2019 Offseason & Mock Draft

[FalconsIn2012]

First one I’ve ever done so there will be errors and omissions.  So go easy.  This is an outside the box Mock and apparently will tick most off.  But it fills our needs and makes us a much more physical football team.  Focus: both trenches.

I will start this off with the bad news.  Grady Jarrett is leaving town. 

LEAVING:

• Cuts: Schraeder, Alford, Fusco, Bryant (unfortunate), Harris & Reed.

Savings: $32,000,000 (this includes the 4 million in savings from Beasley’s extension)

CAP Room: $32,000,000 + $26,000,000 = $58,000,000

ADDITIONS:

•  RFA: Michael Pierce ( 5 years, 60 million) - DT:  pay the Ravens 2nd round tender on him and plug him next to Oliver in 2019.  At 6’0, 340 lbs he is unmovable in the middle.  Ravens fans don’t think the organization will pony up elite DT money for Pierce.

• FA: Trenton Brown (5 years, 60 million) - at 6’8 and 380 lbs, this behemoth has the athleticism to play in the ZBS and flat out maul his opponent in short yardage situations.  What he did to KC’s edge rushers was a marvel.  To afford Brown, Mack will be cut in 2020 and his $11 million will go to Brown.

•  FA: Quinton Spain - OG (3 years, 12 million).  Was a solid B player until a shoulder injury derailed his season.  Physical and mean, he will fit nicely between Mack and Matthews and is good value 

• Sign Ty Sambrailo: 2 years, 3.5 mill

• Sign Beasley or Irvin to 3 year 24 million dollar contract

• Julio extension will reduce CAP this year but I have no clue what it will look like

Will certainly require restructuring somewhere to fit both Pierce & Brown in.  Perhaps it’s not feasible, but one can dream

 

DRAFT:

• 1st Round (#14):  Ed Oliver - DT Houston:  

Replace Grady with a similar player at a much cheaper cost Pierce, Senat & Oliver is formidable.

• 3rd Round:  Tyronne Percod - OG  NC State:  

Prescod, an All American, finished the 2018 regular season with the highest overall grade (85.7) among all offensive linemen as he allowed just six hurries on 342 pass-blocking snaps. His 86.2 run-blocking grade was 4.1 points higher than the next closest offensive lineman. He allowed no sacks and no pressures the entire season.  Could beat out Wes in training camp.

• 4th Round:  Elijah Holyfield - RB - UGA:

A physical runner to pick up tough yards behind Mack & Spain

• 4th Round (comp pick): Anthony Nelson - DE/DT  - Iowa:

 Nelson recorded 45 tackles with 13.5 for a loss, 9.5 sacks and one pass batted in 2018. He was a solid edge rusher for the Hawkeyes and contributed to them having a tough defensive line on the other side from the talented A.J. Epenesa

• 5th Round: Bruce Brown -  CB - Troy:

 A corner with very good ball skills and instincts.

• 5th Round: Terry Goodwin - WR/KR - UGA:

Legit 4.3 speed wiith good hands and solid route runner.  Has impressed at the Senior Bowl.  Chaney, UGA OC had no clue how to utilize the 5 star speedster.  Will be a better pro than college player 

 

After this point it’s a complete guess

Edited January 26, 2019 by Falconsin2012

[halifaxfalcon]

I don’t understand tagging Grady, signing Pierce and then drafting Oliver. If we were to sign Pierce (monetary value too low) we wouldn’t go for Oliver as well as we have several pressing needs. Giving up a 2nd alongside this is highly unlikely and scary.

if we got Pierce I could see us going after Jonah Williams in the 1st. I prefer the idea of drafting Oliver in the first and signing a fa lineman like Spain. We then still have our 2nd and 3rd to upgrade at corner/ o-line or defensive end.

[FalconsIn2012]

22 minutes ago, halifaxfalcon said:

I don’t understand tagging Grady, signing Pierce and then drafting Oliver. If we were to sign Pierce (monetary value too low) we wouldn’t go for Oliver as well as we have several pressing needs. Giving up a 2nd alongside this is highly unlikely and scary.

if we got Pierce I could see us going after Jonah Williams in the 1st. I prefer the idea of drafting Oliver in the first and signing a fa lineman like Spain. We then still have our 2nd and 3rd to upgrade at corner/ o-line or defensive end.

Adding Pierce was a reach.  But he is a top-3  run defender so I wanted to see if plausible.  If Pierce is possible,you could simply draft Oliver and let Grady walk.  That 13.5 mill could then simply go to Pierce.

[halifaxfalcon]

26 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Adding Pierce was a reach.  But he is a top-3  run defender so I wanted to see if plausible.  If Pierce is possible,you could simply draft Oliver and let Grady walk.  That 13.5 mill could then simply go to Pierce.

It’s all plausible... I think your mock has some good ideas in helping improve the trenches. I think some of the financials are a bit off but solid effort.

It’s rare to see teams sign players from tender unless they are elite players. Pierce is nice but I just don’t see it + another big contract that keeping our 2nd rounder and drafting would not be. This extra cash frees up money for a starting calibre o lineman 

Im praying for Oliver and would like Spain as a fa pickup. Our team improves massively with these 2 moves alone. It’s going to be an interesting off season.

 

[FalconsIn2012]

1 hour ago, halifaxfalcon said:

It’s all plausible... I think your mock has some good ideas in helping improve the trenches. I think some of the financials are a bit off but solid effort.

It’s rare to see teams sign players from tender unless they are elite players. Pierce is nice but I just don’t see it + another big contract that keeping our 2nd rounder and drafting would not be. This extra cash frees up money for a starting calibre o lineman 

Im praying for Oliver and would like Spain as a fa pickup. Our team improves massively with these 2 moves alone. It’s going to be an interesting off season.

 

That’s how I see things too.  But we still need the big nasty up front to help with run defense. I could have simply taken Wilkins or Simmons but you’re stuck with the Grady contract.  I could be wrong but I preferred Oliver & Piece to  Grady & Simmons.  

You think Pierce will get over 12 million per?

[NeonDeion]

You lost me at losing Grady. You just don’t let studs walk unless they are asking for 20 million/year 

[halifaxfalcon]

Free agency is a different beast... average players get big deals. If Grady is valued at 15mm/year + Pierce will argue he’s in a similar category

[TRUju2111]

Why in the **** would we let Grady walk and then sign a DT who can't get to the QB like Grady for not that much cheaper and lose a 2nd Rd pick..WTF? Makes zero sense and would not look good for the organization to the other young players we need to take care of.

Terrible mock, just terrible! (Barkley voice)

Edited January 26, 2019 by TRUju2111

[Smiler11]

I like the Oliver and Holyfield picks, but giving up a 2nd round pick and $60m to Michael Pierce makes no sense from both a fit and value perspective.

[FalconsIn2012]

3 hours ago, NeonDeion said:

You lost me at losing Grady. You just don’t let studs walk unless they are asking for 20 million/year 

The assumption is that Grady’s agent is asking for 16 million per.  I like Grady on the field and love what he does in the community.  But it’s a business.  Remove emotions and open your mind a bit.  Not saying I’m right, but what I presented was an alternate method of meeting our needs without overpaying GJ.

The reasoning: I believe Oliver and Jarrett are very similar players at the moment.  The drop in production on Day 1 would not be too much.  As such, we can use Jarrett’s 16 million to get an elite DT, Pierce, and a starting OG, Spain.  So instead of Jarrett + Simmons, we have Pierce + Oliver + Spain.

[FalconsIn2012]

N

1 hour ago, Smiler11 said:

I like the Oliver and Holyfield picks, but giving up a 2nd round pick and $60m to Michael Pierce makes no sense from both a fit and value perspective.

Pierce is the best NT in football.  Whether a space eating NT is a scheme fit in Quinn’s defense is another matter.  Has he ever used a big NT in Cover 3?  

Michael Pierce, a former undrafted free agent out of Samford, is currently the team’s highest-graded defender (90.9) amidst a career year. The 6-foot, 340-pounder anchors the Ravens’ defense as the team’s bully in the trenches and marquee run defender. Pierce earned 79.0-plus run-defense grades in each of his first two seasons in the NFL and now owns an impressive 91.7 run-defense grade that ranks fourth at his position through Week 16.

[FalconsIn2012]

A nice analysis on what Pierce brings to the table:

In 2016, the Baltimore Ravens added undrafted free agent nose tackle Michael Pierce and crossed their fingers. About to start his third season this weekend against our Buffalo Bills, Pierce has already exceeded expectations starting 13 games last season. Pierce should be matched up against the interior of Buffalo’s offensive line, which we all know will be a critical part of Sunday’s contest.

Play 1

Michael Pierce is typically asked to take on a role similar to that asked of Marcell Dareus by Rex Ryan. Specifically, negate offensive lineman so his teammates can clean up. Pierce only had one sack in 2017, but 49 combined tackles playing this role. For this play, Pierce is taking on the double team. The play pauses to highlight two large running lanes, which Pierce helps create. For a nose tackle in the Ravens’ defense, it’s less about clogging lanes than it is about controlling where the lanes develop. Pierce knows he has C.J. Mosley behind him to clean up, and both of his teammates to each side are working one on one, allowing them to shift and close the gaps. Pierce’s control of two opponents on this play is impressive. If you’re wondering, that’s Maurkice Puncey and David DeCastro he’s taking on. Between them they have nine Pro Bowl seasons and four All-Pro.

Play 2

This is very similar to the last clip, but the pauses show the lanes from the running back’s perspective. Here you can see even better how the Ravens scheme open lanes. While it sounds counter-intuitive, look how easily Patrick Onwuasor can shadow the play with Michael Pierce

 

Play 3

A lot of Pierce’s tackles were of the “one arm” variety. While nose tackles aren’t often expected to be master hand fighters, Michael Pierce shows off some solid fundamentals. If it were up to right guard T.J. Lang (two Pro Bowls), Pierce’s left arm would be tied up and Lang wouldn’t be pushed so far to his left. Pierce’s well-timed moves put him in position to make the tackle.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Falconsin2012

[FalconsIn2012]

2 hours ago, halifaxfalcon said:

Free agency is a different beast... average players get big deals. If Grady is valued at 15mm/year + Pierce will argue he’s in a similar category

The Patriots are one of the few teams who dabble in Restricted Free Agency and they kill people with it.  It’s how they got Welkwr & Hogan & Gillislee amongst others.  

Still not 100% on the rules of RSA.  So if Falcons give up the 2nd round pick and offer Pierce $10,000,000/annually which the Ravens decline to match, can Pierce stop the deal?

[FalconsIn2012]

2 hours ago, TRUju2111 said:

Why in the **** would we let Grady walk and then sign a DT who can't get to the QB like Grady for not that much cheaper and lose a 2nd Rd pick..WTF? Makes zero sense and would not look good for the organization to the other young players we need to take care of.

Terrible mock, just terrible! (Barkley voice)

Because Oliver is the same player as Jarrett so you’re not losing the production.  Pierce + Oliver + Spain is better than Jarrett + Simmons...IMO

Edited January 26, 2019 by Falconsin2012

[TRUju2111]

5 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

Because Oliver is the same player as Jarrett so you’re not losing the production.  Pierce + Oliver + Spain is better than Jarrett + Simmons...IMO

Oliver who hasn't even had a practice on an nfl team is the same player as one of the top DTS in the NFL? Wtf bro, this is just delusional. Oh and about that 2nd Rd pick? This is all delusional 

[FalconsIn2012]

7 minutes ago, TRUju2111 said:

Oliver who hasn't even had a practice on an nfl team is the same player as one of the top DTS in the NFL? Wtf bro, this is just delusional. Oh and about that 2nd Rd pick? This is all delusional 

I think Oliver, in his rookie year, will be as good as 2016 Grady Jarrett.  Not as good as current GJ, but also not too far away.  

Jarrett already said he won’t settle for anything less than he is worth.  I wouldn’t either in his situation.  The market says he will get around 16-18 million per year.  In this scenario I’d be fiscally responsible and move in a different direction.  

Again, it’s just a hypothetical.

Edited January 26, 2019 by Falconsin2012

[jlrfalcon]

Grady and Beasley have the same agent - I think he is making them a package deal which is a big part of why the Falcons have not been able to sign Grady so far to date like other players in the past.

The only option that the Falcons are likely to have for Grady is the franchise tag for 2019 ($13 mil?) which is likely to be cheaper than a new contract and to let Beasley go ASAP.

The only thing that would then keep Grady in Atlanta beyond 2019 is likely a poor season from him and a more lower contract.  I just hope we don't have a new side of Grady who would be willing to sit out a season rather than accept the franchise tag.

[FalconsIn2012]

17 minutes ago, jlrfalcon said:

Grady and Beasley have the same agent - I think he is making them a package deal which is a big part of why the Falcons have not been able to sign Grady so far to date like other players in the past.

The only option that the Falcons are likely to have for Grady is the franchise tag for 2019 ($13 mil?) which is likely to be cheaper than a new contract and to let Beasley go ASAP.

The only thing that would then keep Grady in Atlanta beyond 2019 is likely a poor season from him and a more lower contract.  I just hope we don't have a new side of Grady who would be willing to sit out a season rather than accept the franchise tag.

The Franchise Tag will be $16,000,000 for GJ.  When I first did this mock I had him tagged for next year.  But then I saw the projected 10% increase for DT’s and I revised.  Draft Oliver and let him work

 

For the 2019 salary cap, $190 million is being used. The 7.22 percent increase from the current $177.2 million figure is consistent with the growth in the salary cap in recent years. The average annual increase over the last five years has been 7.58 percent.

POSITION	CURRENT	PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
Cornerback	$14,975,000	$16,175,000	8.01%
Defensive end	$17,143,000	$17,291,000	0.86%
Defensive tackle	$13,939 ,000	$15,85000	10.16%
Linebacker	$14,961,000	$15,591,000	4.21%
Offensive line	$14,077,000	$14,201,000	0.88%
Punter/kicker	$4,939,000	$5,018,000	1.6%
Quarterback	$23,189,000	$25,103,000	8.25%
Running back	$11,866,000	$11,322,000	-4.58%
Safety	$11,287,000	$11,256,000	-0.27%
Tight end	$9,846,000	$10,486,000	6.5%
Wide receiver	$15,982,000	$16,948,000	6.04%

Edited January 26, 2019 by Falconsin2012

[1989Fan]

**** no to losing Grady. It simply won’t happen so those thinking it into their plans can stop. He will either be signed or tagged...tagged to buy more time to sign him, so likely not playing under the $16M number. You don’t let a player like that go especially since he is a great locker room guy. And if you can’t keep him, you tag him and trade, def don’t just let him walk. That’s and extra 2nd or even first round pick...or a good veteran.

i like adding one of those DTs, but not both. I would draft a DT because I am expecting a big leap from a Senat this year. One can only hope it is a leap similar to Grady’s in year 2. Even resigning GJ am Due senat taking a leap, Oliver would be a great get. He would be similar in cost to a good rotational DT, and his deal would be up to renew when Jarrett’s extension is running out. At that time he would be a 9 year bet with a cheaper cost to bring back or it would be more sensible to move on.

Those 3 plus Crawford gives you a great rotation along the line!

[jlrfalcon]

13 minutes ago, Falconsin2012 said:

The Franchise Tag will be $16,000,000 for GJ.  When I first did this mock I had him tagged for next year.  But then I saw the projected 10% increase for DT’s and I revised.  Draft Oliver and let him work

 

For the 2019 salary cap, $190 million is being used. The 7.22 percent increase from the current $177.2 million figure is consistent with the growth in the salary cap in recent years. The average annual increase over the last five years has been 7.58 percent.

POSITION	CURRENT	PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
Cornerback	$14,975,000	$16,175,000	8.01%
Defensive end	$17,143,000	$17,291,000	0.86%
Defensive tackle	$13,939 ,000	$15,85000	10.16%
Linebacker	$14,961,000	$15,591,000	4.21%
Offensive line	$14,077,000	$14,201,000	0.88%
Punter/kicker	$4,939,000	$5,018,000	1.6%
Quarterback	$23,189,000	$25,103,000	8.25%
Running back	$11,866,000	$11,322,000	-4.58%
Safety	$11,287,000	$11,256,000	-0.27%
Tight end	$9,846,000	$10,486,000	6.5%
Wide receiver	$15,982,000	$16,948,000	6.04%

If the salary cap goes up to $190 million then it does give the Falcons more room but it is speculation as to how much it and the franchise tags go up.  Oddly, though, I would question your math ($15.85 million - $13.939 million divided by $13.939 million does not equal 10.16% but more like 13.71% which is twice what the salary cap is predicted to go up 7.22%).  The fact that this draft is also going to be very well-stocked with DT's also questions whether the position is being temporarily overvalued.

 

[FalconsIn2012]

3 minutes ago, jlrfalcon said:

If the salary cap goes up to $190 million then it does give the Falcons more room but it is speculation as to how much it and the franchise tags go up.  Oddly, though, I would question your math ($15.85 million - $13.939 million divided by $13.939 million does not equal 10.16% but more like 13.71% which is twice what the salary cap is predicted to go up 7.22%).  The fact that this draft is also going to be very well-stocked with DT's also questions whether the position is being temporarily overvalued.

 

It’s not my math...lol.  It’s from an article.  But I tried to fix the format and made a mistake.  It’s 15.4 mill, not 15.8

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-these-seven-players-are-the-most-likely-candidates-to-get-franchise-tags-in-2019/

[TheDirtyWordII]

Not sure Pierce is a scheme fit coming from a 3-4.  Another issue is that in 2018, Pierce played 389 snaps while Grady played 710.  One of those screams 2 down player, while the other doesn’t.  So on a per down on the field POV, you’re not really saving any money.  You actually may be overpaying. All while losing our 2nd rounder.  Not palatable.

I think assuming Mack will be cut after 2019 is projecting him to drop off.  I haven’t seen any signs.

Everything else seems fine...although this would represent a BIG splash in FA which I’m not sure is the Falcons style.  Not sure if Brown is a great fit but he turned in a great year.  

[FalconsIn2012]

17 minutes ago, TheDirtyWordII said:

Not sure Pierce is a scheme fit coming from a 3-4.  Another issue is that in 2018, Pierce played 389 snaps while Grady played 710.  One of those screams 2 down player, while the other doesn’t.  So on a per down on the field POV, you’re not really saving any money.  You actually may be overpaying. All while losing our 2nd rounder.  Not palatable.

I think assuming Mack will be cut after 2019 is projecting him to drop off.  I haven’t seen any signs.

Everything else seems fine...although this would represent a BIG splash in FA which I’m not sure is the Falcons style.  Not sure if Brown is a great fit but he turned in a great year.  

Great point on the snap count.  I did not catch that.  But they will play different positions.  Oliver would assume Grady’s position & snap count.

I see Pierce playing the Red Bryant and Mebane role on the Seahawks defense.  Pierce is 20 lbs heavier but could play the role.  

And I’m not a FA guy.  Initially I had us tag GJ and draft Oliver.  Then I saw the tag jump to 15.3 mill on DT’s....and it still left a gaping hole at DT so I went outside the box on Pierce and letting GJ walk

Edited January 26, 2019 by Falconsin2012

[Smiler11]

1 hour ago, Falconsin2012 said:

N

Pierce is the best NT in football.  Whether a space eating NT is a scheme fit in Quinn’s defense is another matter.  Has he ever used a big NT in Cover 3?  

Cover 3 is a coverage scheme on the back end that can be run out of any front. DQ predominantly runs a 4-3 under base defense and whilst he has mixed in 2 gapping principles in the past, it's predominantly a 1 gap scheme that removes the need to read and react (as you would if 2 gapping) and instead focuses on attacking and penetrating. Our DT's in base are typically aligned in the 1 and 3 techniques, with the 1 technique aligned to the strongside. However that can change on any play and so ideally our base DT would be equally competent in both alignments (hence why Grady is so valuable to this defense).

Although our 'base' defense is a 4-3 under we only deploy it around 30% of the time. The other 70% of the time we are in nickel or dime where Pierce will be of little value. Grady on the other hand is versatile enough to play in base and nickel hence the discrepancy in the snap counts between the two last year even though Grady missed a number of games.

Pierce is a pure 0/1 tech NT to me that holds far more value in a 3 man front than in our scheme. Even then, in the modern NFL, where base defenses are being used less frequently year on year, players like Pierce are not valued anywhere near what they used to be. I very much doubt someone will pay him $12m a year or be willing to give up a 2nd rounder for him. 

[g-dawg]

Understand the logic of it but just not realistic.  If you think Oliver is similar to Grady - then I will accept this at face value however, you do know free agency comes before the draft, right?

If we give up our 2nd rounder for Pearce, how do we get Oliver?  I know some mocks have Oliver dropping to Falcons pick but it won’t happen - I feel about 75% confident that Oliver won’t be available - and this blows your whole plan up.

Also, you just don’t pay space eaters $12mm per yr.  

Also re: Patriots LT, you cannot fall in love with guys that perform great in other systems.