to look. Both are important to the success of the defense

Nice research, Man. Just with the eye test you can see guys flying around more with Quinn in charge.

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Good research but there is a fallacy in extrapolation. It would be safe to assume based on the small sample size that a DQ let d would be more productive and I think it can be. Better than the others for sure.  But if you took Vic’s sack total from 2016 and extrapolated it to the next two seasons he would be in the 40 s.  Instead he only got 11 more for the following two season.  

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35 minutes ago, Monolith2001 said:

Great analysis @wnyfalconfan.   While I am happy that DQ will be calling the D, I still hold him accountable for what went on when the other guys were calling plays on his behalf.  Hope our stats look great but I just want to win and get that ring.

Thanks. I don't blame you one bit for holding him accountable. He's made some odd decisions since he was hired. Hopefully we get that ring in the near future

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8 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

Good research but there is a fallacy in extrapolation. It would be safe to assume based on the small sample size that a DQ let d would be more productive and I think it can be. Better than the others for sure.  But if you took Vic’s sack total from 2016 and extrapolated it to the next two seasons he would be in the 40 s.  Instead he only got 11 more for the following two season.  

Thanks. I understand what you're saying and I should have made more of an effort to explain that I don't think the Falcons are going to achieve those numbers. Especially not 34 takeaways. 

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1 hour ago, VTCrunkler said:

Good research but there is a fallacy in extrapolation. It would be safe to assume based on the small sample size that a DQ let d would be more productive and I think it can be. Better than the others for sure.  But if you took Vic’s sack total from 2016 and extrapolated it to the next two seasons he would be in the 40 s.  Instead he only got 11 more for the following two season.  

I don’t think the fallacy is that as much as not acknowledging that when Quinn was calling the defense it was on the other side of one of the greatest offenses of all time.

Other teams had to play catch up so they became one dimensional.  In the instances where the Falcons offense would keep putting up points the other team would make mistakes.  In the instances where it couldn’t... the defense fell apart fairly quickly.

I think the defense will be better but I’m not expecting a dominating unit.

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35 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

Good post my dude. I do think we'll see a better defense this year. Maybe not the dominating defense I, @Knight of God, and @Vandy want but a defense that does create turnovers and gets the offense the ball back.

Thanks. I'm excited to see what tweaks Quinn is doing to the defense. Hopefully it's some things that help create more takeaways

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12 hours ago, Monolith2001 said:

Great analysis @wnyfalconfan.   While I am happy that DQ will be calling the D, I still hold him accountable for what went on when the other guys were calling plays on his behalf.  Hope our stats look great but I just want to win and get that ring.

Same here mono. DQ doesn’t get a pass for that cluster-**** of a defense falcons put out there last season.

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27 minutes ago, Sun Tzu 7 said:

I don’t think the fallacy is that as much as not acknowledging that when Quinn was calling the defense it was on the other side of one of the greatest offenses of all time.

Other teams had to play catch up so they became one dimensional.  In the instances where the Falcons offense would keep putting up points the other team would make mistakes.  In the instances where it couldn’t... the defense fell apart fairly quickly.

I think the defense will be better but I’m not expecting a dominating unit.

That’s a good point. The opponents were often forced to play catch up and therefore became more predictable. And weren’t exactly amazing until the playoffs. I mean holding GB to 0 points and the pats to 3 first half points were pretty good. 

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