g-dawg

Trade-DOWN mock - Falcons break tendencies - this one for atljbo!

89 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Wait...we have people hating on Tytus Howard because of his 3-cone time? How can that be when TATF fan favorite, Cody Ford only ran a difference of .07 seconds (8.27 & 8.34 respectively).

 

 

On another note don't criticize Lance Mock draft's.

 

Edited by Cole World
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54 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

So...one could approach mock drafts with these things in mind from this analysis. Which of these players projected to start in 2019 that could be gone by 2020 or no longer starting in other words...would I want to invest the most draft capital into?

Isaiah Oliver

IF he turns out badly as a full-time starter...makes CB a likely 2019 need in that scenario...so...CB will be drafted SOMEWHERE by mid-rounds at the latest...Wilson is insurance for now...fix the DL!! and worry about CB less than your front 7 but still address it

Foye or Campbell

IF either Foye regresses and leaves something to be desired as a starter over Duke...or Campbell is gone in a year...one is possible...the other is likely...imagine if both happen...back to 1 quality starting LB!!...hence this mock draft :tiphat: 

Senat or Grady

IF either Senat does not progress to starter reps and holding down the 1T OR if Grady is not secured long-term and we face another franchise OR pay him EVEN MORE next offseason? Suddenly, both 1T and 3T are the biggest needs on defense. This is where the hope of "take Oliver" if he is at 14 becomes the ideal draft, IMO. As in...you can take a 1T later to secure rotation with Senat who already showed enough to be a solid rotation piece...but you'd need Grady insurance still...oh and Crawford is an UFA next offseason DL is our biggest weakness

VB

VB is likely gone next year; for comp picks and being overpriced vs his value to the Falcons. a 3-4 team that wants to put him at OLB for rushing the passer with "stout OL absorbing" caliber DL....they may love him...even if on a shorter 2-3 year option deal it will be more than the Falcons would offer him UNLESS he goes off in 2019...and we're left franchising him or bid war...yeah he is probably gone.

Ty

Aside from the likelihood of getting an Alex Mack groom inside and security as well from that pick to cover OG if necessary...RT is the only real concern this year IF you presume Mack plays out his contract. That means technically C is pushed a year back but it's likely C is groomed for a couple years instead. We can afford that with the extra draft capital we have. However, RT is clearly the position with positional concern. If Ty regresses with a full season of starting...we're back to RS status. The goal is he can maintain what he has shown over a season and if he does...we still need a swing/3rd OT...hence the idea of drafting one fairly high this draft.

Therefore, which positions are more likely to see the field as starters by 2020; if drafted this year?

DT/LB/DE basically are all possibilities; DT less if GJ is signed and Senat has high vote of confidence inside the org for the 1T starter snaps....then you look at DE and LB next year. Those are therefore the most likely positions to have a draft pick from 2019 starting in 2020 at the latest.

RT and CB get in just behind those things. That's why I'm willing to let OT and CB slide in draft capital order to secure LB and DT in round 1 and augment the proposed mock draft by @g-dawg

PS: Honorable mention goes to RB with Free's health and depending on how the org determines it's usefulness/need at RB. C is basically just behind RT only because Mack can be presumed to play out his contract (IMO for sake of this discussion yet still wanting to take a mid-round C to groom for 2 years)

Nice post Ergo - very analytical and clear highlights.

At TATF, I believe we get consumed too much about trying to put together drafts with 3-4 starters in Rookie year.

What you did here was take a more macro view of the roster looking past 2019 and into the years that really matter in a player’s career and what they can contribute to the team - I wish we as a collective did more of that on TATF.   Last year we drafted Calvin Ridley who was our #3 WR heading into the season while Oliver didn’t even play much until the end - and that’s OK.

A smart NFL GM with no pressure about job security should never look for the quick fix or just look at player’s that will start on his team in Year#1.   LB/CB/OT/C are all positions that maybe don’t need a starter in 2019 but we need to start getting these players on our roster now capable of starting by 2020 - AND - you take the BETTER player at a likely need by Year 2 than an inferior player with a clearer pathway to Year #1.   That is EXACTLY what we need and what was done in 2018 draft - while jury is out on Oliver/Senat - I believe we all agree that so far the Falcons likely made the right call on Calvin Ridley.

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4 hours ago, vel said:

Yall really have to stop looking at OL play like this. First off, I highly doubt you were watching the center by himself. Second, if this is how you look at OL play, we should have cut Jake after 2014 with that logic. Third, using the same logic, we should let Mack go since we also struggled in short yardage situations...

Jeez dude!! That's not how I evalute OL play. I was only half serious. I'm an Auburn fan. Georgia is one of Auburn's man rivals. So it was a little bit of a poke at G-Dawg putting 3 Georgia players in his mock.

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3 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Thinking about doing a draft history thread for nostalgia for us old guys and eye opening results for the younger guys to understand why Falcons were sooo bad for sooo long.

That would be cool!!

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5 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Your English teacher just passed out.

Im on a.kindle.that adds random periods puts spaces inside words, and is the.worst autocorrect system made.

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6 hours ago, g-dawg said:

That’s cool.  The first two guys would likely do well in your model as well - off the chart explosion measurements to go with their production on the field.  Gotta have both!

you would be correct my dude.

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On 3/23/2019 at 9:07 AM, etherdome said:

I didn't want to be the one to post this, but his father is still one of the worst Falcon draft memories I have.  I know that the "sins of the father should not be passed to the son", but wow, I am still sore about that fateful decision over twenty years ago.  

Derrick Brooks was there for the taking and many of us were screaming for him.  Yeah, when the name "Devin Bush" was announced, there was a long pause.  

You bring back memories of so many of our draft picks that were so bad, as a Falcon fan you weren't disappointed, you were literally sick to your stomach. No need to mention any names, for they were legion. lol.

As for the mock, good job g-dawg, entertaining and well-researched as always, but when the real thing goes down I believe we go for the best DE that falls to us at #14, likely Wilkins I suppose. Who we go after from there I don't pretend to have a clue, but it should be 99 percent defense.

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3 hours ago, Knight of God said:

I think the pick will be Wilkins or Lawrence 

With the trade down approach or at 14; either way DT?

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2 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

I can’t call how, it’s just my guess we will 

It just seems to make too much sense.

Despite how tempting one of the LBs might be it's risky with the holes along the DL.

At least with a more skilled DL, the LB and even CB situation isn't as glaring and really shouldn't be a problem this year barring injury. Get a prospect in mid-rounds for CB/LB and see what we need to do there next draft but fix the LOS early this year. :shrug: 

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G-Dawg, a couple of comments and questions...

1. I'm glad others see that LB is a need.  a. we can improve our current LB play drastically and b. next offseason the LB decisions are going to be difficult.  Having 2 stud LB's would make this defense so much better and right now we only have 1. 

2. Are you assuming Devin White is off the board in your mock or do you prefer Devin Bush over White?  I prefer White over Bush.

3.  I like Gilliard as a prospect but not a fan of Holyfield.

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20 hours ago, g-dawg said:

I am not predicting it will happen but certainly is a possibility - not necessarily the most likely though.  To me, the most likely 1st round scenario with needs and BPA meet is at the following positions:

1) DT (Oliver, Wilkins, Lawrence)

2) RT (Ford, Taylor, Jonah Will.)

Anything is possible and unpredictable when it comes to TD......stay tuned. 

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20 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

Jeez dude!! That's not how I evalute OL play. I was only half serious. I'm an Auburn fan. Georgia is one of Auburn's man rivals. So it was a little bit of a poke at G-Dawg putting 3 Georgia players in his mock.

I was about to say. I expect so much more from you!

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