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Brett McMurphy College Football Bowl Projections for the 2019 Season

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I'm gonna keep saying it and maybe I will be dead wrong like I was with Clemson vs Bama, but I just don't see Clemson making the playoffs this year... if they do they will have one loss and be #3 or #4 depending on the field imo. I think they will lose to Texas A&M and Syracuse early in the season as they get things settled on the defensive side with replacing so many seniors and starters. Clemson being a 20+ point favorite over A&M already is absurd. They don't even know more than like 4 or 5 players on the entire defensive 2 deep.

I won't be surprised if Bama does not make it back to the playoff, because they have had extremely high coaching turnover and the most players in team history declared for the draft... but I am not betting against them because they are still loaded with talent at every position and with their 2019 schedule that's going to get them at least 10 wins imo. @Texas A&M and LSU will be the two games they have to worry about imo.

Hard to hedge against OU. I think Hurts will do very very well for them. Perhaps not to the level they have had the last 2 years, but it may shock some folks imo how well Hurts plays in that system. I think Texas wins the Big 12 this year though and makes the playoff.

My way too early top 4 prediction for the 2019 playoff is Georgia, Texas, Notre Dame, Washington.

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Texas is fool's gold. And I agree that Clemson has a lot to replace and should in NO way be preseason rank 1 over UGA or Bama,.they are still in such a weak conference and are defending champs, so I expect them in the playoffs. 

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21 minutes ago, RandomFan said:

Texas is fool's gold. And I agree that Clemson has a lot to replace and should in NO way be preseason rank 1 over UGA or Bama,.they are still in such a weak conference and are defending champs, so I expect them in the playoffs. 

Texas might be, but the Big 12 now is probably just as weak as the ACC. It's a conference with some strong parity, but I think they had 4 teams finish the regular season above .500 and it has been that way for several years running. Texas has improved each year under Herman with this core of players that will be juniors and seniors now. They beat OU in the regular season, gave them all they could handle in the Big 12 championship until OU broke out a couple big plays late in the game. I think it lines up for Texas in 2019 to make a splash.

And thanks to us they have some very positive momentum and confidence to carry over into the offseason and preparation for the season.

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3 hours ago, Carter said:

Texas might be, but the Big 12 now is probably just as weak as the ACC. It's a conference with some strong parity, but I think they had 4 teams finish the regular season above .500 and it has been that way for several years running. Texas has improved each year under Herman with this core of players that will be juniors and seniors now. They beat OU in the regular season, gave them all they could handle in the Big 12 championship until OU broke out a couple big plays late in the game. I think it lines up for Texas in 2019 to make a splash.

And thanks to us they have some very positive momentum and confidence to carry over into the offseason and preparation for the season.

I tend to think FPI is highly overrated, but there are some good points in this snippet from an article a few weeks ago: 

Quote

“A 10-win season, a memorable upset of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl and a top-five recruiting class? Yep, Texas is back, folks,” ESPN’s Mark Schlabach wrote.

ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings, meanwhile disagrees – strongly.

“Texas is not back,” writes ESPN analyst Seth Walder.

Texas comes in at No. 26 in ESPN’s new Football Power Index rankings for the 2019 season.

Here’s why, per ESPN:

One of the teams expected to generate plenty of preseason buzz is Texas. But not from FPI.

The hype that the Longhorns have finally produced is, in our model’s estimation, overstated. Tom Herman’s team checks in at No. 26 in our rankings, just missing the cut for our accompanying table (you can find them in the full rankings at the end of this post).

Though Texas took strides last season, it had the benefit of starting 13 seniors and graduate students. Even with a cumulative top-five recruiting rank over the past four seasons, the fact that Texas is returning just eight starters is very likely to be a problem.

As a result, FPI believes Texas is not one of the top 25 teams in college football and will more closely resemble Iowa State or Baylor than Oklahoma in 2019.

Texas isn’t the only hyped team for 2019 that isn’t getting any love from ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings.

Ohio State, a likely preseason top five team, is ranked outside of the top 10 in ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Buckeyes come in at No. 13 in the FPI.

 

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4 hours ago, RandomFan said:

Texas is fool's gold. And I agree that Clemson has a lot to replace and should in NO way be preseason rank 1 over UGA or Bama,.they are still in such a weak conference and are defending champs, so I expect them in the playoffs. 

agreed on Texas.  I think Clemson will be in the playoff due to what you said, but I also think by the time they play in the playoff they will be capable of beating a lot of teams due to their youth growing up.  i am predicting a UGA national title in 2019. 

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10 hours ago, RandomFan said:

Texas is fool's gold. And I agree that Clemson has a lot to replace and should in NO way be preseason rank 1 over UGA or Bama,.they are still in such a weak conference and are defending champs, so I expect them in the playoffs. 

I'm with you there Texas is not Utah before Alabama went on their Championship runs, and even back then people thought Alabama just didn't care for the game like UGA did with this one because they wanted to be in the biggest game on the biggest stage.

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Yeah I’m not high on Ohio State under Ryan Day. He’s not Urban Meyer. He’s a first time head coach that has only been at OSU for two years and has like 4 years OC experience. Maybe he’s another young phenom coach idk but remains to be seen. It is an established situation in that he’s not going to be changing much scheme-wise and OSU is loaded with talent, but I will be very surprised if they win the conference again with a true sophomore QB with no college starting experience. They will be good but they rode on the consistency/production of Haskins last year to overcome the general inconsistency of the team.

Texas lost like 4 starters of much consequence and they have recruited very well so I’m taking ESPN’s FPI write up with a grain of salt. Funny how losing a lot of seniors but returning the core of the offense built on top 5 classes can put Texas out of 25 but Clemson loses a ton of key players while recruiting small classes in the teens and they land at 1. My thoughts are not based on Texas beating a disappointed UGA team.

I think Clemson and Texas are at least equally as likely to make the playoff. Clemson has a lot to sort out and their 2 toughest games are in September. They will be a better team in November than September. Texas has recruited too well and has too much consistency in place to write off imo. I’m not saying Texas will win the national championship, but I think barring injuries they will make the playoff.

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Clemson will be there again unless they lose in the ACC Championship game. Dabo has built something special there. And they are probably the best at player development 

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3 hours ago, youngbloodz said:

Clemson will be there again unless they lose in the ACC Championship game. Dabo has built something special there. And they are probably the best at player development 

They are the best at juicing.

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