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Beef

Roster Analysis

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Just looking at the Hawks depth chart and payroll, it's not that difficult to see what our most pressing needs are.

1-PG: Trae Young | Jaylen Adams (contract expires after 19/20 season)

2-SG: Kevin Huerter | Kent Bazemore (contract expires after 19/20 season) | DeAndre Bembry (contract expires after 19/20 season)

3-SF: [empty] | [empty]  (Bembry can play the 3, but he's not at all a traditional wing style player, so this isn't conducive to what Schlenk is trying to build and put on our floor)

4-PF: John Collins | Omari Spellman

5-C: Alex Len (contract expires after 19/20 season) | Miles Plumlee (contract expires after 19/20 season)

 

That's it.  This is our depth chart right at this moment.  Which is crazy.  To put this in perspective, after this season we only have Young, Huerter, Collins, and Spellman under contract for a whopping payroll of $15.5M, leaving us with $93M in cap space (tops in the league).  Obviously this will change after this draft.  We will add somewhere between $11-14M just from draft selections.  So we will still end up around $80M in cap space, which will still put us probably between 1-3 most in the league.

I REALLY like the thought of having Young, Huerter, Collins, Spellman, plus 3 first rounders from this draft, potentially 3 first rounders from next draft, and still having room for 2 elite player max contracts.  That's a recipe for a contender.

 

 

Who did we have last year that is no longer on the roster?

3-SF: Taurean Prince, Vince Carter

4-PF: Justin Anderson, Alex Poythress

5-C: Dewayne Dedmon, Isaac Humphries

 

I think there's a chance we re-sign Vince Carter, Justin Anderson, and Dewayne Dedmon again.  But they are obviously waiting until after the draft to see how that unfolds.

 

That still leaves us with some gaping holes either way.

Needs by priority:

3-SF - We may even need 2 of these in this draft.  I suspect we will extend Bembry before or soon after this season because he's improved dramatically and is on the verge of becoming a very good defender who can also create shots, plus he can essentially backup 3 positions if needed (PG/SG/SF).  But he's not a starter.  So this is obviously priority number one in the draft.  It's probably either Culver, Hunter, or Reddish.  I think any of these players, along with Huerter, can combo the 2 and 3, and seemlessly switch defending out on the wings.  I obviously prefer Hunter or Culver here.  We may even consider Little, Doumbouya, Clark, or PJ Washington if we decide to double-up, too.

5-C - After this next season, we will not have a single Center under contract.  This is assuredly at least one of our first round picks.  Maybe at #10, but at the very least at #17.  And probably either Hayes, Fernando, or Bitadze.  Maybe even a slim chance on Bol.  My preference is Bruno Fernando at #10 (Hayes would be fine here too), or Bitadze at #17.  I don't think Fernando makes it to #17.  But there's no way we don't pick a Center, even if our plan is to sign a big name FA center after this season.  I think there's a good chance we even pick another Center with one of our second round picks, IF we hold on to them.

2/3-SG/SF - After this season, we won't have any depth at SG or SF.  We may have two starters at SG and SF who can combo both positions, plus maybe we re-sign Bembry, but the depth behind both of these spots will be lacking.  This is why I think we may keep all 3 of our first round picks and double-up on SF with guys who can combo at SG too.

1-PG - After this season, we won't have any depth behind Young.  Unless we re-sign Jaylen Adams or do something unusual like re-signing Bembry and turning him into a combo PG/SG.  Bembry is actually quite capable of being a decent facilitator, especially now that he's forcing defenders to collapse on him when he slashes to the basket, which he's getting pretty good at.  He's causing our wings to be open more often as a result.  If he could just learn to hit them when this happens, he can easily be Trae's backup.  That said, I think we'll probably pick another PG with one of our second round picks too.

 

Now we're still a couple weeks out, and Schlenk has previously said that he doesn't really think we'll be picking 5 players, so expect some packaged deals and some movement.  Well now we have 6 picks.  So it's probably a certainty at this point that he's trying to work a package deal somewhere.  I suspect he's trying to trade 2, or even all 3, of the seconds to move back into the late first round.  There's also a chance he's trying to package 2 of 8, 10, or 17 to move up from 8.  These next couple weeks are going to agonizing.

That said, we're in an incredible position.  Three first round picks this year, plus potentially three first rounders next year, plus $80M under the cap?  AND, all this while having an incredible young core of Young, Huerter, Collins, and Spellman??  Man, what a great time to be a Hawks fan.  This is going to be fun.

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Great breakdown.  Guess it’s very possible we make three 1st round picks.  Could package 10 & 17 to move up for Culver.  Take Reddish/Little at 10 and package all three 2nd round picks to get to the back end of 1st round for a rim protector

Would love to draft MT if we keep one of those 2nd round picks

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41 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Great breakdown.  Guess it’s very possible we make three 1st round picks.  Could package 10 & 17 to move up for Culver.  Take Reddish/Little at 10 and package all three 2nd round picks to get to the back end of 1st round for a rim protector

Would love to draft MT if we keep one of those 2nd round picks

Culver and Reddish/Little would be a dream draft for me. Gives us a much needed some guys in positions of need that have very high upside. 

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Justin Anderson is weird. He has a team option/Qualifying offer(can't remember which) but it's really high IIRC. Somewhere around 4 million. 

Not saying he won't be back, but I can't see them guaranteeing that 4 million to an end of the rotation guy who for 85% of the season they were dead set on not playing. 

Could see them not tendering the QO to him and signing him as a normal free agent though. Maybe. I'm not sure they like him. 

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Move up and draft Culver.  Draft Fernando. Sign Montrezl Harrell and Fred VanFleet as UFA in 2020.  Fill in the roster for depth and, bam, the best in the East...

pg Young, VanFleet

sg  Culver, Huerter, 

sf Huerter, Culver, Bembry

pf Collins, Fernando

c Harrell, Fernando

bench

Spellman

Anderson

Adams

 

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2 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Culver & Fernando - I envision both as Hawks come Draft night.

Both are hand in glove fits for Schlenk/Lloyd/Hawks.

Culver definitely fits the dribble,pass, shoot model that Schlenk has eluded to!

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Go after AD in a sign and trade or sign Vooch this year. Even if we have to pay a lux tax. That fixes the center position. Both are better than any center coming out in the next three free agency and draft classes. Double down in the draft on wing men that can shoot, penetrate and play defense. Draft or sign a back up point and we should be able to compete this year and still have assets and cap space to build in the future.

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7 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Go after AD in a sign and trade or sign Vooch this year. Even if we have to pay a lux tax. That fixes the center position. Both are better than any center coming out in the next three free agency and draft classes. Double down in the draft on wing men that can shoot, penetrate and play defense. Draft or sign a back up point and we should be able to compete this year and still have assets and cap space to build in the future.

No to Vuc.

AD is not a FA this season, so no SnT option is available, we'd have to trade assets for him on his 1 year contract and there is no telling if he would resign, he has not listed Atlanta as a prefered destination he is willing to sign an extention.

Hawks are so far under the salary cap  it'll be hard for them to get to a point where they'll need to pay the Luxury tax this season even if they use all their capspace.

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1 hour ago, jayu70 said:

No to Vuc.

AD is not a FA this season, so no SnT option is available, we'd have to trade assets for him on his 1 year contract and there is no telling if he would resign, he has not listed Atlanta as a prefered destination he is willing to sign an extention.

Hawks are so far under the salary cap  it'll be hard for them to get to a point where they'll need to pay the Luxury tax this season even if they use all their capspace.

AD is signed to two more years in NO. He is definitely available for a sign and trade. I'd start with him. If we can't sign him sign Vooch. I keep asking you what your solution to our center position is. Dedmon and Len? Rookie draft picks? What is it bro? Give me AD or Vooch. Both are better than any center in the next three draft and free agency classes. Trust me.

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49 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

AD is signed to two more years in NO. He is definitely available for a sign and trade. I'd start with him. If we can't sign him sign Vooch. I keep asking you what your solution to our center position is. Dedmon and Len? Rookie draft picks? What is it bro? Give me AD or Vooch. Both are better than any center in the next three draft and free agency classes. Trust me.

He is available via TRADE only, (no sign n trade)  since as you indicated he is already signed for two more years, with one of those years he has a player option which he will most likely declined to become a FA to get a larger long term deal.  That's why he's considered a 1 year rental and will more likely not resign with the Hawks.

As I indicated, I'd rather sign a center, any center that will not cost $25 -$30+ milliion 

 

After the TP trade, Hawks currently have $26 million in capspace.

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1 hour ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

AD is signed to two more years in NO. He is definitely available for a sign and trade. I'd start with him. If we can't sign him sign Vooch. I keep asking you what your solution to our center position is. Dedmon and Len? Rookie draft picks? What is it bro? Give me AD or Vooch. Both are better than any center in the next three draft and free agency classes. Trust me.

We aren’t signing Vooch and we aren’t trading for AD.

Trust me

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

We aren’t signing Vooch and we aren’t trading for AD.

Trust me

 

Exactly

 

I don't know why FFS1970(how do you tag usernames?) keeps bringing up a trade for AD.

 

It make no sense because the Hawks will have to pay an incredibly high price to compete with the Lakers and AD will most likely won't re-up on a new contract with them.

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2 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Go after AD in a sign and trade or sign Vooch this year. Even if we have to pay a lux tax. That fixes the center position. Both are better than any center coming out in the next three free agency and draft classes. Double down in the draft on wing men that can shoot, penetrate and play defense. Draft or sign a back up point and we should be able to compete this year and still have assets and cap space to build in the future.

@WOR explained pretty well why guys like Dedmon and Len are perfectly fine centers in our system and why you don’t need to break the bank on a center.

We will likely draft one and develop him for precisely this reason. 

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26 minutes ago, DawnOfThemBirds said:

 

Exactly

 

I don't know why FFS1970(how do you tag usernames?) keeps bringing up a trade for AD.

 

It make no sense because the Hawks will have to pay an incredibly high price to compete with the Lakers and AD will most likely won't re-up on a new contract with them.

type @ symbol then space, then start typing in their name 

@ [name] like this. 

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14 hours ago, Beef said:

@WOR explained pretty well why guys like Dedmon and Len are perfectly fine centers in our system and why you don’t need to break the bank on a center.

We will likely draft one and develop him for precisely this reason. 

Another piece of this that I forgot to mention before is scheme fit as well. 

Vuc specifically would **** up John collins role. 

You can't have 2 guys that primarily operate on pick and rolls, lobs, and in the paint kind of stuff. Well "can't" is strong, but a guy like Vuc would take a lot of opportunities from Collins. 

That's why Dedmon works with him so well. Dedmon can operate on the perimeter and be the pick and pop big while John does his work down low. 

TLDR: You don't want to have a bunch of guys that need/like to work near the basket. Kills spacing. 

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15 hours ago, WOR said:

Another piece of this that I forgot to mention before is scheme fit as well. 

Vuc specifically would **** up John collins role. 

You can't have 2 guys that primarily operate on pick and rolls, lobs, and in the paint kind of stuff. Well "can't" is strong, but a guy like Vuc would take a lot of opportunities from Collins. 

That's why Dedmon works with him so well. Dedmon can operate on the perimeter and be the pick and pop big while John does his work down low. 

TLDR: You don't want to have a bunch of guys that need/like to work near the basket. Kills spacing. 

He wouldn't though because our bigs alternate. That's why our pick and roll has been deadly this year with Trae running the show, because sometimes Collins rolls and Len/Dedmon pop and vice versa. Collins rolls probably more often than not, but he can shoot threes, which stresses the defense. Vucevic wouldn't mess up the spacing because he can do both, very well (better than most guys at his position), as well as create offense.

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So here's my list of guys who check the Schlenk boxes, fit in our system, and are who I think Travis Schlenk is looking most at (and in order of how I like them).

Pre-10:

SG/SF Jarrett Culver

SF De'Andre Hunter

SF Sekou Doumbouya

 

Post-10:

C Bruno Fernando

SG Tyler Herro

C Jaxson Hayes

C Goga Bitadze

SF/PF PJ Washington

 

Post-20:

SF Cam Johnson

SG/SF Dylan Windler

SF/PF Chuma Okeke

C Nic Claxton

C Mfiondu Kabengele

 

I don't think we pick anyone in the first round outside 3 of these guys. (maybe even 4 if we use 2nd rounders to move back into back end of the 1st).

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I guess my mock draft at this moment would look something like this:

- Trade #8 + #44 to Cavs... they give us #5 + Tristan Thompson.  Cavs free up $18.5M and we have solved our Center issue for at least this season (no longer have to sign Dedmon, and Thompson contract is expiring).  There's a chance we may have to turn their top-10 protected pick in 2020 into a top-14, or maybe even just one or two second rounders.

- Trade #35 + #41 to the Spurs for pick #29.

#5: SG/SF Jarrett Culver

#10: C Bruno Fernando

#17: SF Cam Johnson

#29: SG/SF Dylan Windler

 

My alternative draft to this would be something like:

#5: SF D'Andre Hunter

#10: SG Tyler Herro

#17: C Nic Claxton

#29: SF/PF Chuma Okeke

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17 hours ago, No.11 said:

He wouldn't though because our bigs alternate. That's why our pick and roll has been deadly this year with Trae running the show, because sometimes Collins rolls and Len/Dedmon pop and vice versa. Collins rolls probably more often than not, but he can shoot threes, which stresses the defense. Vucevic wouldn't mess up the spacing because he can do both, very well (better than most guys at his position), as well as create offense.

I dont disagree.

The problem really is that youve got two players whose value is far and away around the basket(Collins and Vuc). Sure, they can work, but its kind of like Trae and RJ Barrett. To make them work, you have to sacrifice, at least part of the time, what they both do best. 

Thats where I think its a little bit different from Collins and Dedmon. Dedmons best attribute is on the perimeter. Thats where he *should* be. Thats why he and Collins work so great together. On offense, Collins best position is at Center, where Dedmons is more of a giant *** forward. At least at the present, Collins and Vuc's best skill isnt on the perimeter. Its inside, which they cant both be doing at the same time. 

So, again, to pair them together, half of the time youre taking away their best skill. And paying 30 million to do so, which is probably the biggest part lol

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11 minutes ago, WOR said:

I dont disagree.

The problem really is that youve got two players whose value is far and away around the basket(Collins and Vuc). Sure, they can work, but its kind of like Trae and RJ Barrett. To make them work, you have to sacrifice, at least part of the time, what they both do best. 

Thats where I think its a little bit different from Collins and Dedmon. Dedmons best attribute is on the perimeter. Thats where he *should* be. Thats why he and Collins work so great together. On offense, Collins best position is at Center, where Dedmons is more of a giant *** forward. At least at the present, Collins and Vuc's best skill isnt on the perimeter. Its inside, which they cant both be doing at the same time. 

So, again, to pair them together, half of the time youre taking away their best skill. And paying 30 million to do so, which is probably the biggest part lol

Errrr, you sure you're thinking about the right guy?

Vooch is essentially the same guy as Dedmon, except he is a better perimeter shooter than Dedmon.

He can rebound, pass, dribble, shoot, and shoot 3's.  He is not much of a "pick and roll" guy.

He's about as perfect for our system as it gets.  I just don't see us getting him because again, we're not sighing any big FA's this season and Vooch is going to get at or near a max deal from somebody soon.  We're not handing out that kind of deal right now.

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15 minutes ago, Beef said:

Errrr, you sure you're thinking about the right guy?

Vooch is essentially the same guy as Dedmon, except he is a better perimeter shooter than Dedmon.

He can rebound, pass, dribble, shoot, and shoot 3's.  He is not much of a "pick and roll" guy.

He's about as perfect for our system as it gets.  I just don't see us getting him because again, we're not sighing any big FA's this season and Vooch is going to get at or near a max deal from somebody soon.  We're not handing out that kind of deal right now.

https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2019/04/13/breaking-down-vucevic-ball-screens-and-how-to-defend-them/

 

Again, Im not saying he cant do those things, Im saying his offensive profile is rather similar to what Collins' does in this offense. Theyre redundant. When youve got two redundancies, at a certain point youre limiting both of them, at least IMO. Just chilling one of those guys around the perimeter at all times, really limits what they do best. Just watch Gordon in these clips. Is that what you want Vuc or Collins doing 50% of the time? Theyre both very good players who can dominate in their roles. 

But like you said, he costs too much anyway. 

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24 minutes ago, WOR said:

https://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2019/04/13/breaking-down-vucevic-ball-screens-and-how-to-defend-them/

 

Again, Im not saying he cant do those things, Im saying his offensive profile is rather similar to what Collins' does in this offense. Theyre redundant. When youve got two redundancies, at a certain point youre limiting both of them, at least IMO. Just chilling one of those guys around the perimeter at all times, really limits what they do best. Theyre both very good players who can dominate in their roles. 

But like you said, he costs too much anyway. 

Maybe this is just me, but I'm still seeing Collins and Vooch doing mostly different things.

Vooch is setting screens/picks (because he's 7'0 260 and a brick wall), and then most of the time stepping out and staying on the perimeter, and much less often streaking inside and receiving a pass/alley oop.  Even in your link above he's rarely streaking inside the paint off the pick.

Collins, on the other hand, isn't even always the screener, but Dedmon or Len will screen off Trae's defender while Collins streaks inside to receive the pass.  And even when Collins is the screener, he still mostly streaks inside off the pick rather than stepping outside.

So again, the reason I really like Vooch is because he's doesn't have to go inside off the pick.  He can step out and be a second pick and roll option for Trae because he's a better/very good perimeter shooter.

Having two options on the pick and roll is better than ONLY having Collins, who's almost always gonna be heading inside off the pick.  At some point, teams are going to collapse another defender on him every time because he's the only option, and he's going to start picking up offensive charging fouls... UNLESS Trae has a second OPEN option to go to.  And a Center who can step outside and nail 17-25 footers is a golden ticket.

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