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Mel Kiper's Final Mock Draft

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ESPN INSIDER Mel Kiper's Final Mock Draft 

The 2019 NFL draft is finally here, and it's time for one last first-round mock draft. This is a projection of where I think guys could come off the board based on what I'm hearing, not a reflection of my final rankings. Still, check out my top 300 Big Board and position rankings to see where I have the rest of the class. Trades change the draft every year, and I don't expect 2019 to be any different. I'm not including trades in my 1-32 projection, but I will note the picks that could see action.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

I'm sticking with 99.9 percent here. There has just been too much smoke the past two months. Murray could be a star for new coach Kliff Kingsbury.

2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State

Bosa is my top-ranked prospect in this class, and the Niners have to improve their edge rush. Easy pick for GM John Lynch.

3. New York Jets: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

This is a spot to watch for a team trying to trade up. The Jets have holes all over their roster. If they stay at No. 3, they should get pass-rushing help, and they can't go wrong with Williams or Josh Allen.

4. Oakland Raiders: Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky

Jon Gruden would be thrilled -- he loves playmakers on both sides of the ball. Allen had 17 sacks and five forced fumbles last season. He's a force off the edge.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, ILB, LSU

The fit is too perfect, but keep a close eye on the pass-rushers, too. White is a sideline-to-sideline star.

6. New York Giants: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

No quarterback here, but Oliver would fill a need for the Giants. He could play end in a 3-4 defense.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Have you seen the Jacksonville tight end depth chart? Nick Foles needs a weapon. The No. 7 pick is another spot to keep an eye on with trades.

8. Detroit Lions: Brian Burns, OLB, Florida State

This offseason in Detroit is about giving coach Matt Patricia some defensive pieces with which to work. Burns is a big-time athlete and excellent, ascending edge rusher.

9. Buffalo Bills: Jonah Williams, OT/G, Alabama

I wrote Wednesday that I just love the match between Williams and Buffalo. He could play guard or tackle.

10. Denver Broncos: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Will there be a trade up to get Haskins? For now, I think Denver makes the most sense. With Joe Flacco in Denver for at least a year, there's no pressure on Haskins to start immediately. He's raw, but you can't teach his accuracy and touch.

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan

Will Cincinnati pull the trigger on a quarterback here? I'm not so sure. Bush fills a void and could be a steal. Some teams like Bush more than White.

12. Green Bay Packers: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

Right tackle is a sneaky long-term need in Green Bay. Taylor's future is at tackle, but he could play guard in Year 1 if needed. He's a mauler in the run game.

13. Miami Dolphins: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

If Miami really is waiting until 2020 to get a quarterback, GM Chris Grier & Co. should go with the best player available here. Miami has holes at several positions. Wilkins is an underrated pass-rusher, and he's one of the best locker room guys in this draft.

14. Atlanta Falcons: Cody Ford, OT/G, Oklahoma

Ford, who played both tackle and guard in college, could start at right tackle immediately for Atlanta. He plays with an edge -- he wants to dominate defenders. I thought about defensive tackle here, too.

15. Washington Redskins: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

This was the toughest pick of the bunch. Remember: I'm not projecting trades here, which could blow up everything. If Lock or Haskins is still on the board at No. 15, though, I expect Washington to go with a quarterback. Lock has a high ceiling.

16. Carolina Panthers: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

Edge rusher is a clear need for Carolina -- Rashan Gary is still available -- but Dillard, the best true pass protector in this class, would improve this team. He might play right tackle if he goes here.

17. New York Giants (from CLE): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

Could Jones fall into GM Dave Gettleman's lap? I like Jones' potential, but he should sit and learn for a year behind Eli Manning.

18. Minnesota Vikings: Chris Lindstrom, G, Boston College

I expect an offensive lineman for Minnesota, and there should still be good options on the board. Lindstrom is my top-ranked guard.

19. Tennessee Titans: Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan

Gary is dropping a little bit, but he has all the talent in the world to be an all-pro player. His issue is consistency. Could Mike Vrabel and Dean Pees get the best out of him?

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

If the top two inside linebackers are gone, cornerback makes the most sense for Pittsburgh. Murphy is my top-ranked corner. He tracks the ball in the air well, and he plays faster than his 4.55 40-yard dash.

21. Seattle Seahawks: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State

This is great value for Sweat, and Seattle just dealt its best pass-rusher in Frank Clark. GM John Schneider has to address the pass rush with one of these first-round picks.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Erik McCoy, C/G, Texas A&M

I expect the Ravens to try to trade down, but their biggest hole is at the interior offensive line. I have picked McCoy to the Ravens in previous mocks, and I'll stick with it.

23. Houston Texans: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

Houston needs help at offensive tackle, but with Dillard and Ford gone, I'll move to defensive back. Williams is a polarizing prospect, but he is very talented. The Texans should use their two second-round picks on offensive linemen.

24. Oakland Raiders (from CHI): Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

Leave it to Gruden to take the first running back off the board. Jacobs is a three-down, explosive player.

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

If you're keeping count, Brown would be the first wide receiver picked. I can see a few 75-yard catch-and-runs in his future with Carson Wentz throwing him the ball. He'd be a teammate of his closest pro comp, Desean Jackson.

26. Indianapolis Colts: Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State

If Simmons were healthy, he might be a top-10 pick. He's extremely talented. But after he tore his ACL in February, Indy could stash him for a few months and see if he's ready for the playoffs.

27. Oakland Raiders (from DAL): Darnell Savage Jr., S, Maryland

Savage is one of the biggest risers since the combine, a ball hawk who ran a 4.36 40-yard dash in Indianapolis. He's a Gruden kind of player.

28. Los Angeles Chargers: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson

This pick should be interior offensive line or defensive tackle. Lawrence is the best nose tackle in the draft, and the Chargers were gashed up the middle by the Patriots in the playoffs. Lawrence will plug gaps.

29. Seattle Seahawks (from KC): Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State

This is a little bit of a reach on my board -- I have a second-round grade on Layne -- but he fits the profile that Pete Carroll likes in defensive backs. Layne is 6-foot-2 with a huge wingspan.

30. Green Bay Packers (from NO): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

Fant would essentially be a 6-foot-4 slot receiver as a rookie, but Aaron Rodgers won't complain.

31. Los Angeles Rams: Garrett Bradbury, C/G, NC State

I thought about defensive line for the Rams, but Bradbury's versatility to play guard or center is a plus.

32. New England Patriots: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson What are the chances that New England keeps this pick? Bill Belichick & Co. have six selections the first two days. Ferrell is the best edge rusher available, but there's also a thought inside the league that he could play defensive tackle. We know Belichick likes versatile defenders.

Tim Mazetti likes this

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Ty Sambrailo

$3.25M cap hit this year ($5M cap hit if we cut him now, $3M if we cut after 6/1/19)

$5.75M cap hit next year ($2M cap hit if we cut after this season before next season, $1M - after 6/1/20)

This is not what you pay a backup - the Falcons are not going after an OT in the 1st round.

They also paid the new OG's a lot and still have Fusco around (and Schweitzer).  They maybe they could look at Ford as an OG, but his starting time would be next year more likely than this year.  And, Quinn's concerns are about surviving this season not next season.

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8 minutes ago, jlrfalcon said:

Ty Sambrailo

$3.25M cap hit this year ($5M cap hit if we cut him now, $3M if we cut after 6/1/19)

$5.75M cap hit next year ($2M cap hit if we cut after this season before next season, $1M - after 6/1/20)

This is not what you pay a backup - the Falcons are not going after an OT in the 1st round.

They also paid the new OG's a lot and still have Fusco around (and Schweitzer).  They maybe they could look at Ford as an OG, but his starting time would be next year more likely than this year.  And, Quinn's concerns are about surviving this season not next season.

one out of two mocks have in their brief analysis:  Ty Sambrailo cant cut it..or isnt going to cut it...

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50 minutes ago, athell said:

Unless we trade the farm for Oliver, I still feel like we go OL so this may be the pick...

There really hasn't been a lot of smoke  about OL to the birds...

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Just now, VTCrunkler said:

one out of two mocks have in their brief analysis:  Ty Sambrailo cant cut it..or isnt going to cut it...

I am not saying I agree Ty is the best.  However, just like Beasley convinced Quinn to keep him around, Ty convinced Quinn he would be a starter (note I also did not point out his contract is for 3 years-for a backup?). 

We then signed Wetzel to be the backup and still have Gono around.  And, Matthews is not going anywhere on the other side.  This is a big crowd if we then bring in a rookie OT who would be expected to start?

I am somewhat leaning toward Ed Oliver today as it makes somewhat sense we trade up for him and plan him as a hybrid DE/DT role - he is almost too small for a DT and has great speed.  There is definitely less of a crowd at the DE position and perhaps a little competition would get Beasley to improve.

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1 minute ago, jlrfalcon said:

I am not saying I agree Ty is the best.  However, just like Beasley convinced Quinn to keep him around, Ty convinced Quinn he would be a starter (note I also did not point out his contract is for 3 years-for a backup?). 

We then signed Wetzel to be the backup and still have Gono around.  And, Matthews is not going anywhere on the other side.  This is a big crowd if we then bring in a rookie OT who would be expected to start?

I am somewhat leaning toward Ed Oliver today as it makes somewhat sense we trade up for him and plan him as a hybrid DE/DT role - he is almost too small for a DT and has great speed.  There is definitely less of a crowd at the DE position and perhaps a little competition would get Beasley to improve.

oh yeah, its just confusing.  there are varying opinions on TY.  looks like we will roll with he and Wetzel as depth.  couldnt get any worse that Schrader last year...

its going to be a very interesting draft.  cant wait.  i like ed, but #3 sounds too rich for me...

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I think Cody Ford starts right away at guard and will need a year at tackle but I think he is the best pick. I want either him, Taylor, or Jonah Williams. This would be a darn good draft and I would be happy. 

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1 minute ago, Since1990 said:

For all you youngins! This actually happened back in the day!

 

i remeber that.  he was so pLssed at mel.  back when mel was new...man thats hittin gthe way back machine

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14 minutes ago, Shelley#37 said:

There really hasn't been a lot of smoke  about OL to the birds...

Exactly lol

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Going to be pretty let down if we grab Ford. This is a weak OL class. Grab another position of need with top tier prospects instead of reaching for a mid-tier one. 

Tim Mazetti likes this

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First time I’ve seen this. He and I actually match up on nearly a dozen picks, and positions on several others. Obviously my mock is doomed, lol.

 

I have Dexter Lawrence as our pick, but Ford is a close second. I’d be very happy if he’s the guy. 

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19 hours ago, athell said:

Unless we trade the farm for Oliver, I still feel like we go OL so this may be the pick...

NAILED IT!!!

athell likes this

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