est.1981

"The Matt Ryan Rule" according to PFF

127 posts in this topic

It says if you have a Matt Ryan level or better QB, you pay them whatever you have to pay to keep them. If you're guy is at a lower level than Ryan, you don't and you keep looking.

Ryan level around top 8 guy is the cutoff point.

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By their own standards though, it's hard to judge Matt vs. somebody like Dak, because Matt has always had at least two top tier offensive threats to play with.

Dak owns the superior line and is not the passer that Matt has become over time, but there are so many variables that make it hard to gauge a pretty good QB's value to their team in a vacuum vs a really good one.

Brees is considered top tier but the Saints have had pretty bad years even with him.

Only the Pats and the Steelers to a lesser extent seem to have a floor of being a Superbowl contender every single year.

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Posted (edited)

Most teams now a days make it to the SB thanks to a cheap QB on a rookie year contract. It has been a trend for most of the last 7 years by at least one of the teams in the Superbowl. The 2016 SB between us and the Patriots was the only year it did not happen. In general, While you never want to lose your star QB, Typically re-signing them greatly lowers your chances of getting to/winning a SB unless their name is Tom Brady.

2018 - Rams with Goff on a rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2017 - Nick Foles on a cheap contract got the Eagles a SB. Wentz was also on a rookie deal. Beat Brady.
2016 - Us. Exception to Rule. Lost to Brady.
2015 - Cam on rookie deal. Lost to Peyton.
2014 - Seahawks with Russ on rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2013 - Seahawks again with Russ on Rookie deal. Destroyed Manning.
2012 - Ravens and 49ers both with QBs on rookie deals

Edited by PriMeTiiMe

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Except TB has 9 appearances since 2001. Hurts your logic alot. 6 wins kills it.

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1 hour ago, NOVAFalconFan said:

If your QB is as good as Matt Ryan or better, you can win.  If your QB isn’t as good as Matt Ryan, keep looking.

There’s only 4 QBs as good as Ryan though...

paulitik, vel, gazoo and 10 others like this

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I get what they are trying to say but I think Matt Ryan is the wrong example here - Phillip Rivers, Big Ben or Andrew Luck would be all better examples. Over the last 5 years MR has consistently been a top 5 NFL QB, arguably top 3. Here are his ranks against his peers during that time frame:

Yards: 2nd

Completion %: 2nd

TD: 7th

INT: 6th (lowest)

QB Rating: 5th

 

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1 hour ago, FalconAge said:

By their own standards though, it's hard to judge Matt vs. somebody like Dak, because Matt has always had at least two top tier offensive threats to play with.

Dak owns the superior line and is not the passer that Matt has become over time, but there are so many variables that make it hard to gauge a pretty good QB's value to their team in a vacuum vs a really good one.

Brees is considered top tier but the Saints have had pretty bad years even with him.

Only the Pats and the Steelers to a lesser extent seem to have a floor of being a Superbowl contender every single year.

It's because they have conviction in what they are doing as regards team building and coach hiring.  Those two teams don't change schemes coordinators or systems every three or four years.   Pats and Steelers already know how to win, they just execute that plan year after year, and win more often than not.

The blueprint for winning in the NFL is -right there- for everyone to see.  So why don't more teams follow that blueprint?  Two reasons:

The belief on the part of execs and coaches that they know a better way to win games (most the time they don't),

and impatience on the part of owners to win, now.  Right now.  Which causes ill conceived short term 'fixes' like trades for star players at or past their prime, or taking risks on hugely expensive FA's with issues (injury or character or age).

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1 hour ago, FalconAge said:

By their own standards though, it's hard to judge Matt vs. somebody like Dak, because Matt has always had at least two top tier offensive threats to play with.

Dak owns the superior line and is not the passer that Matt has become over time, but there are so many variables that make it hard to gauge a pretty good QB's value to their team in a vacuum vs a really good one.

Brees is considered top tier but the Saints have had pretty bad years even with him.

Only the Pats and the Steelers to a lesser extent seem to have a floor of being a Superbowl contender every single year.

Matt has had terrible lines and no real weapons and still thrown 4500 yards with a ~90 rating. 

Rhodaric, VTCrunkler, gazoo and 2 others like this

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1 hour ago, mc said:

Except TB has 9 appearances since 2001. Hurts your logic alot. 6 wins kills it.

No one else has Tom Brady or Bill as their coach so not really. Exceptions to the rule.

Schwarzwald likes this

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1 hour ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

Most teams now a days make it to the SB thanks to a cheap QB on a rookie year contract. It has been a trend for most of the last 7 years by at least one of the teams in the Superbowl. The 2016 SB between us and the Patriots was the only year it did not happen. In general, While you never want to lose your star QB, Typically re-signing them greatly lowers your chances of getting to/winning a SB unless their name is Tom Brady.

2018 - Rams with Goff on a rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2017 - Nick Foles on a cheap contract got the Eagles a SB. Wentz was also on a rookie deal. Beat Brady.
2016 - Us. Exception to Rule. Lost to Brady.
2015 - Cam on rookie deal. Lost to Peyton.
2014 - Seahawks with Russ on rookie deal. Lost to Brady.
2013 - Seahawks again with Russ on Rookie deal. Destroyed Manning.
2012 - Ravens and 49ers both with QBs on rookie deals

Great info.  Interesting....makes complete sense, though

Flying Falcon likes this

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19 minutes ago, droopy1592 said:

Matt has had terrible lines and no real weapons and still thrown 4500 yards with a ~90 rating. 

When has Ryan ever had no weapons?  Genuinely curious where you are going with this?

MoFalconsFan56 and ShadyRef like this

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2 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

When has Ryan ever had no weapons?  Genuinely curious where you are going with this?

He is probably referring to 2013 pointing out he still produces with those issues. Roddy was hurt mostly all year, Julio was gone the last 11 games and our #1 WR was Harry Douglas for at least half the season. Line was god awful. Had the 32nd ranked running game. Only bright spot was Tony G.

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6 minutes ago, PriMeTiiMe said:

He is probably referring to 2013 pointing out he still produces with those issues. Roddy was hurt mostly all year, Julio was gone the last 11 games and our #1 WR was Harry Douglas for at least half the season. Line was god awful. Had the 32nd ranked running game. Only bright spot was Tony G.

Valid point. He has never been without weapons going into a season, but many were injured that one year

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47 minutes ago, athell said:

Was gonna say...Matt should not be the cutoff point but w/e.  Continues to be underrated.  Water wet.  Sky blue.

I think they meant to say Matt Stafford. He could win a ring with a Top 3 D. 

athell likes this

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Just now, Falconsin2012 said:

Since 2016 it’s Brady & Ryan

Well taking weapons, lines, injuries into consideration, I’m fine with people arguing the others. Wilson has had zero help. Nada 

Schwarzwald likes this

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54 minutes ago, Smiler11 said:

I get what they are trying to say but I think Matt Ryan is the wrong example here - Phillip Rivers, Big Ben or Andrew Luck would be all better examples. Over the last 5 years MR has consistently been a top 5 NFL QB, arguably top 3. Here are his ranks against his peers during that time frame:

Yards: 2nd

Completion %: 2nd

TD: 7th

INT: 6th (lowest)

QB Rating: 5th

 

Yep, and just think what having an OL will do to those stats.

gazoo likes this

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