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Why Kaleb McGary looks like a great pick for the Atlanta Falcons

158 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, citsalp said:

Matt Ryan having time to eat a sandwich while his WR's break free....Priceless

If that ends up happening, I will agree.   

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3 hours ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Mathematics is the new player evaluation tool? Who would have thought of the

vertical as key?

Gotta love these researchers.

yes, analytics owns front offices of all major sports now. 

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10 hours ago, mtldirtybird said:

yes, analytics owns front offices of all major sports now. 

Bill Belichick on analytics: 'Really not a big thing with me'

 

Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick said that football analytics websites were "not real accurate," and on Wednesday he revisited the topic a day after the Browns hired Paul DePodesta, the former Dodgers general manager who relied heavily on analytics.

“I don’t know. That’s really not a big thing with me,” Belichick said of analytics as it pertains to his pregame preparations (via WEEI.com). “I’m sure you can go to the Northeastern analytics conference or whatever it is here in summer or the spring and get your fill of it. I’m sure there’s a lot there.”

Belichick is referring to the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference, which honored him with a lifetime achievement award last year. But the Patriots coach has no plans to implement a more stats-based approach to game-planning anytime soon.

“Nope. nope. We do some of it,” Belichick said. “I’m sure we do a lot less than a lot of other people do. It’s not really my thing.

 

“Look, I’ve done things all the way the back to the Giants and before that, doing them by hand. Look, if you’re out there coaching every day and to me, if you can’t see an 80 percent tendency, then what are you looking at? Now, is it 51-49, 49-51? I don’t know. What are you going to do with that? You want to bet on 51, you want to bet on 49 or bet on 55 or 45? At that point, what’s the difference?

Bill Belichick doesn't plan to go all-in on analytics anytime soon. (USATSI) Bill Belichick doesn't plan to go all-in on analytics anytime soon. (USATSI)

“I don’t see a big difference and I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on 55 and take my chances on 45. You’ve got to play it straight. But honestly, I think if an experienced coach can’t see 80-20 or 90-10, I don’t think that’s very good.”

For now, Belichick will lean on what got him to this point: film -- though he admits that it's a part of an overall evaluation strategy.

"It’s one tool," he said. "You break it down and you take information from that. Ultimately, that’s where it comes from. There are other components of it.”

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4 hours ago, Summerhill said:

I’ve always found that bench press is the drill the rubes obsessively lament about. 

agreed.   bench press is not the great stat for NFL future success that everyone makes it out to be and the top bench pressers are rarely the top players.

For bench press,  it's important for each position to hit some type of established "minimum" for the position - but benching the most is a useless figure.

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Had no idea the Falcons were one the NFL leaders in the use of Analytics! Could be why they have done so much better in the draft in recent years, compared to the first five years of TD's tenure, again coinciding with the introduction of Pioli.

Their Business Intelligence department is bigger than many Fortune 500 companies.

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I remember reading this article and was glad to see how bench and arm length don't correlate how people want it to. If McGary had 1" longer arms, would that change his game? Seriously? 

TD and Co. seem to do a very good job of marrying analytics and traditional scouting. There is value in analytics. Some old school coaches scoff at it (Riverboat Ron for example), but in the grand scheme of things, it's information and you choose what it's saying to you and what you do with it. 

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57 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Bill Belichick on analytics: 'Really not a big thing with me'

 

Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick said that football analytics websites were "not real accurate," and on Wednesday he revisited the topic a day after the Browns hired Paul DePodesta, the former Dodgers general manager who relied heavily on analytics.

“I don’t know. That’s really not a big thing with me,” Belichick said of analytics as it pertains to his pregame preparations (via WEEI.com). “I’m sure you can go to the Northeastern analytics conference or whatever it is here in summer or the spring and get your fill of it. I’m sure there’s a lot there.”

Belichick is referring to the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference, which honored him with a lifetime achievement award last year. But the Patriots coach has no plans to implement a more stats-based approach to game-planning anytime soon.

“Nope. nope. We do some of it,” Belichick said. “I’m sure we do a lot less than a lot of other people do. It’s not really my thing.

 

“Look, I’ve done things all the way the back to the Giants and before that, doing them by hand. Look, if you’re out there coaching every day and to me, if you can’t see an 80 percent tendency, then what are you looking at? Now, is it 51-49, 49-51? I don’t know. What are you going to do with that? You want to bet on 51, you want to bet on 49 or bet on 55 or 45? At that point, what’s the difference?

Bill Belichick doesn't plan to go all-in on analytics anytime soon. (USATSI) Bill Belichick doesn't plan to go all-in on analytics anytime soon. (USATSI)

“I don’t see a big difference and I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on 55 and take my chances on 45. You’ve got to play it straight. But honestly, I think if an experienced coach can’t see 80-20 or 90-10, I don’t think that’s very good.”

For now, Belichick will lean on what got him to this point: film -- though he admits that it's a part of an overall evaluation strategy.

"It’s one tool," he said. "You break it down and you take information from that. Ultimately, that’s where it comes from. There are other components of it.”

Bill is more of a "film your practices/steal your sideline signals/deflate balls/run an offense predicated on pick routes" kind of a guy.

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19 hours ago, falcons007 said:

Stats can’t predict injuries and attitude though. Duane Brown was terrible his first 2-3 years,  worse than Sam Baker. I expect McGary to be good but he has the right attitude and competitive toughness DQ looks at in a player. He sounds more nasty than Lindstorm.

That’s the entire point of analytics.  It isn’t the final decision on if someone is going to be good or not, it’s to help you swing the odds in your favor.  

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3 minutes ago, rings639 said:

That’s the entire point of analytics.  It isn’t the final decision on if someone is going to be good or not, it’s to help you swing the odds in your favor.  

Exactly. Analytics can tell you "Hey, no OT worth his weight in the NFL has succeeded if he didn't clear this athletic hurdle". You can fall in love with the film and not notice that. It's not perfect, but it's another data point. The more data points you have, theoretically the better decisions you should make. 

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1 hour ago, Cheap Talk said:

Had no idea the Falcons were one the NFL leaders in the use of Analytics! Could be why they have done so much better in the draft in recent years, compared to the first five years of TD's tenure, again coinciding with the introduction of Pioli.

Their Business Intelligence department is bigger than many Fortune 500 companies.

I seem to remember TD being on the analytics train during the mike Smith era. The difference is MS didn't have a clear vision of what the teams identity (especially on defense) should be where as DQ does

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2 hours ago, g-dawg said:

agreed.   bench press is not the great stat for NFL future success that everyone makes it out to be and the top bench pressers are rarely the top players.

For bench press,  it's important for each position to hit some type of established "minimum" for the position - but benching the most is a useless figure.

You guys are acting like every player with the top vertical becomes a good player.

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17 hours ago, Tim Mazetti said:

Mathematics is the new player evaluation tool? Who would have thought of the

vertical as key?

Gotta love these researchers.

All my favorite players of all time had good verticals. If you can jump you can play. Look at Brent grimes vertical? Spud Webb, Julio Jones. In OL and DL it’s even more impressive. The main things I look at during the combine is not 40 times. I look at 3 cone and vertical. Especially for big guys like OL, DL, and linebackers. I love 40 times don’t get me wrong but if you add a great vertical they are a superb athlete. Michael Vick had a good vert. In high school the way we knew a superior athlete was if you could dunk. Especially a smaller guy like me. It usually meant you were fast as the wind if you were under 6 feet and could dunk. 

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2 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

You guys are acting like every player with the top vertical becomes a good player.

No. Just a superior athlete but usually if they have 3 of the best attributes at the combine they become good players more than not. 

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2 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

No. Just a superior athlete but usually if they have 3 of the best attributes at the combine they become good players more than not. 

That I agree with but to act like just a vertical is the key and bench press is useless is ridiculous.

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6 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

You guys are acting like every player with the top vertical becomes a good player.

Not me.   But Bench Press is ridiculously overrated stat.

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Just to stir the pot a little @g-dawg and board favorite Tytus Howard who many proclaimed to be super athletic posted a 28inch vertical and horrible 3 time, y'all still think he's all that?

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12 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

That I agree with but to act like just a vertical is the key and bench press is useless is ridiculous.

Not by itself but in conjecture with a good 3 cone and bench that has the markings of a OLman that can be good. Shoot I’m high school I knew an athlete just if he could dunk. Especially if it was a big lineman or a guy under 6 feet like me. And that was all it took for me. If I saw you dunk I knew you were an athlete to some degree. I knew you had speed and if you were under 6 feet and were swift footed if you were big. Not just tall but big like  lineman. 

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1 hour ago, shockerfalcon said:

I seem to remember TD being on the analytics train during the mike Smith era. The difference is MS didn't have a clear vision of what the teams identity (especially on defense) should be where as DQ does

Fair enough, but by inference do not believe this to be a continuation of what we see the Falcons doing today. It is my opinion that Pioli brought the metrics over with him, without the right ones analytics is worthless.

The Falcons started drafting well in 2014, which was Pioli's first draft with the Falcons. Quinn was not with the Falons until the 2015 draft.

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