Francis York Morgan

Some perspective from one of this Draft's haters

48 posts in this topic

37 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

I don't retract my disagreement with how we've spent our Draft and FA cumulatively. However, the picks themselves are something I think we may well look back on as really solidifying this line, potentially for the next decade.

First off, some background. RAS stands for Relative Athletic Score. It's a metric created by Kent Platte, and it compares things like size, speed, explosion, and agility to previous prospects. It's remarkably effective at projecting future success for draft picks, especially on the OL. Of the 25 pro bowl tackles selected in the first round that have been measured by this metric, 21 have over a 8.00 RAS. Looking over all the metrics, low scores are consistently excellent at predicting bad players, and high scores are consistently excellent at predicting good players.

The same logic seems to apply to Falcons drafts. Since 2008, we have made a total of 13 OL picks under Dimitroff. These are their RAS scores, already adjusted to account for the increase in athleticism of prospects coming out.

Adjusted RAS Scores

Sam Baker: 4.32
Garrett Reynolds: 1.35
Mike Johnson: 1.91
Joe Hawley: 6.71
Andrew Jackson: 6.34
Peter Konz: N/A (scores not calculated, didn't do anything but bench, which went poorly - a bad sign in and of itself)
Lamar Holmes: 5.01
Jake Matthews: 9.50
Jake Rodgers: 6.93
Wes Schweitzer: 7.38
Sean Harlow: 5.96
Chris Lindstrom: 9.84
Kaleb McGary: 9.83

As you can see, I've already bolded the ones who were over that 8.0 score criteria. Pretty impressive, right? I'd be hard pressed to spend an early pick on a guy who didn't fit this criteria after looking up the details.

https://relativeathleticscores.com/2017/01/17/ot-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/
https://relativeathleticscores.com/2017/01/17/og-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/

Look at the ones there that are first round picks. It's almost like there isn't a shot at them being busts. It's incredible, really. If all holds true, our line should look immensely improved this year.

Still iffy on the defense...but, eh. Here's hoping.

Glad you have somewhat come around. But I get the apprehension. I wanted Wilkins. 

dsgbncali likes this

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Speaking of defense Denver is talking to teams about trading Chris Harris CB,  if they took a 4th this year and maybe a 2nd next year there's a corner, I know he's a slot corner but is proven and durable, wants a big raise but would be beneficial if TD could make the numbers work, I don't like Vic getting 12-14 mill but it is what it is, he's a chunk of cap space for the return, maybe Quinn can get more out of him

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Adjusted RAS Scores

Sam Baker: 4.32
Garrett Reynolds: 1.35
Mike Johnson: 1.91
Joe Hawley: 6.71
Andrew Jackson: 6.34
Peter Konz: N/A (scores not calculated, didn't do anything but bench, which went poorly - a bad sign in and of itself)
Lamar Holmes: 5.01
Jake Matthews: 9.50
Jake Rodgers: 6.93
Wes Schweitzer: 7.38
Sean Harlow: 5.96
Chris Lindstrom: 9.84
Kaleb McGary: 9.83

 

9.76 for Gono.

Edited by fan since 1968

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Trashing players before they take a snap with the team isn't going to change anything. 

Lindstrom, mcgarry,  and other players drafted won't be extra motivated by reading your opinion. 

 

Family and friends won't push them to work harder to please a fan base of doubters.

 

Veterans may not read your posts but young kids, their friends, and family likely will 

 

 

Either you have absolutely no faith in blank, the FO, or the coaches to learn from previous mistakes .

Or you can trust them, and believe in what they are doing. 

These decisions are a product of self evaluating and planning to fixing. 

 

They overestimated their players and coaches to overcome injuries. 

They overestimated the ability to scheme around weakness. 

 

They brought in 2 OCs with experience with college and professional experience developing OLine.

They brought in REAL  competition for 3 OL and 2 DT positions. 

 

They avoided drafting the higher graded players for players with less worry of failing. 

 

Taylor and Ford have executives that truly expect them to bust.

Lindstrom and mcgarry don't have those.

Matthews and Ryan were graded the same way. Sound fundamentally,  but wont be first ballot HOFer. But they also weren't wasted 1st round picks. 

Drafting  OL players because of how they were graded, and ignoring red flags have cost this team badly (LH,PK)

Trust the team's evaluation process 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, dekalbs#2 said:

Trashing players before they take a snap with the team isn't going to change anything. 

Lindstrom, mcgarry,  and other players drafted won't be extra motivated by reading your opinion. 

Family and friends won't push them to work harder to please a fan base of doubters.

Veterans may not read your posts but young kids, their friends, and family likely will 

Either you have absolutely no faith in blank, the FO, or the coaches to learn from previous mistakes .

Or you can trust them, and believe in what they are doing. 

These decisions are a product of self evaluating and planning to fixing. 

They overestimated their players and coaches to overcome injuries. 

They overestimated the ability to scheme around weakness. 

They brought in 2 OCs with experience with college and professional experience developing OLine.

They brought in REAL  competition for 3 OL and 2 DT positions. 

They avoided drafting the higher graded players for players with less worry of failing. 

Taylor and Ford have executives that truly expect them to bust.

Lindstrom and mcgarry don't have those.

Matthews and Ryan were graded the same way. Sound fundamentally,  but wont be first ballot HOFer. But they also weren't wasted 1st round picks. 

Drafting  OL players because of how they were graded, and ignoring red flags have cost this team badly (LH,PK)

Trust the team's evaluation process 

You should probably read the OP before writing the essay. I pretty much said they both have Pro Bowl potential. 

This was a really weird response haha

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16 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

He moves well for his size imo 

My issue is he stands straight up and many times defenders run right past him.. Check out some game film

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5 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:
2014 OT Greg Robinson Auburn 9.4 9.3
2009 OT Lydon Murtha Nebraska 9.96 10
2015 OT Brian Mihalik Boston College 9.95 10
2006 OT Winston Justice Southern California 9.92 10
2004 OT Robert Gallery Iowa 9.91 10

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11 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

I don't retract my disagreement with how we've spent our Draft and FA cumulatively. However, the picks themselves are something I think we may well look back on as really solidifying this line, potentially for the next decade.

First off, some background. RAS stands for Relative Athletic Score. It's a metric created by Kent Platte, and it compares things like size, speed, explosion, and agility to previous prospects. It's remarkably effective at projecting future success for draft picks, especially on the OL. Of the 25 pro bowl tackles selected in the first round that have been measured by this metric, 21 have over a 8.00 RAS. Looking over all the metrics, low scores are consistently excellent at predicting bad players, and high scores are consistently excellent at predicting good players.

The same logic seems to apply to Falcons drafts. Since 2008, we have made a total of 13 OL picks under Dimitroff. These are their RAS scores, already adjusted to account for the increase in athleticism of prospects coming out.

Adjusted RAS Scores

Sam Baker: 4.32
Garrett Reynolds: 1.35
Mike Johnson: 1.91
Joe Hawley: 6.71
Andrew Jackson: 6.34
Peter Konz: N/A (scores not calculated, didn't do anything but bench, which went poorly - a bad sign in and of itself)
Lamar Holmes: 5.01
Jake Matthews: 9.50
Jake Rodgers: 6.93
Wes Schweitzer: 7.38
Sean Harlow: 5.96
Chris Lindstrom: 9.84
Kaleb McGary: 9.83

As you can see, I've already bolded the ones who were over that 8.0 score criteria. Pretty impressive, right? I'd be hard pressed to spend an early pick on a guy who didn't fit this criteria after looking up the details.

https://relativeathleticscores.com/2017/01/17/ot-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/
https://relativeathleticscores.com/2017/01/17/og-relative-athletic-scores-ras-table/

Look at the ones there that are first round picks. It's almost like there isn't a shot at them being busts. It's incredible, really. If all holds true, our line should look immensely improved this year.

Still iffy on the defense...but, eh. Here's hoping.

Excellent post man. Would you happen to have the scores for James Carpenter and Jamon? Thanks!

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10 hours ago, duckhoa said:

FJM, 

you are starting to sound like old Kayoh with his metrics for DE.

Love this type of information.

Thanks.

Anyone know where is he? I love reading his posts and takes on players based on his formula. I wonder if he likes these picks and how the stack up with his data. 

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9 hours ago, k-train said:

For what it's worth, former Falcons OG Chris Chester, who was a C coming out of college has the highest RAS score for a center. He scored a 10.

Fusco actually had a 9.1

Alex Mack got a score of 8.3

I guess Wes is getting cut. Lol

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9 hours ago, dekalbs#2 said:

Trashing players before they take a snap with the team isn't going to change anything. 

Lindstrom, mcgarry,  and other players drafted won't be extra motivated by reading your opinion. 

 

Family and friends won't push them to work harder to please a fan base of doubters.

 

Veterans may not read your posts but young kids, their friends, and family likely will 

 

 

Either you have absolutely no faith in blank, the FO, or the coaches to learn from previous mistakes .

Or you can trust them, and believe in what they are doing. 

These decisions are a product of self evaluating and planning to fixing. 

 

They overestimated their players and coaches to overcome injuries. 

They overestimated the ability to scheme around weakness. 

 

They brought in 2 OCs with experience with college and professional experience developing OLine.

They brought in REAL  competition for 3 OL and 2 DT positions. 

 

They avoided drafting the higher graded players for players with less worry of failing. 

 

Taylor and Ford have executives that truly expect them to bust.

Lindstrom and mcgarry don't have those.

Matthews and Ryan were graded the same way. Sound fundamentally,  but wont be first ballot HOFer. But they also weren't wasted 1st round picks. 

Drafting  OL players because of how they were graded, and ignoring red flags have cost this team badly (LH,PK)

Trust the team's evaluation process 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You start an account just to tbis? You could have just read the post and saved yourself the trouble.

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46 minutes ago, ShadyRef said:

I guess Wes is getting cut. Lol

He lost the starting job heading into last year & only got it back because both Levitre & Fusco were placed on IR. On top of that, he's in the final year of his contract & based on what he's shown thus far, it's unlikely they'd feel the need to keep him around after this season anyhow. Cutting him saves $2M w/ only $33k in dead money, so he's almost certainly the most expendable OL on the team.

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I think it's @g-dawg who often says it, but if you draft a day 1 starting O-lineman, and that's clearly what they expect from Lindstrom, he's going to play 100% of your offensive snaps (barring injuries of course). Any D-line player we would have selected is playing 60-70% at most, often considerably less. Grady Jarrett and Deadrin Senat played 25% and 33% respectively as rookies.

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8 minutes ago, k-train said:

He lost the starting job heading into last year & only got it back because both Levitre & Fusco were placed on IR. On top of that, he's in the final year of his contract & based on what he's shown thus far, it's unlikely they'd feel the need to keep him around after this season anyhow. Cutting him saves $2M w/ only $33k in dead money, so he's almost certainly the most expendable OL on the team.

Totally forgot about that. I wonder how many offensive linemen we will carry this season. I can't imagine them cutting both fusco and wes to immediately toss Lindstrom in to the mix. I know he is tagged as a day 1 starter prospect but we don't want to find ourselves in a position similar to the defense last season hoping for rookies to step up in case of injuries as the first line of depth.  Now if he clearly outperforms fusco in camp I hope they still keep both. 

I just want both rookie linemen to have a chance to develop first before we have to rely on them. 

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23 minutes ago, k-train said:

He lost the starting job heading into last year & only got it back because both Levitre & Fusco were placed on IR. On top of that, he's in the final year of his contract & based on what he's shown thus far, it's unlikely they'd feel the need to keep him around after this season anyhow. Cutting him saves $2M w/ only $33k in dead money, so he's almost certainly the most expendable OL on the team.

Why would we cut Wes whereas if we just don't sign him we could get a comp pick.

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