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MD-FalconFan13

We need Quinnen Williams

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Just now, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

People also have to stop saying "theres no chance player X won't be there at Pick 14" 

Every single years consensus Top 10 picks fall. Every. Year. 

Is it likely WIlliams is on the board? No, not really. But it wasnt likely that Derwin James would be on the board. Or Myles Jack. Or Laremy Tunsil. Or Sharrif Floyd. x100. 

A friend of mine the eve of the draft last year said "I swear, if we pick a wide receiver they need to fire the entire Falcons FO."

I said "Calvin Ridley won't be there when we pick, but if he is, I hope they give him a real hard look."

We were both wrong.

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Just now, JDaveG said:

A friend of mine the eve of the draft last year said "I swear, if we pick a wide receiver they need to fire the entire Falcons FO."

I said "Calvin Ridley won't be there when we pick, but if he is, I hope they give him a real hard look."

We were both wrong.

I did a brief pre-draft podcast for my buddies (we watch the draft together in Chicago every year) and said Calvin Ridley was my worst case scenario. Not because of who he is as a player but more the role/need/etc. 

I was 100% wrong and I'm totally cool with it. No shame here. I've been wrong plenty of times. I've been right plenty of times. So it goes. 

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5 minutes ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I disagree with this like ~75-85%. 

In the vast majority of cases, players arent defined products when drafted. Good players are usually developed, not drafted. And I think its a mistake to distill things down to "bad front office people who pick bad players." 

Every front office in the league picks "bad players." Every front office in the league picks "good players." 

I DO agree with the general point of "what does it matter if you "reach" for a player that ends up being great." The best example of that is someone like Travis Frederick, a pick that was brutally criticized as a "reach for a 3rd rounder" and almost immediately produced one of the best OLs over the last 10 years in the league. A player who ended up developing into arguably the best center in the NFL. Is it a "reach" to overdraft a dude who ends up being the best in the league as his position? Nah, I dont think so. 

 

One cannot suggest that it's mere happenstance that the same bad teams are at the top of the pecking order in the draft each year.

A quick look at the last 5 years and impending 6th draft show a very clear same set of characters. Bucs Bills browns 9ers Giants Jags jets are nearly 100% participants in the top 10 each year. They are drafting poorly specifically in the top 10. To suggest talent is somehow magically better OUTSIDE the top is..willy wonka level crazy. You draft bad, thats on your FO. Otherwise you are saying its just dumb luck.

2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Cardinals Browns Cleveland Browns Los Angeles Rams(Tennessee Tampa Bay Buccaneers Houston Texans
49ers Giants Chicago Bears(49ers) Philadelphia Eagles(cleveland) Tennessee Titans St. Louis Rams (washington
Jets Jets San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars
Raiders Browns Jacksonville Jaguars Dallas Cowboys Oakland Raiders Buffalo Bills (cleveland)
Buccaneers Broncos Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars Washington Redskins Oakland Raiders
Giants Colts(jets) New York Jets Baltimore Ravens New York Jets Atlanta Falcons
Jaguars Bills(tampa) Los Angeles Chargers San Francisco 49ers Chicago Bears Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lions Bears Carolina Panthers Tennessee Titans Atlanta Falcons Cleveland Browns
Bills 49ers Cincinnati Bengals Chicago Bears(tampa Bay) New York Giants Minnesota Vikings
Broncos Cardinals(raiders) Kansas City Chiefs(buffalo) New York Giants St. Louis Rams Detroit Lions
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1 hour ago, ya_boi_j said:

The moment he opens his mouth and talks **** about an opponent you'll be asking why they wasted those picks on a guy with no class and that he needs to shut up and tackle

Agreed, but there is a huge difference between a competitive, sh*t talking dude with his act together vs a fkg ignorant dumb-*** who has no idea how to keep himself outta trouble. It's easy to tell the difference as you are fully aware.

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1 hour ago, JDaveG said:

A friend of mine the eve of the draft last year said "I swear, if we pick a wide receiver they need to fire the entire Falcons FO."

I said "Calvin Ridley won't be there when we pick, but if he is, I hope they give him a real hard look."

We were both wrong.

You have to admit Ridley looks a lot better than Taven Bryan at this point. I was Ok with Ridley in the first, the guy we missed out on is BJ Hill in the second.

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7 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I've been impressed with his hand usage. I think he's most likely gone before we're up and based on what I've seen so far (which isnt much....havent started "scouting" yet) he isnt the type of guy we should go get. 

If he's there, cool. And there was some push back against his stock the other night because he didnt look all that well conditioned and had mediocre get off. So he could be. 

But I'm not convinced one way or the other yet. 

I’m impressed how a guy of his size slips through gaps.

Hes a block of humanity but he continually seems to slip through gaps that are non existent.Throw in what you mentioned and he’s an absolute weapon.

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7 hours ago, Cole World said:

Yes we should have.

 

 

Interesting stats, but what was the reason for winning ?

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7 hours ago, DoYouSeeWhatHappensLarry said:

I think the far more interesting angle on this is that "Donald" in March 2014 wasnt/isnt Donald in 2018. 

A lot of us like him a lot. I'm sure I posted dozens of times about how impressive he was. But he any of us knew he was going to be an immediate DPOY candidate, he obviously wouldnt have been around long enough for the Rams to draft him with their second pick. 

And yet.....every single year, people default to talking about the draft like its a perfectly efficient market where each player is a full defined asset. 

Its crazy. 

I figured he would be. He was a recking ball and it was obvious.

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8 hours ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

.

This guys is next level disruptive, and the kicker is he's younger than Aaron Donald was when he came into the league. He just turned 21! Let that marinate for you. This guy just dominated college football and up until a few weeks ago, couldn't legally buy beer.

 

 

 

so you're saying he'd pass the Falcons filter cause he hasn't had time to develop a drinking problem??  :shrug:

 

ok I'm in, let's get him

 

:ninja::lol:

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19 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Not remotely true. Bama DTs have been phenomenal lately. 

If anything, Clemson DEs have been struggling in the NFL more.

We talking DT not DE Redskins took 2 DT in back to back drafts Ive heard almost nothing from Payne and company

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16 hours ago, osiruz said:

You have to admit Ridley looks a lot better than Taven Bryan at this point. I was Ok with Ridley in the first, the guy we missed out on is BJ Hill in the second.

Yea, Taven hasnt bad, but he hasnt made much noise this year.  We really need a mammoth to play beside Grady to eat up blocks for the backers.

 

we narrowly missed out on BJ hill in the 3rrd, who folks were saying would be a stretch for our 2nd round pick

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19 hours ago, A-TowN.- said:

Loved Donald too, but at least we had a chance at him. No chance of even sniffing Quinnen unless we trade the farm. I’ll pass. He’s going to be special, but that’ll be a lot of picks. 

Love Donald but Jake was and is still the right pick. He’s in the cusp of an all pro LT.  The rams success btw came with the offensive minded McVay. Don’t forget despite Donald stuffing from day one that the rams sucked under many of his early years.

Williams is great, but do you trade up to that top 8 range he’ll go in? That’s not cheap. Do you need him? Or can you add an edge, OL or even interior guy like Wilkens that will be impactful without an expenditure of a lot of draft trade capital?

is Williams that Julio type guy? Remember, that unlike Donald who had impressive pass rush stats in college, brother Williams or even Oliver (another hyped prospect) produced that type of production in pass rush.

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18 minutes ago, Diggable Birds said:

We talking DT not DE Redskins took 2 DT in back to back drafts Ive heard almost nothing from Payne and company

Jarran Reed just had 10.5 sacks. Jonathan Allen had 8 sacks and 61 tackles as an every down player. Da'Shawn Hand was one of the best rookie DTs this year. Payne was a stud and a half at NT with 56 tackles and 5 sacks - at nose? You kidding me? Dalvin Tomlinson is one of the best run stoppers in the league. Ditto for A'Shawn Robinson - don't put a lot of stock into PFF, but he was ranked the #11 DT this year. 

You have to go back to 2013 to find a Bama DT that didn't pan out, and that was a 5th round pick (Jesse Williams). Bama DTs are great.

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Quinnen is a stud but unless there are 8 DTs drafted in top 13 picks. We are sure to get us a stud DT in this draft. So much talent out there and still a few teams needing QBs and playmakers. I dont think you trade up for DTs. Pass rushers are different. That said a lot of great DTs are pass rushers too. Just want to get a contributor who can improve run D and pass rush. 

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44 minutes ago, VTCrunkler said:

Yea, Taven hasnt bad, but he hasnt made much noise this year.  We really need a mammoth to play beside Grady to eat up blocks for the backers.

 

we narrowly missed out on BJ hill in the 3rrd, who folks were saying would be a stretch for our 2nd round pick

He wasn't a stretch for a 2nd, dude wrecked senior bowl and was on our radar. He went early 3rd, so we could've easily taken him with our pick. Ended up with 5 sacks and being a starter.

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williams is out of reach but lawrence may have fell into our lap. im sure teams can find out exactly what was in his system, and as long as its not something too serious we should consider taking him. 

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18 hours ago, runshoot said:

 

One cannot suggest that it's mere happenstance that the same bad teams are at the top of the pecking order in the draft each year.

A quick look at the last 5 years and impending 6th draft show a very clear same set of characters. Bucs Bills browns 9ers Giants Jags jets are nearly 100% participants in the top 10 each year. They are drafting poorly specifically in the top 10. To suggest talent is somehow magically better OUTSIDE the top is..willy wonka level crazy. You draft bad, thats on your FO. Otherwise you are saying its just dumb luck.

2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Cardinals Browns Cleveland Browns Los Angeles Rams(Tennessee Tampa Bay Buccaneers Houston Texans
49ers Giants Chicago Bears(49ers) Philadelphia Eagles(cleveland) Tennessee Titans St. Louis Rams (washington
Jets Jets San Francisco 49ers San Diego Chargers Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars
Raiders Browns Jacksonville Jaguars Dallas Cowboys Oakland Raiders Buffalo Bills (cleveland)
Buccaneers Broncos Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars Washington Redskins Oakland Raiders
Giants Colts(jets) New York Jets Baltimore Ravens New York Jets Atlanta Falcons
Jaguars Bills(tampa) Los Angeles Chargers San Francisco 49ers Chicago Bears Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lions Bears Carolina Panthers Tennessee Titans Atlanta Falcons Cleveland Browns
Bills 49ers Cincinnati Bengals Chicago Bears(tampa Bay) New York Giants Minnesota Vikings
Broncos Cardinals(raiders) Kansas City Chiefs(buffalo) New York Giants St. Louis Rams Detroit Lions

You're drawing a conclusion without the necessary support. Yes, a certain portion of the Top 10 is frequently filled by the handful of "bad" franchises in the NFL. However, there are a multitude of reasons that could be the case without it having to be as simple as "bad FO draft bad players." The two largest components of the consistent struggles these teams face is poor ownership and a lack of a viable starting QB. 

I'd also argue that looking at the last 5 years is a pretty poorly drawn sample given the QB issue but thats another whole conversation. I mean, look at the teams you've listed. 

I'm not saying its all dumb luck....I'm saying a whole lot more of it is "dumb luck" (in reality the word would be "uncertainty") than anyone is willing to admit. Not to mention that theres obviously a serious problem with saying "oh man, this team drafted poorly" 5 years after the draft took place. That's hindsight bias. There are Top 10 picks that were perfectly fine in the moment that didnt work out. Yes, there have been some picks that have been bad right from the get go and these teams have been guilty of some of these picks. The Jags taking Tyson Alualau. The Raiders taking DHB. The Browns taking Justin Gilbert. 

But there have been just as many, if not more, picks that these teams have made that didnt work out despite being good picks in the moment. Luke Joeckle. Dante Fowler. Amari Cooper. Sammy Watkins. Eric Ebron. Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper. Barkevious Mingo. And some of these (and other players taken by the teams in question) have gone on to be solid+ pros elsewhere. Heck, go look at the Bills WR depth chart in 2015. Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Chris Hogan, all wasting away on a team without a QB and without (at the time) a decent ownership situation. 

Over a long sample, Top 10 talent will be marginally greater than talent from 11-20, which will be marginally greater than talent 21-30, and so on and so forth. But in any given draft, the margins are much much smaller. It's not all that uncommon to see the best player in any given draft drafted outside the Top 10. Or to see Pro Bowlers come from the 3rd round or the 5th round. Its much more uncertain than people give it credit for. 

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55 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Jarran Reed just had 10.5 sacks. Jonathan Allen had 8 sacks and 61 tackles as an every down player. Da'Shawn Hand was one of the best rookie DTs this year. Payne was a stud and a half at NT with 56 tackles and 5 sacks - at nose? You kidding me? Dalvin Tomlinson is one of the best run stoppers in the league. Ditto for A'Shawn Robinson - don't put a lot of stock into PFF, but he was ranked the #11 DT this year. 

You have to go back to 2013 to find a Bama DT that didn't pan out, and that was a 5th round pick (Jesse Williams). Bama DTs are great.

And that was an injury issue. Williams was a sleeper stud who just never got right. 

Theres a discussion to be had about the value of picking "one dimensional" DTs, regardless of school. But I dont think any of the Bama DTs has really "busted" since Terrence Cody. Here's the list of Bama DL since 2008: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2008&year_max=2018&draft_slot_min=1&draft_slot_max=500&pick_type=overall&pos[]=dt&pos[]=de&pos[]=dl&college_id=alabama&conference=any&show=all&order_by=default

I'm a little less bullish than you are but obviously the highly drafted Bama DL over the last half dozen years or so have been at the very least quality rotational pieces. 

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25 minutes ago, texasfalconfan said:

williams is out of reach but lawrence may have fell into our lap. im sure teams can find out exactly what was in his system, and as long as its not something too serious we should consider taking him. 

I saw this morning that Lawrence was the #14 ranked player in the draft (so far).  As much as I'd love Quinnen Williams, I would be just as happy with Lawrence or Wilkins or Oliver.  DT for me in the first...nothing else.

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30 minutes ago, osiruz said:

He wasn't a stretch for a 2nd, dude wrecked senior bowl and was on our radar. He went early 3rd, so we could've easily taken him with our pick. Ended up with 5 sacks and being a starter.

i bet we were going to scoop him up before senat, if he was available in the 3rd.  as i recall people were kind of upset we didnt get him

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20 hours ago, falcndave said:

My problem is that I think that Jarrett is just below elite. He gets it done without the same quality guys that Donald has standing next to him. That puts us in place to go out and find an equal or almost equal complimentary piece. We are not needy enough to have to mortgage our draft future and grab a player who is better than Jarrett. It would be a building move for a desperate team. I don't think that is where we are at. That said, I absolutely love the player and your analysis!

This is kinda the exact logic we used when going to get Julio. Think about it. We had a WR that was equal or almost equal to some of the best at the position. We gave up a multitude of picks to go get a guy that was better. It has proven to be one of the best moves in franchise history. 

In watching Quinnen Williams I see a guy thats going to wreak havoc on offenses. We would be pairing him with another great piece in Grady, given we resign him. This is the type of move that puts you over the top. Just my opinoin

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I'm just personally on the Dexter Lawrence bandwagon...340+ pounds and great speed for his size and will solidfy the middle against the run while still be able to collaspe pocket very much Poe like we did see that Poe presence made everyone better on the D-line and he had a similar role at Clemson...OL in FA and DL in Draft primarly I hope Lawrence

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1 hour ago, MSalmon said:

Love Donald but Jake was and is still the right pick. He’s in the cusp of an all pro LT.  The rams success btw came with the offensive minded McVay. Don’t forget despite Donald stuffing from day one that the rams sucked under many of his early years.

Williams is great, but do you trade up to that top 8 range he’ll go in? That’s not cheap. Do you need him? Or can you add an edge, OL or even interior guy like Wilkens that will be impactful without an expenditure of a lot of draft trade capital?

is Williams that Julio type guy? Remember, that unlike Donald who had impressive pass rush stats in college, brother Williams or even Oliver (another hyped prospect) produced that type of production in pass rush.

So it was right to pick a guy that is just starting to show slight glimpses of all pro LT potential in year 5 over a perennial  all pro DT from day 1? I just don't folks logic when they say this. I understand the positional importance, but we're talking a HOF DT here over a good LT. Give me the HOFer every time. 

To me we put too much stock in draft picks. Our 2nd and 3rd round picks outside of Debo have been largely a disappointment. Why not go for a guy that has a high chance of being a big difference maker?

Edited by MD-FalconFan13
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3 minutes ago, MD-FalconFan13 said:

So it was right to pick a guy that is showing glimpses of all pro LT potential in year 5 over a perennial  all pro DT from day 1? I just don't folks logic when they say this. I understand the positional importance, but we're talking a HOF DT here over a good LT. Give me the HOFer every time. 

To me we put too much stock in draft picks. Our 2nd and 3rd round picks outside of Debo have been largely a disappointment. Why not go for a guy that has a high chance of being a big difference maker?

Aaron Donald has been wrecking Havoc for 4 seasons. Only 2 of them have Rams been in playoffs and in those games its been the health and production of the offense that dictates a win. For us we could use a beast at DT but look at the Rams. They had Donald and Brockers, still went and got Suh and Fowler but how scary is their DL??? Not much scarier than last year when they won 13 games. 

We need a baller to add to DL. However DTs can impact the game but you dont go trade up for them like you would a generational QB or WR or CB or DE. #14 is a good spot and we should end up with a big baller without losing pick. Yes we have 2 extra picks but lets load up and double down on the DL and OL. 

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1 hour ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Jarran Reed just had 10.5 sacks. Jonathan Allen had 8 sacks and 61 tackles as an every down player. Da'Shawn Hand was one of the best rookie DTs this year. Payne was a stud and a half at NT with 56 tackles and 5 sacks - at nose? You kidding me? Dalvin Tomlinson is one of the best run stoppers in the league. Ditto for A'Shawn Robinson - don't put a lot of stock into PFF, but he was ranked the #11 DT this year. 

You have to go back to 2013 to find a Bama DT that didn't pan out, and that was a 5th round pick (Jesse Williams). Bama DTs are great.

Notably just about all of those players started rushing the passer better in the NFL than in college. 

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