jlrfalcon

Is Grady Jarrett Really Worth 4 Times a Crawford, 75% of a Donald?

101 posts in this topic

Bottom line is he’s going to get market value here or from another team. I’m not sure he’s worth the 15-17m range but he’s going to get and we can’t let him walk.

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10 hours ago, 4dabirds said:

Grady is going to get paid; and he will continue to excell at his position. Grady has more dog in him than anyone else on the DL; Takk included. 

Exactly

Quote

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- Maybe the best way to sum up what defensive tackle Grady Jarrett means to the Atlanta Falcons is to talk to his teammates.

Ask Takk McKinley, a defensive end who plays alongside Jarrett on the line.

"Just how athletic he is," McKinley said of the 6-foot, 305-pound Jarrett. "For a big man like that to be able to move and be as agile as he is, it's very unique. You know how bad he wants it. Stats may not prove it sometimes, but when you look on film you see how he stands out regardless of two sacks, one sacks, whatever ... it's hurries, pressures. All of that matters. And he's our leader.

"We go as he goes."

Or ask six-time Pro Bowl center Alex Mack, who regularly lines up against Jarrett in practice.

"He's a great player," Mack said. "He's very powerful. He's a hard body type to block because he's low to the ground and really explosive. To get those reps and to have those things in practice is really beneficial to us and our team. And he comes off the ball hard and works hard every day. The better players you have on your team, the better they make everybody."

 

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YES, YES, YES and since we're playing compare and contrast let look at how Jarrett and Donald faired in the Super Bowl against a similar opponent (Patriots interior offensive line, Mason-Andrews-Thuney).

The Biggest Game - Super Bowl (51 & 53)

2017 Jarrett - 5 tackles (4 solo), 4 QB hits, 3 sacks, 3 TFL's

2019 Donald - 5 tackles (1 solo), 1 QB hit, 0 sacks, 0 TFL's

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3 hours ago, Monolith2001 said:

I kind of think the deal is pretty much done.  Grady will be paid and TD will work his cap magic to keep the early cap hits minimal.  I think JJ will go easy too.  I think Vic will be the issue as he may not be worth $12.8M, he probably can still get 10-12 from less cash strapped teams.

We are a week out from team's placing franchise tags and a month out from URFA if they don't tag him. I think if the Falcons were going to pay him more than the tag, the deal would already be done, and I think he is going to end up on the tag for 2019.  Who knows what happens after that.

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Your good but not great players are always the hardest ones to figure out.  Jake Matthews, Trufant, Grady.

They're all good players, but not elite, and you feel like you should be able to get them for less than you can.

People feel like you should be able to get all those guys for 10mil/yr, but you can't.

I'd say Grady's value is about 10mil (he's in a defense very suited to the UT, and that will give stats to the UT) if we had young guns champing at the bit behind him.  But we don't have stuff behind him.  When that's the case, you have to pay for your good guys, even if it's a bit too much.  So he'll get 15 or I'll be surprised.

He's a top 10 DT, and that's not going to be cheap.

 

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13 hours ago, FalconFanSince1969 said:

This board never thinks anybody is worth their contract.... We got fools still thinking Ryan didn't deserve his. 

Seriously...this x1000.  I will never understand the uproar people here have for paying players with money that isn't theirs what they are worth.

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34 minutes ago, takeitdown said:

Your good but not great players are always the hardest ones to figure out.  Jake Matthews, Trufant, Grady.

They're all good players, but not elite, and you feel like you should be able to get them for less than you can.

People feel like you should be able to get all those guys for 10mil/yr, but you can't.

I'd say Grady's value is about 10mil (he's in a defense very suited to the UT, and that will give stats to the UT) if we had young guns champing at the bit behind him.  But we don't have stuff behind him.  When that's the case, you have to pay for your good guys, even if it's a bit too much.  So he'll get 15 or I'll be surprised.

He's a top 10 DT, and that's not going to be cheap.

 

I disagree. It's about upside. Jake still had and has a long run way to get better, as we've seen. It's about trying to pay for what you can get the next five years. Jake may turn out to be a bargain if he can string together five straight years of what we just got in 2018. That's Pro Bowl/borderline All Pro stuff. Compare his deal to what the Panthers paid Matt Kalil and you'd gladly take Jake. 

Trufant was the toughest decision. He was shut down prior to injury. He was confident and playing good football in the scheme. He was ascending. Couldn't risk losing him when #1 CBs are so hard to find. You had Alford, Poole, and Collins carry that group to the SB, so you figured adding Trufant back to it gives you an absurdly deep CB group going forward. Too bad it didn't. 

Grady reminds me so much of Jurrell Casey. He's just stuck in the NFC which is loaded with DTs who keep him from Pro Bowls or All Pro votes. $15MM is the starting point, since we'd tag him before he walked free anyway. That's fine, considering he's 25 and gotten better every single season and flip flopped between 1T and 3T. I think Aaron Donald skews what a top notch DT is these days. 

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10 minutes ago, vel said:

I disagree. It's about upside. Jake still had and has a long run way to get better, as we've seen. It's about trying to pay for what you can get the next five years. Jake may turn out to be a bargain if he can string together five straight years of what we just got in 2018. That's Pro Bowl/borderline All Pro stuff. Compare his deal to what the Panthers paid Matt Kalil and you'd gladly take Jake. 

Trufant was the toughest decision. He was shut down prior to injury. He was confident and playing good football in the scheme. He was ascending. Couldn't risk losing him when #1 CBs are so hard to find. You had Alford, Poole, and Collins carry that group to the SB, so you figured adding Trufant back to it gives you an absurdly deep CB group going forward. Too bad it didn't. 

Grady reminds me so much of Jurrell Casey. He's just stuck in the NFC which is loaded with DTs who keep him from Pro Bowls or All Pro votes. $15MM is the starting point, since we'd tag him before he walked free anyway. That's fine, considering he's 25 and gotten better every single season and flip flopped between 1T and 3T. I think Aaron Donald skews what a top notch DT is these days

Good point. It's like saying John Abraham wasn't a good pass rusher because he wasn't Lawrence Taylor. 

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14 hours ago, jlrfalcon said:

Whether they resort to the franchise tag or are able to get him to a contract, the general figure expected for the Falcons to have to pay Grady Jarrett for 2019 is going to be $15+ million.

In 2018, he played in 14 games and produced 52 combined tackles (8 for loss), 6 sacks and 3 forced fumbles.  He was not selected to the Pro Bowl or on the All-Pro team for 2019.  He will turn 26 in April.

As a comparison, Jack Crawford (age 30) played in 16 games (started 11) and produced 35 combined tackles (7 for loss), 6 sacks and 1 forced fumble.  His salary for 2019 is slated to be $3.7 million.

Meanwhile, an Aaron Donald (age 27) in LA played in 16 games and produced 59 tackles, 20.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles.  He did not play in the Pro Bowl given his Superbowl commitments but was All-Pro expectedly.  His salary is going to be approximately $22.5 million.

So, the first question is whether Grady's play is really worth about 4 times more than Crawford's?  The Falcons also have Senat around whose salary for 2019 will not even be $1 million for 2019 plus this draft has an abundance of DL available.  Grady himself was a not even a high draft pick.

The next question is whether Grady is worth even 75% of what Donald is paid.  Grady's sacks were not even 1/3 of Donald's although his combined tackles and forced fumbles are roughly in line.  However, do teams really fear Grady like they do Donald?

What does Grady give us for his expected price?

I am not saying the Falcons and Grady will not be together in 2019 but really wonder if we will be looking at him in a few years much like we look at a Trufant now with a high price tag that cannot be released away.


JUST PAY THE MAN!!!  He's 100% invested in this team, and gives it his all, on every play!  And hopefully, we get him a "partner in crime", either in FA or the Draft, and together they can cause havoc in some backfields this season!!! 


 

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1 hour ago, takeitdown said:

Your good but not great players are always the hardest ones to figure out.  Jake Matthews, Trufant, Grady.

They're all good players, but not elite, and you feel like you should be able to get them for less than you can.

People feel like you should be able to get all those guys for 10mil/yr, but you can't.

I'd say Grady's value is about 10mil (he's in a defense very suited to the UT, and that will give stats to the UT) if we had young guns champing at the bit behind him.  But we don't have stuff behind him.  When that's the case, you have to pay for your good guys, even if it's a bit too much.  So he'll get 15 or I'll be surprised.

He's a top 10 DT, and that's not going to be cheap.

 

So, just curious, but what actually qualifies as "great" to you? Do you have to be #1 at your position to be great? Top 2?

cause Jarrett is easily top 10 at his, if not top 5

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22 minutes ago, vel said:

I disagree. It's about upside. Jake still had and has a long run way to get better, as we've seen. It's about trying to pay for what you can get the next five years. Jake may turn out to be a bargain if he can string together five straight years of what we just got in 2018. That's Pro Bowl/borderline All Pro stuff. Compare his deal to what the Panthers paid Matt Kalil and you'd gladly take Jake. 

Trufant was the toughest decision. He was shut down prior to injury. He was confident and playing good football in the scheme. He was ascending. Couldn't risk losing him when #1 CBs are so hard to find. You had Alford, Poole, and Collins carry that group to the SB, so you figured adding Trufant back to it gives you an absurdly deep CB group going forward. Too bad it didn't. 

Grady reminds me so much of Jurrell Casey. He's just stuck in the NFC which is loaded with DTs who keep him from Pro Bowls or All Pro votes. $15MM is the starting point, since we'd tag him before he walked free anyway. That's fine, considering he's 25 and gotten better every single season and flip flopped between 1T and 3T. I think Aaron Donald skews what a top notch DT is these days. 


My point is more that good players get paid nearly what elite players do.  You're ok paying Julio 15, but you hate paying just an average 1 receiver 90% of that.

I think Jarrett's a top 10 DT.  I just think a top 10 guy shouldn't get nearly what a premier guy gets.  I'm not pressed about it, it's just you can't use 1/2 of your cap on 4-5 good players.  If you're going to be top heavy, those guys have to be game changing players (In our case, Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Trufant, and Grady).  To me, two of those guys are great, and 3 are very good/not pro bowl level.

With unlimited money, I wouldn't care.  With a cap, you need to make sure anybody taking a big percentage of your cap is a week to week game changer.  

You pay Grady that only if you think he's going to be that.

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6 minutes ago, hjerry said:

So, just curious, but what actually qualifies as "great" to you? Do you have to be #1 at your position to be great? Top 2?

cause Jarrett is easily top 10 at his, if not top 5

Yeah, I said he's top 10.

Great is more about how much you affect the game.  Sometimes there are 6 great DTs in the league, sometimes there are 1 or 2.

My point (that I just made in a response a second ago) is these decisions aren't made in a vacuum.  If you pay guys 15M, and a QB 30M...then by the time you get to the 5th guy, you're taking up 1/2 your cap space.  For that to be the case, those guys need to be game changers game in and game out.  If they're not a guy who has to be gameplanned against, and offenses/defenses changed for, then you're better off having four 5 mil guys at that position group.

I like Grady.  I liked Matthews.  The question is...are these guys strong enough to be 1 of your 5 pillars?  Do they tilt the field enough for that?  Because you can't pay 15 people that way...you can only pay 5.

I'd pay the dude because I think we have too many holes to try to fill another one.  But there's a danger in paying good players like they're great players.

 

To add:  If you think Jarrett is a 8-10 sack a year DT the next 5 years who plugs the run also, you pay him.  If you think he's a 3-5 sack a year DT who is consistent but not special, you don't because you can find that production for less.

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Yes!  Grady has increased his production every year.  1 sack to 2 sacks to 4 sacks to 6 sacks(should have been 7).  He is also routinely one of the best run stuffers.  He is on his way to stardom.  His name is being dangled out there as a premier FA acquisition.  You absolutely have to pay for potential in this league.  Especially when its a guy who has been trending upwards since his first day on the job.  He deserves exactly what J. Matthews is making and a case can be made that he is worth more even if his position isnt valued as much.  15 million is the bar.  Id love to be right at it....18 a year is a bit much.

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39 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Good point. It's like saying John Abraham wasn't a good pass rusher because he wasn't Lawrence Taylor. 

Pretty much. It's crazy. Deion isn't Ray Lewis. Keanu isn't Polamalu. 

Pay talented players. Let sorry players go. Rinse. Repeat. 

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26 minutes ago, takeitdown said:


My point is more that good players get paid nearly what elite players do.  You're ok paying Julio 15, but you hate paying just an average 1 receiver 90% of that.

I think Jarrett's a top 10 DT.  I just think a top 10 guy shouldn't get nearly what a premier guy gets.  I'm not pressed about it, it's just you can't use 1/2 of your cap on 4-5 good players.  If you're going to be top heavy, those guys have to be game changing players (In our case, Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Trufant, and Grady).  To me, two of those guys are great, and 3 are very good/not pro bowl level.

With unlimited money, I wouldn't care.  With a cap, you need to make sure anybody taking a big percentage of your cap is a week to week game changer.  

You pay Grady that only if you think he's going to be that.

I think you're comment of "To add:  If you think Jarrett is a 8-10 sack a year DT the next 5 years who plugs the run also, you pay him." is it. Can Grady grow into that 8-10 sack guy the next five years? I think so, especially if DQ is running the show and we actually build a good DL around him. The guy gave you 6 sacks after missing multiple games. I don't think a consistently 8-10 sack guy is out of the question unless you think he's a maxed out player. 

I agree on your top five players. Ryan and Julio easily should be your top two, consistently. Matthews showed he's right there after this season and no Matthews lessens how great Matt and Julio can be so you've got to stroke that check. Trufant was disappointing and he's got a season to correct it or he won't be up there much longer. Grady is easily the best player on the DL and best player up for pay right now. But this is why I'm vehemently against paying Vic $13MM even for one year. That's such a tragic misuse of cap space. I'd rather tag Grady at $15MM than pay Vic $13MM if we're talking top five players in terms of cap hits. 

All in, Grady is trending up and I have no problem paying him based on that. 

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3 hours ago, DD: Objective Elite said:

You have to retain the top end talent that you draft and developed, if not you'll end up like the Browns.

There's lots of folks here that would be more pleased with that than you probably realize.

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4 minutes ago, vel said:

I think you're comment of "To add:  If you think Jarrett is a 8-10 sack a year DT the next 5 years who plugs the run also, you pay him." is it. Can Grady grow into that 8-10 sack guy the next five years? I think so, especially if DQ is running the show and we actually build a good DL around him. The guy gave you 6 sacks after missing multiple games. I don't think a consistently 8-10 sack guy is out of the question unless you think he's a maxed out player. 

I agree on your top five players. Ryan and Julio easily should be your top two, consistently. Matthews showed he's right there after this season and no Matthews lessens how great Matt and Julio can be so you've got to stroke that check. Trufant was disappointing and he's got a season to correct it or he won't be up there much longer. Grady is easily the best player on the DL and best player up for pay right now. But this is why I'm vehemently against paying Vic $13MM even for one year. That's such a tragic misuse of cap space. I'd rather tag Grady at $15MM than pay Vic $13MM if we're talking top five players in terms of cap hits. 

All in, Grady is trending up and I have no problem paying him based on that. 

If Jake Matthews could ever stop getting called for so many holding penalties, he'd easily be one of the best tackles in the league. He probably already is even with the holding penalties. I don't know how he compares to other guys but it seems he gets call for a lot, especially in the worst possible times.

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1 hour ago, vel said:

I think you're comment of "To add:  If you think Jarrett is a 8-10 sack a year DT the next 5 years who plugs the run also, you pay him." is it. Can Grady grow into that 8-10 sack guy the next five years? I think so, especially if DQ is running the show and we actually build a good DL around him. The guy gave you 6 sacks after missing multiple games. I don't think a consistently 8-10 sack guy is out of the question unless you think he's a maxed out player. 

I agree on your top five players. Ryan and Julio easily should be your top two, consistently. Matthews showed he's right there after this season and no Matthews lessens how great Matt and Julio can be so you've got to stroke that check. Trufant was disappointing and he's got a season to correct it or he won't be up there much longer. Grady is easily the best player on the DL and best player up for pay right now. But this is why I'm vehemently against paying Vic $13MM even for one year. That's such a tragic misuse of cap space. I'd rather tag Grady at $15MM than pay Vic $13MM if we're talking top five players in terms of cap hits. 

All in, Grady is trending up and I have no problem paying him based on that. 

Pillars right now are Ryan, Julio, Matthews, Grady, and Debo. They deserve their money. We're not in the kind of cap helI where paying Grady 15 mil/yr is impossible. I'd drop Vic a thousand times to keep Grady.

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Grady will be a lifelong Falcon just like his dad.  Hopefully by the time he is done he will have had an even more successful career.

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