3rd & Short Philosophy: Koetter

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

Dirk Koetter loves to preach balance, yet history shows he is pass happy.  This is especially true in short yardage situations. The graph below is troubling...if the trend continues, our success will run hot & cold with him as our OC.  Over two seasons we only attempted 6 runs on 3rd & 2.  Tragic.  Hopefully the FO had this in mind when rebuilding the OL this offseason

I honestly think it can be a banner season if our run-to-pass ratio is around 45-55.  We need more 2016 and less 2013-2015

[Tim Mazetti 11,128]

He was with TB. They didn't have a RB. And in addition, a crappy OL.

[FalconFanSince1970 21,159]

3 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Dirk Koetter loves to preach balance, yet history shows he is pass happy.  This is especially true in short yardage situations. The graph below is troubling...if the trend continues, our success will run hot & cold with him as our OC.  Over two seasons we only attempted 6 runs on 3rd & 2.  Tragic.  Hopefully the FO had this in mind when rebuilding the OL this offseason

I honestly think it can be a banner season if our run-to-pass ratio is around 45-55.  

You've been a fan since 2012 so you should know Kutty prefers a quick screen over a dive play any day of the week. I heard Mularkey will be influencing the run game. If that's the case expect more runs. That will make play action more effective and set up some gadget plays.

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

Just now, FalconFanSince1970 said:

You've been a fan since 2012 so you should know Kutty prefers a quick screen over a dive play any day of the week. I heard Mularkey will be influencing the run game. If that's the case expect more runs. That will make play action more effective and set up some gadget plays.

I’ve been a fan since 85...but a TATF fan since 2012

[GATXBOI 821]

Man that's the old koetter. This offense is a trifecta of Koetter Murlarky and Shanny offense. I don't see this being your same ol pass happy aerial attack. WE BIG NOW AND WE GOT POWER BITXH. 

[Falcons_Frenzy 2,402]

I think the NFL trend is becoming pass on 3rd and short. I do miss the big backs bowling ball their way on short yardage like Lewis and Bettis.

[ltstorm2 4,753]

4 minutes ago, Falcons_Frenzy said:

I think the NFL trend is becoming pass on 3rd and short. I do miss the big backs bowling ball their way on short yardage like Lewis and Bettis.

I think you'll see the opposite.  Teams now have drafted defenses to contend with the spread attacks the NFL is becoming.  The cycle is coming back around to having more power run plays to defeat defenses set up to defend the pass.

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

2 minutes ago, ltstorm2 said:

I think you'll see the opposite.  Teams now have drafted defenses to contend with the spread attacks the NFL is becoming.  The cycle is coming back around to having more power run plays to defeat defenses set up to defend the pass.

It’s why NE built a huge line and went back to power running two years ago.  Bill is always two steps ahead.  When the rest catch up, he will already moving in the next direction

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

48 minutes ago, Tim Mazetti said:

He was with TB. They didn't have a RB. And in addition, a crappy OL.

These are from his time as our OC between 2013-2014

[athell 23,855]

4 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

It’s why NE built a huge line and went back to power running two years ago.  Bill is always two steps ahead.  When the rest catch up, he will already moving in the next direction

Interesting graph here, peep NE...

Success rates seem higher across the board for the most part passing vice running...

[falconidae 21,055]

53 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Dirk Koetter loves to preach balance, yet history shows he is pass happy.  This is especially true in short yardage situations. The graph below is troubling...if the trend continues, our success will run hot & cold with him as our OC.  Over two seasons we only attempted 6 runs on 3rd & 2.  Tragic.  Hopefully the FO had this in mind when rebuilding the OL this offseason

I honestly think it can be a banner season if our run-to-pass ratio is around 45-55.  We need more 2016 and less 2013-2015

Interesting, although Koetter wasn't here in 2015. And 2013 is when the Oline started falling apart. That really might reflect Koetter's  opinion on the Oline and the chances of making 2 yards on the ground rather than his true preference.

[Knight of God 46,792]

8 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

It’s why NE built a huge line and went back to power running two years ago.  Bill is always two steps ahead.  When the rest catch up, he will already moving in the next direction

Also go look at the line. How many first rounders starting?

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

3 minutes ago, athell said:

Interesting graph here, peep NE...

Success rates seem higher across the board for the most part passing vice running...

BTW, that’s an incredible research tool.   Where did you get it?

And am I reading it wrong?  

Its measuring 3rd & 1 in 2018.  Run success and Pass success.  Right?

If so, running on 3rd & 1 is 15% more successful.  Look at Baltimore on runs...lol

[athell 23,855]

2 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Also go look at the line. How many first rounders starting?

0 last year, though Wynn would have made 1.

[athell 23,855]

2 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

BTW, that’s an incredible research tool.   Where did you get it?

And am I reading it wrong?  

Its measuring 3rd & 1 in 2018.  Run success and Pass success.  Right?

If so, running on 3rd & 1 is 15% more successful.  Look at Baltimore on runs...lol

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html

So I did 3rd and 1-3 yards and yeah BAL run run run that rock.  To your point though as well, NE ran 50 times vs passed 35.

[Knight of God 46,792]

1 minute ago, athell said:

0 last year, though Wynn would have made 1.

Almost always a no name line. Same system as Saban. This is why I never use anything from the Patriots as an example 

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

4 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Also go look at the line. How many first rounders starting?

Maybe Trent Brown?

All I know is we have more 1st rounders on our OL than NE had in their entire starting offense and defense last year 

[athell 23,855]

Just now, Knight of God said:

Almost always a no name line. Same system as Saban. This is why I never use anything from the Patriots as an example 

lol they are playing a different game man...

[athell 23,855]

Just now, Falconsin2012 said:

Maybe Trent Brown?

All I know is we have more 1st rounders on our OL than NE had in their entire starting offense and defense last year 

If Carpenter starts along with Matthews/Mack/Lindstrom and McGary we will be the first oline in NFL history to start 1st round picks all down the line.

[Tim Mazetti 11,128]

20 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

These are from his time as our OC between 2013-2014

Yep. Things have changed.

[Knight of God 46,792]

8 minutes ago, athell said:

If Carpenter starts along with Matthews/Mack/Lindstrom and McGary we will be the first oline in NFL history to start 1st round picks all down the line.

That’s a lot of pressure 

[falconidae 21,055]

5 minutes ago, athell said:

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html

So I did 3rd and 1-3 yards and yeah BAL run run run that rock.  To your point though as well, NE ran 50 times vs passed 35.

Baltimore had Jackson as their QB for much of the year. I imagine that the proportion would be much the same for Cam's early years.

Wondering if Baltimore's success running the ball skews the numbers.

 

Man, if the Falcons can run the ball on 3rd and 1, they're gonna win a lot of  games this year.

[falconsd56 18,334]

38 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

These are from his time as our OC between 2013-2014

Which he still did not have a consistent running back and had a bad oline (2014 started good but it was decimated by injury)

[FalconsIn2012 20,706]

41 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

Almost always a no name line. Same system as Saban. This is why I never use anything from the Patriots as an example 

If Cleveland would have been patient, what could have been.  Imagine 1995 with Belichick as HC, Saban as DC, Hue as OC....Lombardi and TD scouting, Ozzie Newsome as GM

[falconsd56 18,334]

26 minutes ago, athell said:

If Carpenter starts along with Matthews/Mack/Lindstrom and McGary we will be the first oline in NFL history to start 1st round picks all down the line.

That would be cool....until the first sack happens or the first tackle for loss is given up and then the 8594 threads about how bad the o line is will commence