est.1981

"The Matt Ryan Rule" according to PFF

127 posts in this topic

13 hours ago, mc said:

Except TB has 9 appearances since 2001. Hurts your logic alot. 6 wins kills it.

Not really.  Brady makes around 15 mil a year so that money can be spent on other facets to make the team better.  He does this because his wife is way richer than him.  The going rate for a good starting QB not on a rookie deal is between 22-30 mil a year.  Without a salary cap this doesn't matter but it ain't the 90s anymore.

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59 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Yea I get what you’re saying. But I just want to point out that I didn’t say any of the 3 guys were consistently great either. All I said they have each played in at least 1 season where they have shown they have the ability to be elite

I actually understand your point too, but disagreeing with you doesn't make me a blind homer.

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5 hours ago, thamill said:

Not really.  Brady makes around 15 mil a year so that money can be spent on other facets to make the team better.  He does this because his wife is way richer than him.  The going rate for a good starting QB not on a rookie deal is between 22-30 mil a year.  Without a salary cap this doesn't matter but it ain't the 90s anymore.

Bradyz cap hit was 22 m last year and 27 this year. So tired of that false narrative

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22 hours ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Most teams now a days make it to the SB thanks to a cheap QB on a rookie year contract. It has been a trend for most of the last 7 years by at least one of the teams in the Superbowl. The 2016 SB between us and the Patriots was the only year it did not happen. In general, While you never want to lose your star QB, Typically re-signing them greatly lowers your chances of getting to/winning a SB unless their name is Tom Brady.

2018 - Rams with Goff on a rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2017 - Nick Foles on a cheap contract got the Eagles a SB. Wentz was also on a rookie deal. Beat Brady.
2016 - Us. Exception to Rule. Lost to Brady.
2015 - Cam on rookie deal. Lost to Peyton.
2014 - Seahawks with Russ on rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2013 - Seahawks again with Russ on Rookie deal. Destroyed Manning.
2012 - Ravens and 49ers both with QBs on rookie deals

So they mostly got to Superbowls without overspending at one position and like when Brady restructured?

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22 hours ago, Lornoth said:

Good for PFF but the NFL says the cutoff is much lower than Ryan's level. 

Exactly.  To me, saying “If your QB isn’t as good as Matt Ryan, keep looking” - isn’t the compliment many on here think.

Ryan is Top 6 or Top 5 and you can win a SB with a good 1-53 team with a Top 10 guy or worse (I am talking about you Nick Foles).

Matt Ryan is better than the standard for which he is being used by PFF.

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9 hours ago, thamill said:

Not really.  Brady makes around 15 mil a year so that money can be spent on other facets to make the team better.  He does this because his wife is way richer than him.  The going rate for a good starting QB not on a rookie deal is between 22-30 mil a year.  Without a salary cap this doesn't matter but it ain't the 90s anymore.

Brady: $22 million cap hit last year, $27 million this year.

Ryan: $17.7 million cap hit last year, $15.8 million this year.

This "Brady is a cheap team guy" stuff is so tired.

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4 minutes ago, Duff_Man said:

Brady: $22 million cap hit last year, $27 million this year.

Ryan: $17.7 million cap hit last year, $15.8 million this year.

This "Brady is a cheap team guy" stuff is so tired.

Good stuff.

While I like the Ryan's numbers, We have to keep in mind his hit is monstrous every year after. 

33.5m
36.0m
36.8m
31.7m

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9 hours ago, thamill said:

Not really.  Brady makes around 15 mil a year so that money can be spent on other facets to make the team better.  He does this because his wife is way richer than him.  The going rate for a good starting QB not on a rookie deal is between 22-30 mil a year.  Without a salary cap this doesn't matter but it ain't the 90s anymore.

Brady doesn't "make" around 15 mil a year - closer to 40 mil - they just pay him in a way that doesn't hurt the cap.   I think his cap hit this year is around 27 mil - and last year it was 22 mil.   

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2 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

53 data points over 53 YEARS 

most meaningless stats in all of sports 

Any “you need ___ to win a Super Bowl” is nothing more than hot air. It’s meaningless. 

OH!! I have one: You need AN NFL FOOTBALL TEAM to win a Super Bowl.

Prove me wrong.

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16 hours ago, athell said:

Agreed.  I hope he gets it man, really really do.

I do too, but right now it seems that his career arc continues as-is, he really on the bubble.  The MVP really helps but a Superbowl win would really help.

Due to Ryan being in the passing era, I don't think stats alone will get him there.

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On 5/15/2019 at 7:52 AM, PriMeTiiMe said:

Most teams now a days make it to the SB thanks to a cheap QB on a rookie year contract. It has been a trend for most of the last 7 years by at least one of the teams in the Superbowl. The 2016 SB between us and the Patriots was the only year it did not happen. In general, While you never want to lose your star QB, Typically re-signing them greatly lowers your chances of getting to/winning a SB unless their name is Tom Brady.

2018 - Rams with Goff on a rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2017 - Nick Foles on a cheap contract got the Eagles a SB. Wentz was also on a rookie deal. Beat Brady.
2016 - Us. Exception to Rule. Lost to Brady.
2015 - Cam on rookie deal. Lost to Peyton.
2014 - Seahawks with Russ on rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2013 - Seahawks again with Russ on Rookie deal. Destroyed Manning.
2012 - Ravens and 49ers both with QBs on rookie deals

Not sure if someone else has already responded with this, but I would argue that this phenomenon was brought on by the NFL adjusting rookie salaries (more specifically, 1st rounders). Prior to that occurring in 2011, the QBs making Super Bowl appearances were (using the previous 7 years):

 Brady: 2

 E. Manning: 2

 P. Manning: 2

 Brees: 1

 Roethlisberger: 3

 Rodgers: 1

 Hasselbeck: 1

 Rex Grossman: 1

 Kurt Warner: 1

 

For those guys, all but 2 were on their "second" contract (Grossman and Roethlisberger, who signed his 2 years later). You are absolutely correct that if you hit on a rookie-deal QB, you've basically struck gold for that 4 year period, but the determining factor is that you still need to actually hit on said QB. Without that, you're essentially the Bills or Browns. 

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18 hours ago, Cheap Talk said:

What you said has irony to it, because many lesser QBs win SBs, and are then considered better than Ryan because of it. If it could be known, SBs are not won on talent, but granted to that particular city on that given year for marketing or gaming. Talent is the least of it, so I get very bored hearing that Ryan has not won a SB yet. Turn Ryan and his Birds loose one year and see what happens?

The Falcons have had the best team in the NFL several times this decade, just not right, not right by any measure!

They were "turnt loose". 2016.

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On 5/15/2019 at 8:01 AM, Smiler11 said:

I get what they are trying to say but I think Matt Ryan is the wrong example here - Phillip Rivers, Big Ben or Andrew Luck would be all better examples. Over the last 5 years MR has consistently been a top 5 NFL QB, arguably top 3. Here are his ranks against his peers during that time frame:

Yards: 2nd

Completion %: 2nd

TD: 7th

INT: 6th (lowest)

QB Rating: 5th

 

Seriously, the last 3 years Matt Ryan has been better than Aaron Rodgers and he continues to get under rated.

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6 hours ago, Duff_Man said:

Brady: $22 million cap hit last year, $27 million this year.

Ryan: $17.7 million cap hit last year, $15.8 million this year.

This "Brady is a cheap team guy" stuff is so tired.

Not to mention how much Brady makes from the merchandise deal he has with the Patriots that doesn't count against the cap. That shady business deal that should be illegal.

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2 hours ago, JeffAtl said:

I do too, but right now it seems that his career arc continues as-is, he really on the bubble.  The MVP really helps but a Superbowl win would really help.

Due to Ryan being in the passing era, I don't think stats alone will get him there.

Ryan will probably end up with 70K yards and 450-500 TDs. That will get him in. He's said he wants to play until he's 40, if he does that ,we're talking 80 K and 500 TDs, That'll get him in too. A ring makes him first ballot.

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4 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Not to mention how much Brady makes from the merchandise deal he has with the Patriots that doesn't count against the cap. That shady business deal that should be illegal.

It probably will be illegal as soon as Belichick and Brady retire. 

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6 hours ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Good stuff.

While I like the Ryan's numbers, We have to keep in mind his hit is monstrous every year after. 

33.5m
36.0m
36.8m
31.7m

It’s why I didn’t particularly care for him restructuring this year.  Especially when Brown will likely not see much playing time next year

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31 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Ryan will probably end up with 70K yards and 450-500 TDs. That will get him in. He's said he wants to play until he's 40, if he does that ,we're talking 80 K and 500 TDs, That'll get him in too. A ring makes him first ballot.

A ring and he could retire next year and get in

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56 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Not to mention how much Brady makes from the merchandise deal he has with the Patriots that doesn't count against the cap. That shady business deal that should be illegal.

Or other teams should do stuff like that. Seriously, if the falcons found a loophole to pay Ryan under the table, I wouldn’t care 

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3 hours ago, JeffAtl said:

Due to Ryan being in the passing era, I don't think stats alone will get him there.

People say that, but then you look at the other QBs who are also in the same 'passing era' he's still really high on the list. Most of the currently active guys he trails all started at least 4 seasons before him. No one who was drafted after him is ahead of him, and he's crushing the 2 guys who are drafted the year he was and the year after ( Stafford and Flacco ).

If he plays 4 or 5 more years at just his average pace he's going to be a Top 5 QB stats wise.

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9 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Or other teams should do stuff like that. Seriously, if the falcons found a loophole to pay Ryan under the table, I wouldn’t care 

It's the Patriots. It pisses me off!! LOL!! My hatred of the Patriots goes back before Tom Brady was even a thing.

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