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Free Agency Period for determining 2020 Comp Picks ends today


theProf
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The free agency period for determining 2020 compensatory draft picks ends today.  Any Free Agents signed after today will not factor into the Compensatory Draft formula. So this is a good time to assess whether teams are entitled to comp picks or not, and if so, how many and which rounds. To make a long story short, it appears that the Falcons will NOT be entitled to any comp picks in the 2020 NFL draft.

I used to analyze the Falcons free agency situation, and then project comp picks for the Falcons based upon my analysis. However, OvertheCap starting making comp projections for each team and its projections are very good, so that I no longer need to do all the detailed work anymore.

OvertheCap is projecting that Atlanta LOST 3 Compensable Unrestricted Free Agents: (CUFAs): 

Tevin Coleman ($4.25million Average per Year APY),

Bruce Irwin ($4m APY) and

Justin Bethel ($2m APY). 

 

OvertheCap is projecting that Atlanta has SIGNED 3 CUFAs: 

Jamon Brown ($6.25m APY),

James Carpenter ($5.25m APY), and

Luke Stocker ($2.75m APY).

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

 

Therefore, Atlanta's projected NET LOSS = -0-, and thus NO comp picks. Comp picks are only awarded to those teams who have a NET LOSS of CUFAs. There is 1 exception whereby a team with a Net Loss of -0- might get a 7th-round comp pick, if the overall value of the players lost significantly exceeds the total overall value of the players signed. However, Atlanta will not fall under this exception, because the overall value signed exceeds the overall value lost.

We know that Atlanta lost Robert Alford ($7.5m APV) and Brooks Reed ($1.625m APV) in free agency to the Cardinals. However, these two players do NOT count in the comp formula, because they were CUT by Atlanta before their contracts expired. In the same manner, Adrian Clayborn ($2m APR) does not count as CUFA signing by Atlanta, because he was CUT by the Pats. Players who become UFAs by being Cut before their contract expires, do Not count in the compensatory formula.

However, not all uncut UFAs count in the compensatory formula, because some make less than a Minimum Threshold APV, which appears to be somewhere around $950,000 per year. That is why Jordan Richards ($895,000) and Ben Garland ($805,000) do NOT count as CUFAs Lost by Atlanta. The minimum threshold rule is also why Tyeler Davidson ($895,0000), Kenjon Barner ($895,000), JJ Wilcox ($895,000), and John Wetzel ($720,000) do NOT count as CUFAs Signed by the Falcons.

At first glance, I remember thinking that the loss of Brian Poole ($3.5m APY) to the Jets should count. However, Poole does NOT count because he was a RFA (Restricted Free Agent), and not an UFA (Unrestricted Free Agent). Neither would ERFAs (Exclusive Right Free Agents) count in the comp formula. Marvin Hall does Not count as a CUFA lost by Atlanta because he was an ERFA, plus his new salary is below the minimum threshold.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Once I saw the size of Carpenter & Brown’s contracts, I knew we were not getting any comp picks next year.  

That's not necessarily true.  Suppose that Atlanta had Not signed TE Luke Stocker in free agency. That would mean that the Falcons Lost 3 CUFAs and only signed 2 CUFAs (Carpenter and Brown, but excluding Stocker). In this scenario, the Falcons would have a NET LOSS of 1 CUFA, and thus entitled to 1 comp pick.

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5 minutes ago, theProf said:

That's not necessarily true.  Suppose that Atlanta had Not signed TE Luke Stocker in free agency. That would mean that the Falcons Lost 3 CUFAs and only signed 2 CUFAs (Carpenter and Brown, but excluding Stocker). In this scenario, the Falcons would have a NET LOSS of 1 CUFA, and thus entitled to 1 comp pick.

True...what I meant to say was we wouldn’t be getting any decent comp picks (4th or 5th round)

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"We know that Atlanta lost Robert Alford ($7.5m APV) and Brooks Reed ($1.625m APV) in free agency to the Cardinals."

However, these two players do NOT count in the comp formula, because they were CUT by Atlanta before their contracts expired

So don't word it that way in the first place?

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10 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

True...what I meant to say was we wouldn’t be getting any decent comp picks (4th or 5th round)

Yes I see your point.  However, it appears that $6 million APY is just a 6th-round compensation amount now, and no longer 5th-round. 

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5 minutes ago, quotemokc said:

"We know that Atlanta lost Robert Alford ($7.5m APV) and Brooks Reed ($1.625m APV) in free agency to the Cardinals."

However, these two players do NOT count in the comp formula, because they were CUT by Atlanta before their contracts expired

So don't word it that way in the first place?

I suppose a good many people would think that if a team lost a $7.5 m APY player in free agency, then that they should be compensated for that loss through a comp pick. However, that is not the way the compensation rule works, because players cut before contract expiration do not factor into the comp formula. Whether this particular rule is fair or not, I don't know. If the overall purpose of the compensatory draft system is to help maintain a degree of parity among teams, just like the regular draft itself, then this rule does not appear to be fair. However, I don't think it would be wise or fair to the players to encourage teams to cut high-priced players before contract expiration either, if they were to be able to get a comp pick by doing so.

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14 minutes ago, theProf said:

I suppose a good many people would think that if a team lost a $7.5 m APY player in free agency, then that they should be compensated for that loss through a comp pick. However, that is not the way the compensation rule works, because players cut before contract expiration do not factor into the comp formula. Whether this particular rule is fair or not, I don't know. If the overall purpose of the compensatory draft system is to help maintain a degree of parity among teams, just like the regular draft itself, then this rule does not appear to be fair. However, I don't think it would be wise or fair to the players to encourage teams to cut high-priced players before contract expiration either, if they were to be able to get a comp pick by doing so.

But they didn't have to say that we "lost them to the Cardinals"

Could have easily said, "since Alford and Reed were cut they do not warrant any compensation" instead of giving us the runaround.

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31 minutes ago, quotemokc said:

But they didn't have to say that we "lost them to the Cardinals"

Could have easily said, "since Alford and Reed were cut they do not warrant any compensation" instead of giving us the runaround.

Well it was not my intention to raise any kind of false hopes, even if ever so temporarily. I did clarify the situation in the very next sentence, beginning with the word "However".

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This explains why players like Ansah and Shelton are still unsigned. I expect they will find teams after today.

Unfortunately, it means we are unlikely to sign any big names - waiting for today wouldn't have helped. Signing them would not have made us lose a comp pick.

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3 hours ago, AustFalcon said:

This explains why players like Ansah and Shelton are still unsigned. I expect they will find teams after today.

Unfortunately, it means we are unlikely to sign any big names - waiting for today wouldn't have helped. Signing them would not have made us lose a comp pick.

Yep, teams who are in a possible positive compensatory draft situation, would prefer to wait until after the compensatory free agency period ends to sign any additional free agents. If they sign any additional  free agents after the free agency period ends, then these signings will not impact their comp picks.  Teams who are NOT in a compensatory situation would be willing to sign additional free agents at any point, as they would not impact potential compensatory draft picks.  

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