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FalconsIn2012

Honeymoon Over for LaFleur?

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8 minutes ago, ya_boi_j said:

I don't even think the 2 even talked for quite some time after he was hired. According to reports Aaron was told specifically not to be the problem. Love Aaron as a player in the league but don't know if he's that good of a human being off the field.

 

Based reports on comments by his family, he isn't that good of a person.

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If only there was a way to show that putting it all on the QB isn't the best way to win in this league.

Oh, I know -- when A-a-ron won the Super Bowl, he only had two wins all season where he threw the ball more than 35 times.  Which is not to say he had only two GAMES all season where he threw more than 35 times.  Just to say of all those games, they only won two of them (one versus us in the playoffs in a game where we didn't force a punt the entire game).  Maybe we could start there.  And maybe A-a-ron could realize that the whole point of this offense is to keep the defense off balance by utilizing things like pre-snap motion, a blocking scheme that helps hide run vs. pass, and ........... wait for it ............. staying committed to the run even if the QB thinks he can dial up a better play ............ instead of letting Discount Double Check do whatever the **** he wants.

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2 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

If only there was a way to show that putting it all on the QB isn't the best way to win in this league.

Oh, I know -- when A-a-ron won the Super Bowl, he only had two wins all season where he threw the ball more than 35 times.  Which is not to say he had only two GAMES all season where he threw more than 35 times.  Just to say of all those games, they only won two of them (one versus us in the playoffs in a game where we didn't force a punt the entire game).  Maybe we could start there.  And maybe A-a-ron could realize that the whole point of this offense is to keep the defense off balance by utilizing things like pre-snap motion, a blocking scheme that helps hide run vs. pass, and ........... wait for it ............. staying committed to the run even if the QB thinks he can dial up a better play ............ instead of letting Discount Double Check do whatever the **** he wants.

Great point.  That Packers team had nice balance.  Just like us in 2016 and the Patriots pretty much every time they win a SB.  Like Koetter said, offensive balance is unquestionably the most difficult thing for a DC to deal with.

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37 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

wow, i really didnt think there was a qb who took as many sacks as MR over the course of time.  If Wilson wasnt so mobile he would take even more..

 

are there numbers for hits and hurries taken?

Wilson is sacked way more than any other QB since entering the NFL.  Some of it is poor line play and some of it is Russ holding onto the ball.  But this article shows that he doesn’t use his mobility to avoid sacks much

 

“Since entering the league in Wilson has been sacked more than any other quarterback in the NFL, and many fans are adamant that that number would be even higher if it weren’t for Wilson’s elusiveness and his legs bailing out the offensive line repeatedly.

 

But is that true?

Well, let’s take a look. Pro Football Focus is often mocked, largely rightfully so, for their grades, however, they do compile some absolutely fantastic signature stats that are a phenomenal value. In particular, they have data on the number of pressures every single quarterback in the NFL has faced covering the entirety of Wilson’s career. Thus, we can take a look and see how likely Wilson is to be sacked when he’s pressured compared to the NFL averages.

If Wilson is sacked more often when under pressure, then his legs don’t save sacks, they create them. If Wilson is sacked on a lower percentage of plays than other NFL quarterbacks when pressured, then his legs obviously save sacks. But enough with the **** chat, let’s get to the numbers.

Russell Wilson sack rate when pressured versus NFL average

SEASON NFL WIDE MEAN SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE NFL WIDE SACK RATE STANDARD DEVIATION MEDIAN SACK RATE RUSSELL WILSON SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE RUSSELL WILSON STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY FROM THE MEAN
SEASON NFL WIDE MEAN SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE NFL WIDE SACK RATE STANDARD DEVIATION MEDIAN SACK RATE RUSSELL WILSON SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE RUSSELL WILSON STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY FROM THE MEAN
2012 17.98 4.20 17.7 17.6 -0.091
2013 17.94 3.78 18.3 20.0 0.543
2014 17.57 4.69 16.7 16.7 -0.187
2015 16.04 4.04 16.3 18.1 0.508
2016 15.75 3.03 15.7 15.7 -0.017
2017 17.28 4.06 17.5 15.9 -0.340

This data covering Russell’s entire career makes a pretty compelling case that his legs don’t prevent sacks. He is sacked at almost the exact same rate when pressured as other quarterbacks in the NFL. Now, obviously, if he were under pressure less, he’d be sacked less, but that’s not the point of today’s discussion. Today is only looking at the probability that he will be sacked when he does indeed find himself pressured (because it’s nearly impossible for a quarterback to be sacked when not pressured).

 

In any case, what we are able to do is look at the rate at which Wilson has been sacked when pressured during his career and compare that to the rate at which league average quarterbacks are sacked when they are pressured. From that point an estimate can be formed on how many sacks were prevented or created by a scrambling quarterback, and the numbers for Wilson’s career are right here.

Approximation of sacks prevented or created by Russell Wilson’s scrambling

SEASON NFL WIDE MEAN SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE RUSSELL WILSON SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE WILSON DROPBACKS SACKS SAVED/CREATED
SEASON NFL WIDE MEAN SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE RUSSELL WILSON SACK RATE WHEN UNDER PRESSURE WILSON DROPBACKS SACKS SAVED/CREATED
2012 17.98 17.6 187 0.6
2013 17.94 20.0 220 -4.5
2014 17.57 16.7 251 2.1
2015 16.04 18.1 249 -5.1
2016 15.75 15.7 261 0.1
2017 17.28 15.9 271 3.8

Adding all those sacks prevented or created together, and we get a -2.9, which is close enough to zero on a six season sample that Wilson probably does neither. In short, while Wilson’s elusiveness certainly prevents sacks on certain plays, over the course of a season his elusiveness does not prevent sacks at a rate significantly better than the elusiveness of other quarterbacks.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

 over the course of a season his elusiveness does not prevent sacks at a rate significantly better than the elusiveness of other quarterbacks.

 

interesting.  i would have thought he would have been sacked less due to his mobility.  thanks for the info.

 

any similar info re: MR?

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1 hour ago, Yo_Lover said:

Bevell is trash.

Can you provide a single legitimate reason why you say that?  And don’t say SB 49 INT.  Bevell is the guy who pleaded for the Hawks to draft RW.  It was his pick.

Honestly, just let me know your thought process.  The defense assumed 65% of the CAP yet Bevell’s offense average finish was 7th between 2012-2017.  25 ppg over that time with near perfect run-pass balance.  One of those years the OL in total made 6 million.  

Trading Unger for Jimmy wasn’t his call.  They went through 16  RB’s the last 4 years...and Cable selected 18 OL during this time, only one of whom received a 2nd contract, Britt.

Bevell was Favre’s QB Coach during his GB heyday, was his OC for the great Vikings offense and did a great job in Seattle.

So please elaborate on why he is trash

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Q: If the organization called you to pick your brain, whether it was to coach or to coach in any capacity or to maybe find the next coach, would you be open to helping with that process?

FAVRE: Yeah, sure, I’d give them my opinion — and no one’s asked, not that they should. And I haven’t actually talked to any coaches. But I can think of several off the top of my head who, if the Packers, keeping in mind that Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback, would be great choices. Or at least in consideration. That would be Darrell Bevell, who Aaron knows well and took this year off. Young, energetic, great coach.

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23 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

interesting.  i would have thought he would have been sacked less due to his mobility.  thanks for the info.

 

any similar info re: MR?

I’ll dig up some stuff.  But Ryan is the only non-mobile QB in the top 5 for QBR under pressure

 

qk3rkj5.jpg

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31 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

interesting.  i would have thought he would have been sacked less due to his mobility.  thanks for the info.

 

any similar info re: MR?

PFF: Matt Ryan leads NFL in passing yards under pressure since 2006

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown for more yards under pressure than any other QB in the NFL over the last 12 seasons, according to Pro Football Focus.

Ryan’s 9,930 total yards in those situations rank ahead of Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson.

A lot goes into those numbers but the best QBs in the NFL like Ryan and Wilson all share the ability to anticipate the rush and make a throw before the pressure arrives.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Guess A-Rod doesn’t think Ryan is great in the 2-minute offense...lol 

 

 "I don't think you want to ask me to turn off 11 years (of recognizing defenses). We have a number of check with mes and line-of-scrimmage stuff. It's just the other stuff that really not many people in this league can do. 

"That's not like a humblebrag or anything; that's just a fact. There aren't many people that can do at the line of scrimmage what I've done over the years. I mean, obviously, Tommy (Brady) can do it, no doubt. Peyton (Manning) could do it. Drew (Brees) can do it. (Patrick) Mahomes will be able to do it. Ben (Roethlisberger) has called the two-minute for years. There are a few of us who've just done it; it's kind of second nature. And that's just the icing on the cake for what I can do in this offense." 

So, to summarize: Rodgers wants to take advantage of his intelligence and experience to attack defenses, and LaFleur wants him to buy into a proven system that, because of its ambitious pre-snap activity and overall philosophy, restricts the quarterback's ability (and, theoretically, his incentive) to do so. This is not a mean-spirited staredown that will necessitate a clear winner emerging as its sole means of resolution. The situation is, however, somewhat tricky, and the way LaFleur and Rodgers navigate the terrain will go a long way toward determining whether the Pack's once-prolific attack gets back on track.

Ryan more or less found that happy medium with Sark and I know he will with DK. I think he more or less had it with Kyle (well until the moment when it really counted). 

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FALCONS

Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan deserves WAY more credit than he gets

The Falcons may have some of the best receiving weapons in the NFL, but what really determines how much success many quarterbacks have is pressure. Through seven weeks, there have only been 5 quarterbacks sacked 20 or more times: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Eli Manning, Deshaun Watson and you guessed it, Matt Ryan. Let’s take a look at their passer ratings.

Allen- 61.8 passer rating

Prescott- 85.6 passer rating

Watson- 89.9 passer rating

Manning- 94.1 passer rating

In comparison, there have only been five quarterbacks that have been sacked less than 10 times: Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady, Ben Rothlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. Coincidently, there are only five players that have a passer rating higher than 110, however, one of these guys probably shouldn’t be here.

Brees- 121.6 passer rating

Rivers- 117.8 passer rating

Matt Ryan- 114.2 passer rating

Patrick Mahomes 114.0 passer rating

Jared Goff- 112.7 passer rating (sacked 12 times)

Ryan is doing more now with one of the least effective offensive lines he has ever had. What’s even more impressive, is his ability to protect the ball in light of all the pressure he has been under. Ryan has only thrown two interceptions, both which really were not his fault. The first came on a miscommunication with Julio Jones in week one and the second came as he was being hit after Austin Hooper misses a block.

Protecting the football has become a trend for Ryan. According to Pro Football Focus, Ryan threw the least amount of passes that should have been intercepted in 2017.

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6 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Matt Ryan deserves WAY more credit than he gets

good stuff.  and yes he deserves way more credit than he gets.  he does less than more.  could the other qbs with those high passer ratings do what MR has done with our o lines?

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7 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

good stuff.  and yes he deserves way more credit than he gets.  he does less than more.  could the other qbs with those high passer ratings do what MR has done?

People will always claim he rides the greatness of Julio.  It’s an unfortunate stigma that isn’t going anywhere.  Why can’t people say they complement one another perfectly? 

Just listen to the NFCCG vs GB where Al Michaels said Julio Jones would make him look like a Pro Bowl QB.  And Collinsworth simply laughed and agreed

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2 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Al Michaels

i really dont like him much.  he has more times than not shatted on the falcons.

and the stigma comes from lazy reporting or word association.  just becasue al m says it, it spreads.  they hear it once and it gets into the echo chamber.  

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58 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Can you provide a single legitimate reason why you say that?  And don’t say SB 49 INT.  Bevell is the guy who pleaded for the Hawks to draft RW.  It was his pick.

Honestly, just let me know your thought process.  The defense assumed 65% of the CAP yet Bevell’s offense average finish was 7th between 2012-2017.  25 ppg over that time with near perfect run-pass balance.  One of those years the OL in total made 6 million.  

Trading Unger for Jimmy wasn’t his call.  They went through 16  RB’s the last 4 years...and Cable selected 18 OL during this time, only one of whom received a 2nd contract, Britt.

Bevell was Favre’s QB Coach during his GB heyday, was his OC for the great Vikings offense and did a great job in Seattle.

So please elaborate on why he is trash

His offense went to **** without Marshawn, and he didn't even have a job come 2018. 

He's trash.

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13 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

His offense went to **** without Marshawn, and he didn't even have a job come 2018. 

He's trash.

Lynch only had 400 yards in 2015.  Then he retired.  These were Wilson’s best years...and the decline had less to do with Lynch and more to do with investing just 6 million on their entire OL

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11 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Lynch only had 400 yards in 2015.  Then he retired.  These were Wilson’s best years...and the decline had less to do with Lynch and more to do with investing just 6 million on their entire OL

Ryan just had one of his best years. Does that mean Sark is a good OC?

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11 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Lynch only had 400 yards in 2015.  Then he retired.  These were Wilson’s best years...and the decline had less to do with Lynch and more to do with investing just 6 million on their entire OL

Ryan just had one of his best years. Does that mean Sark is a good OC?

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