Jpowors

Not the new Donald Trump Presidency thread

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Everyone’s talking about Biden should drop out, yet he’s still running in the top 2 the entire time. 

I actually think Sanders should drop out and throw his support to Warren.  Sander’s is now down in the single digits, it’s been obvious for awhile that he’s not going to win the nomination, and now If his supporters moved to Warren that would likely boost her into a comfortable #1 spot in the polls.  

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Everyone’s talking about Biden should drop out, yet he’s still running in the top 2 the entire time. 

I actually think Sanders should drop out and throw his support to Warren.  Sander’s is now down in the single digits, it’s been obvious for awhile that he’s not going to win the nomination, and now If his supporters moved to Warren that would likely boost her into a comfortable #1 spot in the polls.  

It would also boost Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard.

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4 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Everyone’s talking about Biden should drop out, yet he’s still running in the top 2 the entire time. 

I actually think Sanders should drop out and throw his support to Warren.  Sander’s is now down in the single digits, it’s been obvious for awhile that he’s not going to win the nomination, and now If his supporters moved to Warren that would likely boost her into a comfortable #1 spot in the polls.  

lol sanders isn't going anywhere.

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2 minutes ago, achilles return said:

lol sanders isn't going anywhere.

Probably true.  But he’s staying in a lost cause and he’s taking votes away from the one candidate who shares his views the most and actually has a chance of winning.

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Just now, Leon Troutsky said:

Probably true.  But he’s staying in a lost cause and he’s taking votes away from the one candidate who shares his views the most and actually has a chance of winning.

there hasn't been a single vote in a single primary yet. slow your roll, my dude.

sander will stay in because he is a better candidate than warren. acting like any outcome is guaranteed four months before iowa is extremely silly and akin to trolling. 

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Just now, achilles return said:

there hasn't been a single vote in a single primary yet. slow your roll, my dude.

sander will stay in because he is a better candidate than warren. acting like any outcome is guaranteed four months before iowa is extremely silly and akin to trolling. 

I’ve never seen a path to victory for him.  He’s got even less support this year than in 2016.  What is it that you think he’s going to do to win over the 20-25% of voters he needs to be competitive in the early states?

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1 minute ago, achilles return said:

there hasn't been a single vote in a single primary yet. slow your roll, my dude.

sander will stay in because he is a better candidate than warren. acting like any outcome is guaranteed four months before iowa is extremely silly and akin to trolling. 

He's a more genuine human being, no doubt, but how is he a better candidate?

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I really think Sanders should not fight to the "bitter end" like he did in 2016. It really ****** up the Democrats. Not that it was wrong at the time. But we have now seen the effects. It causes lower Dem turnout and increases third party support. Bernie needs to learn the lesson of 2016 too, just like Hillary did. He needs to bow out at some point early next year.

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The bad thing about echo chambers right now is that if a Trump person "miraculously" was saved by the Grace of God and decided to "tune into" the anti-Trump side of things (everyone but pro-Trump groups), that person would be so absolutely "behind the curve" that they would not be capable of catching up. It's like they are way too deep in the koolaid to switch drinks.

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

I’ve never seen a path to victory for him.  He’s got even less support this year than in 2016.  What is it that you think he’s going to do to win over the 20-25% of voters he needs to be competitive in the early states?

it's very easy to imagine early state polling not capturing the state of the race accurately. iowa polling was off by 6% in 2008 and 4% in 2016 for democrats. the republican races were off by 8% in 2012 and 5% in 2016. sanders has the broadest funding support and the most devoted grassroots, so i'm not worried. 

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6 minutes ago, Vogelgryff said:

He's a more genuine human being, no doubt, but how is he a better candidate?

because he supports better policies. 

and he's not a "capitalist to the bone".

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3 minutes ago, achilles return said:

it's very easy to imagine early state polling not capturing the state of the race accurately. iowa polling was off by 6% in 2008 and 4% in 2016 for democrats. the republican races were off by 8% in 2012 and 5% in 2016. sanders has the broadest funding support and the most devoted grassroots, so i'm not worried. 

Even being off by that much all in Sanders’ favor, he still comes in third.

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here's a cool quote i found from some old 2011 article about iowa:

Quote

In 2008, 26 consecutive Iowa caucus polls from the end of July through just before Thanksgiving put Mitt Romney in the lead by an average of 10 points. Two of the next four polls gave Romney a 1-point lead, and the others put Mike Huckabee 3 to 5 points ahead. On caucus night, Huckabee won by 9 points.

Even that brief recitation masks considerable volatility. A Strategic Vision poll, taken Sept. 21-23, 2007, gave Romney a 13-point lead, while an American Research Group survey five days later put his margin at just a single point. Only about two weeks after that, the University of Iowa claimed a 23-point lead for the eventual loser. Dizzy yet?

Would the average of the very last polls have yielded the right winner? Yes. Would any single poll have provided real confidence? No. Would polls in September, October or November have offered useful guidance? None.

https://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/mark-mellman/189775-ignore-the-iowa-caucus-polls

 

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1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Even being off by that much all in Sanders’ favor, he still comes in third.

not if the movement comes at the cost of support for biden and warren. the point is, you don't know. we won't know until it comes time to vote, and far stranger things have happened. 

the idea that sanders should stop running on the basis of iowa polling in october is simply ridiculous. it's indicative of your personal dislike of sanders and his supporters, nothing more. 

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6 minutes ago, achilles return said:

not if the movement comes at the cost of support for biden and warren. the point is, you don't know. we won't know until it comes time to vote, and far stranger things have happened. 

the idea that sanders should stop running on the basis of iowa polling in october is simply ridiculous. it's indicative of your personal dislike of sanders and his supporters, nothing more. 

It's waaaaaaaay too early to drop out. Unless he has a second or third heart attack.

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