Jpowors

Not the new Donald Trump Presidency thread

56,453 posts in this topic

19 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

Not really. It's common propaganda among centrists to blame those three blowouts on those candidates being too left-wing even though the platforms of two of them are aligned with the centrist consensus and there were much more significant reasons for McGovern's loss than his platform, namely the alienation between him and the unions that the Dems relied extremely heavily on for voter mobilization. It's a bad, lazy argument to fearmonger the base.

As for McGovern/Goldwater thing specifically, it's simply difficult to take data points at face value seriously when they say that someone was more of an extremist than someone who wanted to repeal the CRA, destroy the New Deal, wanted to nuke Vietnam, and so on. It's more difficult to take it seriously when I'm compared to climate change deniers for wanting an explanation or examples as to why that'd be the case.

I’ve never said that either candidate lost because of their ideology.  I’ve only said that ideological extremity makes it more difficult to win, and the evidence bears that out although newer evidence suggests the effect is smaller than previous studies showed.

As for the bolded part, that’s not even remotely true.  McGovern’s positions were not at all with his own party’s base supporters, let alone the general public.  This is from a recent study...

10-1177-0002716216660571-fig1.gif

The authors also create a measure of these positions relative to the party base and to the general public.  They test around five different ways of measuring candidate ideology and relative ideology, and all of them produce the same results.  (Note that in this measure McGovern is slightly more extreme than Goldwater.)  For the relative measure, they also found that Goldwater and McGovern were the two most extreme candidates, but they also found that Reagan in 80 was far more extreme than the Republican base.  

So yet again, even the most recent studies confirm what the data I presented before showed — McGovern was ideologically extreme, both in absolute terms and relative to their party’s bases.  

And I’ve already spent too much time rehashing this whole thing.  As I said, there are far more important things going on than this.

Psychic Gibbon likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mdrake34 said:

 

Pretty sure what caused it to fall apart was because of the speculation went to ridiculous levels and that it would be the magic bullet that would take him down... then it didn't turn out to be the case.

Now I'm seeing the ridiculous ******** coming from the GOP to defend this stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the off chance that @Psychic Gibbon is incorrect and Trump DOES get impeached by the House, and Trump subsequently resigns or is removed, Dem's need to look at the field with the POSSIBILITY that they will not be running against Trump. Framing, matchups, etc. It's something to be PREPARED for, not something that's an inevitability.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

I’ve never said that either candidate lost because of their ideology.  I’ve only said that ideological extremity makes it more difficult to win, and the evidence bears that out although newer evidence suggests the effect is smaller than previous studies showed.

As for the bolded part, that’s not even remotely true.  McGovern’s positions were not at all with his own party’s base supporters, let alone the general public.  This is from a recent study...

10-1177-0002716216660571-fig1.gif

The authors also create a measure of these positions relative to the party base and to the general public.  They test around five different ways of measuring candidate ideology and relative ideology, and all of them produce the same results.  (Note that in this measure McGovern is slightly more extreme than Goldwater.)  For the relative measure, they also found that Goldwater and McGovern were the two most extreme candidates, but they also found that Reagan in 80 was far more extreme than the Republican base.  

So yet again, even the most recent studies confirm what the data I presented before showed — McGovern was ideologically extreme, both in absolute terms and relative to their party’s bases.  

And I’ve already spent too much time rehashing this whole thing.  As I said, there are far more important things going on than this.

giphy.gif

The bold was referring to Mondale and Dukakis, not McGovern. I haven't denied that McGovern was left-wing. My contention with the original argument regarding him was that he didn't lose because he was left-wing but because his actions prior to winning the nomination alienated unions, who made up the voting base and mobilization network of the Dem Party at the time, and pissed them off enough to turn on him. It'd be like if a contemporary Dem nominee, left, center, whatever, spent a good chunk of their career undercutting non-white communities and then expected them to turn out to vote for them. That is a recipe for disaster, one which befell McGovern.

As for the graph: If it's judging the perceived extremism of the candidates based on their parties and electorates, and not overall, then that makes way more sense than basically a direct comparison between McGovern and Goldwater, which is how it originally came across. Also lines up with my argument since his record and positions in some very key areas were, indeed, way off base with the Dem electorate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, Leon Troutsky said:

There’s a lot more important stuff happening right now, especially regarding the Ukraine scandal.  

 

49 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

As I said, with so many more important things going on right now, it’s useless to rehash this whole thing just because you want to try to prop up a losing candidate.  

 

19 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

 As I said, there are far more important things going on than this.

 

Trout if you had your own board again it would be easier for you to tell people how they should post. You could even ban folks for posting Tweets from 'nobodies' that upset you. Just something to think about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

On the off chance that @Psychic Gibbon is incorrect and Trump DOES get impeached by the House, and Trump subsequently resigns or is removed, Dem's need to look at the field with the POSSIBILITY that they will not be running against Trump. Framing, matchups, etc. It's something to be PREPARED for, not something that's an inevitability.

When have I said that he won't get impeached by the House?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

On the off chance that @Psychic Gibbon is incorrect and Trump DOES get impeached by the House, and Trump subsequently resigns or is removed, Dem's need to look at the field with the POSSIBILITY that they will not be running against Trump. Framing, matchups, etc. It's something to be PREPARED for, not something that's an inevitability.

If Trump gets removed from office then it’ll almost certainly be Pence running.  And he’s toast because he’s been defending Trump’s behavior for years, so Dems can run against Pence as Trump.  

I doubt there’s a single Republican out there that could win 2020 if Trump gets tossed out of office.

Sn4tteRBoxXeR likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

giphy.gif

The bold was referring to Mondale and Dukakis, not McGovern. I haven't denied that McGovern was left-wing. My contention with the original argument regarding him was that he didn't lose because he was left-wing but because his actions prior to winning the nomination alienated unions, who made up the voting base and mobilization network of the Dem Party at the time, and pissed them off enough to turn on him. It'd be like if a contemporary Dem nominee, left, center, whatever, spent a good chunk of their career undercutting non-white communities and then expected them to turn out to vote for them. That is a recipe for disaster, one which befell McGovern.

As for the graph: If it's judging the perceived extremism of the candidates based on their parties and electorates, and not overall, then that makes way more sense than basically a direct comparison between McGovern and Goldwater, which is how it originally came across. Also lines up with my argument since his record and positions in some very key areas were, indeed, way off base with the Dem electorate.

Yeah, I was surprised that Mondale and Dukakis scores weren’t more extreme, but that’s what the newest measures show so I accept that.

I have to go to work so I’ll try to respond to the rest later IF there’s not more important news coming out.  I would also note that the study I cited by Cohen and colleagues also showed a small and not very significant effect of ideology on vote share.  The main point is that other things — especially the economy — influence elections, not ideology.  Which fits with what most political science studies have shown over the years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Billy Ocean said:

 

 

 

 

Trout if you had your own board again it would be easier for you to tell people how they should post. You could even ban people for posting Tweets from 'nobodies' that upset you. Just something to think about.

Hey, I for one am waiting breathlessly for more updates on whether or not that phone call amounted to quid pro quo.

Billy Ocean likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

If Trump gets removed from office then it’ll almost certainly be Pence running.  And he’s toast because he’s been defending Trump’s behavior for years, so Dems can run against Pence as Trump.  

I doubt there’s a single Republican out there that could win 2020 if Trump gets tossed out of office.

If Biden gets the nomination, Warren can take a DNA test to prove that she's a Republican...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Leon Troutsky said:

Yeah, I was surprised that Mondale and Dukakis scores weren’t more extreme, but that’s what the newest measures show so I accept that.

I have to go to work so I’ll try to respond to the rest later IF there’s not more important news coming out.  I would also note that the study I cited by Cohen and colleagues also showed a small and not very significant effect of ideology on vote share.  The main point is that other things — especially the economy — influence elections, not ideology.  Which fits with what most political science studies have shown over the years.

Also, the measure isn’t any one thing — it’s not just voter perceptions nor is it just policy positions.  They test up to five different measures.  So it doesn’t matter how it’s measured, McGovern is extreme for all of them.  But that extremism isn’t why he lost in such a landslide, either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Psychic Gibbon said:

When have I said that he won't get impeached by the House?

Uh, that's been your well-documented, stated position on multiple occasions barring any attempt at post edits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Billy Ocean said:

 

 

 

 

Trout if you had your own board again it would be easier for you to tell people how they should post. You could even ban folks for posting Tweets from 'nobodies' that upset you. Just something to think about.

If I had my own board, I wouldn’t ban people for posting stuff I disagree with.  If that’s how you think I would run a board then you don’t really know me very well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Gritzblitz 2.0 said:

Imagine having to follow Matt Gaetz to anything, at any time. 

Anti-Semitic Holocaust Denier Chuck C Johnson followed him to the SOTU at Gaetz’s invitation even after security told Gaetz who Johnson really was. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

If Trump gets removed from office then it’ll almost certainly be Pence running.  And he’s toast because he’s been defending Trump’s behavior for years, so Dems can run against Pence as Trump.  

I doubt there’s a single Republican out there that could win 2020 if Trump gets tossed out of office.

That's one possibility, let me guess, you have tons of data showing that removed or resigned Presidents' parties do not win reelection in the White House... Otherwise, I don't see how you can be so sure. If the economy stays strong, Pence could be "a clean slate." I strongly suspect Romney is gunning for the nomination... if it opens up... Romney could win if the GOP disinformation campaigns are strong enough. It's way too early to know who will win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Yeah, I was surprised that Mondale and Dukakis scores weren’t more extreme, but that’s what the newest measures show so I accept that.

I have to go to work so I’ll try to respond to the rest later IF there’s not more important news coming out.  I would also note that the study I cited by Cohen and colleagues also showed a small and not very significant effect of ideology on vote share.  The main point is that other things — especially the economy — influence elections, not ideology.  Which fits with what most political science studies have shown over the years.

It's because those two weren't left-wing, let alone extremists, and that line of thinking needs to die. They were bad candidates with negative charisma. Simple as that.

Material conditions definitely plays the most significant role in elections. That's why I think having a candidate like Sanders or Warren would give the Dems their best shot: They do the best job of recognizing and addressing those needs. The rest of the field, imo, falls woefully short there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now