Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Francis York Morgan

The draft is a crazy thing...people are too down on picking #14

32 posts in this topic

Got a couple questions for you all to start:

- how many DTs have been picked in the top 10 in the last 5 drafts?

- as of late, how many DTs go in the first round on average?

If you answered anything but 0 to the first question - whoops. That's right. The last time a DT was picked in the top 10 was freaking 2011.

As a matter of fact, just over 2 DTs usually go in the first round. The most recently has been 4.

Just saying.

Looking at mocks and I just can't see it shaking out how people think, with 4 or 5 DTs going top 10. Last time I remember projections like that being made was...what, 2013? Saw Floyd, Richardson, and Lotulelei all mocked top 5. Instead they got picked at 13, 14, and 23.

What about this last year? Vita Vea was a lock...dropped to 12. Donald went at 13. Poe and Cox went at 11 and 12. It's a trend for DTs and safeties...look at Derwin James (17) and Malik Hooker (15). 2017 didn't have one DT drafted in the first.

So, the next time you try to convince someone that we should've tanked because all the good DTs are out of reach now...remember. Quinnen Williams falling to 14 wouldn't be unprecedented. If anything, it's more likely than 2 or 3 guys going in the top 5 (or even 10).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Got a couple questions for you all to start:

- how many DTs have been picked in the top 10 in the last 5 drafts?

- as of late, how many DTs go in the first round on average?

If you answered anything but 0 to the first question - whoops. That's right. The last time a DT was picked in the 1st round was freaking 2011.

As a matter of fact, just over 2 DTs usually go in the first round. The most recently has been 4.

Just saying.

Looking at mocks and I just can't see it shaking out how people think, with 4 or 5 DTs going top 10. Last time I remember projections like that being made was...what, 2013? Saw Floyd, Richardson, and Lotulelei all mocked top 5. Instead they got picked at 13, 14, and 23.

What about this last year? Vita Vea was a lock...dropped to 12. Donald went at 13. Poe and Cox went at 11 and 12. It's a trend for DTs and safeties...look at Derwin James (17) and Malik Hooker (15). 2017 didn't have one DT drafted in the first.

So, the next time you try to convince someone that we should've tanked because all the good DTs are out of reach now...remember. Quinnen Williams falling to 14 wouldn't be unprecedented. If anything, it's more likely than 2 or 3 guys going in the top 5 (or even 10).

I'm with you on this but this year MIGHT be different because the QB class sucks. So that may move DT's up 5 or so slots. We'll see...

egoprime II and kiwifalcon like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Previous draft picks at #14:

2018: Marcus Davenport, DE (NO) 
2017: Derek Barnett, DE (PHI)
2016: Karl Joseph, S (OAK)
2015: Devante Parker, WR (MIA)
2014: Kyle Fuller, CB (CHI)
2013: Star Lotulelei, DT (CAR)
2012: Michael Brockers, DT (STL/LA)
2011: Robert Quinn, DE (STL/LA)
2010: Earl Thomas, S (SEA)
2009: Malcom Jenkins, S (NO)

So there have been several good picks at the position. I don't know a ton about Karl Joseph, but his PFF grade was above average, so I think it's safe to say he hasn't been a complete flop. I think Parker is the only guy on this list that's completely sucked. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, OilFuturesTrader19 said:

I'm with you on this but this year MIGHT be different because the QB class sucks. So that may move DT's up 5 or so slots. We'll see...

I mean, that's true, but there are several QB needy teams in the top 10 and a weak FA market. A couple teams will reach - no doubt in my mind about that.

Regardless, I think a MAX of two DTs get taken top 10. And there are several guys who would go high in any other draft. Guys always slip...period.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Francis York Morgan said:

Got a couple questions for you all to start:

- how many DTs have been picked in the top 10 in the last 5 drafts?

- as of late, how many DTs go in the first round on average?

If you answered anything but 0 to the first question - whoops. That's right. The last time a DT was picked in the 1st round was freaking 2011.

As a matter of fact, just over 2 DTs usually go in the first round. The most recently has been 4.

Just saying.

Looking at mocks and I just can't see it shaking out how people think, with 4 or 5 DTs going top 10. Last time I remember projections like that being made was...what, 2013? Saw Floyd, Richardson, and Lotulelei all mocked top 5. Instead they got picked at 13, 14, and 23.

What about this last year? Vita Vea was a lock...dropped to 12. Donald went at 13. Poe and Cox went at 11 and 12. It's a trend for DTs and safeties...look at Derwin James (17) and Malik Hooker (15). 2017 didn't have one DT drafted in the first.

So, the next time you try to convince someone that we should've tanked because all the good DTs are out of reach now...remember. Quinnen Williams falling to 14 wouldn't be unprecedented. If anything, it's more likely than 2 or 3 guys going in the top 5 (or even 10).

Great post! and when you consider the 1 is young and just has a single very good season, 2 has a youtube video of him beating a woman in the street and 3 playing for a smaller school and being undersized himself, there may be teams who find value in different positions because the cost is too high for some of the risk with these guys. lets hope Jeff drops to us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Generally, it's easier to draft BPA if your starting draft position is higher. Generally. There are exceptions to that rule.

We may not draft a DT if a better player is there. The chances of a better player being there if we had a high draft pick is significantly higher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, tl;dr said:

Previous draft picks at #14:

2018: Marcus Davenport, DE (NO) 
2017: Derek Barnett, DE (PHI)
2016: Karl Joseph, S (OAK)
2015: Devante Parker, WR (MIA)
2014: Kyle Fuller, CB (CHI)
2013: Star Lotulelei, DT (CAR)
2012: Michael Brockers, DT (STL/LA)
2011: Robert Quinn, DE (STL/LA)
2010: Earl Thomas, S (SEA)
2009: Malcom Jenkins, S (NO)

So there have been several good picks at the position. I don't know a ton about Karl Joseph, but his PFF grade was above average, so I think it's safe to say he hasn't been a complete flop. I think Parker is the only guy on this list that's completely sucked. 

Aaron Donald we passed over for Jake and was 13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not a draft guru, just to be clear, but are there not any good offensive linemen in this draft? 

If they're going anywhere other than OL early in this draft they'd better empty the checking account signing free agents.  Matt Ryan is not going to play forever, and gee, what a nice idea, to actually hire some players capable of protecting him. 

Paying a quarterback the kind of money Ryan is making, and then not bothering to get blockers for him, is the stupidest god.dm thing you could do as a football team. 

aer2033, Bigbenright and Ergo Proxy like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, octoslash said:

I'm not a draft guru, just to be clear, but are there not any good offensive linemen in this draft? 

If they're going anywhere other than OL early in this draft they'd better empty the checking account signing free agents.  Matt Ryan is not going to play forever, and gee, what a nice idea, to actually hire some players capable of protecting him. 

Paying a quarterback the kind of money Ryan is making, and then not bothering to get blockers for him, is the stupidest god.dm thing you could do as a football team. 

They could go OL early, but it's likely not going to be BPA in the 1st. They might do it, but the combine will determine a lot. In the 2nd it's more likely. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, octoslash said:

I'm not a draft guru, just to be clear, but are there not any good offensive linemen in this draft? 

If they're going anywhere other than OL early in this draft they'd better empty the checking account signing free agents.  Matt Ryan is not going to play forever, and gee, what a nice idea, to actually hire some players capable of protecting him. 

Paying a quarterback the kind of money Ryan is making, and then not bothering to get blockers for him, is the stupidest god.dm thing you could do as a football team. 

I like what you said,, I do like getting everything in the draft except the OL.. Just so we don't take a chance and miss on the OL.. if we miss on that ,, We are done before we get started.... Nuff said..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, droopy1592 said:

Aaron Donald we passed over for Jake and was 13

That's true, but you have to remember the situation we were in @ OL when that draft came around.

Matt might not have made it through another season healthy afterwards.

I think it was unanimous that we needed protection on the left side to start with.

THEN we could focus on D.

Stryka likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Statick said:

Ignore them. Fans are fickle up until draft day.

They will make 75 mock drafts with every reasonable  combination of players and then  say that they were right

Ergo Proxy likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is so hard to understand?  The higher you pick in the 1st round, the more likely you are to get the player you want. 

Bigbenright likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HouseofEuphoria said:

That's true, but you have to remember the situation we were in @ OL when that draft came around.

Matt might not have made it through another season healthy afterwards.

I think it was unanimous that we needed protection on the left side to start with.

THEN we could focus on D.

So you're actually saying Matthews was a better pick than Donald? There is so much FAIL in that post in spite of your reasoning. No how no way no time ever would I rather have Matthews over Donald knowing what we know now. Matt would still be fine. To say what you did with hindsight doesn't even make sense. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

Lol. You’re beating a dead horse now. The tanker crew has moved on. So should you. Christian Wilkins or Jeffrey Simmons please. 

I'm just pointing out an interesting tidbit. I had no idea no DT had been taken in the top 10 since 2011.

There'll be some studs. I'm excited for the draft.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is A LOT of defensive line help this year. Hopefully we can figure out RT & both G spot in FA so that we can go defensive line round 1 and 2.

When was the last time we weren’t talking about the defensive line in round 1?

Ergo Proxy and gazoo like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0