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Time For Vic Beasley to Go


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Just now, TheDirtyWordII said:

So a 4 year $28-32M deal?  Obviously not fully guaranteed...

So in essence, a 3 year, $16-19M extension since he's guaranteed $12.81M in 2019?  He's just going to forgo his bite at the free agency windfall, because...?

1. I don't think Vic would be offered an incredible amount more in FA tbh. That's a myth on this board. He's had 2 very sub par seasons and isn't highly regarded in the NFL.

2. He loves the Falcons

3. The Falcons would probably have to guarantee a little more than typical

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2 minutes ago, Jesus said:

Who?

Find the DE who has had 29.5 sacks in the past four years who can be signed for less than 7 million a year?

Stop. Vic has one season that severely spikes his stats. It's outrageous at this point to even include it in his averages. He has a 25% chance of ever getting back to that level based on the data we've seen. Subtract that 1 year and he has 14 in 3 years. 

The overrating needs to stop. It's time to accept reality.

Edited by MD-FalconFan13
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It's so funny watching people struggle to put Beasley's production in context with the rest the league over the last couple of decades. 

Among defensive ends drafted since 2000, Beasley is 30th in sacks through 4 seasons. He's pretty much indistinguishable from the following players:

Whitney Mercilus, Brian Orakpo, Olivier Vernon, JPP, and Cam Jordan. 

The fact that Vic Beasley isnt Von Miller doesnt mean he's worthless. He's outproduced the vast majority of his draft class peers and most of the edge guys drafted in the two seasons before he was drafted. 

That doesnt mean he's a "keep at all costs" guy....but the disconnect between his contributions and his reputation around here is pretty crazy. 

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Just now, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Stop. Vic has one season that severely spikes his stats. It's outrageous at this point to even include it in his averages. He has a 25% chance of ever getting back to that level based on the data we've seen. Subtract that 1 year and he has 14.5 in 3 years. 

The overrating needs to stop. It's time to accept reality.

Even if you subtract out that one year he is still out produced most of the pass rushers in the 14,15 AND 16 draft classes.

 

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1 minute ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Sanu has 2,194 yards and 13 TDs in 3 years....
That's 700+ yds and just about 5 TDs a year. That's good production for a #2 wideout. 

Vic on the has 5 sacks a season outside of his one aberration year. He's proven to not be capable of being a primary or secondary pass rusher. The math is really not hard. Vic has had more than enough time.

I'm not arguing Sanu's value per se, I like him a lot, but 7mil for what he does when Ridley is on the roster isn't cheap. Vic plays a similarly expensive position. I still think the whole 5 sack thing is partly due to coaching. Vic was promised full time pass rushing duties and wasn't given them. He's better than he's shown. I don't think 7-8mil is an overpay for him tbh.

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Just now, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Stop. Vic has one season that severely spikes his stats. It's outrageous at this point to even include it in his averages. He has a 25% chance of ever getting back to that level based on the data we've seen. Subtract that 1 year and he has 14 in 3 years. 

The overrating needs to stop. It's time to accept reality.

This isnt how this works, man. 

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1 hour ago, capologist said:

If DQ believes he can get the double digit sack version of Beasley back then it's a no brainer to keep him.  We'll see...

Am not ready to give up on Vrex yet as well...he has the speed. His problem is he has to figure out how to overcome his baby arms, and improve his countermoves.

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2 minutes ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

Stop. Vic has one season that severely spikes his stats. It's outrageous at this point to even include it in his averages. He has a 25% chance of ever getting back to that level based on the data we've seen. Subtract that 1 year and he has 14 in 3 years. 

The overrating needs to stop. It's time to accept reality.

So no one else, then?

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1 minute ago, Falcanuck said:

1. I don't think Vic would be offered an incredible amount more in FA tbh. That's a myth on this board. He's had 2 very sub par seasons and isn't highly regarded in the NFL.

2. He loves the Falcons

3. The Falcons would probably have to guarantee a little more than typical

Robert Alford sucked this past year, and never made first-team All-Pro.  He just got $13M+ guaranteed as a 30-year old CB who hasn't intercepted a meaningful pass since the SB.

Beasley is 26...two years off a first-team All-Pro season, and no matter how much he loves the Falcons, he loves his family more.  And so the desire and need to want to get top dollar when he's eligible to is going to supercede what uniform he wears.

...and so if all of the above is true, where we want get this guy on a bargain, why would we want to increase the guarantee and the years, since it's incumbent upon the Falcons to come up with a long term deal that Beasley would consider (to forgo $13M) or simply rescind the 5th year?

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1 minute ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

This isnt how this works, man. 

In fairness, you can't just use someone's entire body of work and not use context. Robert Quinn had like 20 sacks one year and 4-5 the past few. Doesn't mean you can just group his season's together and call him one of the best pass rushers heading into 2019.

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1 hour ago, R_The_Great said:

Well if we weren't ****** around with our offense the past 2 years and have Beasley rotate from LB to DE, I think Beasley could have produced.  In 2016, he was the sack leader but of course, Falcons do what Falcons do and go away from their strengths.  Its all on Arthur Blank, Thomas Dimitroff and Quinn.  

After the Petrino era, Mike Smith era and the heart break losses, this team doesn't realize how crucial hiring coaches are??  Wasted 2 good years of this team by hiring an offensive coordinator who still doesn't have a place in the COLLEGE ranks.  We hired a defensive coordinator who probably will go to the College ranks.   

We have offensive linemen who wouldn't be on any other NFL roster. 

What does that?  We are forcing things on this team that are not even NFL caliber

You never cease to amaze with the fairy tales you come up with. I agree with Larry, you don't actually watch the games, clearly.

Sark was offered the Arizona job and he declined, and MM is in the running for the Cinn bengals DC job.

Beasley only played LB becuase of injuries in 2017....you know what, forget it. You obviously don't understand.

 

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5 minutes ago, R_The_Great said:

Thats great on paper, but again, if he was so great, why isn't he a head coach in the NFL?  Why were all these previous offensive coordinators hired for Head coaching jobs but Sark has to go back to NCAA?  Sark got the keys to one of the hottest cars in the world and he drove it into a Tree

wut? 

He "got the keys to one of the hottest cars in the world" and had two more above-average seasons.....if you think the 17/18 offenses were "driven into a tree" you need to watch more football. 

Who knows why one person gets a HC deal while another doesnt. Vic Fangio never got any HC run until this year...he's been a stellar defensive coach for years. 

You need to work on this seemingly endless fountain of misplaced rage you have. "ZOMG Y ISNT FUTBALL MAN DOING WHAT I WANT" isnt healthy for anyone involved. 

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1 minute ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

It's so funny watching people struggle to put Beasley's production in context with the rest the league over the last couple of decades. 

Among defensive ends drafted since 2000, Beasley is 30th in sacks through 4 seasons. He's pretty much indistinguishable from the following players:

Whitney Mercilus, Brian Orakpo, Olivier Vernon, JPP, and Cam Jordan. 

The fact that Vic Beasley isnt Von Miller doesnt mean he's worthless. He's outproduced the vast majority of his draft class peers and most of the edge guys drafted in the two seasons before he was drafted. 

That doesnt mean he's a "keep at all costs" guy....but the disconnect between his contributions and his reputation around here is pretty crazy. 

7 years of Orakpo's 10 years he's had 6 or more sacks.
4 years of Mercilus's 7 years he's had 6 or more sacks.
6 years of Vernon's 7 years he's had 6 or more sacks.
6 of JPP's 9 years he's had 6 or more sacks.
7 of Cam's 8 years he's had 6 or more sacks.

1 of Vic's 4 years he's had 6 or more sacks. 

He's just not a consistent threat. Add that to the fact he's trash against the run and I really don't get any reason to keep him. 

 

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2 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Robert Alford sucked this past year, and never made first-team All-Pro.  He just got $13M+ guaranteed as a 30-year old CB who hasn't intercepted a meaningful pass since the SB.

Beasley is 26...two years off a first-team All-Pro season, and no matter how much he loves the Falcons, he loves his family more.  And so the desire and need to want to get top dollar when he's eligible to is going to supercede what uniform he wears.

...and so if all of the above is true, where we want get this guy on a bargain, why would we want to increase the guarantee and the years, since it's incumbent upon the Falcons to come up with a long term deal that Beasley would consider (to forgo $13M) or simply rescind the 5th year?

I don't care about Robert Alford. He's a CB. One that has played almost every snap since entering the league. Beasley has been a productive rotational rusher for one season.

As for the bolded, no it doesn't. That's not how everyone thinks.

And I don't see an issue with guaranteeing more for a young player. I'd rather higher guarantees, lower salary if I were a player, myself.

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1 minute ago, Falcanuck said:

In fairness, you can't just use someone's entire body of work and not use context. Robert Quinn had like 20 sacks one year and 4-5 the past few. Doesn't mean you can just group his season's together and call him one of the best pass rushers heading into 2019.

No one is calling Vic Beasley "one of the best pass rushers" 

Beasley's production to date is both the entire body of work AND the context. Theres no context that takes credit away from a player for being a first team all pro. 

And the Robert Quinn thing sorta hints at another bigger point here: that sort of production GETS GUYS PAID. Whether its 6 sacks a year or 15 one year and 6 the next, pass rush production gets people paid. 

That doesnt mean WE have to pay him. That doesnt mean you give him a blank check. That doesnt mean there arent issues in his game. 

It does mean that the general "derp he's a bust kick him to da curb" approach fails to take account of what happens in the league, how pass rush development frequently happens, etc. 

It's treating a pretty complicated problem far too simplistically. 

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8 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

I don't care about Robert Alford. He's a CB. One that has played almost every snap since entering the league. Beasley has been a productive rotational rusher for one season.

As for the bolded, no it doesn't. That's not how everyone thinks.

And I don't see an issue with guaranteeing more for a young player. I'd rather higher guarantees, lower salary if I were a player, myself.

You may not care about Robert Alford, but you should care about basic concepts like supply and demand in the context of this discussion.

In addition, let's look at this from Beasley's POV.

Option #1: Falcons and him are content to let him play out 2019 under the current situation.  Beasley resolves to have the best season of his career so he can set himself up for the biggest payday of his life...from whomever.

Option #2: Falcons rescind the option...he's now a FA.  And while you may not care about Robert Alford, he was guaranteed nothing in 2019...now he's guaranteed $13.5M.  So economically, there was a better market for him once he was released than when he was with the Falcons.  Are you saying this doesn't apply to Beasley?

Option #3: Falcons approach Beasley with a 'bargain' contract offer.  Does Beasley bet on himself, or take a reduced deal?  My thinking is that if you look at Option #1, Beasley wants to have the best year of his career in 2019.  If he does, he sets himself up for a $15-17M/year deal.  And the difference between $7-8M v $15-17M and what you take IS how everyone thinks.

Option #4: The Falcons blow Beasley away with a long term offer right now.  Does anyone want that?

So let's put options out there that don't treat Beasley like a piece of property.  Right now, Beasley has all the leverage.

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26 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

You may not care about Robert Alford, but you should care about basic concepts like supply and demand in the context of this discussion.

In addition, let's look at this from Beasley's POV.

Option #1: Falcons and him are content to let him play out 2019 under the current situation.  Beasley resolves to have the best season of his career so he can set himself up for the biggest payday of his life...from whomever.

Option #2: Falcons rescind the option...he's now a FA.  And while you may not care about Robert Alford, he was guaranteed nothing in 2019...now he's guaranteed $13.5M.  So economically, there was a better market for him once he was released than when he was with the Falcons.  Are you saying this doesn't apply to Beasley?

Option #3: Falcons approach Beasley with a 'bargain' contract offer.  Does Beasley bet on himself, or take a reduced deal?  My thinking is that if you look at Option #1, Beasley wants to have the best year of his career in 2019.  If he does, he sets himself up for a $15-17M/year deal.  And the difference between $7-8M v $15-17M and what you take IS how everyone thinks.

Option #4: The Falcons blow Beasley away with a long term offer right now.  Does anyone want that?

So let's put options out there that don't treat Beasley like a piece of property.  Right now, Beasley has all the leverage.

I get what you are saying, but let's be honest, these players are nothing but a piece of property to the owners.  This is a business at the end of the day, and all these players are interchangeable pieces.

I am team option 3.  Bring him back on a reduced contract and let him earn his future payout.

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52 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

wut? 

He "got the keys to one of the hottest cars in the world" and had two more above-average seasons.....if you think the 17/18 offenses were "driven into a tree" you need to watch more football

Who knows why one person gets a HC deal while another doesnt. Vic Fangio never got any HC run until this year...he's been a stellar defensive coach for years. 

You need to work on this seemingly endless fountain of misplaced rage you have. "ZOMG Y ISNT FUTBALL MAN DOING WHAT I WANT" isnt healthy for anyone involved. 

Or watch football in the first place...

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11 minutes ago, athell said:

I get what you are saying, but let's be honest, these players are nothing but a piece of property to the owners.  This is a business at the end of the day, and all these players are interchangeable pieces.

I am team option 3.  Bring him back on a reduced contract and let him earn his future payout.

I don't know how people don't get the concept of Beasley saying 'no' to Option #3 and having so many better options available to him.

This is literally a 'because real estate people are stupid Woody' situation.

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20 minutes ago, The Smart One said:

If we rescinded Beasley’s option we’d still be in line for a comp pick correct?

 

17 minutes ago, athell said:

As long as he is not cut.

I'm not positive about this. I dont think you get comp picks for declining an option. Can't remember where I read that but for some reason I dont think we would. 

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52 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

You may not care about Robert Alford, but you should care about basic concepts like supply and demand in the context of this discussion.

In addition, let's look at this from Beasley's POV.

Option #1: Falcons and him are content to let him play out 2019 under the current situation.  Beasley resolves to have the best season of his career so he can set himself up for the biggest payday of his life...from whomever.

Option #2: Falcons rescind the option...he's now a FA.  And while you may not care about Robert Alford, he was guaranteed nothing in 2019...now he's guaranteed $13.5M.  So economically, there was a better market for him once he was released than when he was with the Falcons.  Are you saying this doesn't apply to Beasley?

Option #3: Falcons approach Beasley with a 'bargain' contract offer.  Does Beasley bet on himself, or take a reduced deal?  My thinking is that if you look at Option #1, Beasley wants to have the best year of his career in 2019.  If he does, he sets himself up for a $15-17M/year deal.  And the difference between $7-8M v $15-17M and what you take IS how everyone thinks.

Option #4: The Falcons blow Beasley away with a long term offer right now.  Does anyone want that?

So let's put options out there that don't treat Beasley like a piece of property.  Right now, Beasley has all the leverage.

tldr 

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