TheDirtyWordII

TDWII's Final Mock: and with the 14th Selection...

62 posts in this topic

To Review (first 13 picks): from yesterday, focus of my attention

ARI: Kyler Murray; QB – Oklahoma
SF: Nick Bosa; DE – Ohio State

<TRADE> NYJ trades the #3 selection in the 2019 NFL Draft to TB for the 5th and 39th selections in the 2019 NFL Draft

TB: Quennin Williams; DT – Alabama
OAK: Josh Allen; DE – Kentucky
NYJ: Jawaan Taylor; OT – Florida
NYG:  Ed Oliver; DT – Houston
JAX: TJ Hockenson; TE – Iowa
DET: Noah Fant; TE – Iowa
BUF: Devin White; LB – LSU
DEN: Drew Lock; QB – Missouri
CIN: Devin Bush; LB - LSU
GB: Jonah Williams; OG/OT – Alabama
MIA: Montez Sweat; DE – Mississippi State

<TRADE> ATL trades #14 pick to NYG for #17 & #95 picks.

…the New York Giants select – Daniel Jones; QB – Duke

…in order to move up 3 spots ahead of perhaps the most QB needy team in the NFL (WAS) not to mention a division rival, the Falcons gladly accept the 17th and 95th (1070) selections in the 2019 draft.  With QB’s, I think it’s not really about position availability.  It’s about getting the guy you want to build your franchise around.  So whether it’s Haskins/Jones and who is remaining from this bunch, I think the priority for NYG will be to not risk ‘losing their guy’.  And WAS at #15 presents a risk to having that happen.  For the purposes of this mock, I think they prefer Jones and the Cutcliffe lineage.

Chronologically, WAS would have to call ARI’s bluff from a ‘Josh Rosen’ compensation perspective by not making a trade prior to the draft.  Seeing Steve Keim love on Rosen seems to indicate a need/desire to pump his stock up.  But ARI will have to commit to Murray before trading Rosen – they don’t have much leverage.  And the more QB’s that are on the board, the better for getting Rosen for cheap.  As such, I don’t think WAS would make a move prior to being on the clock.  We’re starting to hear QB’s dropping in value.  OAK appears out, Haskins is being given lukewarm love.  Elway is no longer in love with Drew Lock (supposedly).  While I have DEN picking Lock @ 10, no one will know that when ARI selects Murray.

And so…IMO, the middle of the first round might be where the QB positioning/jostling occurs.  The Falcons are well-positioned to secure additional draft capital because of that and in NYG’s case, having already selected another position at #6…there likely needs to be a priority on securing the guy they want to develop and have targeted as Eli Manning’s successor – ahead of a division rival.

<TRADE> WAS trades #15 pick to ARI for Josh Rosen and #33 pick

Why does WAS do the trade?  A game of chicken can only last so long.  In the end, while Haskins is still on the board…this deal allows WAS the opportunity to get two for the price of one.  ARI gets the 1st rounder they’ve wanted in return for Rosen, even if it’s a bit bastardized.

ARI: Marquise Brown; WR – Oklahoma…Cardinals get Murray’s running mate at Oklahoma and introduce a dynamic element to the offense right off the bat.
CAR: Andre Dillard; OT – Washington State…Panthers have to protect Cam better.  Dillard’s strength is just that and he becomes the LT of the future.

With the 17th Selection in the 2019 NFL Draft…the Atlanta Falcons select Dexter Lawrence; DT – Clemson.

Imitation is the finest form of flattery.  Back in 2017, I think after watching the Falcons produce an x-factor in their backfield with Tevin Coleman emerging alongside Devonta Freeman…the Saints used a 3rd rounder on Alvin Kamara and took that multi-dimensional backfield to the next level.

And so in 2019, with the Falcons watching how the Saints have become master controllers of game tempo…the Falcons decide to invest the 17th pick in the biggest, baddest LOS controller in the draft.  While the Saints do a lot of that ‘controlling’ on offense via Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara…they for the most part closed the back door of teams being able to run against them in 2018 and plodding them into a ball control battle.  They ranked 2nd in YPC against, 2nd in rushing yards against and 4th in carries against.  Bottomline is that teams can't run the football against NO.

Yes, their pass defense was questionable at best.  But the Saints strategy was essentially to get in passing game bar fights with their opponent.  They were happy to play that game put the game in Brees’ hands.  The Falcons want to put the games in Matt Ryan’s hands…but they’ll need to control game tempo and pace better than they have the last two seasons.  In 2017, it was because the offense was sluggish…in 2018 it was because the defense was a sieve.

FAQ: A two-down run stuffer at the 17th pick?  WAY too high!!

Four Things Here…

#1…stopping the run is actually a significant weakness of this team.  Probably more fundamentally, controlling the LOS when we’re on defense is a problem.  We've invested in size/power on offense - now comes time for us to address the other side of the LOS.  Getting a player in the first round who can help on each front isn’t bad value IMO. 

#2…I’ve said it in previous threads, but I don’t think pass rush skills is the sole determinant on whether a DT stays on the field in passing situations.  I think stamina is just as big a factor, if not more.  Vince Wilfork was never a pass rush threat, but in his prime, he rarely left the field – Haloti Ngata as well.  Lawrence seems to have such stamina - Play Capacity is 13 according to Clemson DL Coach...so as it relates to Lawrence v other behemoth type tackles, if I’m reading between the lines, those guys will get taken off as much to save their wind and because after 5 plays, they’re gassed.  Coaches seem to be vouching for Lawrence’s ability to stay on the field.  Will he stay on the field in all situations in 2019...perhaps not, but the Falcons have been known to ease first rounders in as well.

#3…I kept coming back to this.  6’4 342.  Close to 35-inch arms.  10+ inch hands.  I’m going to give him a sub 5.0 40 as he pulled up at the combine and 36 bench presses @ 225.  You just don’t see this come around too often.

#4…We all read the same stuff.  But there are whispers surfaced by Matt Miller that NFL types are much higher on Lawrence than NFL Media types.  I read where a DL coach said Lawrence was higher on his teams board than Wilkins/Ferrell.  Again, draft season can be silly season particularly when it comes to sound bites, but as to point #3…innate physicality and trait like above get coaches/scouts attention.  Ask yourself this question.  Was Vita Vea worth the 12th pick in 2018?  Well his final 8 games once he got healthy his rookie year saw him produce.

327 defensive snaps
27 tackles
3 sacks
2 TFL’s

…and he really didn’t start making an impact until Game 10.  But once he did, he was a force.  And he was on the field for at least 70% of the Bucs defensive snaps.  To think that Lawrence could only have an impact in a one-dimensional role I think is a lazy take.  if he's ready, he'll play more.  

FAQ: Even if Oliver/Wilkins are on the board?

I think Oliver being on the board @ 14 is a March storyline/fairytale (really past the #8-10 pick at this point).  I DON’T want to trade up for sure though – at least not here.  And as I’ve stated in previous threads, I think there are some threads of self-importance/diva type traits with Oliver that I question would fit in a locker room that is seemingly built on a low-maintenance foundation. 

And as much as I also love Wilkins, the player and the kid…every draft produces a Christian Wilkins type talent.  Lawrence is rare.

With 10 picks (in this scenario now), I have to think TD would be moving in and around the draft - likely in an aggressive/targeting mode.  As an FYI, I don’t like to give the Falcons more picks than they start with (9) in my mocks…so you can put 2 and 2 together.

MIN: Christian Wilkins; DT – Clemson…Slots right next to Linval Joseph as an interior force.  MIN realizes that even with Cousins, the key to winning is defense.
TEN: N’Keal Harry; WR – Arizona State…In a make-or-break year for Mariota, TEN bolsters WR again.  Coupled with Corey Davis & Adam Humphries...no excuses.
PIT: Greedy Williams; CB – LSU…PIT gets a potential CB1 they covet and someone for Haden to mentor.

<TRADE> SEA trades the 21st selection in the 2019 NFL Draft and their 2020 4th rounder to CIN for the #42 & #72 selections in the 2019 NFL Draft and their 2020 3rd round selection.

Why does SEA do the trade?  Simple, with but 4 picks in the 2019 draft, they now have 3 Day 2 picks and start off 2020 with improved pick positioning.

CIN: Dwayne Haskins; QB – Ohio State…Haskins fall is halted and he stays in Ohio.  It's rare for CIN to trade up, but at certain points of this draft-season, Haskins was seen as a Top 6 pick.

<TRADE> The Atlanta Falcons trade the 45th, 79thselections in the 2019 NFL Draft and their 2020 2nd round selection to the Baltimore Ravens for the 23rd selection in the 2019 NFL Draft and their 2020 3rd round selection.

Why does BAL do the trade?  Simply put, BAL covets 2nd round picks more than they covet 1st rounders and we’d be offering two of them.  They take advantage of the comp picks process better than any team as they are fine with the 4 year contract length so they can keep churning young players.

With the 23rd Selection in the 2019 NFL Draft…the Atlanta Falcons select Cody Ford; RT – Oklahoma

It's a decently steep price to pay as while the 2019 DVC delta is 115 points in the Falcons favor, the price of the 2020 2/3 pick delta for similarly projected teams record wise in 2019 can be argued to make up for that signficantly.  Can Ford come in and compete for the starting nod right off the bat?  Sure…but the Falcons can be patient if need be given the contract they gave Sambrailo.  As the Falcons remade their OL with the signings of Brown/Carpenter, Ford fits this ‘revised’ mold of the mobile mauler and brings that nasty attitude with him that it seems as if the Falcons are coveting now.

Would Ford be available at #23?

He certainly could go earlier.  I’d say maybe a bit better than 50/50 at this point that he’s available here.  But the pick progression thru 22 picks and reasoning going along with it up until now isn’t preposterous.

Is Ford an instant starter?

Ford steps in to compete immediately at RT, but the Falcons feel comfortable enough not pushing him into a starting role on April 27.  Ford can use the remaining part of the off-season program to ready himself for a stiff competition in August.  But between Brown/Carpenter/Ford, the Falcons complete a massive makeover of their OL.

Finishing out Round 1

OAK: Rashan Gary; DE/DT – Michigan…Gary’s curious draft season (and last 12 months) comes to a conclusion far down the draft board and Gruden loves the physical traits and the versatility.
PHI: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson; FS…Rodney McLeod's time with Eagles is drawing to a close and PHI's pass defense was abhorrent in 2018.

<TRADE> IND trades the #26 selection in the 2019 NFL Draft to New England for the 32nd and 97th selections in the 2019 NFL Draft.

NE: D.K. Metcalf; WRMississippi…Look at the WR depth chart behind Edelman.  With Gronk gone - ASJ is their TE1.  This is vital.
OAK: Byron Murphy; CB – Washington…a defensive 1st round results in a 3rd pick on that side of the ball.  And OAK needed to invest in this side of the ball.
LAC: Kaleb McGary; OT – Washington…locks down right side of the OL for Rivers & Co.
KC: Garrett Bradbury; C – NC State…fills the void left by the departure of Mitch Morse.
GB: Deebo Samuel; WR – South Carolina…Rodgers gets a vital and dynamic SWR target to pepper with Cobb having moved on.
LAR: Chris Lindstrom; OG/OT – Boston College…Having lost Saffold to FA, they need to ensure offensive continuity.
IND: Brian Burns; DE – Florida State…Generating pressure has been a theme of the Colts off-season and can be mentored by off-season acquisition - Justin Houston.

REDSHIRT ROW - The theme of the 2019 Falcons draft moving forward

The Falcons draft at this juncture will have to focus on preparing for the jettisoning of some pretty familiar and productive players post 2019.  With the Falcons having put together a relatively strong roster, top-to-bottom…it’s going to require them to turn down re-signing opportunities as well as infuse certain positions with youthful options; developmental prospects that will redshirt in 2019 for the most part either on gameday inactive list or Special Teams with an eye towards hoping they blossom in 2020.

Young veterans like Deion Jones, Keanu Neal will look at contracts signed by CJ Mosely and Landon Collins and set their market value.  Calvin Ridley, Takk McKinley, Damonte Kazee while not up for contract re-negotiations for at least two years have already positioned themselves for hefty pay days, or will be in a position to do so

So the need to start to look at Day 2 & 3 of the draft differently needs to become part of the Falcons MO.

3:95 – Mecole Hardman; WR – Georgia

Mohamed Sanu has been a very solid player for the Falcons.  But the Falcons will be able to cut him in 2020 for a cap savings of $6.5M.  Thus, the Falcons have to start giving serious thought to the pass catchers behind Julio/Ridley Ryan will have to throw to in 2020 and beyond.  Hardman brings speed, speed and more speed to the Falcons in the slot (eventually).  In 2019, he can also compete for return duties and area the Falcons have fallen off in the last two years, particulalry in the punt return game.

Why Hardman over CB?  Ultimately, I think if things break right for the Falcons (and I think there is a decent chance they do)…Trufant/Oliver could form a formidable outside CB tandem.  And while the Falcons could save close to $5M next off-season if they cut Trufant, I think in this case…there is an opportunity to re-structure him if need be to provide similar cap savings – assuming he bounces back from an off year.

4:117 – Foster Moreau; TE – LSU

IMO, the Falcons need to start preparing for a post Austin Hooper future.  If we’re looking at contracts being handed out to TE’s the last two seasons (Trey Burton and Tyler Kroft come to mind)…I don’t think it’s unreasonable for Hooper to be thinking a $10M AAV.  And I simply don’t think the Falcons can really consider making that investment when they have a clear #2 WR now in Ridley.  And for the Falcons, I think what they want out of the TE position will shift.  Solid blocking – outlet receiver would seem to be the model.  Moreau profiles as that and likely has a 2019 as a gameday inactive most Sundays unless he progresses quickly.

<TRADE> ATL trades the 152nd and 172nd selections (53.2) in the 2019 NFL Draft to TEN for the 121st selection (52) in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Why does TEN make the trade?  With only 3 picks remaining, the opportunity to secure two 5th rounders at the cost of a 4th is sensible for a roster that still needs an infusion of prospect quantity as much as quality.

4:121 – John Cominsky; DE – Charleston (WV)

Cominsky is certainly a developmental prospect, but has some raw tools and size/speed combo to work with.  Vic Beasley and Jack Crawford look like they are in their final year as Falcons (although Crawford is a candidate for the 1-year contract in 2020) and so addressing the long term needs at this position is probably something TD/DQ would like to accomplish.

4:137 – Ryquell Armstead; RB - Temple

What attracted me to Armstead was the call out of his ‘inside zone’ abilities.  That and his hard-nosed style seemed to be a good fit in specified rotational role for the Falcons in 2019.  Count me as unconvinced that a player (Kenjon Barber) who is entering his 7th NFL season with but 96 career carries will be given anything more than significant pre-season carries.  Which leaves Freeman and Ito Smith to carry a LARGE load.  In recognizing we signed not one, but two road graders in free agency, I think you need to ensure that if one of your RB’s goes down (which has happened in each of the last two seasons)…you’re not stuck.  What he turns into beyond 2019 is up for debate, but Falcons can save $3.5M against the 2020 cap if they move on from Freeman.  If he can’t stay healthy…that might be in play.

6:186 – Jordan Ta’amu; QB - Mississippi

Yes, I know.  This pick will be hated.  But…we need to get out from under the Matt Schaub salary cap drain.  And while Schaub’s cap number is quite palatable for 2019, it jumps to $2.375M in 2020.  And with Ryan’s cap number now a larger percentage of the salary cap with his new deal, the Falcons need to cover themselves with a real investment in a young projectable back-up that can be retained at minimal cost.  The Falcons have shown interest in Ta’amu and his stock seems to have risen during the draft process. 

Of the ‘down the line’ QB’s the Falcons have done some study on (others include Easton Stick/Brett Rypien)…I think Ta’amu has the most upside.  In addition, his flaws seem to be coachable.  From a ‘tools’ perspective, I think he’s the most talented of the bunch in this range of the draft.

7:221 – Tyler Newsome; P – Notre Dame

If I didn’t get the message across about cap management in 2020/Beyond – drafting a punter should do the trick.  At the very least, the Falcons need to bring in some competition for Bosher.  Regardless though, Bosher is in the final year of his contract.  To the degree Bosher would get another contract extension (the deal he signed in 2014 was 5 year, $12.65M), the overall theme of this draft past Round 1 has been to find cap savings through better financial efficiency mapped to performance.  And with Bosher in the $2-2.5M cap hit neighborhood.

What Have We Accomplished

Two ‘Year 1 Starters’ – Yes, the Falcons have Sambrailo and recently signed John Wetzel.  Yes, the Falcons brought in Davison and have Senat.  But Lawrence and Ford dwarf their competition from a talent/ceiling perspective.  The question is how quickly can both make the transition.  What the Falcons have done with the signings of Davison and Sambrailo is ensure veteran presence and competence at critical positions…positions where they didn’t really have depth.  As it relates to Davison, I think he was brought in for his ST contribution (111 snaps in 2018 v Senat - 19) as well, but the lack of long-term commitment to him (or even that significant a financial investment in him) speaks to his disposability at this point.

Physicality – with the signings of Brown/Carpenter and the drafting of Lawrence/Ford along with the developmental selection of Cominsky, the Falcons signal a philosophical switch of sorts away from the sinewy, fleet athletic profile to a more blunt force, battle on the LOS profile.

Drafting For ‘Cap Need’ – We’ve referred to this a bunch the last couple of years.  But the bill is going to be coming due over the next 2-3 years at least and it's really started now.  So tough decisions need to be made.  Planning for those tough decisions draft-wise now has to be a part of the outlook.  Consider:

Current SWR –   Sanu - $7.9M 2020 cap hit (Hardman)
Current QB2 –    Schaub - $2.375M 2020 cap hit (Ta’amu)
Current TE1 –     Hooper 2020 UFA (Moreau)
Current RT –       Sambrailo $5.75M 2020 cap hit (Ford)
Current P –         Bosher 2020 UFA – 2019 cap hit of $2.545M (Newsome)

Being able to cultivate cheaper depth is going to be critical for the Falcons over the duration of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones contracts since we’re talking about two of the highest paid players at their respective positions (the assumption being Julio gets done this off-season) in the NFL.  If you add Grady Jarrett to the mix…it’s possible that you have 3 players accounting for 30%+ of future years salary caps.

Open Concerns

CB – No doubt we’re thin on the outside.  We will need to hope that Oliver is ready and that both him and Trufant stay healthy - not to mention that Oliver has made good use of his own redshirt year .  A bit treacherous, but you can’t solve every problem.  The CB's that the Falcons have been linked to (Layne, Ya-Sin, Williams, Baker, Johnson)...all seem like Top 64 picks at this juncture.  We can't assume this is a complete list.  

But if you think about where the Falcons are drafting…and the proposed trade to secure a RT that protects Ryan for the remainder of his career…ultimately CB simply doesn’t match-up with how the draft works out.  I suspect securing a young stud will be a priority in 2020.

RB – Armstead is an ‘OK’ developmental guy.  But his skillset is limited – think Justin Griffith type of player.  His passing game & protection chops are below par at this point.  If he can develop those…he has a future here.  Right now, he brings a physicality to the backfield that I think with Freeman’s injury issues should be termed as tenuous.  If Freeman can’t stay healthy, we’ll lose a lot of offensive diversity and likely productivity.  But we won’t be stuck with Ito Smith as a bellcow.  But Armstead qualifies more as an insurance policy, very situational player for 2019.

Summary

In this scenario, the Falcons start with 9 picks, and make 8.  In those picks, they come up

1:17 - One Day 1 starter (Lawrence) 
1:24 - One Year 1 starter (Ford)
3:95 - A 2020 SWR starter (Hardman)
4:117 - A TE2 2020 projection (Moreau)
4:121 - A toolsy SDE project (Cominsky)
4:137 - RB depth/competition (Armstead)
6:186 - A QB2 2020 projection (Ta’amu)
7:221 – A cheap punter if he can beat out Bosher (Newsome)

Ultimately, the Falcons past the first two picks will be in a position to draft for depth, to draft developmentally.  Offensively/defensively…past Round 1, I don’t think the Falcons have a position on the starting 22 where there would be a need for 500+ snaps to be consumed in 2019.

FIRE AWAY!

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I like the moves.  One thing to consider.  NE is targeting either Jones or Grier.  They need to move up 10 spots to get either in their respective round.  Do we take their 32nd, both their 2nd’s and a 3rd next year if Jones is their guy?

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8 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

I like the moves.  One thing to consider.  NE is targeting either Grier or Jacobs.  They need to move up 10 spots to get either.  Do we take their 32nd, both their 2nd’s and a 3rd next year?

Grier will 100% be available at #32 - probably available at #64.

Jacobs - I would lay odds at 50/50 he would be available - I don't see any RB but him having a shot at 1st round and there are some questions about Jacobs - I love his talent but he isn't w/o question.

egoprime II likes this

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3 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I think we have to take a DB somewhere. Tru is gone next year to my thinking. 

We not only have to take a CB - we WILL take a CB.  By the end of Day#2 of the draft, the Falcons will have a new corner.

All one has to do is look at the exit of Alford/Poole and no believable replacement on the roster and no significant free agents - and with potential of Trufant being a cap casualty in 2020.

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1 minute ago, g-dawg said:

We not only have to take a CB - we WILL take a CB.  By the end of Day#2 of the draft, the Falcons will have a new corner.

All one has to do is look at the exit of Alford/Poole and no believable replacement on the roster and no significant free agents - and with potential of Trufant being a cap casualty in 2020.

You don’t consider Kazee a plausible replacement for Poole?

egoprime II likes this

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I still think we stay at 14 and pick Greedy or Baker.  Probably Greedy as DQ loves him some LSU players.

I really want Cody Ford, too, so I think we might make some trades to maneuver back into the 1st to get him if he’s still there around 20+.

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

You don’t consider Kazee a plausible replacement for Poole?

That’s fine but Kazee’s also backs up Rico(Achilles) and Neal(ACL).  Unless you have a clone machine for Kazee that ain’t gonna work.

We don’t have any numbers AT ALL!!!

We don’t even know if Oliver is ready - he certainly needs competition for the starting spot.

I would almost GUARANTEE you we are taking a Corner with one of first three picks - probably 2nd rounder.   We have kicked tires on all of them.

PokerSteve, Vandy and me4falcons like this

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You know I could actually see this happening. I'm not the biggest Lawrence fan, but I get the appeal and the reasoning behind adding him. Him and Ford, you get the two biggest gentleman's in this draft on your lines. Yea, you miss out on CB depth, but overall this would be one I could live with and makes a ton of sense long term.

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6 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

That’s fine but Kazee’s also backs up Rico(Achilles) and Neal(ACL).  Unless you have a clone machine for Kazee that ain’t gonna work.

We don’t have any numbers AT ALL!!!

We don’t even know if Oliver is ready - he certainly needs competition for the starting spot.

I would almost GUARANTEE you we are taking a Corner with one of first three picks - probably 2nd rounder.   We have kicked tires on all of them.

Certainly agree that we've done our homework on ones that would be available in the #45 range.  Obviously my scenario removes that possibility.

But if Oliver was a 2nd round choice in 2018...what makes us think a 2nd rounder this year steps in and is better?  For me...most pundits this time last year said Oliver would benefit from a 'redshirt' type year.  He's had that...I'd have to think that if we did go CB early, it would be a significant indictment on how the Falcons view Oliver.  

...and while Trufant had more WTF moments from him than we're used to seeing, I still think fundamentally, he's a pretty good CB and the cap savings we get from releasing him in 2020 ($4.95M).  His new money only kicked in last year I believe.

 

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3 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Certainly agree that we've done our homework on ones that would be available in the #45 range.  Obviously my scenario removes that possibility.

But if Oliver was a 2nd round choice in 2018...what makes us think a 2nd rounder this year steps in and is better?  For me...most pundits this time last year said Oliver would benefit from a 'redshirt' type year.  He's had that...I'd have to think that if we did go CB early, it would be a significant indictment on how the Falcons view Oliver.  

...and while Trufant had more WTF moments from him than we're used to seeing, I still think fundamentally, he's a pretty good CB and the cap savings we get from releasing him in 2020 ($4.95M).  His new money only kicked in last year I believe.

 

All you have to do is look at Grady, Debo and Neal up for extensions in 2020 to know that his head is likely to roll in 2020.   The drafted corner may and probably will play on rotational basis in 2019.  Doesn't matter.   We need a CB to challenge Oliver and said CB could be a presumptive starter in 2020 along w/ Isaiah Oliver if Trufant pushed out the door - which is, at worst, a 50/50 proposition.   Somebody is going - Mack or Tru.

Look, I would love to get Dexter and Cody - but we just aren't going to do it and sacrifice taking a corner this year.  It just won't happen - and even if it does, we would be drafting a bunch of developmental corners in 4th and 5th rounds - more than one.

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Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the draft went like this but with a corner instead of WR in the 3rd.

I don't think they'll take a cap hit next year need over an actual playtime this year need.

Think we'd see a tall WR later in this version.

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49 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

Grier will 100% be available at #32 - probably available at #64.

Jacobs - I would lay odds at 50/50 he would be available - I don't see any RB but him having a shot at 1st round and there are some questions about Jacobs - I love his talent but he isn't w/o question.

Giants are likely taking Jones.  Pats need to slide ahead of #17 to take him.  #14 seems logical

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Just now, Falconsin2012 said:

Giants are likely taking Jones.  Pats need to slide ahead of #17 to take him.  #14 seems logical

yeah but you said "Grier" - not Jones.

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Just now, g-dawg said:

yeah but you said "Grier" - not Jones.

I meant Jones, not Jacobs.  Patriots are also looking at Grier.  They’d have to move up a bit in RD 2 for him.  

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We drafted a WR in the 1st round last year with Julio and Sanu as starters and decent depth of Hardy and Hall, letting Gabriel, Robinson, and Weems walk.

We have what... Wreh-Wilson and Taveze Calhoun as our CB depth right now?

Kazee is our NCB/Star and FS/SS backup.  He is not a outside CB depth.

There is ZERO doubt we will be drafting at the very least one high level CB this year, and then probably another late rounder.

Just like with Ridley, don't be surprised if it's in the 1st round.

vel likes this

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Thanks for the read but not really a fan of this draft or giving up our 2nd round pick next year. As you mentioned CB is basically the only position we didn't address so far this free agency and you helped us zero in a position where we need 1-2 extra. I'd grab Burns in your scenario and look for a couple of additional 2nd round picks instead where we can grab prospects like OT Howard and CB Bunting.

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2 down run stoppers are a thing of the past in the NFL. Run stoppers don't see the field that often. 1 down run stoppers would be more accurate.

That said I do think Lawrence will come under consideration I just hope he can stay on the field in nickel/dime packages (approx. 70% of our snaps) - I have my doubts seeing as he came out a lot in those situations in college.

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47 minutes ago, Beef said:

We drafted a WR in the 1st round last year with Julio and Sanu as starters and decent depth of Hardy and Hall, letting Gabriel, Robinson, and Weems walk.

We have what... Wreh-Wilson and Taveze Calhoun as our CB depth right now?

Kazee is our NCB/Star and FS/SS backup.  He is not a outside CB depth.

There is ZERO doubt we will be drafting at the very least one high level CB this year, and then probably another late rounder.

Just like with Ridley, don't be surprised if it's in the 1st round.

Counterpoints:

1) The Falcons are built around Matt Ryan.  So ensuring he has guys to throw to is an organizational priority.

2) Calling Hardy/Hall ‘decent depth’ is a statement I disagree strongly with.

3) Expectation wise, Ridley ‘fell’ to our draft slot.  There seems to be some degree of consensus that there is no CB worth drafting at #14.  Certainly a trade down works in real life, like it works here...but CB at #14 would be a fairly large matzah ball IMO.

4) Outside CB’s generally don’t come off the field.  So one highly drafted player in either 2018 or 2019 is riding pine.

 

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1 hour ago, takeitdown said:

Wouldn't be terribly surprised if the draft went like this but with a corner instead of WR in the 3rd.

I don't think they'll take a cap hit next year need over an actual playtime this year need.

Think we'd see a tall WR later in this version.

If Oliver starts...where’s the PT for this CB?

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Posted (edited)

6 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Counterpoints:

1) The Falcons are built around Matt Ryan.  So ensuring he has guys to throw to is an organizational priority.

2) Calling Hardy/Hall ‘decent depth’ is a statement I disagree strongly with.

3) Expectation wise, Ridley ‘fell’ to our draft slot.  There seems to be some degree of consensus that there is no CB worth drafting at #14.  Certainly a trade down works in real life, like it works here...but CB at #14 would be a fairly large matzah ball IMO.

4) Outside CB’s generally don’t come off the field.  So one highly drafted player in either 2018 or 2019 is riding pine.

 

I think this is why the 2nd part of your 1st round scenario is more viable.

We trade BACK from 14 and pick up another 1st or 2nd round pick, then make a selection around 18-22 on a CB or OL(Ford?), and then somewhere around 23-30 make another selection on a CB/OL (whichever we didn't get first).

I'd be doing backflips if we were to come away with Cody Ford and Greedy Williams on day #1.  And I think it's not only plausible for something similar to that happen, but more likely than moving up or simply staying put and reaching for a DT.

Edited by Beef

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1 hour ago, g-dawg said:

All you have to do is look at Grady, Debo and Neal up for extensions in 2020 to know that his head is likely to roll in 2020.   The drafted corner may and probably will play on rotational basis in 2019.  Doesn't matter.   We need a CB to challenge Oliver and said CB could be a presumptive starter in 2020 along w/ Isaiah Oliver if Trufant pushed out the door - which is, at worst, a 50/50 proposition.   Somebody is going - Mack or Tru.

Look, I would love to get Dexter and Cody - but we just aren't going to do it and sacrifice taking a corner this year.  It just won't happen - and even if it does, we would be drafting a bunch of developmental corners in 4th and 5th rounds - more than one.

I’m not sure about either Mack/Trufant being gone in 2020.  I think a re-structure is on the table for one/both.  I don’t see either being run of the mill at this point.  Trufant is still 28 (29 on 9/10).

The cap savings on Trufant in 2020 would only be $1.2M than if we cut Sambrailo.  Considering the performance and talent delta between the two, I’d think Ford/Trufant > Sambrailo/(insert 2019 CB of choice) is worth the cap spend.

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5 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

If Oliver starts...where’s the PT for this CB?

We spend 60-70% of our snaps in nickel with 3 CB's on the field.

How did Oliver get 241 snaps last year with Alford, Trufant, Poole, and Kazee in front of him?

Poole and Alford are gone.  There are going to be plenty of snaps available.

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15 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

If Oliver starts...where’s the PT for this CB?

Well, a couple of things.  Oliver, along with Ty are probably our two biggest question marks on whether or not we have a viable player at an important position.  So having insurance would be well worthwhile.

Even if Olive starts, we have 2 injured safeties and don't know how Kazee will fare at CB.  So it's critical we have one more CB who "can play."  He'd get 30% of snaps if everyone is healthy all year and plays to full potential.  He'd get much more if anyone goes down in the secondary for any period of time or struggles, which is pretty much a given with injured players coming back, untested players being relied on, and guys switching positions.

Believe me, I don't want to need to draft a corner.  It frankly irritates me this year.  I could create a much better draft without it.  I just think they've put themselves in a place where it's a necessity.  And that's before you even get into training someone for a year before expecting them to potentially replace tru. 

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9 minutes ago, Beef said:

We spend 60-70% of our snaps in nickel with 3 CB's on the field.

How did Oliver get 241 snaps last year with Alford, Trufant, Poole, and Kazee in front of him?

Poole and Alford are gone.  There are going to be plenty of snaps available.

Trufant/Oliver/Kazee...wouldn’t those guys eat up most of those snaps assuming full health?

As for Oliver’s 2018 snaps, 63 came in Week 3 when we played a lot of dime against Brees.  69 came in one game when Alford was out (week 9).  In the final 4 games (when the Falcons were out of playoff contention), Oliver played 79 when they started to sub him in for Alford to give him game experience and see what they had.

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