Opportunity Cost - Players Falcons couldn't draft because of Kaleb McGary trade-up

[g-dawg]

op·por·tu·ni·ty cost

noun

ECONOMICS

 

1. the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen.

   "idle cash balances represent an opportunity cost in terms of lost interest"

 

OK, I have heard enough beotching and moaning the last 3 days about not having a pick on Day#2 - I get it - it's frustrating when your team is not drafting in two entire rounds - I don't like it either.  However it has been overstated in a few ways and wanted to set the record straight - most of you already get this so preaching to the choir with many of you.

First, the Falcons didn't give up TWO picks to take Kaleb McGary.   They traded ONE pick - the #79 pick in the third round - for the right to move up from #2-045 to #1-031.   We also got a 6th round pick back that Falcons used to select WR/RB/KR Marcus Green - so technically the trade didn't cost us a pick per se - although obviously not selecting in the 3rd round was harmful overall as we missed on some good prospects.

However, what SPECIFIC prospects did the Falcons miss out on?    Well, had Falcons not traded up for McGary, they absolutely would have missed out on an OT.  Between #31(where we traded up for McGary) and #45 where our original 2nd round pick was - the following OT's came off the board - Jawaan Taylor(Jaguars-#2-035), Greg Little(Panthers-#2-037), Cody Ford(Bills#2-038), Dalton Risner(#2-041).   So when Thomas Dimitroff got up to the podium on Thursday night and said that he and Quinn and their scouting staff figured out if they didn't move up for McGary they might get shut out altogether at the top of the offensive tackle market he was 100% correct.  McGary wouldn't have been there and none of those other guys would have been there either.  The only ones left after our #45 pick were Max Scharping, Trey Pipkins, Chuma Edoga, and Yodny Cajuste - all went in late 3rd round except for Scharping

CONCLUSION:    Dimitroff's reasoning for moving up to grab a great RT prospect was 100% correct.

 

Now, who did we "Miss out on?".   The only players you can say the Falcons missed out on are the players between picks #3-079(pick traded to Rams) and pick #4-117.   Those players are as follows:

79.  Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta): David Long, CB (Michigan)

80. Cleveland Browns: Sione Takitaki, LB (BYU)

81. Detroit Lions (from Minnesota): Will Harris, S (Boston College)

82. Tennessee Titans: Nate Davis, G (Charlotte)

83. Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Layne, CB (Michigan State)

84. Kansas City Chiefs (from Seattle): Khalen Saunders, DT (Western Illinois)

85. Baltimore Ravens: Jaylon Ferguson, DE (Louisiana Tech)

86. Houston Texans: Kahale Warring, TE (San Diego State)

87. New England Patriots (from Chicago): Damien Harris, RB (Alabama)

88. Seattle Seahawks (from Philadelphia via Detroit and Minnesota): Cody Barton, LB (Utah)

89. Indianapolis Colts: Bobby Okereke, LB (Stanford)

90. Dallas Cowboys: Connor McGovern, G (Penn State)

91. Los Angeles Chargers: Trey Pipkins, T (Sioux Falls)

92. New York Jets (from Kansas City via Seattle and Minnesota): Chuma Edoga, T (USC)

93. Baltimore Ravens (from New Orleans via New York Jets and Minnesota): Miles Boykin, WR (Notre Dame)

94. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Los Angeles Rams): Jamel Dean, CB (Auburn)

95. New York Giants (from New England via Cleveland): Oshane Ximines, LB (Old Dominion)

96. Buffalo Bills (from Washington) (compensatory): Dawson Knox, TE (Ole Miss)

97. Los Angeles Rams (from New England) (compensatory): Bobby Evans, T (Oklahoma)

98. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Los Angeles Rams) (compensatory): Quincy Williams, LB (Murray State)

99. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Los Angeles Rams) (compensatory): Mike Edwards, S (Kentucky)

100. Carolina Panthers (compensatory): Will Grier, QB (West Virginia)

101. New England Patriots (from New England via Los Angeles) (compensatory): Yodny Cajuste, T (West Virginia)

102. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore) (compensatory): Alexander Mattison, RB (Boise State)

Round Four:

103. Arizona Cardinals: Hakeem Butler, WR (Iowa State)
104. Cincinnati Bengals (from San Francisco): Ryan Finley, QB (North Carolina State)
105. New Orleans Saints (from New York Jets): Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S (Florida)
106. Oakland RaideNers: Maxx Crosby, DE (Eastern Michigan)
107. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anthony Nelson, DE (Iowa)
108. New York Giants: Julian Love, CB (Notre Dame)
109. Indianapolis Colts (from Jacksonville via Oakland): Khari Willis, S (Michigan State)
110. San Francisco 49ers (from Cincinnati): Mitch Wishnowsky, P (Utah)
111. Atlanta Falcons (from Detroit): Kendall Sheffield, CB (Ohio State)
112. Washington Redskins (from Buffalo): Bryce Love, RB (Stanford)
113. Baltimore Ravens (from Denver): Justice Hill, RB (Oklahoma State)
114. Minnesota Vikings (from Green Bay via Seattle): Dru Samia, G (Oklahoma)
115. Carolina Panthers: Christian Miller, LB (Alabama)
116. Tennessee Titans (from Miami via New Orleans and New York Jets): Amani Hooker, S (Iowa)

 

BLUE = these are the only players that could even be conceivably argued that the Falcons missed the opportunity to draft in that window.  This totals 20 players.  I eliminated players at positions we already drafted on the offensive line as we weren't taking more offensive linemen and we weren't taking a QB, Punter and excluded Tight End as well.  Of those 20, I would say Falcons probably only would have really been interested in 10 as follows:

1. Justin Layne, CB - Michigan (worked him out)
2. Khalen Saunders, DT - Western Illinois (showed him some love at Senior Bowl)
3. Jaylon Ferguson, DE - La Tech (showed interest at Senior Bowl and believe we had a private workout)
4. Damien Harris, RB - Alabama (just find it hard to believe we wouldn't have been at least a little interested in him)
5. Cody Barton, LB - Utah (was drafted by Seattle - if for no other reason than that).
6. Jamel Dean, CB - Auburn (size/speed corner in SEC)
7. Oshane Ximenes, OLB - Old Dominion  (twitchy edge rusher/light in pants)
8. Chauncey Gardner Johnson, CB/S - Florida - I bet DQ would have been all over this guy - went to the F'ng Saints
9. Maxx Crosby, DE - Eastern Michigan - small school guy that we met /worked out possibly
10. Julian Love, CB - Notre Dame - don't know why he dropped to 4th round - good all around corner

So, if any of these 10 become super studs and Kaleb McGary doesn't - then of course the Falcons made a mistake - of course, which one would we have taken?  any guarantees they will do great? I'm sure 2-3 of those 10 above might have good NFL careers - but probably more flops in there.

My main point is we only missed selecting ONE player - and while that one player is from a potential pool of 38 players - there are only about 10 or so we would likely have even considered.  For all we know, Quinn and Dimitroff might have taken Kendall Sheffield at #79 - I doubt it - but it's possible.

 

[Tim Mazetti]

I love this pic posted by @Yo_Lover

 

[Monolith2001]

Doesn't matter.  It's in the books and these are our 2019 Atlanta Falcons.  Excited to see these guys compete.

[MSalmon]

Good write up. I’m like you in that it was boring with no picks. But in reality there weren’t a ton of players we might have drafted. Ferguson and Harris and Crosby stand out. I prefer cominsky over Ferguson and Ollie over Harris so in the end I’m happy with the turnout. The green pick was just awesome in the sixth, I love that kid

[Dem Birds]

Yeah and they wanted Kaleb McGary more than any of them and they got him. 

[gtech1]

I'm not sure most of the people here do get this.  Lol.

[E. T.]

We got players we targeted. Did we miss some targets too?....Yes, but all in all, we had a good draft and addressed some weaknesses.

There's still many talented players out there that we can bring in....Its nowhere near over building this team.

[takeitdown]

Agreed.  I actually didn't like the trade up.

But it's not even that it's wrong if one of those 10 blow up.  One of those guys probably will be great.  But we were only going to get to select one.  The likelihood that that one blows up is unlikely.

So we'd really have to know who the Falcons would have taken there.  I really wanted Khalen Saunders.  So that one will hurt my feelings if he takes off, but I have no idea if they would have even taken him.

If we hadn't traded...we wouldn't get to bet on 10 guys.  We would have had to bet on 1.  And that'd be the only fair way to judge it...pick your guy now, and see if he blows up.

 

[youngbloodz]

Every draft every team miss out on players they target. 

[Jesus]

There seemed to be a lot of punters drafted.

[NWFALCON]

2 minutes ago, Jesus said:

There seemed to be a lot of punters drafted.

A few kickers too. Looking at you Tampa Bay. 

[dodge_birds_fan]

23 minutes ago, Dem Birds said:

Yeah and they wanted Kaleb McGary more than any of them and they got him. 

#logic

[Flying Falcon]

Meh

[g-dawg]

12 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Agreed.  I actually didn't like the trade up.

But it's not even that it's wrong if one of those 10 blow up.  One of those guys probably will be great.  But we were only going to get to select one.  The likelihood that that one blows up is unlikely.

So we'd really have to know who the Falcons would have taken there.  I really wanted Khalen Saunders.  So that one will hurt my feelings if he takes off, but I have no idea if they would have even taken him.

If we hadn't traded...we wouldn't get to bet on 10 guys.  We would have had to bet on 1.  And that'd be the only fair way to judge it...pick your guy now, and see if he blows up.

 

Well said.   Of the 10 I highlighted, Falcons could only have bet on one.   It was hopefully the right move.

[takeitdown]

Just now, g-dawg said:

Well said.   Of the 10 I highlighted, Falcons could only have bet on one.   It was hopefully the right move.

Yeah the clear hope is McGary goes great and then you don't even really care.

For value based drafters (the direction I lean toward), the Falcons are always going to be frustrating, because they very much find their guy, and don't see others as equivalent.  If it works, I'm all good.

[TNFalcon1]

Good post. Well thought out with a logical conclusion, therefore waiting on the usual characters to start whinging.

[Tim Mazetti]

4 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Well said.   Of the 10 I highlighted, Falcons could only have bet on one.   It was hopefully the right move.

It was.

Per @Yo_Lover:

McGary: Super aggressive, will not wait for you. He is coming for you.

[falcons007]

Cost of not drafting McGary? 

TD and DQ’s Job? Poor run game? Matt Ryan injury?

[TheDirtyWordII]

44 minutes ago, Tim Mazetti said:

I love this pic posted by @Yo_Lover

 

He looks like he’s about to fight in The Battle of Winterfell...

[ryanadonis]

have you seen our O-line?  Yeah, it was time to make a move to put pieces in place

[g-dawg]

4 minutes ago, R_The_Great said:

have you seen our O-line?  Yeah, it was time to make a move to put pieces in place

Are you talking to me? I like it

[ryanadonis]

2 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Are you talking to me? I like it

No i was talking to the poster who was mad at the trade up

[Butudontseeme™]

There’s not even a guarantee those specific guys are available. If we stay at 45 and the rams pick at 31, they likely pick a player that sends a small ripple effect through the remainder of the draft, someone else gets McGary instead of whomever they picked and teams targeting a RT may or may not get the guy they actually picked Friday. 

[Knight of God]

When you really look at it, I don’t see many I was really that high on. It was a thin draft, but the FO made a way. Went outside the box. Years of experience. TD needs to stay

[VTCrunkler]

26 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Battle of Winterfell...

cant wait for that tonight