FalconsIn2012

3rd & Short Philosophy: Koetter

258 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Falconsin2012 said:

2012:  615 passes, 370 rushes

2013:  659 passes, 321 rushes

2014: 632 passes 320 rushes

KS: 537 passes, 431 rushes

Sark 2017:  530 passes 430 rushes

Sark 2018: 617 passes, 351 runs in 

2016 Tampa: 563 passes, 440 rush (good year)

2017 Tampa: 606 pass, 380 rush (bad year)

2018 Tampa: 625 passes, 388 rushes

Its not difficult to see which method works

There you go again with out context. The run- Pass is not just on OC. It depends on the points/drive and efficiency on offense and defense. The better break down is pass/run ratio when the scores are even or with in 7 points, when trailing by 2 scores or more. Leading by 2 scores are more. 

You can have a OC who is passing because the team is always behind with crappy defense. Tampa had that problem playing from behind or in shoot outs. Another meaningless stat is claiming a team won because RB had 30 carries. The QB and passing game along with defense may have given the lead, where an OC is running off the clock by lot of carries in 4th quarter. I would like to see a break down by score difference. The tendencies of OC is also dictated by the flow of the game, strength of defenses, offenses and so on.

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7 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

There you go again with out context. The run- Pass is not just on OC. It depends on the points/drive and efficiency on offense and defense. The better break down is pass/run ratio when the scores are even or with in 7 points, when trailing by 2 scores or more. Leading by 2 scores are more. 

You can have a OC who is passing because the team is always behind with crappy defense. Tampa had that problem playing from behind or in shoot outs. Another meaningless stat is claiming a team won because RB had 30 carries. The QB and passing game along with defense may have given the lead, where an OC is running off the clock by lot of carries in 4th quarter. I would like to see a break down by score difference. The tendencies of OC is also dictated by the flow of the game, strength of defenses, offenses and so on.

Its the NFL, not the Big 10.  Most games are competitive until the 4th Quarter.  It’s a full season, not a few games.  It’s clear that if you’re more balanced (60-40 is the most lopsided you’d want) you’re a better unit 

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I believe the run pass ratio % is overstated.

I also believe we must be adaptable in the idea that whatever is working that day we use that as more of a guide.

If we know a team is weak against the pass let Julio go for 300 we win.

If we are able to move the ball consistently early absolutely pound them don’t go to pass because.When we do go PA for example absolutely make sure they’ve sold out on the run 8,9 in the box or the depth of the LBers dictates us passing.Then hit em with Pass.

This is where the experienced playcaller on the field is important he must have the ability to sometimes dial something different that comes in from the sideline if he gets a feel in game to see and make the change and not ruffle feathers of his OC.

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21 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

There you go again with out context. The run- Pass is not just on OC. It depends on the points/drive and efficiency on offense and defense. The better break down is pass/run ratio when the scores are even or with in 7 points, when trailing by 2 scores or more. Leading by 2 scores are more. 

You can have a OC who is passing because the team is always behind with crappy defense. Tampa had that problem playing from behind or in shoot outs. Another meaningless stat is claiming a team won because RB had 30 carries. The QB and passing game along with defense may have given the lead, where an OC is running off the clock by lot of carries in 4th quarter. I would like to see a break down by score difference. The tendencies of OC is also dictated by the flow of the game, strength of defenses, offenses and so on.

This is true. 

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12 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Its the NFL, not the Big 10.  Most games are competitive until the 4th Quarter.  It’s a full season, not a few games.  It’s clear that if you’re more balanced (60-40 is the most lopsided you’d want) you’re a better unit 

That’s not necessarily true. In 2016 we usually had a 2 score lead which lead to the opposite team passing more to try and catch up. You have turnover factors that play a part of a team had to pass more. You have games that start out 14-0 in the 1st qtr. The final score is not always indicative of the full game. For instance the super bowl looked competitive in 2016 if you look at the final score but we dominated 3 and a half qtrs of that game. NE had to throw more and get unbalanced. 

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1 hour ago, Falconsin2012 said:

2012:  615 passes, 370 rushes

2013:  659 passes, 321 rushes

2014: 632 passes 320 rushes

KS: 537 passes, 431 rushes

Sark 2017:  530 passes 430 rushes

Sark 2018: 617 passes, 351 runs in 

2016 Tampa: 563 passes, 440 rush (good year)

2017 Tampa: 606 pass, 380 rush (bad year)

2018 Tampa: 625 passes, 388 rushes

Its not difficult to see which method works

2018 we fell behind in games and had to pass. Also we couldn’t run as well because the line was in shambles which lead to us passing more. So an unbalanced attack throughout a season usually means something went wrong and you had to play catch-up. Last year Tampa’s defense was bad and they couldn’t run the ball effectively. They had to pass. They also fell behind in games. When you can run the call effectively it usually leads to better balance by default. I don’t know why you’re making this into something extra but the better you can run the better balanced you will be. The worse your defense the increased probability of having to throw more to get back in the game. 

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5 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

2018 we fell behind in games and had to pass. Also we couldn’t run as well because the line was in shambles which lead to us passing more. So an unbalanced attack throughout a season usually means something went wrong and you had to play catch-up. Last year Tampa’s defense was bad and they couldn’t run the ball effectively. They had to pass. They also fell behind in games. When you can run the call effectively it usually leads to better balance by default. I don’t know why you’re making this into something extra but the better you can run the better balanced you will be. The worse your defense the increased probability of having to throw more to get back in the game. 

Not trying to be contrary, but we averaged 4.5 ypc, good for 10th if I remember right

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39 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

That’s not necessarily true. In 2016 we usually had a 2 score lead which lead to the opposite team passing more to try and catch up. You have turnover factors that play a part of a team had to pass more. You have games that start out 14-0 in the 1st qtr. The final score is not always indicative of the full game. For instance the super bowl looked competitive in 2016 if you look at the final score but we dominated 3 and a half qtrs of that game. NE had to throw more and get unbalanced. 

We didn’t, though

Only 5 games were beyond 10 points during regular season if memory serves.  3 in the last 4 weeks

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4 hours ago, Falconsin2012 said:

65-35 pass run = 9 wins

60-40 pass run = playoffs 

55-45 pass run = special season

Thats my prediction

If they get to 45% rushing, it's because they had several games where they had big 4th quarter leads and spent the last quarter just rushing the ball. Which would be great, but isn't the balance you mean.

Think they'll get that lead though, with 65-70% passing first 3 quarters, with enough runs to keep the defense off guard, make play action work and short yardage.

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55 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Its the NFL, not the Big 10.  Most games are competitive until the 4th Quarter.  It’s a full season, not a few games.  It’s clear that if you’re more balanced (60-40 is the most lopsided you’d want) you’re a better unit 

Final score may be or may not be. By quarter by quarter it’s different. Take the NFCG in 2016 or even the Carolina game in week 2. Partners scored most points by passing late in 4th quarter. It was passing for them when they got behind and never ran the ball. Final score was much closer but game wasn’t competitive for 3.5 quarters. I don’t even want to bring SB.

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18 minutes ago, falconidae said:

If they get to 45% rushing, it's because they had several games where they had big 4th quarter leads and spent the last quarter just rushing the ball. Which would be great, but isn't the balance you mean.

Think they'll get that lead though, with 65-70% passing first 3 quarters, with enough runs to keep the defense off guard, make play action work and short yardage.

That’s all matters. First 3 quarters score lot of points and run the clock out and wear the defense in 4th quarter with lead. And the defense can play aggressively pinning the ears on QB.

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25 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

We didn’t, though

Only 5 games in the regular season were beyond 10 points during regular season if memory serves.  3 in the last 4 weeks

That’s the problem, final margin isn’t indicative of how many quarters the game was competitive. They are as useless as total run pass ratio.

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26 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

We didn’t, though

Only 5 games were beyond 10 points during regular season if memory serves.  3 in the last 4 weeks

We went up on teams in the 3rd qtr. we had at least 6 games we held the opposing team to zero points opening the lead to 2 scores. That’s the reason we want the ball in the second half. Score before half and score again first drive of the 3rd qtr. that’s usually where we went up 2 scores. 

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2 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

That’s the problem, final margin isn’t indicative of how many quarters the game was competitive. They are as useless as total run pass ratio.

We held teams scorless in the 3rd qtr 6 times I believe and took a 2 score lead. Might have been 9 times. I purposely used that to show how we took the foot off the gas in the 4th because we were up so big. 

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Just now, TheFatboi said:

We held teams scorless in the 3rd qtr 6 times I believe and took a 2 score lead. Might have been 9 times. I purposely used that to show how we took the foot off the gas in the 4th because we were up so big. 

Yep, which is one of the reason i am excited about Ollison. In 2016, we weren’t successful in 4 min offense in 4th quarter. A big back who can run out the clock would help. First 3 quarters, score as many points. NE is very effective, they score in first 3 Qtrs and run the ball to close out. If anything this 2019 falcons draft is a classic NE draft.

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On 5/2/2019 at 7:02 PM, athell said:

If Carpenter starts along with Matthews/Mack/Lindstrom and McGary we will be the first oline in NFL history to start 1st round picks all down the line.

Even if you add Jamon Brown it would still be all 1st rounders.

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7 hours ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Again, a QB he actually likes and is comfortable with

So elite RB and bad QB he runs

Elite to good QB and bad RB he passes, huh. Sounds like he uses what he's given.

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1 minute ago, GATXBOI said:

Even if you add Jamon Brown it would still be all 1st rounders.

Thought ham was a mid rounder?  I'd have to look.

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Just now, Yo_Lover said:

He was a third 

**** one of the podcast I was listening to got that wrong time to unsubscribe. Lol

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36 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

We didn’t, though

Only 5 games were beyond 10 points during regular season if memory serves.  3 in the last 4 weeks

2016 2 score leads by 3rd qtr

saints 38-25 3rd qtr final score 45-32

panthers 31-10 3rd qtr final score 48-33

chargers 27-17 at half. LOST THAT GAME 30-33

Bucs 33-14 3rd qtr final score 43-28

cards 24-13 3rd qtr final score 38-19

rams 42-0 3rd qtr final score 42-14

49ers 38-13 3rd qtr final score 41-13

panthers 23-13 final score 33-16

saints 38-13 3rd qtr final score 38-32  looked like it was a good game. it wasn’t  

 

I won’t get into the playoffs. The point is teams had to pass a lot on us in 2016 because we ran up the score by the 3rd qtr. Hence we made them 1 dimensional and unbalanced. Eb and flow of the game.  the final score IS NOT indicative of a competitive game. 

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19 minutes ago, falcons007 said:

Yep, which is one of the reason i am excited about Ollison. In 2016, we weren’t successful in 4 min offense in 4th quarter. A big back who can run out the clock would help. First 3 quarters, score as many points. NE is very effective, they score in first 3 Qtrs and run the ball to close out. If anything this 2019 falcons draft is a classic NE draft.

Exactly. 

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28 minutes ago, TheFatboi said:

2016 2 score leads by 3rd qtr

saints 38-25 3rd qtr final score 45-32

panthers 31-10 3rd qtr final score 48-33

chargers 27-17 at half. LOST THAT GAME 30-33

Bucs 33-14 3rd qtr final score 43-28

cards 24-13 3rd qtr final score 38-19

rams 42-0 3rd qtr final score 42-14

49ers 38-13 3rd qtr final score 41-13

panthers 23-13 final score 33-16

saints 38-13 3rd qtr final score 38-32  looked like it was a good game. it wasn’t  

 

I won’t get into the playoffs. The point is teams had to pass a lot on us in 2016 because we ran up the score by the 3rd qtr. Hence we made them 1 dimensional and unbalanced. Eb and flow of the game.  the final score IS NOT indicative of a competitive game. 

Couldn’t have said it any better. That’s why flow of the game is important for coordinators and HC. The good ones manage the game flow well.

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Looking forward to this team being able to close out  games on the ground, they get the ball back with a 7 point lead and 4 minutes left, and grind out 2 first downs on the ground to win the game.

 

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9 hours ago, TheFatboi said:

There won’t be any change. His job is to coach TE’s. Not the OL. His experience will be vital in what he may see on the field but we have an OL coach that’s getting paid to do a job. 

This is from TD today:

We needed to change the outlook of our OLine similar to the colts did.. The run game had to improve... Mike Mularkey is important to the run game side of things

We want to have 4 running backs (going into the season)

Free is coming back healthy this  year

We wanted to add a legit big back 225-230lbs that can pass protect , catch and has a lil speed to him. (Ollison)”

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