jlrfalcon

Is Grady Jarrett Really Worth 4 Times a Crawford, 75% of a Donald?

101 posts in this topic

Whether they resort to the franchise tag or are able to get him to a contract, the general figure expected for the Falcons to have to pay Grady Jarrett for 2019 is going to be $15+ million.

In 2018, he played in 14 games and produced 52 combined tackles (8 for loss), 6 sacks and 3 forced fumbles.  He was not selected to the Pro Bowl or on the All-Pro team for 2019.  He will turn 26 in April.

As a comparison, Jack Crawford (age 30) played in 16 games (started 11) and produced 35 combined tackles (7 for loss), 6 sacks and 1 forced fumble.  His salary for 2019 is slated to be $3.7 million.

Meanwhile, an Aaron Donald (age 27) in LA played in 16 games and produced 59 tackles, 20.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles.  He did not play in the Pro Bowl given his Superbowl commitments but was All-Pro expectedly.  His salary is going to be approximately $22.5 million.

So, the first question is whether Grady's play is really worth about 4 times more than Crawford's?  The Falcons also have Senat around whose salary for 2019 will not even be $1 million for 2019 plus this draft has an abundance of DL available.  Grady himself was a not even a high draft pick.

The next question is whether Grady is worth even 75% of what Donald is paid.  Grady's sacks were not even 1/3 of Donald's although his combined tackles and forced fumbles are roughly in line.  However, do teams really fear Grady like they do Donald?

What does Grady give us for his expected price?

I am not saying the Falcons and Grady will not be together in 2019 but really wonder if we will be looking at him in a few years much like we look at a Trufant now with a high price tag that cannot be released away.

momak and Peyton like this

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It will happen for Grady no matter what some think. I just hope since we will have to invest so much that we will get a big baller next to him to maximize his talent.

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I am going to have to say No.  I think he deserves a nice contract, but look at the Dallas Cowboys interior line.  Yes they have Demarcus Lawrence, Gregory , Taco as the edge guys, but look at their interior.  Crawford, Woods, Malliek Collins.  As far as I am concerned, the cowboys interior line was fantastic this past year.  My point is, you can get great production from guys who aren't well known or the highest priced guys.  Its all about scheme and right fits for that scheme.  I think Dan Quinn likes bigger longer bodies on the d-line so he might transition to that.  

Lets look at the Saints D-line.  They have that horse of a man in 93, Onyemota and Rankins.  Not exactly house hold names or guys that demand a 20 million a year contract, but those guys can battle.  They got size, length and motor. 

Jarrett is a great player but what do we really want to do as a team?  Have great individual players who try to make something out of nothing with people around him or a good overall group of talented players who can run the scheme being asked of them to do.  

DogIsYourName, ltstorm2 and mqg96 like this

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Grady's has worked to get better each year, he is the heart of the dline and a every down lineman. The guy constantly get doubled and would be a wrecking ball of this line had 1 friggin guy who could constantly pressure the QB.

I have ZERO reason to doubt that he would not continue to be his best even after being paid. He's a high character, high motor player who can still get better.

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I think his true value, based on his actual production,  is probably somewhere in the 10-12 range.  However when you wait until the player is a FA prior to locking them up,  you gotta pay the price for it. Not signing him last year, I think,  was a mistake and probably cost us close to $15 mill in cap room over the life of the contract. 

 

Either way,  he'll be a Falcon and we should all be happy about it. 

Edited by RubberDucky
arrogantBEAST likes this

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Contract is both for current production, future potential, and increase pay across the league for his position. 

He’s worth $15M/yr for sure. 17 per year is stretching but not crazy. Over that I think it gets painful and he’s asking for too much. 

Edited by NeonDeion

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No he not!!! He's smaller than Aaron Donald. He found don't hey me wrong. When he's double he doesn't become a threat. Aaron Donald took 20 sacks last year knowing he was going to be doubled every play. 75% of Donald, no. 

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He is worth it if the market says he is.  But IMO the DT position isn’t one to pay QB money on.  Patriots won’t blink an eye at letting Flowers and Trent Brown hit the open market.  Their entire D Line made 17 million last year...I suspect we give that up to Jarrett alone starting in 2019

mqg96 and aer2033 like this

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He was payed a lot less than he deserved his first four years. He proved he deserved a pay rise with his onfield production. Maybe not 15M but right now is market value. 

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He's not worth 15+ million, but i believe he will get it. He's a good player, not great at this point. He may get there. He definitely deserves a nice contract, but i believe it is bad business for the falcons to over pay him. He's not even close to Donald. They need choose between paying him or Julio , not both. You can't top pay Everyone. Julio is a aging, injury prone WR and Grady is a another overvalued Falcon at this point. If we are gonna sign Grady, i would let julio play his contract out.  Though I like both players and would like to keep both. 

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I kind of think the deal is pretty much done.  Grady will be paid and TD will work his cap magic to keep the early cap hits minimal.  I think JJ will go easy too.  I think Vic will be the issue as he may not be worth $12.8M, he probably can still get 10-12 from less cash strapped teams.

Cole World likes this

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Donald doesn't play the same position as Jarrett anymore. He's a 3-4 DE. You can say in that defense he plays more of a DT role and that can be true, but he doesn't directly compare to Jarrett anymore. Donald compares more with JJ Watt who does make over $20 million a year and like Donald is worth every penny. 

If Quinn thought he could run a line this year with a bunch of lower paid guys and be successful he would. But that won't happen because the team doesn't have that roster. Crawford played so well this year, because A) he was healthy and B he played next to Jarrett. If they can get someone else in there in the draft and Senat can step up and replace McClain's production (which shouldn't be hard) than the team will be fine. 

We don't even know right now. The Falcons might just let him walk. 

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