Pollack's Dream, and Why It Won't Work

[JDFIII 158]

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2019/1/3/18165348/a-j-pollock-seeks-a-contract-similar-to-lorenzo-cains-is-he-worth-it

 

This article, I believe, puts a great measure on why teams like the Braves will wait out Pollack, and others that are asking for the Moon and Stars in Free Agency. He is good, but, he is not Cain, and should not be paid as such.

[ATLBrave 2,702]

If he could stay healthy, he’d easily be worth that contract. His peak is about the same as Cain’s, maybe a little higher offensively while giving up some defensive value, but the man has played 150 games ONCE.

[jidady 4,577]

Exactly. There's some alternate dimension where we acquired him instead of Ender. I have no idea how that would have worked out for us, but I suspect he'd have had a much healthier career. He's seemed cursed in Arizona.

[ATL Fan in the DMV 833]

Last three years games played: 12, 112, 113.

Good player when healthy? Yes. Worth the risk? Likely not.

I mean, his cost would have to come way, way down...and he's already 31.

Hard pass.

[falconsd56 15,623]

10 hours ago, jidady said:

Exactly. There's some alternate dimension where we acquired him instead of Ender. I have no idea how that would have worked out for us, but I suspect he'd have had a much healthier career. He's seemed cursed in Arizona.

When I lived in Phoenix ,one of the insider guys mentioned that the tried to get BOTH Ender and Pollack

[g-dawg 31,757]

11 hours ago, falconsd56 said:

When I lived in Phoenix ,one of the insider guys mentioned that the tried to get BOTH Ender and Pollack

I had a great two years in PHX in mid 90’s when I was single, in my 20’s and on long-term work assignment.

The women, the golf, the expense account - dayum that was fun!

[jidady 4,577]

15 hours ago, falconsd56 said:

When I lived in Phoenix ,one of the insider guys mentioned that the tried to get BOTH Ender and Pollack

I remember that all of the early rumors linked us to AJ, but nobody thought Arizona would trade him. It would have been better for him and probably Arizona if they had. I'm not sure about Atlanta. Ender's such a stranger player. He's only got a .733 OPS for us, but he's given us 4.7 in dWAR, which is terrific.

[falconsd56 15,623]

15 minutes ago, jidady said:

I remember that all of the early rumors linked us to AJ, but nobody thought Arizona would trade him. It would have been better for him and probably Arizona if they had. I'm not sure about Atlanta. Ender's such a stranger player. He's only got a .733 OPS for us, but he's given us 4.7 in dWAR, which is terrific.

He is just a different hitter in the first half......it seems like as soon as the break happens a switch turns on.

 

If he could just find that happy medium

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

On 1/4/2019 at 9:20 AM, ATLBrave said:

If he could stay healthy, he’d easily be worth that contract. His peak is about the same as Cain’s, maybe a little higher offensively while giving up some defensive value, but the man has played 150 games ONCE.

I think Cain is a better player than Pollock, and hitter in the last few years. Pollock hits for more power but Cain gets on base at a much higher rate.

[ATLBrave 2,702]

7 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I think Cain is a better player than Pollock, and hitter in the last few years. Pollock hits for more power but Cain gets on base at a much higher rate.

Hence the part about his peak. Pollock’s two best seasons offensively are better than Cain’s. 

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

23 minutes ago, ATLBrave said:

Hence the part about his peak. Pollock’s two best seasons offensively are better than Cain’s. 

A.J. Pollock screams Nate McLouth to me. The similarities are striking.

[ATLBrave 2,702]

9 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

A.J. Pollock screams Nate McLouth to me. The similarities are striking.

Not really. Pollock’s downfall has been his long list of injuries. McLouth had one truly great outlier season, whereas, even through the injuries, Pollock has shown the ability to be an impact bat when he’s on the field. And that best season for McLouth was a 2.4 win year, while Pollock outperformed that in all but two seasons. 

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

Just now, ATLBrave said:

Not really. Pollock’s downfall has been his long list of injuries. McLouth had one truly great outlier season, whereas, even through the injuries, Pollock has shown the ability to be an impact bat when he’s on the field. 

So much of Pollock's success is because of his park. He's the Diamondbacks version of Charlie Blackmon, but at least Blackmon is still good on the road, just not MVP level like he is at Coors. Pollock's road numbers for his career are pretty bad. Even when you isolate his best seasons except for his overall best season (2015) when he actually posted better numbers on the road. IMO he's not worth anywhere near what his asking price is based on what he's done from 2016-2018 when he's actually been on the field. I don't ever see the 2014-15 version of Pollock coming back. Those are outliers which is why I compared him to McLouth who had a year and a half of great work with the Pirates prior to the Braves trading for him. Also just like McLouth, Pollock has trouble staying on the field.

[ATLBrave 2,702]

10 hours ago, Falconsfan567 said:

So much of Pollock's success is because of his park. He's the Diamondbacks version of Charlie Blackmon, but at least Blackmon is still good on the road, just not MVP level like he is at Coors. Pollock's road numbers for his career are pretty bad. Even when you isolate his best seasons except for his overall best season (2015) when he actually posted better numbers on the road. IMO he's not worth anywhere near what his asking price is based on what he's done from 2016-2018 when he's actually been on the field. I don't ever see the 2014-15 version of Pollock coming back. Those are outliers which is why I compared him to McLouth who had a year and a half of great work with the Pirates prior to the Braves trading for him. Also just like McLouth, Pollock has trouble staying on the field.

He’s had season where he’s performed well on the road and some he has not. And despite “not being worth what he’s asking”, he’s been pretty **** valuable. Pollock’s been a multi-win player pretty much every season besides his rookie year and the season where he played in 12 games. If he was healthy, I’d imagine he would consistently be a 4.5-5 WAR player (coincidentally, his one full season saw him post a 7.2 WAR). All that being said, these are hypotheticals. He hasn’t been healthy and I wouldn’t pay him that type of money without guaranteeing 145+ games a year, which is impossible to do. 

[K26dp 4,152]

A consistent 3-win player would be very useful. Another 4+ WAR OF would be amazing.

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

18 hours ago, ATLBrave said:

He’s had season where he’s performed well on the road and some he has not. And despite “not being worth what he’s asking”, he’s been pretty **** valuable. Pollock’s been a multi-win player pretty much every season besides his rookie year and the season where he played in 12 games. If he was healthy, I’d imagine he would consistently be a 4.5-5 WAR player (coincidentally, his one full season saw him post a 7.2 WAR). All that being said, these are hypotheticals. He hasn’t been healthy and I wouldn’t pay him that type of money without guaranteeing 145+ games a year, which is impossible to do. 

If he ever comes down on his asking price then it would be worth it. I hope you're not thinking I was saying that he wasn't a valuable player. I would just take Cain over him in and I don't think it's really that close honestly. I like Cain's offensive profile better because he gets on base more and they're about equals defensively.

I'm still stunned that the Astros got Michael Brantley for a steal. Brantley was my #1 wish in free agency.

[JDFIII 158]

10 hours ago, K26dp said:

A consistent 3-win player would be very useful. Another 4+ WAR OF would be amazing.

He could be a great fit, if he can stay healthy. The article specifically compares contract values, and that was the point of the post. If he were to lower his ask, he may be a very good fit for us. 

[ATL Fan in the DMV 833]

I'm really beginning to think that we end up with Pollock to fill our COF spot with some pop hole.

What kind of realistic deal would you be happy with for the Braves?

[JDFIII 158]

7 hours ago, ATL Fan in the DMV said:

I'm really beginning to think that we end up with Pollock to fill our COF spot with some pop hole.

What kind of realistic deal would you be happy with for the Braves?

3 and 40 would be a good price for both. We get the WAR when he is healthy, and he gets paid when he is not. I don't think I would want to go over 3 years though. Players who are health risks, do not get better, heath-wise, with age.

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

7 hours ago, JDFIII said:

3 and 40 would be a good price for both. We get the WAR when he is healthy, and he gets paid when he is not. I don't think I would want to go over 3 years though. Players who are health risks, do not get better, heath-wise, with age.

I could live with that. It's a good deal for both sides.

[K26dp 4,152]

 

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

I like Andy's suggestion better!! The Nick Markakis deal! Make it happen!!

[K26dp 4,152]

Yeah, I doubt Pollock would take it.

[Falconsfan567 29,288]

15 minutes ago, K26dp said:

Yeah, I doubt Pollock would take it.

Yep. No way he takes that major of a discount. He'll still get at least $50M somewhere.