g-dawg

Trade-DOWN mock - Falcons break tendencies - this one for atljbo!

89 posts in this topic

Solid @g-dawg given the scenario. I think if Ford is there the Falcons jump all over him. I've said it many times already I think the Falcons will make a trade this draft. Ideally I hope it's back into the first or even end up with two 2nd rounders.

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17 hours ago, g-dawg said:

@atljbo- for you my Falcon Feathered brotha from anotha mutha!

Alright, this has been the "experimental mock" week - not necessarily what I think will happen or even necessarily what I would do in the first round - but moreso - if we don't sit statically and wait for our #14 pick but try to make something happen by moving up or down - how would that affect the rest of our draft - also, maybe look at a position we aren't necessarily thinking about in the 1st round.

Here goes nothin'...

2019 Atlanta Falcons Draft - Nashville, TN

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Image result for atlanta falcons helmet and draft helmet

 

Welcome to the Dirty South...  13 players have been selected.....Roger Goodell steps to the podium:

"The Atlanta Falcons have traded their #14 pick to the Minnesota Vikings for their #18 pick.  The Vikings also convey to Atlanta their 3rd round pick - #81.  With the 14th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select - Cody Ford, OT - Oklahoma."

Image result for roger goodell at draft podium atlanta

 

Another 30 minutes pass by......(insert whistling sounds here...:munch:)

 

Here comes RAJA again...

Image result for roger goodell at draft podium atlanta

 

"The Atlanta Falcons are now on the clock......With the 18th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons select.........

DEVIN BUSH, Linebacker - Michigan

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Bush is the son of the former Florida State and NFL defensive back with the same name (and FORMER FALCON). His father also got a chance to coach his son as a defensive analyst under Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh. Bush was a four-star recruit and two-time All-Florida pick in his own right before signing with Harbaugh. He contributed as a reserve linebacker and on special teams as a freshman (12 tackles) and then stepped into the starting lineup in 2017. He compiled 102 tackles, 9.5 for loss, five sacks, and an interception as a sophomore, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors while also being named a finalist for the Butkus Award as the nation's top linebacker. The team captain followed up that season by being named the Big Ten's Defensive Player of the Year in 2018 and an Associated Press second-team All-American. He led the Wolverines with 80 stops, 9.5 for loss, five sacks, and six pass breakups in 12 games. Bush did not play in the team's bowl game so he could prepare for the draft.

Devin Bush Combine Testing:   5'11", 234lbs,  4.43/40, 40.5" vert, 124" broad jump, 6.93/3-cone

 

 

G-Dawg comments on the pick:  This guy reminds me a lot of Roquan Smith - he just finds the football on almost every play and finishes great with form tackling.   While he is 2-3 inches shorter than ideal, his speed and athleticism makes up for it - also a real good blitzer - like Deion Jones - can cover and make plays in space.   You put Deion and Devin on the field in nickel and it's like having two extra safeties in coverage - also will allow the Falcons to dial up more blitzes with such great cover backs as well.   While Linebacker is not a huge need this year, very good chance the Falcons have to let DeVondre Campbell go next year while paying to re-sign Deion Jones.  While selecting Devin doesn't help us with more size, it does make us faster and Devin does play physical.   For our troubles, we add another mid 3rd round pick for another top 100 player and we can load up a little more now on other needs.

 

#2-045) Amani Oruwariye, 6'2", 205lbs, 4.47/40, 36.5" vert, 120" broad, 6.82/3-cone

Image result for amani oruwariye nfl combine

G-Dawg comments:     There was a lot of questions about his speed but he answered that at the combine  with a sub 4.50/40 - big press corner who can also play zone.  Aggressive player that will play the ball in the air and has the athleticism to win the jump balls.   Scheme versatile and will play Dan Quinn's style of defense.   Has length and matches up well on outside "X" receivers.

 

#3-079) Tytus Howard, OT - Alabama State (6'5", 322lbs, 34" arms, 10 5/8" hand)

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G-Dawg comments:   I know TATF as a whole hates this pick and I still won't let it go.  YES, I know his three-cone drill was atrocious and he only bench pressed 21 times so some of the testing is less than ideal.   I don't care - this kid is long and strong and has all the tools.  YES, he will need some development but he is very comparable to me to Jason Peters - who has similar background starting his career at Arkansas as a TE - just like Tytus.   There is a lot of buzz about this kid and Philadelphia Eagles are kicking the tires hard on this guy and we all know the Iggles know how to draft offensive linement.   almost half the NFL Teams have a "30-visit" scheduled w/ him.  This cat won't make it out of the 3rd round - even a chance he could sneak into the late 1st with a team like the Eagles or Patriots that know how to draft the position.   Falcons have shown a lot of interest as well.  He will take a year to develop but Falcons can afford to wait with Sambrailo on board already and secured for a few years.

 

#3-081 f/ Minnesota)  D'Andre Walker, DE/OLB-Georgia ( 6'2", 251lbs, 34 3/8" arm, 9 7/8" hand)

Image result for d'andre walker

G-Dawg comments:  this is one of those kids that was a late-bloomer at UGA and stuck behind some talented players ahead of him in class.  He was the entire passrush at UGA this year and still was productive.   Had he not left the Alabama game in the SEC Championship, I believe the Dawgs would have beaten Bama - as soon as he was lost for the rest of the game, the defense folded.   Walker has good speed and is an ascending player - 3rd round is the right place to pick him.

 

#4-117)  Lamont Gaillard, C - Georgia (6'3", 308lbs, 33 1/8" arms, 10 3/8" hand)

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Three-year starter and team captain whose tenacity and dirt-dog mentality typifies the Georgia offensive line over the last couple of years. Gaillard's play is not without technique, but when the rep gets sideways on him, he will turn it into a proverbial fist-fight to try and hang on and get his job done. He's better down the middle than laterally and may be best suited in a power-based run scheme. It's not going to always look pretty, but his tape against Alabama shows that he's capable of becoming an eventual starter sometime soon.

G-Dawg comments:  OK, right about now you are starting to think I'm a homer.  Anyone who has been on TATF for 5 years or more will tell you that's not the case.   If the Falcons only take one player from UGA, I hope it's Gaillard (I know, I have Walker going a round earlier).   This is actually a deep draft at the top for Centers with Garrett Bradbury, Elgton Jenkins and Eric McCoy all expected to go in the first two rounds.   Not a lot of buzz about Gaillard but sensational Alabama Defensive Tackle Quinnen Williams knows what's up - he played against Gaillard and Jenkins/McCoy and stated that Gaillard was the best Center he faced all year - and he's right.   Gaillard has some scheme flexibility in that he can play both in inside zone and man power.   While not overly gifted on the reach blocks, he performs more than adequately there as well.   Fairly decent anchor in pass pro sets.   Gaillard also has played guard and could man time there while waiting for the next few years for Alex Mack to retire.

#4-137) Daylon Mack, DT - Texas A&M (6'1", 336lbs, 31 1/4" arm, 10 3/8" hand) 

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G-Dawg comments:  Here is the stout bull that can anchor the middle that all of you are craving without spending huge draft capital on a Dexter Lawrence.   While Daylon Mack isn't in the same class as Dexter Lawrence - he checks all the boxes we need for a rotational nose tackle - very stout in the running game and hard to move - can take on double teams without giving ground.   When left in the game on passing downs, has the ability to collapse the pocket.   Was a 5-star player coming out of high school.   Rarely stops churning his fee which makes him a very efficient bull rusher.

 

#5-152)  Elijah Holyfield, RB - Georgia (5'10", 217lbs, 4.78/40, 26bench press, 29.5" vert)

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G-Dawg comments:   Obviously the poor showing at the NFL combine with slow 40-time and his inability to improve on it at his pro-day is hurting his NFL stock.  However, I see him as a nice complement to what the Falcons already have in the backfield.   Running a 4.7/40 isn't the end of the world in a 2-3 back rotation as long as you do what you do well - Holyfield is very physical player and can move the pile and be effective goal-line runner as well.   While his timed speed looks poor, his play speed is much faster - he will never be a breakaway runner but is capable of hitting the hole and ripping off 10-20yd runs.    I believe he compares as a "poor man's Mark Ingram" - not quite as good as Ingram but that kind of player.  Holyfield is not a "jump cut" guy and he won't make guys miss in the hole but if the play is blocked for a 10yrd run - he will get what's there and then still might drag defenders for another 2-3yards.   I have him here in the 5th round but its conceivable he goes even later.  OK I admit it - it's starting to get ridiculous that I have 3 Georgia players in here.  

#5-172) Diontae Johnson, WR-Toledo (5'10", 183lbs,  4.53/40)

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Despite a lack of desired size, Johnson might have the ability to play inside or outside thanks to his speed and ability to elude press from his release. He has basketball athleticism, but his routes will need more focus and less freestyle once he steps up in competition. The athleticism and quickness should allow for a wide range of usage on offense but his hands might always be a concern for him. He's a little small and wasn't as fast or quick at the combine as expected, so Day 3 in the draft is his likely landing spot as a WR3/WR4 talent.

G-Dawg comments:   This guy IS what Justin Hardy was supposed to be when we drafted him.  Quicker than fast and has explosive element to his game.  Could bring some added skill to the PR/KR game as well.   Mainly a slot receiver and WR#4 but a guy that should make the team and settle into a role.

 

#6-186) Mike Edwards, S-Kentucky (5'10", 205lbs)

Image result for mike edwards kentucky

Versatile defensive back with above-average instincts, awareness and toughness. Edwards has the instincts and range to become an eventual starter at safety, but some evaluators might view him as a big nickel with the size to handle bigger slot receivers and the toughness to get his nose dirty in run support. Edwards is a smart, tough and consistent player who could find early starting work if he tests well.

#7-230) C.J. Conrad, TE/FB - Kentucky (6'4", 249lbs)

Image result for c.j. conrad kentucky

 

Used frequently as a wingback and was an integral part of the Kentucky running game over the last four years. Conrad has been an in-line blocker, a move blocker and has even helped out in pass protection. His technique needs work, but he's tenacious enough. 

I believe you're right brother, I have a feeling that the Falcons will take a linebacker in the first round.  Bush and Jones as our linebackers is a devestating combination. 

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I like Devin Bush but I think using a first round pick on a LB is unnecessary. Jones will be back, Campbell is playing for a contract, and I think Foye takes a leap in year 2. 

Not to mention we've done pretty well with mid round LBs. IMO there are several mid round guys that would fit nicely.

 

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Posted (edited)

22 hours ago, g-dawg said:

Lamont Gaillard is very good.  I watched every game.  As to UGA’s red zone woes, that was more a function of bunch formations and terrible playcalling. Quinnen Williams played against 3/4 of the top centers in this draft and says Gaillard the best.

As to Holyfield? I will admit taking him is more filling a need and the pick has risk - but the gamble is limited by it being a 5th rounder.

Saints couod be forced to.take Gaillard in the 2nd.

like the draft though. Ardresses curfen and future needs.

Shoukd have taken Baker in first.

Edited by ATLSlobberKnockers
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Nice draft Gdawg.

We have pretty much guaranteed a sweep the Saints every year with Jones and Bush.  Those drop off passes to Kamara are their main weapon.   

 

 

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On 3/23/2019 at 1:13 AM, Falconsfan567 said:

One from a Georgia offensive line (that in the games I watched) couldn't do squat running the ball in short-yardage situations.

Yall really have to stop looking at OL play like this. First off, I highly doubt you were watching the center by himself. Second, if this is how you look at OL play, we should have cut Jake after 2014 with that logic. Third, using the same logic, we should let Mack go since we also struggled in short yardage situations...

 

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23 hours ago, g-dawg said:

I get the argument of LB not being a major need - having said that - tell me V - what need did I not address with this draft?

You like the nose tackle Dexter Lawrence in the 1st freaking round - I draft a nose tackle where they are supposed to be drafted- in the 4th round.  Cornerback (check), Edge Rusher (check), Offensive Tackle and Center (check/check).  Then we go RB/WR(check/check) and finish with S/TE.  Added a Top 100 pick with the trade.

I totally get that this is off script pick but Devin Bush has Pro-Bowl ability and he and Deion Jones can cover grass like the dew.

As to need? Probably DeVondre Campbell’s last year in Falcon’s uni.  Both Debo and Devin can play the WILL and man the middle. Beasley played some LB as well and likely his last year.  We have a need past 2019 whether you wish to admit it or not.

I actually would be cool with this draft. I agree Bush would be filling a minor need with a first rounder again (e.g. Ridley) but I think Bush is the player people want White to be. He's "smaller" but like you said, third downs would be massively annoying for offenses because you have two LBs with safety like coverage ability ON TOP of a good secondary. 

Fully agree on taking Mack in the fourth vs Lawrence in the fourth. Mack is a stud, but is a NT, which is a mid round value. Doesn't mean you aren't getting a good player. I love Amani Oruwariye. Has the length and speed and ball skills. Only concern is his tackling in the run game. Howard and Gaillard would give us two OL with solid to high ceilings to take over their spots long term. Not bad. 

 

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27 minutes ago, vel said:

I actually would be cool with this draft. I agree Bush would be filling a minor need with a first rounder again (e.g. Ridley) but I think Bush is the player people want White to be. He's "smaller" but like you said, third downs would be massively annoying for offenses because you have two LBs with safety like coverage ability ON TOP of a good secondary. 

Fully agree on taking Mack in the fourth vs Lawrence in the fourth. Mack is a stud, but is a NT, which is a mid round value. Doesn't mean you aren't getting a good player. I love Amani Oruwariye. Has the length and speed and ball skills. Only concern is his tackling in the run game. Howard and Gaillard would give us two OL with solid to high ceilings to take over their spots long term. Not bad. 

 

Thanks Vel.  I am trying to open my mind to different possibilities as our best draft in DQ regime was the most unpredictable one in 2016 (Keanu, Debo, Hooper and Campbell).  Am I so open as to take a RB in 1st rd?  NO.  Free Safety? If there was an Earl Thomas or Eric Berry type then I would be but I don’t see one -  several that would warrant 2nd round consideration though.  Corner?  We definitely need one but not sure Greedy/Baker or Murphy are that much higher than the 2nd tier guys like Ya-Sin, Mullen, Oruwaryie, etc.

If we do go off script - like LB, C, CB or FS - I Hope we trade down a bit before doing so.

Definitely want to add DT, Edge, CB and RT in this draft in a meaningful way.

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11 hours ago, Kayoh said:

I like the first 3 picks! :)

That’s cool.  The first two guys would likely do well in your model as well - off the chart explosion measurements to go with their production on the field.  Gotta have both!

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8 hours ago, duckhoa said:

Nice draft Gdawg.

We have pretty much guaranteed a sweep the Saints every year with Jones and Bush.  Those drop off passes to Kamara are their main weapon.   

 

 

Forgot to tag you - but promised you I would do a trade-down Draft.

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9 hours ago, ATLSlobberKnockers said:

Saints couod be forced to.take Gaillard in the 2nd.

like the draft though. Ardresses curfen and future needs.

Shoukd have taken Baker in first.

Your English teacher just passed out.

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14 hours ago, Wwfalconfan said:

I believe you're right brother, I have a feeling that the Falcons will take a linebacker in the first round.  Bush and Jones as our linebackers is a devestating combination. 

I am not predicting it will happen but certainly is a possibility - not necessarily the most likely though.  To me, the most likely 1st round scenario with needs and BPA meet is at the following positions:

1) DT (Oliver, Wilkins, Lawrence)

2) RT (Ford, Taylor, Jonah Will.)

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Posted (edited)

On 3/23/2019 at 9:11 AM, Falconsfan567 said:

There's so many draft blunders by the Falcons in the 90s. This is just one of many. Just so many!! Dan Reeves absolutely loved tight ends so what does he do in his 1st draft as HC? Drafts Michael Booker with Tony Gonzalez on the board. Then there was that horrible Jeff George trade that June Jones and company made. Talk about regretful. The 49ers drafted Bryant Young with the Falcons 1994 1st round pick and then the 1st round pick the Colts got in 1996 was used to draft Marvin Harrison. Then there was the ill-fated draft up in the 1999 draft for TE Reggie Kelly where the Falcons gave the Ravens their 1st round pick in 2000. That pick ended up being Jamal Lewis and all the Ravens did was ride him and that defense to a Super Bowl win. Oh, and honorable mention is the ill-fated pick of RB Tony Smith with the 1st round pick that the Falcons got from the Packers for Brett Favre. Really? Tony Freaking Smith who played a grand total of 2 NFL seasons, and neither one very good. Jesus!! Folks just don't have a clue how bad it used to be. The Falcons drafting under TD for he most part has been amazing compared to the dark days of the 90s.

Boy was the front office of this franchise a disaster, shall I say RANK for so long. 

I have not seen anything close to the head scratchers that used to get pulled off BEFORE TD

Edited by Flyin' In DC
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15 minutes ago, Flyin' In DC said:

Boy was the front office of this franchise a disaster, shall I say RANK for so long. 

I have not seen anything close to the head scratchers that used to get pulled off under TD

You mean BEFORE TD?

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, vel said:

I actually would be cool with this draft. I agree Bush would be filling a minor need with a first rounder again (e.g. Ridley) but I think Bush is the player people want White to be. He's "smaller" but like you said, third downs would be massively annoying for offenses because you have two LBs with safety like coverage ability ON TOP of a good secondary. 

Fully agree on taking Mack in the fourth vs Lawrence in the fourth. Mack is a stud, but is a NT, which is a mid round value. Doesn't mean you aren't getting a good player. I love Amani Oruwariye. Has the length and speed and ball skills. Only concern is his tackling in the run game. Howard and Gaillard would give us two OL with solid to high ceilings to take over their spots long term. Not bad. 

 

I'm also cool with this draft.

In the scenario of taking a LB and 1T type NT/DT in this draft we either take one in round 1 with Dexter Lawrence; even in a similar trade down scenario as this and then take a mid-round LB...OR we take the better LB prospect (White is off the board first and we take Bush after trading down)...and grab a DT mid-rounds.

If its not a pass-rush high caliber DL in round 1...give me the LB instead and a run stopping interior DL later.

I must say a lot rests on being able to get a mid-roundish VB replacement like Walker according to this draft to make me more comfortable at DE...

After all, if we are committed to Grady, then DT isn't as big of a need if Senat is groomed in year 2 properly and we can always sign a vet sitting around later if we aren't comfortable to pair with the mid-round DT like Mack.

The good news is they will be tested vs our stout OL as it is today, and this draft would yield us RT options.

Superb picks...even if it doesn't pan out this way on draft day for round stock/movement on several of these guys.

Edited by Ergo Proxy

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Posted (edited)

Note, as in my theoretical trade down comments over the past couple weeks:

We could simply trade BACK UP into round 1 with our 45th pick and the extra 3rd we got from moving down in order to secure Dexter Lawrence. :tiphat:

So that would mean taking a CB or OT in a different spot if we want but this frees up the Mack selection to fill one of those positions; since DT would be solved for 5 years...it leaves CB and OT less ideal if you presume the draft falls this way, but could yield a much better interior DL than taking Mack later who would be more likely to just be a rotational fit with some upside ceiling.

If we did a move down from 14/move up again for a second 1st rounder...how could/would that ideally change a mock like this and come out even or ahead overall?

Is Dexter worth the sacrifice of the 3rd round pick? Because he basically becomes your 2nd rounder. Just food for thought. And this means only trading UP for Dexter IF he falls to 25 and lower. Gets tempting...if we've traded down and acquired a 3rd...IMO.

So after round 1 the front 7 is almost done...save for what the future at DE will be. This move then makes CB or one of the OL picks obsolete assuming we still address DE now before letting VB walk or not to get the optimal plan in place for that next year...that means DE at our remaining 3rd rounder...pushing CB or OT/OC into the 4 selections we have in rounds 4 and 5.

IMO that is slightly more ideal for fixing the Defense...as Lawrence is potentially a generational interior DT vs Mack who would be a role player. A lot depends on Senat's projected upside maybe...and of course this again presumes we are keeping Grady and need less out of a pass rush 3T higher draft pick.

If we can't trade down we either take OT or someone like Wilkins at 14...

Edited by Ergo Proxy

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On 3/23/2019 at 9:11 AM, Falconsfan567 said:

There's so many draft blunders by the Falcons in the 90s. This is just one of many. Just so many!! Dan Reeves absolutely loved tight ends so what does he do in his 1st draft as HC? Drafts Michael Booker with Tony Gonzalez on the board. Then there was that horrible Jeff George trade that June Jones and company made. Talk about regretful. The 49ers drafted Bryant Young with the Falcons 1994 1st round pick and then the 1st round pick the Colts got in 1996 was used to draft Marvin Harrison. Then there was the ill-fated draft up in the 1999 draft for TE Reggie Kelly where the Falcons gave the Ravens their 1st round pick in 2000. That pick ended up being Jamal Lewis and all the Ravens did was ride him and that defense to a Super Bowl win. Oh, and honorable mention is the ill-fated pick of RB Tony Smith with the 1st round pick that the Falcons got from the Packers for Brett Favre. Really? Tony Freaking Smith who played a grand total of 2 NFL seasons, and neither one very good. Jesus!! Folks just don't have a clue how bad it used to be. The Falcons drafting under TD for he most part has been amazing compared to the dark days of the 90s.

Thinking about doing a draft history thread for nostalgia for us old guys and eye opening results for the younger guys to understand why Falcons were sooo bad for sooo long.

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Posted (edited)

So...one could approach mock drafts with these things in mind from this analysis. Which of these players projected to start in 2019 that could be gone by 2020 or no longer starting in other words...would I want to invest the most draft capital into?

Isaiah Oliver

IF he turns out badly as a full-time starter...makes CB a likely 2019 need in that scenario...so...CB will be drafted SOMEWHERE by mid-rounds at the latest...Wilson is insurance for now...fix the DL!! and worry about CB less than your front 7 but still address it

Foye or Campbell

IF either Foye regresses and leaves something to be desired as a starter over Duke...or Campbell is gone in a year...one is possible...the other is likely...imagine if both happen...back to 1 quality starting LB!!...hence this mock draft :tiphat: 

Senat or Grady

IF either Senat does not progress to starter reps and holding down the 1T OR if Grady is not secured long-term and we face another franchise OR pay him EVEN MORE next offseason? Suddenly, both 1T and 3T are the biggest needs on defense. This is where the hope of "take Oliver" if he is at 14 becomes the ideal draft, IMO. As in...you can take a 1T later to secure rotation with Senat who already showed enough to be a solid rotation piece...but you'd need Grady insurance still...oh and Crawford is an UFA next offseason DL is our biggest weakness

VB

VB is likely gone next year; for comp picks and being overpriced vs his value to the Falcons. a 3-4 team that wants to put him at OLB for rushing the passer with "stout OL absorbing" caliber DL....they may love him...even if on a shorter 2-3 year option deal it will be more than the Falcons would offer him UNLESS he goes off in 2019...and we're left franchising him or bid war...yeah he is probably gone.

Ty

Aside from the likelihood of getting an Alex Mack groom inside and security as well from that pick to cover OG if necessary...RT is the only real concern this year IF you presume Mack plays out his contract. That means technically C is pushed a year back but it's likely C is groomed for a couple years instead. We can afford that with the extra draft capital we have. However, RT is clearly the position with positional concern. If Ty regresses with a full season of starting...we're back to RS status. The goal is he can maintain what he has shown over a season and if he does...we still need a swing/3rd OT...hence the idea of drafting one fairly high this draft.

Therefore, which positions are more likely to see the field as starters by 2020; if drafted this year?

DT/LB/DE basically are all possibilities; DT less if GJ is signed and Senat has high vote of confidence inside the org for the 1T starter snaps....then you look at DE and LB next year. Those are therefore the most likely positions to have a draft pick from 2019 starting in 2020 at the latest.

RT and CB get in just behind those things. That's why I'm willing to let OT and CB slide in draft capital order to secure LB and DT in round 1 and augment the proposed mock draft by @g-dawg

PS: Honorable mention goes to RB with Free's health and depending on how the org determines it's usefulness/need at RB. C is basically just behind RT only because Mack can be presumed to play out his contract (IMO for sake of this discussion yet still wanting to take a mid-round C to groom for 2 years)

Edited by Ergo Proxy
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