Tim Mazetti

Tony Pauline: Falcons eyeing DT, CB, or trade down in first round

131 posts in this topic

10 hours ago, Cheap Talk said:

I read it to mean a CB would only come into play if they traded back into the 1st round. 

Trade with Raiders: Their two lower 1st rounders for #14, and The Falcons 2nd rounder.

That's NT Lawrence and a CB, or OT.

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I said it 1 time and I say it again we take a LB or CB at 14. I am sorry but both CB Baker and Williams are better than the 2 we have now. And there are 2 stud LBs. I will take ether 1 and we hit some folks in the mouth. I want to trade back in RD 2. We need a RB also.

Edited by JJC28

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5 hours ago, Maltese Falcon said:

No way.  No way at all.  Pauline is as good as gold, but this is the year that the FO use him like a decoy.  Their jobs are on the line THIS YEAR.  Arthur is not planning for 2020.  Win now.  No way we are drafting CB insurance in 2020 for Tru.  Complete and total BS.  It is OL or DL.  Nothing else.  

They're planting the seeds during "Liars Week" for Oliver or another DL, or Taylor or another OL, to drop.  

And one thing's for sure - Whomever we draft will not be a project - They will be a sure fire day 1 starter.  The FO knows that if Matt Ryan gets killed again in 2019 and they drafted CB depth in the first round, heads will roll.

I think you may be in for a shock, Tru needs to be replaced, I thought that was evident to everybody... that's a fan this team. We will draft a CB to fill his place in time.. Not sure how long it will take, but unless Tru picks his game up this year in a big way.. he'll be gone by next year.

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3 hours ago, R_The_Great said:

Yeah Trufant has been playing great as of late.  Even Alford has been out playing him the past 3 years

I can't see that.. I really don't think Tru will be here when we play our first game... He's done IMO. That's as nice as I can say it.. And if we exspect to do anything this year..

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On 4/14/2019 at 0:09 AM, Draftnut57 said:

I can't see that.. I really don't think Tru will be here when we play our first game... He's done IMO. That's as nice as I can say it.. And if we exspect to do anything this year..

Earliest POSSIBLE that Tru can be cut is post-6/1 NEXT year:

POST-6/1 RELEASE

2020 Dead Cap: $4,400,000

2021 Dead Cap: $5,800,000

2020 Cap Savings: $10,750,000

^That still has a sizeable 2021 Dead Cap; more than our current total Dead Cap as a team as of this post. Think about that.

So, he may even be here through 2020 without a restructure. However, he's likely gone in 2021 at the latest and by his age 30 season. That was the built in cut and Falcons signed him believing he'd come back from the pectoral injury and keep his trajectory/consistency.

If he carries over how he finished the last month of 2018, he'll be fine for us. Fix the DL and get insurance for boundary corner for both Tru and IO. We need depth there as it is.

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On 4/13/2019 at 10:24 AM, g-dawg said:

There are too many good 2nd rd corners and Murphy/Baker/Greedy haven’t separated themselves enough for me to take a Corner in 1st rd - even with a Trade Down.  If we are locked into those two positions- DT/CB and we aren’t interested in Wilkins - then we should trade down about 10 spots, pick up draft capital and take either Jeffrey Simmons or Dexter Lawrence.

 I think I would rather take Simmons in that scenario even though he is hurt - he’s a Top 10 talent and if we can get him plus a 2nd rd pick or a 3rd plus something else then like a 4th or 3rd in 2020, then do it.   Simmons would start 2019 on PUP and then probably ready by Week 9.  You don’t draft players for the first 8 games of rookie season - team building is a process not a microwave oven.

It would be very unfalcon like to trade back and select an injured player like Simmons who some had given a top 5 grade, but i would applaud that move. Some smart team will take Simmons and by the end of 2019 will have a Fletcher Cox type player for the next 7-8 years..(and also picking up draft capital) 

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On 4/13/2019 at 7:05 PM, Osiruz said:

I haven't seen greedy run away from tackles, but the move is also cost effective. Tru isn't worth what he is getting paid, and his hands are made of stone.

Sorry, it's not. Trufant's 2019 salary became fully guaranteed  3rd day of the league year [ March 15]. Cost 14 mil of dead money to release him even as a  Jun 1 cut, 24 mil if just a straight cut.

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7 minutes ago, falconidae said:

Sorry, it's not. Trufant's 2019 salary became fully guaranteed  3rd day of the league year [ March 15]. Cost 14 mil of dead money to release him even as a  Jun 1 cut, 24 mil if just a straight cut.

I was talking about in the future, Tru will become expendable in 2021.

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3 minutes ago, Osiruz said:

I was talking about in the future, Tru will become expendable in 2021.

OK, didn't see any dates you mentioned, and also wasn't just for you.

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53 minutes ago, falconidae said:

OK, didn't see any dates you mentioned, and also wasn't just for you.

We need to cut him sooner or later, he is not a scheme fit and is a liability. 

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4 minutes ago, Osiruz said:

We need to cut him sooner or later, he is not a scheme fit and is a liability. 

Yeah, I'm sure he's gone next year, just not this one.

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It’s either Offensive/Defensive lineman or bust with the first pick. Greedy Williams may fall but I don’t know if he’s worth that high of a pick.

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I think this is the first time I've seen someone who would know say that TD might trade down. I hope it's because of  TD actually planning to trade down if the right player  isn't there at 14.

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On 4/13/2019 at 9:02 AM, Tim Mazetti said:

Per the super-plugged-in reporter, Thomas Dimitroff now knows he can trade down in the draft.

By Matthew Chambers Apr 11, 2019, 7:18pm EDT
 

We have spent the last few weeks at the Falcoholic trying to figure out how far up the Falcons will need to trade to land Ed Oliver. We may be on the wrong trail entirely with Thomas Dimitroff rumored to do what he’s never done before: trade down in the first round.

Tony Pauline, the long-time draft analyst and first reporter linking the Falcons to Keanu Neal back in 2016, and reported the Falcons were discussing trading up with the Seahawks in 2017 before trading up with the Seahawks in 2017, has more Falcons news.

And it’s huge, per The Draft Analysts podcast with Pauline and Chris Tripodi.

I’m told that they really want to take a cornerback with the 14th pick but they realize the better value will be at defensive tackle. And that’s the way I expect them to go if they can’t trade down.

Pauline, who linked the Falcons heavily to Da’Ron Payne last season, suggests they still are looking for a tackle that can help win in the trenches. When Payne was drafted, the Falcons decided against drafting for need (Taven Bryan) and went with better value in Calvin Ridley.

Pauline mentions Greedy Williams, Ed Oliver, Christian Wilkins, and Dexter Lawrence as potential fits but does not state the Falcons are actually interested in any of those players. Pauline believed Lawrence could be a Payne-type of big body in the middle and he has received a lot of positive attention this offseason.

There was no mention of a trade up, a defensive end, or offensive lineman. The Falcons could certainly use depth at corner, but a starter only makes sense if they plan to move on from Desmond Trufant’s salary after 2019. He’d save the team $10.75 million if designated as a post-June 1st cut.

Quinn recently identified his top three draft needs as DB, DE, and DT. Pauline’s report is consistent with that statement but provides some additional information on the team’s plans. It is possible the staff expects to miss out on top defensive end prospects by 14 or they like later round players.

If the Falcons succeed in trading down, they will almost certainly keep trading. They currently hold 9 draft picks which is already too many to realistically fit on their 53-man roster.

 

https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2019/4/11/18307006/tony-pauline-falcons-eyeing-dt-cb-or-trade-down-nfl-draft-ed-oliver-greedy-williams

wow, when you actually LISTEN to the podcast, it makes you think even more.   I agree that Tony Pauline is very plugged in.   The things he mentions about Falcons and 2018 draft lets you know how he is really is in tune w/ the Falcons - it was fairly well known that DaRon Payne was likely the guy the Falcons had their eye on last year.......as Pauline stated in this podcast:

"When Payne came off the board, most thought they would just go to the next defensive tackle on the board but instead they went to a higher rated player on their board - Calvin Ridley."

"I'm told that they would take a look at Greedy Williams - I have a sneaking suspicion that Dexter Lawrence will be part of the equation.   Much like DaRon Payne BUT DEXTER LAWRENCE IS MORE ATHLETIC!

So to summarize again and accompanied by my wild-azzed speculation - I know this has been done already in the thread but bare w/ me:

  1. Falcons would like to take a corner but realize the value likely to be a DTackle
  2. Many scouts/GMs higher on Dexter Lawrence than some of the other highly rated DTackles
  3. Dexter Lawrence > Da'Ron Payne because he is more athletic than Payne
  4. Falcons really wanted Da'Ron Payne last year
  5. Pauline said Falcons haven't been connected to Payne but I believe they have
  6. Not buying that Tyeler Davison(1yr contract) affects what the Falcons do at DT position
  7. I realize that Davison/Senat are considered more NT types as well as Lawrence but think we would all agree that Senat is a back-up and Davison may not be on the team in 2020.   If the Falcons loved them some Payne last year and NFL consensus is that Lawrence is better - then wouldn't it follow that Falcons would be very interested in Lawrence?
  8. To take Greedy Williams in 1st round or Sean Bunting in 2nd round tells me that if this is done, that is very well could be Trufant's last year.   
  9. Trufant Contract:  Looking at SportsTrac, this year/2019 Tru's salary is  $9.75mm but the dead cap is over $24mm.   In 2020, Tru's dead cap is $10.25mm and his salary is $10.75mm, so while cutting Tru in 2020 doesn't save that much money against the cap - it does save 1/2 million and if he continues to play below expectations, the Falcons very well could move on from him.  No advantage to cutting Tru this year - and, even w/ a corner that pans out, we need Tru in 2019 for sure.

 

From Pauline, hinting around the edges it seems probably the following:

  1.  Falcons first preference might be to trade down and take Greedy Williams
  2. If Falcons cannot trade down, might stick at #14 and may rate Lawrence > Wilkins / injured Simmons and take Lawrence at #14.
  3. if we take Lawrence at #14 - our next pick will be the higher on our board of CB-Sean Bunting or OT-Tytus Howard.

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15 minutes ago, g-dawg said:

From Pauline, hinting around the edges it seems probably the following:

  1.  Falcons first preference might be to trade down and take Greedy Williams
  2. If Falcons cannot trade down, might stick at #14 and may rate Lawrence > Wilkins / injured Simmons and take Lawrence at #14.
  3. if we take Lawrence at #14 - our next pick will be the higher on our board of CB-Sean Bunting or OT-Tytus Howard.

I'm a big Pauline fan and agree he seems to be plugged into the Falcons a good bit. Glad to hear Greedy is high on their board. He fits what they want on the outside a lot and Tru as a nickel corner at times could be a boon. Also wouldn't force you to play Kazee as nickel and let him be more of a third safety and ballhawk. I know people would complain, but if the value dictates the best CB on the board over reaching for the 5th best DL then go for it. Also think if it's not Ford, Taylor, or Jonah, punt on RT at #14. 

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2 minutes ago, vel said:

I'm a big Pauline fan and agree he seems to be plugged into the Falcons a good bit. Glad to hear Greedy is high on their board. He fits what they want on the outside a lot and Tru as a nickel corner at times could be a boon. Also wouldn't force you to play Kazee as nickel and let him be more of a third safety and ballhawk. I know people would complain, but if the value dictates the best CB on the board over reaching for the 5th best DL then go for it. Also think if it's not Ford, Taylor, or Jonah, punt on RT at #14. 

Greedy runs away from tackles. You will all hate him in 2 years.

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14 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

Greedy runs away from tackles. You will all hate him in 2 years.

True but Deion Sanders wasn't exactly a tackling machine - not saying Greedy is Deion because no one is Prime Time.    Was Greedy making "business decisions" on Saturday that he won't have to make on Sunday once he starts getting paid?  probably not.

Yeah, if Greedy won't tackle, I would think DQ wouldn't be too interested - especially at #14.  The dude can cover receivers like dew covers grass though - gotta give him that.

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9 minutes ago, Yo_Lover said:

Greedy runs away from tackles. You will all hate him in 2 years.

So does Tru and we paid him millions. If you can shut down your side and take the ball away, I can live with some "passive" run defense from a corner. Antonio Cromartie was an example of this in his prime. 

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11 hours ago, falconidae said:

Yeah, I'm sure he's gone next year, just not this one.

That's why we should take a cb this year, takes 1 season for cb to learn the system.

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Ever time I watch film on Lawrence all I see is the double teams that 42 gets. CB is the best at 14. I like Baker becourse he tackles. Williams will cover but both are better than what we have now. And do not give me there not worth a 14 thats bull. If it fits your team its worth the pick.Give me 1 of them sec CB and play football..

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On 4/13/2019 at 10:41 PM, Rise said:

Trade with Raiders: Their two lower 1st rounders for #14, and The Falcons 2nd rounder.

That's NT Lawrence and a CB, or OT.

I.said the same awhile back. Absolute best case.scenario from my perspective

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