Tandy

Draft Opinion - Best DT against the Run

86 posts in this topic

12 hours ago, Falconsin2012 said:

It’s a fact.  A study was done between 2010-2015.  It found that outside of round 1 & 2, the most likely spot to find an All Pro is UDFA.  It was 11% of the All Pro selections were UDFA’s

That's not entirely how it was worded. They were talking about the total number of all pros and outside the 1st and 2nd round the next highest amount were UDFA. Of course every year there are only ~35 picks per round whilst there are hundreds of UDFA's.

A 3rd or 4th round pick is still more likely to have a better career than an UDFA.

As a collective if you have 30 UDFA's and 1 3rd round pick, then yes you have a better shot at one of the 30 UDFA's ending up an all pro than your 3rd round pick.

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On 1/25/2019 at 6:49 PM, FalconFanSince1970 said:

I like all of these DTs but we need a 1T. McClain and Senat got run over. Grady did too when he played the nose. Quinn's only Top 10 Falcon defense featured a 6'3" 346 lb fire plug named Poe. There's only one 1T on that list. Dexter Lawrence. Buddy is 6'4" 340 lbs and can anchor a run defense. If we don't solve the 1T problem in free agency he should be the pick if he's still on the board. Just look at the final four teams this year. All fully capable of running you over. Quinn got run over in 2015, 2016 and 2018.

You think Baltimore’s Michael Pierce could play in Quinn’s scheme?  He is an RSA and likely a 2nd round tender

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On 1/26/2019 at 6:14 AM, Smiler11 said:

That's not entirely how it was worded. They were talking about the total number of all pros and outside the 1st and 2nd round the next highest amount were UDFA. Of course every year there are only ~35 picks per round whilst there are hundreds of UDFA's.

A 3rd or 4th round pick is still more likely to have a better career than an UDFA.

As a collective if you have 30 UDFA's and 1 3rd round pick, then yes you have a better shot at one of the 30 UDFA's ending up an all pro than your 3rd round pick.

Here is the article:

Tracking NFL Draft Efficiency: How Contingent Is Success To Draft Position?

Patrick RisheContributor
I cover the economics of the sports industry.
 

On Monday morning during a discussion which appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, I addressed some of Richard Thaler’s findings in his examination of whether NFL teams overvalue first-round draft picks while undervaluing later-round picks.

Despite all the advanced metrics being developed to assess ideal playing strategies, training methods, and other in-game and out-of-game dynamics, the toughest thing to assess to this day across all sports is to determine which collegians will make the best professionals.  Who will have staying power?  Who will be a consistent starter?  Who will become a stud?

 

Even in horse racing, there is no magic formula.  American Pharoah, on the verge of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978, was bought at $300,000.  With wins at the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, experts place his value between $15-20 million.  With the Triple Crown, the same experts place his value at $30 million.

Intuitively, we would expect 1st round draft picks to be more likely to (a) make and stay on NFL rosters, (b) start a higher percentage of games during their careers, and (c) make the NFL’s All-Pro Team.

 

But it also makes intuitive sense that latter rounds of the draft can add value as well.  The average length of an NFL career is 3.3 years, according to the NFLPA.  And rosters are 53 men deep.  Thus, building depth and replenishing talent requires teams to have some acumen in selecting players deep into a draft.

Mr. Thaler’s research on this subject is much more extensive than mine, but here are three morsels to consider when tracking NFL draft efficiency.

 

1) Correlation between Draft Position and “Starter Status”

Using Pro Football Reference as a resource, I looked at all players who were classified as starters at the beginning of the 2014 season to determine what round they were drafted in upon entering the league.  Of the 595 players designated as such, the results reveal the following:

 

Round Freq. Percent Cuml
1 178 29.9 29.9
2 104 17.5 47.4
3 75 12.6 60.0
4 64 10.8 70.8
5 38 6.4 77.2
6 29 4.9 82.0
7 25 4.2 86.2
Undrafted 81 13.6 99.8
Supplemental 1 0.2 100.0
Total 595 100  

-          Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league;

-          Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rdround;

-          Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7;

-          Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks.

 

2) Correlation between Draft Position and Staying Power

Given that the average career length is only 3.3 years, this begs the question of how much more likely are higher draft picks to stick around the league longer than later draft picks.

For simplicity, and with more time I would like to build a larger sample size, I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started.  The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:

Percentage of Total Games Started
(Since 2010…80 games max)  
Groups Median    
Overall 15.0%    
1st 67.5%    
2nd 33.8%    
3rd 36.3%    
4th 6.3%    
5th 4.4%    
6th 1.9%    
7th 0.0%    

-          The overall median “percentage of games started” by those players selected in the 2010 NFL Draft is 15%;

-          1st round draftees from that season started a higher median percentage of games (67.5%) compared to players drafted in other rounds;

 


-          2nd and 3rd round draftees from 2010 have started roughly 34% and 36% of all possible games, respectively.

-          The median percentage of games started for players drafted in rounds 4 through 7 from the 2010 draft was extremely low, never rising above 7% of games played over the last 5 years.

3) Correlation between Draft Position and Reaching “All-Pro” Status

For the 171 players designated as either 1st or 2nd team All-Pros across the three years spanning 2012 through 2014, we found the following:

Round Freq. Percent Cuml.
1 83 48.5 48.5
2 24 14.0 62.6
3 15 8.8 71.4
4 12 7.0 78.4
5 9 5.3 83.6
6 6 3.5 87.1
7 2 1.2 88.3
Undrafted 18 10.5 98.8
Supplemental 2 1.2 100.0
Total 171 100  
 

-          48.5% were first round draft picks when they entered the league;

-          2nd round picks were the next most likely to reach All-Pro status (14%);

-          But then undrafted players were the third most likely at 10.5%;

-          Lastly, 21% of All-Pros from this period came from either the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round.

In sum, the expectation that first-round picks are more likely to start, succeed, and have staying power is confirmed.


However, with 40% of 2014′s starters and 38% of All-Pros from 2012 through 2014 coming after the 2nd round (with 14% and 10% of these being undrafted players), this shows there’s value deep into the draft.

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On 1/25/2019 at 5:50 PM, g-dawg said:

We aren't taking Dexter Lawrence at #14 - I will almost guarantee that.  The DTackle needs to be a good run stopper but you don't burn a #14 pick on a run-stopping specialist that will only be on the field 30-40% of the time.

Yes. You draft run stoppers in the mid rounds. 1st round picks must affect the passing game. 

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29 minutes ago, Summerhill said:

Yes. You draft run stoppers in the mid rounds. 1st round picks must affect the passing game. 

Yep and 2 down players tend to fall significantly in the draft. See A'Shawn Robinson, Andrew Billings and Reggie Ragland. 

I fully expect Lawrence to be available on day 2, not that I want us to draft him there. 

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On 1/25/2019 at 6:32 PM, Falconsin2012 said:

 

It makes for healthy debate and conversation though

Come on man we both know nothing that happens on TATF is even in the same solar system as healthy :lol:

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On 1/25/2019 at 8:20 PM, Falconsin2012 said:

Good inside info, Kiwi.  His tape hints he has a plan, but I didn’t watch any Senior Bowl reps.  100 tackles from a DE is impressive and hints at a relentless motor.

The video I posted above is pretty impressive.  He does not bend well, but he is immovable setting the edge.  Watch him dominate Clemson’s OL

Thats what I like about Allen. He is in that Justin Tuck, M. Bennett mold.  A real dog on the edges.  We need that instead of having bookend DEs in a 4-3 that both hover around 250 lbs. Allen could be locked into that big base LDE spot.  All I would want from him is that same tenacity defending the edge and a handful of sacks each year. 

Think he is long gone before our pick though obviously but maybe if he times bad he drops.

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5 hours ago, Smiler11 said:

Yep and 2 down players tend to fall significantly in the draft. See A'Shawn Robinson, Andrew Billings and Reggie Ragland. 

I fully expect Lawrence to be available on day 2, not that I want us to draft him there. 

You wouldnt want D. Lawrence in the 2nd or 3rd?  At all?

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25 minutes ago, Stryka said:

You wouldnt want D. Lawrence in the 2nd or 3rd?  At all?

I don't think he's what we are looking for so no. I guess at some point the value becomes too much to pass up but I think a 3-4 team will grab him before he reaches that point for us. 

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