In MMQB style: 10 things I think I think-Falcons (G-Dawg)

[g-dawg]

For years, I always looked forward to Sports Illustrated's Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback - and many times if I didn't like the weekly topic, would race to the back and the "10 Things I Think I Think" - which was generally chocked full of either interesting quotes from NFL owners/GMs/Scouts/Coaches/Players or some insight gleaned from some of them - usually the last of the 10 was more general random.

So thought I would do a "Falcons Draft version" of this.  Here goes:

 

G-Dawg:   10 Things I think I think:

1. After studying this draft -for entirely too long - and looking at our team, this first pick most likely is gonna be a Defensive Tackle - most likely Christian Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence - in that order.   If Falcons select Lawrence, they trade down and do so - if they trade down and lose Lawrence, they will draft an offensive lineman in 1st round (See #5 below).
2. Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver are both on the radar but Falcons won't go higher than #6 to get either one of them.  I would lay odds of a trade-up for either of these guys at 20% - not likely.
3. Any trade-up back into the 1st round would be for an offensive lineman - not a cornerback.  The goal of this draft is to continue to build more physical/nasty  on both lines of scrimmage.
4. University of Houston's Isaiah Johnson is the most likely cornerback to be drafted by Atlanta.  Expect him to be a Day#2 selection - hopefully he falls to #79.
5. OG/OT Chris Lindstrom from Boston College is VERY HIGH on the Falcons draft board and he is the most likely trade-up target back into the 1st round if he drops towards the end of 1st round.   Falcons see him as a starting Day#1 Right Tackle.
6. If the Atlanta Falcons don't acquire Chris Lindstrom, look for them to draft Charlotte OG/OT Nate Davis - another maurading right tackle - his draft stock is higher than most think but would expect him to be available in 3rd round.
7. Defensive End/Edge Rusher is most likely pushed to a Day#3 pick.  Falcons will be looking at BIGGER guys their and go against the smaller/quicker guys like Takk/Vic.   Look for Day#3 Defensive End prospects like Charles Omenhiu, Austin Bryant, Anthony Nelson, Jonathan Ledbetter and Jamal Adams.
8. Expect the Falcons to break the streak and draft at least one Georgia Bulldog - either Lamont Gaillard(4th), Mecole Hardeman(5th), Jonathan Ledbetter(5th) or Elijah Holyfield(6th).  Simply too many good Dawgs at too many need positions for the Falcons for us not pull one of those tags off the board.
9. The Atlanta Falcons will make THREE trades in this draft.   One trade back and two trades up.  The ultimate goal is to end up with the following - two first round picks - 1st pick in first round (WILKINS or LAWRENCE) and 2nd pick in the first round (LINDSRTOM or FORD).
10.   These are my non-draft Falcons thoughts:

 A)  Falcons get a Grady Jarrett deal done before June 15th.  When Arthur Blank says "Julio and Grady will be Falcons for Life" he means it.   Last time I checked, it's Artie's team.   Jarrett will get more than everyone here thinks he should get but it will be less than AD.  My guess is it will be 5yrs, $90mm for an $18mm/yr average.

B ) Look for vast improvements in the Falcons defense as Quinn takes it over.  I heard him talking about running more stunts than what we have done in the past to free up Takk and Vic.

C )  Look for Falcons marketing team to come up with some creative way to get Falcons fans in their seats prior to kickoff.  Some type of giveaway that you only get if you get in the stadium doors 30 minutes prior to kickoff.

D) Look for Julio Jones to have his biggest TD production of his career this year.  With the emergence of Calvin Ridley and an improved running game, I expect Julio to get more unstacked coverage than in year's past - they will still slant coverage his way, but not as much.

E) Expect a better running game and more 11 personnel with two tight ends on the field.

F)  Continued emergence of Foye Oluokon as a defensive playmaker.

G)  Lingering health issues for Ricardo Allen.   Falcons brought in a lot of safeties - maybe just camp bodies but we have seen the Keanu Neal workout videos but nothing for Rico - of course Achilles is a worse injury than ACL.

H)  Expect the Falcons to really put more emphasis this year on pre-season game#3 than in the past -  the Falcons were a little too laisse faire about pre-season - with Falcons brutal schedule this year, they need to be hitting on all cylinders in Game#1.

         

[Falcons_Frenzy]

You hit the nail on the head here. Alot of truth.

[MasterBateser]

Agree with everything except #7.

[MasterBateser]

1 minute ago, Falcons_Frenzy said:

You hit the nail on the head here. Alot of truth.

Please don't quote the entire OP my man

[Falcons_Frenzy]

11 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

Please don't quote the entire OP my man

Fixed

[Ridder Me This]

24 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

For years, I always looked forward to Sports Illustrated's Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback - and many times if I didn't like the weekly topic, would race to the back and the "10 Things I Think I Think" - which was generally chocked full of either interesting quotes from NFL owners/GMs/Scouts/Coaches/Players or some insight gleaned from some of them - usually the last of the 10 was more general random.

So thought I would do a "Falcons Draft version" of this.  Here goes:

 

G-Dawg:   10 Things I think I think:

1. After studying this draft -for entirely too long - and looking at our team, this first pick most likely is gonna be a Defensive Tackle - most likely Christian Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence - in that order.   If Falcons select Lawrence, they trade down and do so - if they trade down and lose Lawrence, they will draft an offensive lineman in 1st round (See #5 below).

         

 

Love it all except this....read my comments in another post....I actually don't see DT as an option in Round 1....actually I don't see it at all in this draft...

We have traditionally only carried 4 DTs on gameday roster and 5 DEs....

Grady, Senat, Crawford, Davison, Hageman, Zimmer...do the math....I think EO and Wilkins are gone by #14 (EO in Top 5 and Wilkins to BUF)....I think Falcons trade back in 1st round but want OL all along, which is Lindstrom...and I also think they get Nate Davis...both guys and cut bait with Fusco and Wes (saves $5 million on 2019 cap...which is used for Julio and/or Debo extension b/c their 2019 cap figures will go up on any extension, especially Debo).

We literally have TWO boundary corners on teh roster that palyed more than 30 snaps TOTAL last year...think about that for a second....

Draft:

(trade back with HOU)

1. Lindstrom OT/OG/OC...starts at RT, backup OG, moves to OC in 2020

2. Winovich DE...takes up Reed and Irvins snaps...see my comments in the signing FA before draft thread on his ability....

2. J. Layne CB....depth boundary CB

3. N. Davis OT/OG....backup OG and emergency OT....could become starter at RT in 2020

(trade up using both 4s)

3. I. Johnson CB...depth boundary CB

5. Cole Holcomb...depth at LB and speed...can cut Campbell as I see Foye supplanting him...if only playing 30% of defensive snaps bc in Nickel, saves $2m for extensions

5. Marcus Green RET/WR

6. Michael Dogbe DE/DT (competes with AC at 5T and also potential rotational piece at 3T

7. Tyler Newsome P (BOsher cut saves another $2 million in 2019 for extensions)

Edited April 23, 2019 by Matt_The Iceman_Ryan

[FalconsIn2012]

You must be bored, but as usual, very well done G-Dawg.

Ill take Nate Davis over Lindstrom, though.  Do you Think we can get Crosby in 4th?

[Summerhill]

All seems sensible but I'm wondering about playing Lindstrom at RT. Usually college interior linemen stay on the inside in the NFL. Braden Smith just made that change last year but it is pretty rare and he is a good athlete, probably more athletic than Lindstrom. 

Edited April 23, 2019 by Summerhill

[MasterBateser]

9 minutes ago, Falcons_Frenzy said:

Fixed

You the best.

[g-dawg]

10 minutes ago, Matt_The Iceman_Ryan said:

Grady, Senat, Crawford, Davison, Hageman, Zimmer...do the math....I think EO and Wilkins are gone by #14 (EO in Top 5 and Wilkins to BUF)....I think Falcons trade back in 1st round but want OL all along, which is Lindstrom...and I also think they get Nate Davis...both guys and cut bait with Fusco and Wes (saves $5 million on 2019 cap...which is used for Julio and/or Debo extension b/c their 2019 cap figures will go up on any extension, especially Debo).

Grady - only franchise anchor inside.

Senat - just a guy

Crawford - DE/DT tweener - last year of his deal - often injured

Davison - run-stopper/ one year deal

Hageman - camp body / longest of long shots

Zimmer - Who?

 

When you start throwing NAMES against the wall to try and make a point, it strains credibility.   Of all the names you mentioned, the only player likely still on the roster in 2021 other than Grady is Senat.   Stop it.

 

If I wanted to play that game, let's do it w/ edge rusher:

Takkarist McKinley - 1st round draft pick

Vic Beasley - Top 10 draft pick

Adrian Clayborn - brought back on 1 year deal

Jack Crawford - 1 year left - plays DT/DE

Steve Means - backup

 

Same/Same

 

[Ridder Me This]

3 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

All seems sensible but I'm wondering about playing Lindstrom at RT. Usually college interior linemen stay on the inside in the NFL. Braden Smith just made that change last year but it is pretty rare and he is a good athlete, probably more athletic than Lindstrom. 

Lindstrom: 6'4" 308lbs 34" arms; 4.91 40, 25 BP, 30.5" VJ, 117" BJ, 7.61 3C

B. Smith: 6'6" 315lbs 32" arms; 5.22 40, 35 BP, 33.5" VJ, 113" BJ, no 3C

 

The reason why many think LIndstrom can paly Rt is for one, he did for 11 games in 2017...and the arm length and foot quickness is there....

[TheDirtyWordII]

Some astute observations, particularly as it relates to Allen. We’ve gone back and forth on CB...but if the Falcons are looking for legit depth (not developmental depth)...they’ll hit FA after the draft.

I’ve found it interesting that we’re starting to hear murmurs of CAR/HOU trying to trade into the Top 13.  That makes me think three OL could go before us, which would be a nice development for DT @ 14.  

Ultimately, I think the NFL might be higher on Lawrence than Wilkins and I think a reason for that is once coaches get involved in the draft process, they look at a guy like Lawrence and see the possibilities and what ‘they’ could mold him into.

As far as Jarrett...I agree on the long term deal bing done by 7/15.  But I think he goes north of $18M AAV.

[Ridder Me This]

3 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Grady - only franchise anchor inside.

Senat - just a guy

Crawford - DE/DT tweener - last year of his deal - often injured

Davison - run-stopper/ one year deal

Hageman - camp body / longest of long shots

Zimmer - Who?

 

When you start throwing NAMES against the wall to try and make a point, it strains credibility.   Of all the names you mentioned, the only player likely still on the roster in 2021 other than Grady is Senat.   Stop it.

 

If I wanted to play that game, let's do it w/ edge rusher:

Takkarist McKinley - 1st round draft pick

Vic Beasley - Top 10 draft pick

Adrian Clayborn - brought back on 1 year deal

Jack Crawford - 1 year left - plays DT/DE

Steve Means - backup

 

Same/Same

 

3rd roudners are just dudes now? Senat showed a lot of potential and now youa re going to stunt that potential growth? And after you've brought in a Top 5-10 run stopper at the NFL level in Davison...whether a 1 year deal or not....

If you draft Dexter...you are basically putting Senat on the practice squad...there wont be any reps for him...DQ has shown time and time again he wants DEs that can kick inside for pass rushing...not a 310-315lbs guy that hopefully can pass rush...

We can disagree...but I just dont see it man...

Dexter Lawrence isnt that guy for us....thats why we signed Davison after the EO Pro Day and started see EO adn Wilkins out of play for us at 14...we wont trade up to 8 for WIlkins....and BUF will take him....

I've watched 19 games of Dexter Lawrence tape...he is not a pass rusher and wont ever be one at the next level bc he doesnt have enough 1st step quickness....He will not be a guy that allows us to rush 4...and he wont be on the field in too many 3rd and long situations...nor in the hurry up on defense...

As long as you are ceonsent with him being a massive run stoppper....than I can see it...but we already ahve two guys there...so we are either going to stunt the growth of one or I assume we are aokay with a Top 15 pick rotating with two other guys to paly maybe 30% of defensive snaps? But that probably also takes Grady off the field some and in some good news maybe takes Crawford off the field more?

I'd put the likleihood of us drafting OL in the 1st round higher than DT...I think that is my point...

[RazorWing]

I would like howard or ford better in a trade back. I would do cartwheels if we got ford and lawrence. 

Ford is nasty and edgy. Thats what this line needs at tackle. I think Sambrilo is a once trick pony like schraeder.

[ATLFalcons11]

I've been pushing for 2 first round picks this year for a good while now. I'm in between it being an OL or a CB. The reasons you stated above have been why I've been back and forth about it and I can see us waiting.

But I do believe there is an option that the Bulldog you see us drafting is actually Deandre Baker with that trade up into the first round. He pushes Oliver and provides an additional year of development for either Oliver or himself for Trufant's near inevitable release next year.

Good stuff and mostly things I agree with. Some new is that I never saw Lindstrom as a RT, but I do like him there wayyyyy better than I like him at RG. I think DTs will destroy him.

[g-dawg]

11 minutes ago, Matt_The Iceman_Ryan said:

3rd roudners are just dudes now? Senat showed a lot of potential and now youa re going to stunt that potential growth? And after you've brought in a Top 5-10 run stopper at the NFL level in Davison...whether a 1 year deal or not....

If you draft Dexter...you are basically putting Senat on the practice squad...there wont be any reps for him...DQ has shown time and time again he wants DEs that can kick inside for pass rushing...not a 310-315lbs guy that hopefully can pass rush...

We can disagree...but I just dont see it man...

Dexter Lawrence isnt that guy for us....thats why we signed Davison after the EO Pro Day and started see EO adn Wilkins out of play for us at 14...we wont trade up to 8 for WIlkins....and BUF will take him....

I've watched 19 games of Dexter Lawrence tape...he is not a pass rusher and wont ever be one at the next level bc he doesnt have enough 1st step quickness....He will not be a guy that allows us to rush 4...and he wont be on the field in too many 3rd and long situations...nor in the hurry up on defense...

As long as you are ceonsent with him being a massive run stoppper....than I can see it...but we already ahve two guys there...so we are either going to stunt the growth of one or I assume we are aokay with a Top 15 pick rotating with two other guys to paly maybe 30% of defensive snaps? But that probably also takes Grady off the field some and in some good news maybe takes Crawford off the field more?

I'd put the likleihood of us drafting OL in the 1st round higher than DT...I think that is my point...

Dexter Lawrence is not my preferred Defensive Tackle.   I would take Christian Wilkins ahead of him if both were available - I made that clear in my OP.   My first preference is still moving up for Quinnen or EO if they drop into a reasonable range - although I deem them dropping to a "reasonable range" unlikely.

Senat is "just a guy".......why do you think there are 100 topics on TATF about needing an inside presence at Defensive Tackle and it's the most slotted player?

Last year the Falcons went into the draft thinking they were gonna trade up 5-10 spots for Da'Ron Payne.   When he came off the board earlier than they anticipated, they had to go to "Plan B".    I promise you Senat is not thought of in the same breath as Da'Ron Payne and that need for another penetrating defensive tackle w/ anchor didn't go away with the 3rd round selection of Senat.

I actually like the draft you put together and the players above - with the EXCEPTION of Winovich......he looks like fool's gold to me.  Sure he is a hustle player but hustle by itself won't get you home in the NFL.   I could definitely see a trade-back and take Lindstrom.

If I was running the draft and I could not get Quinnen, Oliver nor Wilkins - then I would trade back.   Would I take Lindstrom over Lawrence?   Close call.  Not sure.  Probably not.

[Summerhill]

20 minutes ago, Matt_The Iceman_Ryan said:

Lindstrom: 6'4" 308lbs 34" arms; 4.91 40, 25 BP, 30.5" VJ, 117" BJ, 7.61 3C

B. Smith: 6'6" 315lbs 32" arms; 5.22 40, 35 BP, 33.5" VJ, 113" BJ, no 3C

 

The reason why many think LIndstrom can paly Rt is for one, he did for 11 games in 2017...and the arm length and foot quickness is there....

I guess I didn't realize Lindstrom was as good an athlete as he is. Nice. 

[Smiler11]

Of the two Clemson tackles I think Dex will be higher on the Falcons board. If an opportunity to aquire Ed Oliver doesn't materialise (my hunch is Oliver is right at the top of the Falcons Board) then I could see Dex being the pick at #14. I'm not over enamored with him but he has a clear path to contributing right away in our base package and he will help our ailing run defense. I do question his value in nickel & dime packages, particularly given he was often subbed out in obvious passing situations at Clemson. 

I'll add some of my own...

#1. Falcons have a strong interest in John Cominsky (DE from Charleston). I think he'll be an obvious target on day 3 to play that strongside end role in base, previously occupied by the likes of Shelby and Tyson Jackson. 

#2. Look for the Falcons to add a punter in the 6th or 7th round. 

#3. The Falcons won't draft a Dawg.

#4. If Chase Winovich is still on the board at #45 I think the Falcons take him. Reed has maned the Leo spot in our base package pretty much since the day he arrived and him leaving in FA is arguably our biggest loss. Takk, Beasley and Clayborn (in his previous stint here) were all used almost exclusively in nickel & dime packages. Means played some base end last year (often strongside after Shelby went down) and would be a candidate to play the role this year, but if the opportunity presents itself I think the Falcons pull the trigger on Winovich.

#5. To the annoyance of most on this board, including myself, the Falcons will not draft a RB and are content with what they have.

[OilFuturesTrader19]

#1- Yes to Lawrence, no to Wilkins 

#4- YES. (I wouldn't be surprised to see Atlanta with 2 Houston players in this draft....Oliver [if it falls right] and Isiah Johnson.)

[Summerhill]

28 minutes ago, Matt_The Iceman_Ryan said:

3rd roudners are just dudes now? Senat showed a lot of potential and now youa re going to stunt that potential growth? And after you've brought in a Top 5-10 run stopper at the NFL level in Davison...whether a 1 year deal or not....

If you draft Dexter...you are basically putting Senat on the practice squad...there wont be any reps for him...DQ has shown time and time again he wants DEs that can kick inside for pass rushing...not a 310-315lbs guy that hopefully can pass rush...

We can disagree...but I just dont see it man...

I like Senat just fine but best case scenario he's an Earl Mitchell type player. That's fine for a 3rd round pick but it doesn't mean his position is on lockdown for the next decade. 

I have no idea what kind of player Lawrence will actually be, but if he maximizes his talent he's the next Dontari Poe. If the Falcons think he's like Poe and want a player like Poe, you pick him because he's a lot better than Earl Mitchell. 

[vafalconfan]

Well thought out article g-dawg..you may have a future over at SI someday. 

On the Linstrom thing I did not know he was projected as a possible RT. If true then a trade up would make sense. I also would not mind a trade back for more picks and select Lawrence. We absolutely have to stop the run this year and maybe Takk and Beasley would be more effective with the interior pocket being pushed with Lawrence and Grady... 

 

[g-dawg]

2 minutes ago, vafalconfan said:

Well thought out article g-dawg..you may have a future over at SI someday. 

On the Linstrom thing I did not know he was projected as a possible RT. If true then a trade up would make sense. I also would not mind a trade back for more picks and select Lawrence. We absolutely have to stop the run this year and maybe Takk and Beasley would be more effective with the interior pocket being pushed with Lawrence and Grady... 

 

thanks for the compliment, va.

I don't know that "Most" teams look at Lindstrom as a tackle - most probably have him as a guard - but he has played tackle at BC and can.  Has the arms, is the athlete and has the quicks to do it.

[rudy]

1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

For years, I always looked forward to Sports Illustrated's Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback - and many times if I didn't like the weekly topic, would race to the back and the "10 Things I Think I Think" - which was generally chocked full of either interesting quotes from NFL owners/GMs/Scouts/Coaches/Players or some insight gleaned from some of them - usually the last of the 10 was more general random.

So thought I would do a "Falcons Draft version" of this.  Here goes:

 

G-Dawg:   10 Things I think I think:

1. After studying this draft -for entirely too long - and looking at our team, this first pick most likely is gonna be a Defensive Tackle - most likely Christian Wilkins or Dexter Lawrence - in that order.   If Falcons select Lawrence, they trade down and do so - if they trade down and lose Lawrence, they will draft an offensive lineman in 1st round (See #5 below).
2. Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver are both on the radar but Falcons won't go higher than #6 to get either one of them.  I would lay odds of a trade-up for either of these guys at 20% - not likely.
3. Any trade-up back into the 1st round would be for an offensive lineman - not a cornerback.  The goal of this draft is to continue to build more physical/nasty  on both lines of scrimmage.
4. University of Houston's Isaiah Johnson is the most likely cornerback to be drafted by Atlanta.  Expect him to be a Day#2 selection - hopefully he falls to #79.
5. OG/OT Chris Lindstrom from Boston College is VERY HIGH on the Falcons draft board and he is the most likely trade-up target back into the 1st round if he drops towards the end of 1st round.   Falcons see him as a starting Day#1 Right Tackle.
6. If the Atlanta Falcons don't acquire Chris Lindstrom, look for them to draft Charlotte OG/OT Nate Davis - another maurading right tackle - his draft stock is higher than most think but would expect him to be available in 3rd round.
7. Defensive End/Edge Rusher is most likely pushed to a Day#3 pick.  Falcons will be looking at BIGGER guys their and go against the smaller/quicker guys like Takk/Vic.   Look for Day#3 Defensive End prospects like Charles Omenhiu, Austin Bryant, Anthony Nelson, Jonathan Ledbetter and Jamal Adams.
8. Expect the Falcons to break the streak and draft at least one Georgia Bulldog - either Lamont Gaillard(4th), Mecole Hardeman(5th), Jonathan Ledbetter(5th) or Elijah Holyfield(6th).  Simply too many good Dawgs at too many need positions for the Falcons for us not pull one of those tags off the board.
9. The Atlanta Falcons will make THREE trades in this draft.   One trade back and two trades up.  The ultimate goal is to end up with the following - two first round picks - 1st pick in first round (WILKINS or LAWRENCE) and 2nd pick in the first round (LINDSRTOM or FORD).
10.   These are my non-draft Falcons thoughts:

 A)  Falcons get a Grady Jarrett deal done before June 15th.  When Arthur Blank says "Julio and Grady will be Falcons for Life" he means it.   Last time I checked, it's Artie's team.   Jarrett will get more than everyone here thinks he should get but it will be less than AD.  My guess is it will be 5yrs, $90mm for an $18mm/yr average.

B ) Look for vast improvements in the Falcons defense as Quinn takes it over.  I heard him talking about running more stunts than what we have done in the past to free up Takk and Vic.

C )  Look for Falcons marketing team to come up with some creative way to get Falcons fans in their seats prior to kickoff.  Some type of giveaway that you only get if you get in the stadium doors 30 minutes prior to kickoff.

D) Look for Julio Jones to have his biggest TD production of his career this year.  With the emergence of Calvin Ridley and an improved running game, I expect Julio to get more unstacked coverage than in year's past - they will still slant coverage his way, but not as much.

E) Expect a better running game and more 11 personnel with two tight ends on the field.

F)  Continued emergence of Foye Oluokon as a defensive playmaker.

G)  Lingering health issues for Ricardo Allen.   Falcons brought in a lot of safeties - maybe just camp bodies but we have seen the Keanu Neal workout videos but nothing for Rico - of course Achilles is a worse injury than ACL.

H)  Expect the Falcons to really put more emphasis this year on pre-season game#3 than in the past -  the Falcons were a little too laisse faire about pre-season - with Falcons brutal schedule this year, they need to be hitting on all cylinders in Game#1.

         

Dude you got too much time on your hands  LOL  but I agree with the first 3 though if the Falcons willing to trade up I think they would only go up to #7.

The closer it gets to the draft the more I think the Falcons will give more priority to an OT ...as in they'll draft in the first 2 rounds.

[MasterBateser]

5 minutes ago, rudy said:

Dude you got too much time on your hands  LOL  but I agree with the first 3 though if the Falcons willing to trade up I think they would only go up to #7.

The closer it gets to the draft the more I think the Falcons will give more priority to an OT ...as in they'll draft in the first 2 rounds.

Please don't quote the entire OP.

[vel]

6 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

Please don't quote the entire OP.

Honestly, I'm fine with him quoting it there since it's towards the bottom of page one. I'd rather not scroll ALL the way up. But agreed that everyone shouldn't keep quoting it.