Jpizzle

Not the new Donald Trump Presidency thread

66,574 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

Apparently Trump had a meltdown in a meeting with Democrats, including calling Pelosi a “third rate politician” and went on some kind of diatribe about Syria.  He also suggested that some ISIS people were communists (:lol:) and said that Pelosi and other Dems might like that about them.  

The most famous communists of them all: Religious fundamentalists.

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It just seems like the polls will inevitably oversample people that consume a lot of political news, especially retired people, because those are the people that want to and actually would participate in political polls.

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Just now, Leon Troutsky said:

Please tell me they don’t have toilet paper with Trump’s face on it.

They don't get it from political parties. They're in the bluest voting bloc in the state.

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4 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I get them all the time.

But no pollster has ever called me.

#pollsarefake

:ninja:

They call me frequently. If they ask for me by name, I hang up. What sort of anonymous poll calls you by name? Others ask if I have a few minutes to answer just a handful of short questions and keep me on the line for 20 minutes. I swear, those only call if I'm (a)fixing dinner or (b)about to learn who the killer is without DVRing the program. I don't normally mind pollsters but they never call at a good time. The worst are those who want to know if you "strongly disagree", "disagree", "have no opinion", "agree" or "strongly agree". SMH. 90% of my answers are typically going to be exclusively "agree" or exclusively "disagree" but there's occasionally a "strongly disagree" thrown in to make sure I'm paying attention.

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4 minutes ago, Serge said:

It just seems like the polls will inevitably oversample people that consume a lot of political news, especially retired people, because those are the people that want to and actually would participate in political polls.

They do oversample those people.  That’s why they adjust the numbers based on known population demographics, weighting each response according to their actual percentage of the population.  

So for example, suppose that their sample only include 4% African Americans.  We know that African Americans are about 11% of the total population, so they give greater weight to responses by African Americans and less weight to white respondents (who were oversampled).  

It’s not perfect, but it’s been pretty good so far.

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2 minutes ago, JayOzOne said:

They call me frequently. If they ask for me by name, I hang up. What sort of anonymous poll calls you by name? Others ask if I have a few minutes to answer just a handful of short questions and keep me on the line for 20 minutes. I swear, those only call if I'm (a)fixing dinner or (b)about to learn who the killer is without DVRing the program. I don't normally mind pollsters but they never call at a good time. The worst are those who want to know if you "strongly disagree", "disagree", "have no opinion", "agree" or "strongly agree". SMH. 90% of my answers are typically going to be exclusively "agree" or exclusively "disagree" but there's occasionally a "strongly disagree" thrown in to make sure I'm paying attention.

If it’s a reputable pollster then they only have that information for the phone call and your personal information isn’t included in the dataset whatsoever.  That’s why you should ask who they are, specifically, if they use your name.  If you don’t recognize the poll, then don’t participate.

Also, about the “strongly” thing, that’s actually very helpful from a polling perspective.  We can’t assume that everybody has the same level of agreement, so offering that option is a way to gauge intensity of opinion and not just direction.  The “have no opinion” option is a bit controversial among pollsters.  It encourages a lot of people who might have an opinion but don’t want to offer it a way to dodge.  But it also allows people who truly don’t have an opinion to respond without biasing the other results.

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Doing my bi-monthly round of heavy lifting for my grandparents today and yesterday and I can tell you Fox News and especially OAN is pretty much ignoring this stuff except when it can be explicitly laid at the feet of some dems. With bubbles like this Trumps immovable 30% sorta makes alot of sense, why the heII would you even want anything else if this is all the news you've been getting

Carter and Sn4tteRBoxXeR like this

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2 minutes ago, JayOzOne said:

They call me frequently. If they ask for me by name, I hang up. What sort of anonymous poll calls you by name? Others ask if I have a few minutes to answer just a handful of short questions and keep me on the line for 20 minutes. I swear, those only call if I'm (a)fixing dinner or (b)about to learn who the killer is without DVRing the program. I don't normally mind pollsters but they never call at a good time. The worst are those who want to know if you "strongly disagree", "disagree", "have no opinion", "agree" or "strongly agree". SMH. 90% of my answers are typically going to be exclusively "agree" or exclusively "disagree" but there's occasionally a "strongly disagree" thrown in to make sure I'm paying attention.

I'd love to participate in one just to mess with the pollster.

"How do you respond to the following question: I am in favor of universal healthcare even if it means marginally higher taxes on me and my family."

"Strongly disagree.  I'm in favor of mandatory euthanasia after age 35.  If you haven't procreated by then, society doesn't need your weak genes anyway."

mdrake34 likes this

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1 minute ago, AF89 said:

Doing my bi-monthly round of heavy lifting for my grandparents today and yesterday and I can tell you Fox News and especially OAN is pretty much ignoring this stuff except when it can be explicitly laid at the feet of some dems. With bubbles like this Trumps immovable 30% sorta makes alot of sense, why the heII would you even want anything else if this is all the news you've been getting

I should have known better based on the source of the recommendation, but maybe 6 months ago someone I know commented on FB that people should check out OAN.

I'll never get those minutes back.  It was awful.

Carter, AF89, mdrake34 and 1 other like this

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Just now, JDaveG said:

I'd love to participate in one just to mess with the pollster.

"How do you respond to the following question: I am in favor of universal healthcare even if it means marginally higher taxes on me and my family."

"Strongly disagree.  I'm in favor of mandatory euthanasia after age 35.  If you haven't procreated by then, society doesn't need your weak genes anyway."

That’s probably why they never call you.  ;)

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6 minutes ago, AF89 said:

Doing my bi-monthly round of heavy lifting for my grandparents today and yesterday and I can tell you Fox News and especially OAN is pretty much ignoring this stuff except when it can be explicitly laid at the feet of some dems. With bubbles like this Trumps immovable 30% sorta makes alot of sense, why the heII would you even want anything else if this is all the news you've been getting

Which is why I say, despite everything, I doubt Trump actually has fewer votes than he did in 2016, and winning the popular vote isn't enough to beat him for a Democrat.

Sn4tteRBoxXeR likes this

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Yeesh...

In her testimony, Ms. Hill described her fears that Mr. Sondland represented a counterintelligence risk because his actions made him vulnerable to foreign governments who could exploit his inexperience. She said Mr. Sondland extensively used a personal cellphone for official diplomatic business and repeatedly told foreign officials they were welcome to come to the White House whenever they liked.

Ms. Hill said that his invitations, which were highly unusual and not communicated to others at the White House, prompted one instance in which Romanian officials arrived at the White House without appointments, citing Mr. Sondland. 

Ms. Hill also testified that Mr. Sondland held himself out to foreign officials as someone who could deliver meetings at the White House while also providing the cellphone numbers of American officials to foreigners, the people said. Those actions created additional counterintelligence risks, she said.

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11 minutes ago, JDaveG said:

I should have known better based on the source of the recommendation, but maybe 6 months ago someone I know commented on FB that people should check out OAN.

I'll never get those minutes back.  It was awful.

They make Fox (at least 3 or 4 years ago) look like  Liberal tv in comparison.  It's like if you took Hannity segments and thier occasional buy gold/ patriot pills infomercials and decided to make a 24 hour concentration of that. They're essentially Infowars if Alex Jones mellowed out and took some freshman journalism. 

 

I think they're at least 10% to blame for Fox's even further batsh*t rightward late night programming shift (the other 90% being the inevitable Trump News Network we got coming)

 

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1 hour ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

 

"SAY TAXES!!!!! SAY TAXES ARE GOING UP!!! SAY IT !!! JUST SAY IT!!!"

Nah. Let people know by how much. Just release a financing plan for it. 

 

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