pa_falcon_fan

OC candidate comparison

95 posts in this topic

I decided to do an apples to apples comparison using only Offensive Coordinator stats (no head coaching years).  I also included who they had to work with at QB and RB so there is at least a little bit of additional perspective.  

The results are very telling and point to one candidate as being the most consistently good over their career.   So.. in no particular order:

** UPDATED - Added Mike Mularkey **

** Numbers pulled from Pro Football Reference**

===========================
Dirk Koetter
===========================

2012 
    8th total yards
    8th passing yards (Ryan)
    29th rushing yards (This was the "Michael Turner hit a wall" season)
    7th in points
    6.1% Offensive DVOA

2013
    14th total yards
    7th passing yards (Ryan)
    32nd rushing yards ("End of the road Steven Jackson" year one)
    20th in points
    3.2% Offensive DVOA

2014
    8th total yards 
    5th passing yards (Ryan)
    24th rushing yards ("End of the road Steven Jackson" year two)
    12th in points
    7.2% Offensive DVOA

2015 (BUCS with Koetter as OC)
    5th total yards 
    17th passing yards(Jamis Winston)
    5th rushing yards (Doug Martin)
    20th in points
    -1.1% Offensive DVOA

===========================
Bevell
===========================

2006 (Vikings)
    23rd total yards 
    18th passing yards (Musical chairs at QB)
    16th rushing yards (Chester Taylor)
    26th points
    -17.9% Offensive DVOA

2007
    13th total yards
    28th passing yards (Tarvaris Jackson)
    1st rushing yards (Adrian Peterson rookie year)    
    15th points
    -0.8% Offensive DVOA

2008
    17th total yards
    25th passing yards (Gus Frerotte)
    1st rushing yards (Adrian Peterson)    
    15th points
    -9.9% Offensive DVOA

2009
    5th total yards
    8th passing (Brett Favre)
    13th rushing (Adrian Peterson)
    2nd points
    12.9% Offensive DVOA

2010
    23rd total yards
    26th passing yards (Brett Favre hit the wall)
    10th rushing yards (Adrian Peterson)
    29th points
    -15.1% Offensive DVOA

2011 (Moved to Seahawks)
    28th total yards 
    22nd passing yards (Tarvaris Jackson)
    21st rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    23rd in points
    -8.7% Offensive DVOA

2012
    17th total yards 
    27th passing yards (Russell Wilson rookie year)
    3rd rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    9th in points
    18.5% Offensive DVOA

2013 (Won Super Bowl)
    18th total yards 
    26th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    4th rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    8th in points
    9.4% Offensive DVOA

2014 (Lost Super Bowl)
    9th total yards 
    27th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    1st rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    10th in points
    16.8% Offensive DVOA

2015
    4th total yards
    20th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    3rd rushing yards (Thomas Rawls - Lynch hurt, played 7 games)
    4th in points
    18.7% Offensive DVOA

2016
    12th total yards
    10th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    25th rushing yards (Christine Michael/Thomas Rawls)
    18th in points
    -2.6% Offensive DVOA

2017
    15th total yards
    14th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    23rd rushing yards (Eddie Lacy/Thomas Rawls)
    11th in points
    2.0% Offensive DVOA

===========================
Gary Kubiak
===========================

Broncos
1995 (Broncos) 
    3rd total yards
    7th passing yards (John Elway)
    5th rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    9th in points
    18.8% Offensive DVOA

1996
    1st total yards
    13th passing yards (John Elway)
    1st rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    4th in points
    13.6% Offensive DVOA

1997 (Won Super Bowl)
    1st total yards
    9th passing yards (John Elway)
    4th rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    1st in points
    19.4% Offensive DVOA

1998 (Won Super Bowl)
    3rd total yards
    7th passing yards (John Elway)
    2nd rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    2nd in points
    34.5% Offensive DVOA

1999
    14th total yards
    15th passing yards (Brian Griese)
    12th rushing yards (Olandis Gary)
    18th in points
    3.4% Offensive DVOA

2000
    2nd total yards
    3rd passing yards (Brian Griese)
    3rd rushing yards (Mike Anderson)
    2nd in points
    19.6% Offensive DVOA

2001
    22nd total yards
    25th passing yards (Brian Griese missed part of season)
    10th rushing yards (Mike Anderson)
    10th in points
    0.8% Offensive DVOA

2002
    3rd total yards
    8th passing yards (Brian Griese missed part of season)
    5th rushing yards (Clinton Portis)
    7th in points
    16.6% Offensive DVOA

2003
    7th total yards
    22nd passing yards (Jake Plummer and a bunch of nobodies)
    2nd rushing yards (Clinton Portis)
    10th in points
    9.4% Offensive DVOA
    
2004
    5th total yards
    6th passing yards (Jake Plummer)
    4th rushing yards (Reuben Droughns)
    9th in points
    13.8% Offensive DVOA

2005
    5th total yards
    18th passing yards (Jake Plummer)
    2th rushing yards (Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell)
    7th in points
    26.9% Offensive DVOA

2015 (Won Super Bowl as Head Coach)

2014 (Ravens)
    12th total yards
    13th passing yards (Joe Flacco)
    8th rushing yards (Justin Forsett)
    8th in points
    9.4%  Offensive DVOA

 

===========================
Mike Mularkey
===========================

Pittsburgh
2001
    3rd total yards
    21st passing yards (Kordell Stewart)
    1st rushing yards (Jerome Bettis)
    7th in points
    14.7% Offensive DVOA

2002
    5th total yards
    7st passing yards (Tommy Maddox)
    9th rushing yards (Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue)
    8th in points
    6.6%  Offensive DVOA

2003
    22nd total yards
    14th passing yards (Tommy Maddox)
    31st rushing yards (Jerome Bettis/Amos Zereoue)
    19th in points
    6.6%  Offensive DVOA

Dolphins
2006
    20th total yards
    14th passing yards (Joey Harrington/Daunte Culpepper)
    29th rushing yards (Ronnie Brown)
    29th in points
    -10.0%  Offensive DVOA

Atlanta
2008
    6th total yards
    14th passing yards (Ryan rookie year)
    2nd rushing yards (Michael Turner)
    10th in points
    8.5% Offensive DVOA

2009
    16th total yards
    14th passing yards (Ryan/Chris Redman)
    15th rushing yards (Michael Turner/Jason Snelling)
    13th in points
    5.9%  Offensive DVOA

2010
    16th total yards
    15th passing yards (Ryan)
    12th rushing yards (Michael Turner)
    5th in points
    8.0%  Offensive DVOA

2011
    10th total yards
    8th passing yards (Ryan)
    17th rushing yards (Michael Turner)
    7th in points
    6.1%  Offensive DVOA

===================================================

The clear head and shoulders above the rest winner is Kubiak.  Top 10 in scoring all but 1 year of his entire OC history.  Top 10 in rushing nearly every year, regardless of the RB.   Top half of the league in passing the majority of his OC history despite years with Jake Plummer and Brian Greise at QB.   11 straight years with positive DVOA.

I know the Broncos want him back, but Atlanta needs to push hard to get him.

Koetter:   His running game sucked when he was here.. but look at what he was working with (a finished Michael Turner, a finished Steven Jackson, and a rookie Freeman).  He revived Doug Martin's career and got his 2nd best season out of him.    

Bevell:  I'm NOT anti-Bevell, he has had some really good years with some crap talent (especially on his o-line) but based on the numbers his offenses were all over the map (6 of 12 years with negative DVOA).  Sure, he rode Lynch to two Super Bowls (1 win) and Adrian Peterson for a few good offensive years...  but despite him pushing to draft Russell Wilson it took him 5 years to get Wilson to be a decent passer.   Other than 2009 (Brett Favre's emptying his tank), nothing really impresses me.  

Mike Mularkey:  I really am not sure what to make of this one.  Yardage and total offense are average but he does have 7 out of 8 years with positive DVOA. 

**Note: If anyone else starts getting serious consideration I'll add them as well**

** UPDATED - Added Mike Mularkey **

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Can you show DVOA or per drive stats? Personally I think the totals you have are useless and don't compare apples to apples. 

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Well done on getting the stats. I know Kubiak went to Houston as head coach, did he call his own offense then? I can't remember.

But from the stats you have, Kubiak looks the best option. Koetter averages around 13th in points per game, Bevell is all over the place.

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1 minute ago, vel said:

Can you show DVOA or per drive stats? Personally I think the totals you have are useless and don't compare apples to apples. 

Apples to apples.. comparing the same things.. which is what I did.  They may be Granny Smiths and you prefer Golden Delicious, but they are still both apples.. you just prefer a different type.

That said, I can take a look and see what I can find later.  I have meeting the rest of the work day so it will have to be this evening.  

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6 minutes ago, BlazerSlayer said:

Well done on getting the stats. I know Kubiak went to Houston as head coach, did he call his own offense then? I can't remember.

But from the stats you have, Kubiak looks the best option. Koetter averages around 13th in points per game, Bevell is all over the place.

I deliberately avoided offensive stats as a head coach for both Koetter and Kubiak.  Both had OCs that ran their offense for them (although I am sure they had input into how things were done) so I don't think HC stats count as much since they aren't concentrating on the offense like they would be as an OC.

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1 minute ago, quotemokc said:

Koetter was a good OC when he was here.

Problem was he wasn't give enough pieces to succeed beyond 2012.

 

Yep. Wasn't given enough pieces and had to compensate for Mike Smiths horrible D. 

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20 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

I decided to do an apples to apples comparison using only Offensive Coordinator stats (no head coaching years).  I also included who they had to work with at QB and RB so there is at least a little bit of additional perspective.  

The results are very telling and point to one candidate as being the most consistently good over their career.   So.. in no particular order:

** Numbers pulled from Pro Football Reference**

===========================
Dirk Koetter
===========================

2012 
    8th total yards
    8th passing yards (Ryan)
    29th rushing yards (This was the "Michael Turner hit a wall" season)
    7th in points

2013
    14th total yards
    7th passing yards (Ryan)
    32nd rushing yards ("End of the road Steven Jackson" year one)
    20th in points

2014
    8th total yards 
    5th passing yards (Ryan)
    24th rushing yards ("End of the road Steven Jackson" year two)
    12th in points

2015 (Post-Koetter)
    7th total yards
    6th passing yards (Ryan)
    18th rushing yards (Freeman's rookie year)
    21st in points

2015 (BUCS with Koetter as OC)
    5th total yards 
    17th passing yards(Jamis Winston)
    5th rushing yards (Doug Martin)
    20th in points

 

===========================
Bevell
===========================

2006 (Vikings)
    23rd total yards 
    18th passing yards (Musical chairs at QB)
    16th rushing yards (Chester Taylor)
    26th points

2007
    13th total yards
    28th passing yards (Tarvaris Jackson)
    1st rushing yards (Adrian Peterson rookie year)    
    15th points

2008
    17th total yards
    25th passing yards (Gus Frerotte)
    1st rushing yards (Adrian Peterson)    
    15th points

2009
    5th total yards
    8th passing (Brett Favre)
    13th rushing (Adrian Peterson)
    2nd points

2010
    23rd total yards
    26th passing yards (Brett Favre hit the wall)
    10th rushing yards (Adrian Peterson)
    29th points

2011 (Moved to Seahawks)
    28th total yards 
    22nd passing yards (Tarvaris Jackson)
    21st rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    23rd in points

2012
    17th total yards 
    27th passing yards (Russell Wilson rookie year)
    3rd rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    9th in points

2013 (Won Super Bowl)
    18th total yards 
    26th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    4th rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    8th in points

2014 (Lost Super Bowl)
    9th total yards 
    27th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    1st rushing yards (Marshawn Lynch)
    10th in points

2015
    4th total yards
    20th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    3rd rushing yards (Thomas Rawls - Lynch hurt, played 7 games)
    4th in points

2016
    12th total yards
    10th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    25th rushing yards (Christine Michael/Thomas Rawls)
    18th in points    

2017
    15th total yards
    14th passing yards (Russell Wilson)
    23rd rushing yards (Eddie Lacy/Thomas Rawls)
    11th in points    

 

===========================
Gary Kubiak
===========================

Broncos
1995 (Broncos) 
    3rd total yards
    7th passing yards (John Elway)
    5th rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    9th in points

1996
    1st total yards
    13th passing yards (John Elway)
    1st rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    4th in points

1997 (Won Super Bowl)
    1st total yards
    9th passing yards (John Elway)
    4th rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    1st in points

1998 
    3rd total yards
    7th passing yards (John Elway)
    2nd rushing yards (Terrell Davis)
    2nd in points

1999
    14th total yards
    15th passing yards (Brian Griese)
    12th rushing yards (Olandis Gary)
    18th in points

2000
    2nd total yards
    3rd passing yards (Brian Griese)
    3rd rushing yards (Mike Anderson)
    2nd in points

2001
    22nd total yards
    25th passing yards (Brian Griese missed part of season)
    10th rushing yards (Mike Anderson)
    10th in points

2002
    3rd total yards
    8th passing yards (Brian Griese missed part of season)
    5th rushing yards (Clinton Portis)
    7th in points

2003
    7th total yards
    22nd passing yards (Jake Plummer and a bunch of nobodies)
    2nd rushing yards (Clinton Portis)
    10th in points

2004
    5th total yards
    6th passing yards (Jake Plummer)
    4th rushing yards (Reuben Droughns)
    9th in points

2005
    5th total yards
    18th passing yards (Jake Plummer)
    2th rushing yards (Mike Anderson/Tatum Bell)
    7th in points

2015 (Won Super Bowl as Head Coach)

2014 (Ravens)
    12th total yards
    13th passing yards (Joe Flacco)
    8th rushing yards (Justin Forsett)
    8th in points

===================================================

The clear head and shoulders above the rest winner is Kubiak.  Top 10 in scoring all but 1 year of his entire OC history.  Top 10 in rushing nearly every year, regardless of the RB.   Top half of the league in passing the majority of his OC history despite years with Jake Plummer and Brian Greise at QB.  

I know the Broncos want him back as OC, but Atlanta needs to push hard to get him.  

If we fail to get Kubiak, I think Koetter is the next best option.   Yes, his running game sucked when he was here.. but look at what he was working with (a finished Michael Turner, a finished Steven Jackson, and a rookie Freeman).  He revived Doug Martin's career and got his 2nd best season out of him.  

As for Bevell, he scares me.   His offenses were all over the map.  Sure, he rode Lynch to two Super Bowls (1 win) and Adrian Peterson for a few good offensive years...  but despite him pushing to draft Russell Wilson it took him 5 years to get Wilson to be a decent passer.   Other than 2009 (Brett Favre's emptying his tank), nothing really impresses me.  

**Note: If anyone else starts getting serious consideration I'll add them as well**

interesting stats the only question is who actually say yes to the job.

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11 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

Apples to apples.. comparing the same things.. which is what I did.  They may be Granny Smiths and you prefer Golden Delicious, but they are still both apples.. you just prefer a different type.

That said, I can take a look and see what I can find later.  I have meeting the rest of the work day so it will have to be this evening.  

Games aren't the same for every team. Opponents aren't the same for every team. So, no it is not. If one offense played a total of 160 drives and another played 190 drives total for the season, is judging their total production equal? No, because one team has 30 more drives than the other, which can skew rankings when looking solely at the total production. 

If one offense had an easy strength of schedule in terms of the defenses they faced, wouldn't that make them look good? Sark had no problem scoring vs bad defenses, which is what skews his total rankings. He averaged 17 vs playoff caliber teams this year, which would rank bottom 3.

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Good job. Appreciate the time and trouble you took to put this together so everybody has their OC stats to check out. I wanted Kubiak from the jump, just knowing what a perfect fit he is for our offensive players in this scheme.

Looking at the numbers just makes the choice a more emphatic no-brainer.  If Blank, the FO and Quinn are really serious about getting a Super Bowl win, they really need to make this happen. Do whatever it takes and pay whatever you have to pay to get him in here ~ on a long-term basis.

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3 minutes ago, vel said:

Games aren't the same for every team. Opponents aren't the same for every team. So, no it is not. If one offense played a total of 160 drives and another played 190 drives total for the season, is judging their total production equal? No, because one team has 30 more drives than the other, which can skew rankings when looking solely at the total production. 

Total yards gained and given up has to be one of the most meaningless stats in all of sports. In general counting stats in football are pretty useless because of the extremely small sample size and the fact teams have drastically different schedules. The very least one can do is adjust to a per posession basis as you mentioned, but that is still not a great indicator of how good a team was. 

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1 minute ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

vel:  Is this the kind of thing you're looking for?  I've never really delved into DVOA before so I want to make sure I'm finding you the right apples so to speak.   Are you looking for Offensive DVOA or Adjusted DVOA?

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1995

Offensive DVOA. Here is why:

Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average.

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value.

Yes, it's more complicated than just total offense, etc. But it's true statistics. When there is no baseline, you get incorrect comparisons. That's the problem with just looking at totals. If we got to play the Cardinals twice, our defense could have put up 14 sacks in two games, massively skewing our totals but we all would have discounted it because "it was the Cardinals". That's what this is accounting for. 

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Well done for doing this, pa_falcon_fan. It makes a change from the usual 'fire him, hire him!' type of post. While some stats may not be ideal, it does shed some light on options. Although in reality, the Falcons will hire who they want and we will have to live with it.

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Just now, Dr Long Shot said:

Total yards gained and given up has to be one of the most meaningless stats in all of sports. In general counting stats in football are pretty useless because of the extremely small sample size and the fact teams have drastically different schedules. The very least one can do is adjust to a per posession basis as you mentioned, but that is still not a great indicator of how good a team was. 

Oh there is definitely no perfect stat. I just think you have to be more granular when making comparisons like this. Look at our total sacks for instance. We had 42, which puts us at 13th overall. If you look solely at rankings as a judge, that basically says we had a better pass rush than Minnesota and Philadelphia. I HIGHLY doubt anybody is taking our DL over either of those teams. 

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Very nice info.  I think Bevell gets a bad wrap.  Not saying he should be the hire, but from 2013 his offensive DVOA was 7th, 5th, 1st & 16th.  Then consider during that time the defense assumed 65% of the CAP and the OL got s measly $7,000,000 total thrown its way 

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26 minutes ago, vel said:

Games aren't the same for every team. Opponents aren't the same for every team. So, no it is not. If one offense played a total of 160 drives and another played 190 drives total for the season, is judging their total production equal? No, because one team has 30 more drives than the other, which can skew rankings when looking solely at the total production. 

If one offense had an easy strength of schedule in terms of the defenses they faced, wouldn't that make them look good? Sark had no problem scoring vs bad defenses, which is what skews his total rankings. He averaged 17 vs playoff caliber teams this year, which would rank bottom 3.

vel - How you like them apples?  :)  I had a meeting get cancelled so I had a few extra minutes and added the offensive DVOA.   If you want rankings as well as the %s I'll have to go back through... but I have to prepare for my next meeting so that won't happen now.

Still doesn't really change my opinion.  Bevell was in the negative 6 out of 12 years.  

Koetter isn't great, but he only had one negative score in 4 years as an OC.

Kubiak?  ZERO years in the negative in 11 years as an OC.

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48 minutes ago, vel said:

Games aren't the same for every team. Opponents aren't the same for every team. So, no it is not. If one offense played a total of 160 drives and another played 190 drives total for the season, is judging their total production equal? No, because one team has 30 more drives than the other, which can skew rankings when looking solely at the total production. 

If one offense had an easy strength of schedule in terms of the defenses they faced, wouldn't that make them look good? Sark had no problem scoring vs bad defenses, which is what skews his total rankings. He averaged 17 vs playoff caliber teams this year, which would rank bottom 3.

Agreed. I would add talent in personnel (particularly at QB)  is another key variable that would have to be taken into consideration. The sign of a good coach to me is, Who got more out of less?...all which comes back to your strength of schedule comment.

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23 minutes ago, vel said:

Oh there is definitely no perfect stat. I just think you have to be more granular when making comparisons like this. Look at our total sacks for instance. We had 42, which puts us at 13th overall. If you look solely at rankings as a judge, that basically says we had a better pass rush than Minnesota and Philadelphia. I HIGHLY doubt anybody is taking our DL over either of those teams. 

Interesting.  I am usually one to dismiss stats without context but it didn't bother me here because even Offensive DVOA really would not work here...especially since Kubiak's stuff is almost from a different generation of football.  I think the only takeaway is that Kubiak got more out of what he had.  I still don't care who we hire but I'm actually softening on the idea of Koetter.   He has easily had the most success in the past five years (modern football era).

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20 minutes ago, pa_falcon_fan said:

vel - How you like them apples?  :)  I had a meeting get cancelled so I had a few extra minutes and added the offensive DVOA.   If you want rankings as well as the %s I'll have to go back through... but I have to prepare for my next meeting so that won't happen now.

Still doesn't really change my opinion.  Bevell was in the negative 6 out of 12 years.  

Koetter isn't great, but he only had one negative score in 4 years as an OC.

Kubiak?  ZERO years in the negative in 11 years as an OC.

Slam dunk.

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