Mock Offseason

[atlanta_dude]

I want to start by saying, I don't think we plan on any major free agency signings. I think the vast majority of our cap room goes to retaining our players with the exception of a patented outside of the box TD trade this year. My offseason retains our top talent, gives depth & young talent at our biggest needs, and sets us up – cap wise- for our free agents next year. Even then .. with these moves, cap space will be tight.

 

Trade: Falcons trade a 2019 6th & 2020 pick to the Miami Dolphins for Josh Sitton. Say hello to this year's version of Andy Levitre. The Dolphins aren't going to be competitive and they know it. This gives them draft capital while clearing the payroll. Falcons get their new starting LG on a contract with 1 year left. He'll fall off the books next year while giving us time to groom our future starting LG (see draft later).

 

Resign: Saimbrelo, Irvin, Jarrett, Poole, B Carter and Bethel. Saimbrelo is an excellent backup swing tackle. Irvin can play an important role to providing depth and veteran leadership to Vic & Takk. Fusco is not a resigning, but I do believe he stays for 1 more year. Good depth at value.

 

Extend: V Beasley & J Jones. Beasley I think will be in the range of 3-4 years @ 8-10/year. I believe with better DTs his production will pick up. I may not see it, but it seems our coaches feel there is still plenty of potential. Plus, there aren’t any free agent DE’s that would replace his value for less $.

 

Cut: B Reed, R Alford, M Bryant. I don't think we make any other notable cuts, unless ...

 

Potential FA: I do think we make a push for a guy like Daryl Williams (RT). If we are able to sign him, Schraeder is a post June 1 cut. If we cannot (this is my opinion of how it will play out unfortunately), I think Schraeder takes a pay cut. Either way, with an improved interior (Sitton) + competitive depth (see Saimbrelo + draft), the RT position will improve next year.

 

FA: Any other FA moves will be depth at best ... more than likely just filling out the roster on minimum contracts.

 

These moves still leave the roster with plenty of holes: Base DE, DT, LB Depth, CB, WR Depth, RB, FB, OT, OG. We cannot fill out every hole in the draft, but I believe the draft will fall where we can go BPA and still fill these primary needs (ideal way to draft).

 

Draft
1) C Wilkins - DT. This guy is a top 10 talent, but due to teams that draft by need I think we luck into him falling to us. BPA at a position of need. Other potential: Jonah Williams, Ed Oliver & Jeffrey Simmons. Jonah will be gone. Like it or not, Simmons isn't going to be a Falcon due to his past. Oliver I strongly considered, but there is just something watching him play that makes me question his ability to translate the NFL. I have no doubt that Wilkins will be a player. (hot take: Clemson's DLine's best NFL players will be: 1) Wilkins 2)Bryant 3)Lawrence 4)Ferrell)

 

2) Rock Ya Sin – CB. Top 50 player … I don’t care what a lot of these draft boards are saying. Even though he doesn’t have the experience at the top level of college football, he’ll be a baller. I believe the Falcons view CB as a bigger need than most. Cutting our arguably best cover corner and leaving it in the hands of a 2^nd year player? Not to mention is Tru going to still be starting caliber… This is a BPA pick that provides depth and competition at a position that Quinn views as vital to the success of a defense. Other options considered: OT/OG. There are a few names that I could see us looking into, but in terms of 2^nd round OL vs 3/4/5 round OL, I don’t see as big of a gap in talent as I do in CB from rounds 2 to later.  

 

3) Tytus Howard – OT. Good size, footwork, and showed well in Senior Bowl against higher level competition. He’s not going to be a day 1 starter. Keeping Schraeder on for a year (assuming we don’t sign Williams), he can take the year to develop his craft and take over next year when we cut Schraeder for cap purposes. If Tytus is gone, based on who the Falcons were linked to, I could see us taking a guy like Trey Pipkins. Unfortunately I couldn’t find any tape on Trey so I will have to withhold opinion.

 

4) Wes Hills – RB. IMO huge sleeper. He may have gone to a small school, but he is a stud. Total package … vision, cutting ability, and power. May not have the top line speed TECO does, but he is fast enough. I’ll be confident in Ito & Wes to take over RB if Devonte goes down.

 

4-Comp) Jon Ledbetter – DE. Base DE to replace Shelby. I’ve always felt he was misused at UGA (and I’m a Tech fan). He showed more pass rushing ability at the Senior Bowl than I was expecting. I think he is very raw there, but his ability to set the edge will be there day 1. Excellent value here. I believe post-combine he’ll be viewed closer to an early 4^th to maybe late 3^rd round pick.

 

5) Alex Bar – OG. We luck out here, assuming he comes back healthy from his injury. If he was healthy this year, he’s a 2^nd-3^rd round prospect … more than likely  2^nd. Picking up Sitton for the year will give him the time to heal up and take over LG when Sitton is gone next year.

 

5-Comp) Jazz Ferguson – WR. Sleeper pick. The Ferguson brother that is not a 1st to 3rd round prospect --- only due to issues with school. He ended up at a small school, but certainly showed out (watch his game film vs Texas A&M to see him go against P5 competition). I see NFL size, speed, hands and willingness to block. Route running needs some cleaning up. Will take this year to be acclimated to NFL speed and be our #3 receiver next year behind Julio & Ridely. Sanu is a cap casualty next year.

 

6) Traded.

 

7) Trevon Wesco – FB/H-back. IMO this guy was completely off my radar until the Senior Bowl. And that’s when they tried him out at FB. If he can shed a few pounds and pick up a little speed, this guy could be a championship level puzzle piece. His pass blocking will be elite for a FB which improves our OL. He’s a TE at heart ... he can run routes and catch. You can’t count on him just to block if you are playing defense. Goal line game changer.

 

Depth Chart (Bolded names are starters)

DE: Takk // Vic // Irvin // Ledbetter // Means

DT: Jarrett // Wilkins //Crawford // Senat  // Zimmer

LB: Olukon // Jones // Campbell // Riley // Carter

CB: Tru // Oliver // Poole // Ya Sin // Wreh-Wilson

S: Neal // Allen // Kazee // Neasman

 

OT: Mathews // Schraeder // Saimbrello // Howard

OG: Sitton // Sweitzer // Fusco // A Bars

C: Mack

TE: Hooper // Paulsen // Saubert

WR: Julio // Sanu // Ridley // Ferguson // Gage // Hall

RB: Freeman // Ito // W Hills // B Hill

FB: T Wesco

QB: Ryan // Benkert or Vet FA

A little different than what I've seen thrown around out there, but I think something like this is the right path to take. Sets us up talent & cap wise for not only this year. IMO the draft every year should be based on cap & team needs the next year w/ small FA moves substituting for more current year needs ... that's the way to consistently get ahead.

[Knight of God]

Wow!!! I love it!

[djbrough]

This is awesome. Great job.

[datchrisb1]

Okay, just wanting to be corrected here.

We could not protect the QB this year. Our head coach says Mack and Matthews were the only one's doing there job this year, scrub the rest. Anemic on offense. Can't do anything if you can't execute and control the LOS. And the solution is too keep Scweitzwer, Sambreilo, and Schraeder as starters, potential starters, bring in a rookie 3rd round small school guy, replace Levitre with "another Levitre", and role with that. It could work, we've already seen what we have in the guys we are retaining, I'm hoping Schraeder was an off year. If last year repeats this year, we will still need to reinvest in the O line to protect Matt Ryan and run the ball adequately. Still anemic on offense. Howard could be a hit, could not, small school guys still need more time to develop. And to me the real window is this year and next year, don't have time right now to groom the LG of the future in Bar. The way the contracts are on defense, Julio isn't getting any younger, Ryan in that prime window, window is 2 years maybe 3 to me.

Edited February 12, 2019 by datchrisb1

[The Peregrine]

3 hours ago, datchrisb1 said:

Okay, just wanting to be corrected here.

We could not protect the QB this year. Our head coach says Mack and Matthews were the only one's doing there job this year, scrub the rest. Anemic on offense. Can't do anything if you can't execute and control the LOS. And the solution is too keep Scweitzwer, Sambreilo, and Schraeder as starters, potential starters, bring in a rookie 3rd round small school guy, replace Levitre with "another Levitre", and role with that. It could work, we've already seen what we have in the guys we are retaining, I'm hoping Schraeder was an off year. If last year repeats this year, we will still need to reinvest in the O line to protect Matt Ryan and run the ball adequately. Still anemic on offense. Howard could be a hit, could not, small school guys still need more time to develop. And to me the real window is this year and next year, don't have time right now to groom the LG of the future in Bar. The way the contracts are on defense, Julio isn't getting any younger, Ryan in that prime window, window is 2 years maybe 3 to me.

I liked the mock as well but this just made TOO much contradictory sense.

[vel]

You had me sold at trading for Sitton. Never thought about that but Sitton would easily solidify the left side of the line if he's healthy. The whole thing makes sense and would be a home run. 

[atlanta_dude]

15 hours ago, datchrisb1 said:

Okay, just wanting to be corrected here.

We could not protect the QB this year. Our head coach says Mack and Matthews were the only one's doing there job this year, scrub the rest. Anemic on offense. Can't do anything if you can't execute and control the LOS. And the solution is too keep Scweitzwer, Sambreilo, and Schraeder as starters, potential starters, bring in a rookie 3rd round small school guy, replace Levitre with "another Levitre", and role with that. It could work, we've already seen what we have in the guys we are retaining, I'm hoping Schraeder was an off year. If last year repeats this year, we will still need to reinvest in the O line to protect Matt Ryan and run the ball adequately. Still anemic on offense. Howard could be a hit, could not, small school guys still need more time to develop. And to me the real window is this year and next year, don't have time right now to groom the LG of the future in Bar. The way the contracts are on defense, Julio isn't getting any younger, Ryan in that prime window, window is 2 years maybe 3 to me.

I do think you make a few good points here, but my issue with your position is the concept of a window. I don't believe that you have to have a window if you strategically plan & manage your team. I'll try to go through your post piece-by-piece.

1) Sitton is better than Levitre ever was. If he is healthy, we potentially have a Pro Bowl LT, LG and C. This immediately results in improved line play -- across the board.

2) Outside of Jonah Williams and maybe Cody Ford, there isn't a guard in this draft that I will trust over a multi-year starter Scweitzer. Long term? Maybe, but the odds of a guard coming in and outperforming Wes are slim.

3) I mentioned targeting a guy like Daryl Williams to replace Schraeder. My brain says we get outbid though. I do think Schraeder bounces back some. Saimbrello + Howard + improved TE & FB blocking + improved coaching scheme will improve the overall play of the line as well.

I've seen a lot of opinions about signing a guy like Saffold + Trent Brown. I don't understand how you make those moves without sacrificing key players ... there wouldn't be enough cap space for a competitive team outside of the 2 years you stated. More realistically, you can only sign one. Say you sign Brown only. You are still starting Scweitzer + a Rookie Guard or Fusco. Say you Sign Saffold. You are still starting Sweitzer + Schraeder. My point is, it will take multiple moves to fix our OL, and i'm not willing to sacrifice our future for a potential window.

[AtlantaFanatic]

I respect realistic mocks and this one is very realistic.Good job. I just would be very unsatisfied with our O-line if this was the way our offseason went. We absolutely cannot win a Superbowl unless we get very good solutions at 2 of the 3 spots on the O-line that we are weak at. 

[datchrisb1]

On 2/12/2019 at 6:58 PM, atlanta_dude said:

I do think you make a few good points here, but my issue with your position is the concept of a window. I don't believe that you have to have a window if you strategically plan & manage your team. I'll try to go through your post piece-by-piece.

1) Sitton is better than Levitre ever was. If he is healthy, we potentially have a Pro Bowl LT, LG and C. This immediately results in improved line play -- across the board.

2) Outside of Jonah Williams and maybe Cody Ford, there isn't a guard in this draft that I will trust over a multi-year starter Scweitzer. Long term? Maybe, but the odds of a guard coming in and outperforming Wes are slim.

3) I mentioned targeting a guy like Daryl Williams to replace Schraeder. My brain says we get outbid though. I do think Schraeder bounces back some. Saimbrello + Howard + improved TE & FB blocking + improved coaching scheme will improve the overall play of the line as well.

I've seen a lot of opinions about signing a guy like Saffold + Trent Brown. I don't understand how you make those moves without sacrificing key players ... there wouldn't be enough cap space for a competitive team outside of the 2 years you stated. More realistically, you can only sign one. Say you sign Brown only. You are still starting Scweitzer + a Rookie Guard or Fusco. Say you Sign Saffold. You are still starting Sweitzer + Schraeder. My point is, it will take multiple moves to fix our OL, and i'm not willing to sacrifice our future for a potential window.

People form there own opinions, but I think there are a lot more options at both 1 and 2 beside Williams and Ford that have the potential to be better than Scweitzer or even Schraeder. Now, personally I'm one to believe last year was an off/injury year for Schraeder. But even still we have Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford, Jonah Williams, and Andrew Dilliard as far as first round value. We pick 14, and no I'm not a Greg Little fan. At guard it wouldn't surprise me if I saw Chris Lindstrom for us at 14, not pounding the table, but it wouldn't shock me. He would fit perfect here and is extremely underrated. Elgin Jenkins could provide us solid guard play as well as our future center at 14. We also have a great number of options in the second at both guard and tackle. Lindstrom could fall, Garrett Bradbury, Eric McCoy, Michael Deiter, Max Scharping, and Michael Jordan (maybe) are the ones I like. Not as much of a fan of a lot of tackles in the second but I do love Dalton Risner and think people are sleeping on Isaiah Prince. To me all of these are as close to a guarantee better than Schweitzer or Schraeder as it gets without actually seeing them in uniform at the next level. And that's not to mention guys later who I think could be a step up like the Penn State guys.McGovern and Bates. My point is there are just as much options if not more along the O-line when compared to the D-line early. Probably more options as far as offensive line 3rd round and up.

A team always has a window, it depends on different factors but most of the time is the QB and whatever that primary supporting cast is. Brother there is always a window, and the window AKA PRIME OPPORTUNITY is all that matters, reason a lot of teams aren't successful sometimes. They miss that "window". Brett Favre and the Vikings comes to mind. When in that window, there is no "future". Yes, you sacrifice whatever pipe dream future you have to get through that window, yes you do that if you want championships, simply because A. injuries, salary cap, chemistry, LIFE, etc... so many factors. B. The "future" is always a pipe dream. The future as far as everything, everything works this way. You may want a Mercedes in 5 years, get ready to wait 5+ years. My point is, doing what you need to do now, trying to get through that window now, is never sacrificing your future, because there is no future if you aren't where you need to be now, right in front of that window. The best teams stand in front of that window and sustain that. If we need to trade Julio to get in front of that window he needs to be on first thing smoking out of ATL. Straight up. Not saying I want that, just an example.

If we bring in someone via free agency, it's going to be along the D line. TD called the O-line expensive, things that are expensive usually aren't worth there value. Don't see them putting big money in the offensive front. I think we are investing draft picks primarily at the O-line and the position next to Grady can be serviced with a guy later in the draft if they go that route.

Edited February 15, 2019 by datchrisb1

[datchrisb1]

On 2/15/2019 at 5:59 PM, datchrisb1 said:

People form there own opinions, but I think there are a lot more options at both 1 and 2 beside Williams and Ford that have the potential to be better than Scweitzer or even Schraeder. Now, personally I'm one to believe last year was an off/injury year for Schraeder. But even still we have Jawaan Taylor, Cody Ford, Jonah Williams, and Andrew Dilliard as far as first round value. We pick 14, and no I'm not a Greg Little fan. At guard it wouldn't surprise me if I saw Chris Lindstrom for us at 14, not pounding the table, but it wouldn't shock me. He would fit perfect here and is extremely underrated. Elgin Jenkins could provide us solid guard play as well as our future center at 14. We also have a great number of options in the second at both guard and tackle. Lindstrom could fall, Garrett Bradbury, Eric McCoy, Michael Deiter, Max Scharping, and Michael Jordan (maybe) are the ones I like. Not as much of a fan of a lot of tackles in the second but I do love Dalton Risner and think people are sleeping on Isaiah Prince. To me all of these are as close to a guarantee better than Schweitzer or Schraeder as it gets without actually seeing them in uniform at the next level. And that's not to mention guys later who I think could be a step up like the Penn State guys.McGovern and Bates. My point is there are just as much options if not more along the O-line when compared to the D-line early. Probably more options as far as offensive line 3rd round and up.

A team always has a window, it depends on different factors but most of the time is the QB and whatever that primary supporting cast is. Brother there is always a window, and the window AKA PRIME OPPORTUNITY is all that matters, reason a lot of teams aren't successful sometimes. They miss that "window". Brett Favre and the Vikings comes to mind. When in that window, there is no "future". Yes, you sacrifice whatever pipe dream future you have to get through that window, yes you do that if you want championships, simply because A. injuries, salary cap, chemistry, LIFE, etc... so many factors. B. The "future" is always a pipe dream. The future as far as everything, everything works this way. You may want a Mercedes in 5 years, get ready to wait 5+ years. My point is, doing what you need to do now, trying to get through that window now, is never sacrificing your future, because there is no future if you aren't where you need to be now, right in front of that window. The best teams stand in front of that window and sustain that. If we need to trade Julio to get in front of that window he needs to be on first thing smoking out of ATL. Straight up. Not saying I want that, just an example.

If we bring in someone via free agency, it's going to be along the D line. TD called the O-line expensive, things that are expensive usually aren't worth there value. Don't see them putting big money in the offensive front. I think we are investing draft picks primarily at the O-line and the position next to Grady can be serviced with a guy later in the draft if they go that route.