gazoo

All these signings, Davison, Clayborn, Laguda, Cooper , brought in vets OT Ulrick John, DE Odum, Reynolds, DT Hageman....I’m thinking a few trade ups

139 posts in this topic

11 hours ago, rocknots23 said:

Dan Quinn knows he doesn't have time to develop draft picks if he doesn't win this year.. A losing season with a strong offensive performance will lead to his dismissal.. The next head coach already on the staff at the ready

Koetter?

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12 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Bro. I'm working on bust nics already. And we probably spent $13M on em, in addition to Beasley's $13M. Like Kiwi continually says, Quinn better coach up some rooks and scrubs this year. This is Dimi's follow up to cutting Alf, Teco, Levitre, Shredder, Bryant, Shelby and Garland. Better nail this draft.

I'm with you except I doubt any of these guys other than AC will even touch the cap space.

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2 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

I’ll take DQ and you take Smitty in a playoff heads up. Actually no, I won’t do that to you. No one wants to watch a blowout like that. 

Normally I agree with your posts.... we usually see things the same way.

This time, if its a question as to who is the better HC, Quinn or Smitty….it would be an interesting conversation for sure.   If you took Quinn and I took Smitty….not sure either of us could actually prove anything either way.

I will make this observation....Quinn is a better evaluator of talent.   Smitty was better at getting the most out of the talent he had.  Quinn has more talent available than Smitty did.  What would Smitty do, with the talent we have now?

Too bad we will never know.

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6 minutes ago, egoprime II said:

Normally I agree with your posts.... we usually see things the same way.

This time, if its a question as to who is the better HC, Quinn or Smitty….it would be an interesting conversation for sure.   If you took Quinn and I took Smitty….not sure either of us could actually prove anything either way.

I will make this observation....Quinn is a better evaluator of talent.   Smitty was better at getting the most out of the talent he had.  Quinn has more talent available than Smitty did.  What would Smitty do, with the talent we have now?

Too bad we will never know.

Ok let’s give them the same players and OCs. I still know who I’m taking. It’s not close. 

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3 hours ago, egoprime II said:

All good points worth taking into consideration.  Here is why I don't like losing picks, an example....

Lets say.... the Falcons trade away our third round pick to move up.  TD has done this twice in the last few years.  In 2013 we selected Trufant in the 1st after a tradeup...while the Ravens took g-dawg fave DT Brandon Williams in the 3rd round.   Williams was a Pro Bowl pick this year.

What position are we looking to trade up for?  Where we have a dire need?  Defensive Tackle.  Because we traded away our 3rd that year, we passed on a good DT....so now we get to trade multiple picks to fix that problem?   

Meanwhile the Falcons went to the Super Bowl without Trufant, he was on IR for what....six games?  And now Trufant -may- be getting too expensive to keep, so we may need to use -another- 1st or 2nd rounder to replace him. Maybe even this year (BTW I want to keep Trufant).

All this trading has a snowball effect.  As for how deep a draft is or isn't....who can really know?  Scouting is such an inexact science, with -way- too many intangibles to be able to predict anything.  But one thing is for sure.... when you start losing picks, you lose more chances to find good players.  Right now the Falcons have five former 5th rounders on our roster.

There are 22 starting spots, at least, on a team.   One great position player is not going to put us 'over the top'.  Suh did not do it in Detroit or Miami....McCoy did not do it in Tampa Bay.  Aaron Donald did not do it with the Rams.

Meanwhile....former 5th round pick Grady Jarrett -might- just be the best defender we have.....

I can not deny that what you wrote makes sense.  The more picks you have, the better the chance that you acquire more contributors.  

But, what if this draft stinks?  There have been dud drafts in the past.  Could this be one of them?  What if the only real contributors are in the early part of the first round?  It's not likely, but it still remains a possibility.

These are the decisions that a FO has to make......and their jobs depend on their performance.  We will see how this one turns out.   

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3 hours ago, egoprime II said:

Glanville was a good coach, he just wasn't a good head coach.    The Falcons really were forced to hire him....most good coaches avoided the Falcons like the plague. 

I do blame Glanville for us losing Favre.... but the Smith's bore some responsibility too, since they were pressuring their coaches to win now, right now.  Glanville had a Pro Bowl QB... he had no time to start developing a rookie one.  Plus the Smith's are the ones that let Deion Sanders walk away for -nothing-... not Glanville.

Glanville was gone after what, three seasons?  Imagine if Blank operated that way....

Yeah those were the Clampett years.  Hillybilly millionaires that thought they knew what they were doing.  

Ken Herok was a mess of a GM

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13 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Bro. I'm working on bust nics already. And we probably spent $13M on em, in addition to Beasley's $13M. Like Kiwi continually says, Quinn better coach up some rooks and scrubs this year. This is Dimi's follow up to cutting Alf, Teco, Levitre, Shredder, Bryant, Shelby and Garland. Better nail this draft.

If they don't ABSOLUTELY nail this draft, FFS1970, Dimi and Quinn better have their LinkedIn profiles up to date.

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7 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

Not exactly a hard group to replace

You sure? Overall 2018 PFF ratings (average = 65.7):

  • Bryant - 78.7
  • Garland - 69.3
  • Reed - 66.6
  • Teco - 66.0
  • Shredder - 63.7
  • Shelby - 63.7
  • Levitre - 61.2
  • Alf - 56.6

New Dimi class (average = 62.4):

  • Luke Stocker - 76.4
  • Adrian Clayborn 67.7
  • Kenjon Barner - 60.0
  • James Carpenter - 56.3
  • Jamon Brown - 51.7
  • Adam Gettis - no NFL snaps
  • Afolabi Laguda - no NFL snaps
  • Chris Cooper - no NFL snaps

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1 hour ago, Tandy said:

I'm with you except I doubt any of these guys other than AC will even touch the cap space.

All of these guys should hit the Top 51:

  • Adrian Clayborn - TBD
  • Jamon Brown - $4.3M
  • James Carpenter - $2.9M
  • Luke Stocker - $2.2M
  • Kenjon Barner - $0.7M
  • Adam Gettis - $0.7M

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@gazoo . which one of Dimi's free agent classes did you like most:

  • 2008 - Michael Turner, Erik Coleman, Jason Elam, Ben Hartsock, Marcus Pollard, Kindal Moorehead, Wayne Gandy
  • 2009 - Matt Bryant, Michael Peterson, Brian Williams, Brett Romberg, Jamaal Fudge
  • 2010 - Dunta Robinson, Rafael Bush
  • 2011 - Ray Edwards, Will Svitek, Reggie Kelly, Kelvin Hayden, James Sanders, Mike Cox, Drew Davis, Darin Walls, Bear Woods
  • 2012 - Lofa Tatupu, Vince Manuwai, Chase Coffman, Lousaka Polite
  • 2013 - Steven Jackson, Osi Umenyiora, Ryan Schraeder, Patrick Dimarco, Paul Worrilow, Joplo Bartu, Jeremy Trueblood
  • 2014 - Devin Hester, Paul Soliai, Tyson Jackson, Jon Asamoah, Dwight Lowery, Josh Wilson, Bear Pascoe, Pat Angerer, Nate Stupar, Charles Godfrey
  • 2015 - Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed, Jacob Tamme, Chris Chester, O'Brien Schofield, Justin Durant, Phillip Wheeler, Tony Moeaki, Robinson Therezie, Mike Person, Leonard Hankerson
  • 2016 - Alex Mack, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Dwight Freeney, Derrick Shelby, Sean Weatherspoon, Courtney Upshaw, Brian Poole, Matt Schaub, Aldrick Robinson, LaRoy Reynolds, Joshua Perkins, Lance Moore, Stevan Ridley
  • 2017 - Dontari Poe, Jack Crawford, Ty Sambrailo, Ahtyba Rubin, Andre Roberts, Derrick Coleman, Marvin Hall
  • 2018 - Brandon Fusco, Bruce Irvin, Steven Means, Terrell McLain, Zane Beadles, Justin Bethel, Bruce Carter, Brian Hill, Jon Condo, Jeremy Langford, Jordan Richards, Logan Paulsen, Giorgio Tavecchio
  • 2019 - Adrian Clayborn, Luke Stocker, James Carpenter, Jamon Brown, Kenjon Barner, Adam Gettis, Chris Cooper, Afolabi Laguda

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49 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

You sure? Overall 2018 PFF ratings (average = 65.6):

  • Bryant - 78.7
  • Garland - 69.3
  • Teco - 66.0
  • Shredder - 63.7
  • Shelby - 63.7
  • Levitre - 61.2
  • Alf - 56.6

New Dimi class (average = 62.4):

  • Luke Stocker - 76.4
  • Adrian Clayborn 67.7
  • Kenjon Barner - 60.0
  • James Carpenter - 56.3
  • Jamon Brown - 51.7
  • Adam Gettis - no NFL snaps
  • Afolabi Laguda - no NFL snaps
  • Chris Cooper - no NFL snaps

Garland, Levitre and Shelby hardly played any snaps last year. Alford and Shraeder were awful - their replacements are already on the roster and performed better.

The biggest loses are Teco, Bryant and Reed. Smith and Italian Ice should be competent replacements for the 1st two. The only one I'd be worried about replacing is Reed.

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5 hours ago, etherdome said:

Yeah those were the Clampett years.  Hillybilly millionaires that thought they knew what they were doing.  

Ken Herok was a mess of a GM

I agree with you concerning the Smiths, to a point.  See....the Smiths were in love with being owners of an NFL team.  The parts that benefitted them, that is, like the fame it brought them.  Plus the money they made off the team.    Two places they fell way short:  the Smiths did not like to spend money.....bye bye, Deion.... and, they wanted the Falcons to be a 'family' operation.   Example:   when Rankin Sr decided to step away from day to day operations, he handed the reins to the person he felt was the most qualified:  his son.   Not an uncommon thing in the NFL......

Herock really did not do that badly, considering the lack of resources at his disposal.   He engineered the first Jeff George trade....drafted Favre, OLs like Kennedy and Whitfield, DE Chuck Smith, RB Jamaal Anderson, DT Travis Hall, signed FAs like Ironhead Heyward.... he only traded Favre because the coaches wanted him gone, traded -for- George because June Jones wanted him.   When Dan Reeves took over all duties and Herock left, our drafts took a serious nosedive.   I wish Herock had stayed...

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13 hours ago, etherdome said:

In principle, I agree with you.  However, there are reasons why our FO may not wan to draft 9 prospects in this draft.  Let's take a look at what they might do with the nine picks and give reasons for moving those picks.

First of all, Gazoo's point:  we plan to trade three picks for the opportunity to draft "our guy" earlier in round one.  Clearly, there are at least four defenders in this draft that are worth such a trade (Q. Williams, N. Bosa, E. Oliver and J Allen).  All four have the talent to have immediate impact.  Moving to the #8 would cost us a third rounder and another late round pick.  That is not an exorbitant price to pay for a guy that can put our defense among the top ten in the league.

Another possibility is that we plan to use several of our picks to move up  in either the second or third rounds.  As the draft moves along, we may find a highly regarded prospect is passed over by the rest of the league.....it probably happens every year.  TD now has the assets to move up and scoop up an impactful prospect at a relatively small cost.  

TD may also decide that he wants to move out of this draft and into another.  In other words, he may pull a Belechick and trade a pick this year for multiple draft picks next year.  

It all comes down to how TD and his staff view our present roster and their assessments of this draft's prospects.  Fans like myself really don't know how good any of these prospects stack up against previous drafts.  For all we know, TD does not like the depth in this draft. He may see only a few worthwhile prospects.  If that is the case, then moving up makes all the sense in the world.  

The recent free agency signings indicate that the Falcons are going to be active during the draft.  I think that Gazoo is on to something.   

Excellent post. You laid out the argument well. A critical piece of it, is we do not yet know how the Falcons see this draft. That premise is critical to having an understanding of the thought process.

I do not yet know if we have a guy we have targeted in 1st round that we would trade up for. It could RT Jawaan and he absolutely would be a game changer to our offense and be critical in keeping Matt Ryan healthy for a longer period of time. Expanding Ryan’s window should not be dismissed.

It could be DT Oliver if DQ feels he would transform the defense. Posters bemoan the idea suggesting we have no 1 tech, but Senat is a NT and we can draft a 2 down run stuffer to rotate in middle rounds if coaches feel we need another.

Now, your suggestion about staying put at #1, but using some picks to move around in 2nd and possibly 3rd rounds is also a realistic scenario. I see a lot of players in the 2nd round that might be very good fits here.  Would it really be all that bad, if Falcons see 2 players in 2nd round that would be difference makers this year, start immediately, to select at 14 in round one, then have 2 second round picks if we we see big drop in round 3? 

How about the Falcons don’t see value in what will be available at 14, and trade down into lower portion of round 1, pick up and extra 2nd or 3rd, then trade more to land three 2nd round picks while keeping a late 1st rounder? In this scenario, we could possibly get 4 starters/big 2019 contributors in first two rounds. 

Many are panicking about the changes made to roster so far, but the panic seems premature to me. I have a strong feeling the week after draft weekend this place is going to be excited. 

So we still have the draft, then we still have a chance to pick up players during training camp cuts.

 

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6 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

All of these guys should hit the Top 51:

  • Adrian Clayborn - TBD
  • Jamon Brown - $4.3M
  • James Carpenter - $2.9M
  • Luke Stocker - $2.2M
  • Kenjon Barner - $0.7M
  • Adam Gettis - $0.7M

Yep - you are right.

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I actually believe this is the year the defense is going to solidly into a dominant force. The injuries destroyed us last year, but we could see it all come together this year with DQ taking back over and this 2019 draft class.  Fingers crossed on Oliver.

I also believe Sark wasnt able to get the most out of the talent on his offense, not to mention OL injuries with bad depth tanked our offense last year. I believe the offense could be the second best since Ryan has been here. (Dam near impossible to best 2016)

I think we have a very good chance at having a top rated offense, with the best defense of the Ryan era backing that offense up.

Again, all the pieces are not in place yet, after the draft I think this place is going to change from cynicism to optimism.

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5 hours ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

@gazoo . which one of Dimi's free agent classes did you like most:

  • 2008 - Michael Turner, Erik Coleman, Jason Elam, Ben Hartsock, Marcus Pollard, Kindal Moorehead, Wayne Gandy
  • 2009 - Matt Bryant, Michael Peterson, Brian Williams, Brett Romberg, Jamaal Fudge
  • 2010 - Dunta Robinson, Rafael Bush
  • 2011 - Ray Edwards, Will Svitek, Reggie Kelly, Kelvin Hayden, James Sanders, Mike Cox, Drew Davis, Darin Walls, Bear Woods
  • 2012 - Lofa Tatupu, Vince Manuwai, Chase Coffman, Lousaka Polite
  • 2013 - Steven Jackson, Osi Umenyiora, Ryan Schraeder, Patrick Dimarco, Paul Worrilow, Joplo Bartu, Jeremy Trueblood
  • 2014 - Devin Hester, Paul Soliai, Tyson Jackson, Jon Asamoah, Dwight Lowery, Josh Wilson, Bear Pascoe, Pat Angerer, Nate Stupar, Charles Godfrey
  • 2015 - Adrian Clayborn, Brooks Reed, Jacob Tamme, Chris Chester, O'Brien Schofield, Justin Durant, Phillip Wheeler, Tony Moeaki, Robinson Therezie, Mike Person, Leonard Hankerson
  • 2016 - Alex Mack, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Gabriel, Dwight Freeney, Derrick Shelby, Sean Weatherspoon, Courtney Upshaw, Brian Poole, Matt Schaub, Aldrick Robinson, LaRoy Reynolds, Joshua Perkins, Lance Moore, Stevan Ridley
  • 2017 - Dontari Poe, Jack Crawford, Ty Sambrailo, Ahtyba Rubin, Andre Roberts, Derrick Coleman, Marvin Hall
  • 2018 - Brandon Fusco, Bruce Irvin, Steven Means, Terrell McLain, Zane Beadles, Justin Bethel, Bruce Carter, Brian Hill, Jon Condo, Jeremy Langford, Jordan Richards, Logan Paulsen, Giorgio Tavecchio
  • 2019 - Adrian Clayborn, Luke Stocker, James Carpenter, Jamon Brown, Kenjon Barner, Adam Gettis, Chris Cooper, Afolabi Laguda

Overall Class - 2016.    Players - Turner, Bryant, Brian Williams, Elam was good for the first year, Dimarco, Worrilow, Hester, Soliai, Clayborn, Tamme, Schofield, Sanu, Gabriel, Freeney, Shelby, Upshaw, Poole, Mack, Poe, Crawford, Sambrailo, Irvin, Tavecchio and a few others.   Some worked out better than others - some were unfortunately injured.

I really liked Brian Williams - was sad that he tore his acl.   I also really liked Hartsock - good blocker.   

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Here's what I think is going on,,,,  The FO and TD has gone out and gotten as many good players as they could find for the money... to fill needs on the team ,,, whether they be Backups or starters..  And now that they have done that.. 

IN the Draft they are going to pick and choose exactly what players they want since they have like 9 picks.... and go get them ,, I think they are going to trade more than any other team,, even thou it may be only 2 or 3 times.. That's a lot...  Hopfully the players will fall mostly to our picks.. but,, I think they will go after exact players they want.. So that means maybe only ending up with like say 6 or 7 players,, for example ,, But those players will be hand picked and very solid players,, since they will be trading up for those they specificly want.. The good news is, we have 2 comp picks to fill the two picks we use to get the best players,, 

I made a post a few months ago,, and I'll say it again.. It's the team that has the most players that are best at their positions.. And what ever team has more of these players.. is more likely to be in the mix at the end of the year for a SB run. I've always been a big fan of TD,, and our owner.. My Blank,, They have a goal in mind.. And that is to raise the Gold Trophy after the SB this year.

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31 minutes ago, Tandy said:

Overall Class - 2016.    Players - Turner, Bryant, Brian Williams, Elam was good for the first year, Dimarco, Worrilow, Hester, Soliai, Clayborn, Tamme, Schofield, Sanu, Gabriel, Freeney, Shelby, Upshaw, Poole, Mack, Poe, Crawford, Sambrailo, Irvin, Tavecchio and a few others.   Some worked out better than others - some were unfortunately injured.

I really liked Brian Williams - was sad that he tore his acl.   I also really liked Hartsock - good blocker.   

Dimi had a few player hits from 2008-2012. Had a very good run from 2013-2017 with Pioli on his staff. Had to go bottom feeding in 2018-2019 due to cap mismanagement. 2016 was his best free agency class overall. Spent a lot and went to a Bowl that year. Won't be able to sign a class like that anytime soon with his self inflicted cap issues.

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35 minutes ago, Tandy said:

Overall Class - 2016.    Players - Turner, Bryant, Brian Williams, Elam was good for the first year, Dimarco, Worrilow, Hester, Soliai, Clayborn, Tamme, Schofield, Sanu, Gabriel, Freeney, Shelby, Upshaw, Poole, Mack, Poe, Crawford, Sambrailo, Irvin, Tavecchio and a few others.   Some worked out better than others - some were unfortunately injured.

I really liked Brian Williams - was sad that he tore his acl.   I also really liked Hartsock - good blocker.   

Dimi had a few individual player hits from 2008-2012. Had a very good run from 2013-2017 with Pioli joining his staff. Had to go bottom feeding in 2018-2019 due to cap mismanagement. 2016 was his best free agency class overall. Spent a lot and went to a Bowl that year. Won't be able to sign a class like that anytime soon with his self inflicted cap issues.

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19 hours ago, Knight of God said:

If that defense isn’t top 10, I’m out. I made up my mind. Same way I made up my mind to move to the DC area and my life got better. Sometimes when you don’t get what you need, leaving is the best way. The philosophy is based on the culture. The only difference now is we win games, but I’m not looking for a SB. I want just need a dominant defense. We’re unlikely to ever get that trophy, so all I ask in this marriage is to give me something I want. 

Don’t fix me a casserole when I want lasagna, I said fried chicken not baked, I need red kool aid with a bag of sugar, not liptons iced tea with a cup of sweetener.

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I don't think it has anything to do with trading up... I think in TDs mind,, is,, Get all the players of need as many as possible, in FAcy and in the Draft,, so to have more players to choose from with the finial Roster....  Hmmmm ,, that is a smart man..

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10 minutes ago, Draftnut57 said:

I don't think it has anything to do with trading up... I think in TDs mind,, is,, Get all the players of need as many as possible, in FAcy and in the Draft,, so to have more players to choose from with the finial Roster....  Hmmmm ,, that is a smart man..

It would appear to me there are several very good players that fit our system in round 2 that could be of immediate help to us.

i wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a late 1st round pick, and 3 second round picks. I also would not be surprised if we move up in round 1 to grab Jawaan or Oliver and still have a 2nd and 3rd round pick. 

 

i agree 100% with you, we are going target specific this year

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8 minutes ago, gazoo said:

It would appear to me there are several very good players that fit our system in round 2 that could be of immediate help to us.

i wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a late 1st round pick, and 3 second round picks. I also would be surprised if we move up in round 1 to grab Jawaan or Oliver

 

i agree 100% with you, we are going target specific this year

Up until the last few days.. I was wanting to take an OL in round 1 and a DL in round 2,, but now,, If we could get Wilkins in round 1,, There are a lot of really great OL that will be at 45.. Dillard may even be there. Wilkins is a recking ball... :swoon:

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