Ergo Proxy

A look ahead to FA

97 posts in this topic

On 1/1/2019 at 10:31 PM, kiwifalcon said:

See if I’m Jarretts agent I think different with the games revenues increasing at a rate it’s money grab in all essence.

You say GJ is only worth this well how is it someone like Jimmy G gets 27 per after 10 starts or Kirk Cousins get 90 mill guaranteed :shrug:

Interior pass rush is where this league is going I’ll say it now Jarretts getting 15 plus per on average he’s right on the cusp of being one of thee top guys he’s getting paid 100%.

Comparing any position to the ridiculous contracts the QBs get is inaccurate. I do understand your argument though.

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:46 AM, Falcanuck said:

Does anyone know if we still get a comp pick if Vic’s option is rescinded and he signs for big money elsewhere?

That’s a good question. I thought I read recently we do not? Because we already picked up the option? I may be remembering wrong or that poster gave bad info.

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No way Beasley is in a Falcons uniform for anywhere close to 12m. And If someone wants to.give him that then sucks for them

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On 1/1/2019 at 1:50 PM, Ergo Proxy said:

Just digging around spotrac and we got potential cuts that would free up space before FA starts. (Some discussed in threads past)

Here is the 2019 projected cap hits:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/cap/2019/

Alford would save $7.9M on the cap early; as post 6/1 only yields $600k more (by splitting dead money between 19/20 vs all on 19 cap) and would let us have more flexibility for the start of UFA.

Brooks Reed would yield $4.5M straight off of his projected $5.44M cap hit.

The only looming cut worth being post-6/1 designated is Schraeder; who would still have a dead cap of $1.3M (19) and $2.5M (20) with a savings for 19 of $6.45M. So, it's possible they restructure him instead, but if Ty is back Schraeder is a post 6/1 designation, IMO.

The only contract situation that's even more strange is the $12.81M cap Beasley carries on his 5th year option that we picked up; which if rescinded makes him an UFA. Without getting an extension out of him, is that worth it for one year and FA next season gets him overpaid in another defensive system? Cut losses or extend if he can be had for a Brooks Reed type cap hit on the average? I doubt he takes that. Someone is gonna overpay for him like TeCo, IMO.

Presuming VB is back with that hit it's still a gain of $12.4 in time for FA on 2 moves alone and another $6.45M for 6/1 if anyone is left or cut at that time.

That means we could be roughly $38M in space before Grady/TeCo/Julio. Julio won't change the 2019 hit much. Grady and TeCo together would take $20M of the space according to market value; leaving $18M for every other FA. (Some of it needed for draft due to rule of 51)

FAs we probably want back from this list (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/atlanta-falcons/):

Jarrett

TeCo

Poole

Irvin

Ish

Sambrailo

Paulsen (for blocking alone)

Hall or Hardy back?

Wreh-Wilson? (if cutting Rocky)

If we swing the cap space open like this and Grady comes back close to $15M averaged out (with contract designed to accommodate other FAs in 2020 like Debo, Hoop etc), who can we get in FA that would help our draft targets? Any pending FAs we might go for on OL or DL? Any vet CBs better than Rocky? Which position is best money spent in FA for our projected 2019 roster?

We can do without Teco, Hardy, and Hall, all very replaceable via Draft or even FA.

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32 minutes ago, HMFIC said:

We can do without Teco, Hardy, and Hall, all very replaceable via Draft or even FA.

Hall is ERFA so he may stay for beans.

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Posted (edited)

17 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Hall is ERFA so he may stay for beans.

I don't think Hardy is going to be able to command much either. That said we've carried a couple of WRs on the PS all year and they can do his job for small $$$

Hall was a decent KR so he has value there

Edited by Geneaut
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8 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I don't think Harry is going to be able to command much either. That said we've carried a couple of WRs on the PS all year and they can do his job for small $$$

Hall was a decent OR so he has value there

Ya, I want to see if Gage or even Gray develop. Might see Hardy back if we stay WCO. Don’t think so otherwise.

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2 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Ya, I want to see if Gage or even Gray develop. Might see Hardy back if we stay WCO. Don’t think so otherwise.

Gage had some rookie yips but he had a few times he showed more upside than I think we will ever see from Hardy. 

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Hardy can kick rocks.

I actually like Hall's potential to be like what we had with Gabriel.

I get the feeling Matt Ryan likes him, too because he's talked favorably about Hall in the media several times.

The big issue is that even with Hardy leaving, there are just too many others ahead of him in the chow line. So he's never really gonna get a chance to eat unless someone else gets hurt.

I would like to see him stick around to compete with Gage for the 4th/5th spot & for him to handle both KR & PR duties... so we might actually have a chance for a dynamic game breaking punt return once in a while rather than that ultraconservative, safe as milk, call fair catch even if the closest defender is 20 yards away BS over & over & over.

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23 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

I don't think Hardy is going to be able to command much either. That said we've carried a couple of WRs on the PS all year and they can do his job for small $$$

Hall was a decent KR so he has value there

We honestly won't know until we see our new st system.. But I have no doubt it'll be strides better than what weve had.. Hall may be a excellent returner in a better system 

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@k-train that’s my take on it as well. They like Hall. Robinson or Gabriel type usage. Would possibly be that 4th or 5th in Koetter’s system if they packaged a few plays with him on the field for a drive or two a game at most. I’m thinking Gage is more of a baller already if he can grind the reps and technique of WR itself combined with routes and game knowledge.

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On 1/1/2019 at 8:31 PM, kiwifalcon said:

See if I’m Jarretts agent I think different with the games revenues increasing at a rate it’s money grab in all essence.

You say GJ is only worth this well how is it someone like Jimmy G gets 27 per after 10 starts or Kirk Cousins get 90 mill guaranteed :shrug:

Interior pass rush is where this league is going I’ll say it now Jarretts getting 15 plus per on average he’s right on the cusp of being one of thee top guys he’s getting paid 100%.

If not for missed games and some crappy roughing the passer calls he's there already.

Let's not forget that with better management in the SB, he's MVP of that game.

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3 hours ago, HMFIC said:

We can do without Teco, Hardy, and Hall, all very replaceable via Draft or even FA.

I'll be surprised if Teco is a starter for long next season.. I believe he can be a decent #2 back for alot or teams.. But reality is about to set in for what Teco lacks 

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On 1/1/2019 at 11:53 AM, Atl Falcon said:

VB is the elephant in the room....I can’t see paying him 5-6 m per yr even if he would agree to it. Let him loose and we have some $$ to use on better options. 

Maybe I'm a loner in this opinion, but don't you think Vic would improve greatly with Irvin mentoring him for a couple of seasons? We saw Vic improve toward the end of the season, and I don't think it's a coincidence that his improvement started showing after we picked up Irvin. The kid had 16.5 sacks two seasons ago. But he had that great success with Freeney on the roster. He has it in him. He just needs a little more investment. Some players take 3 or 4 seasons to fully blossom. 

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Posted (edited)

6 hours ago, Mid-Nite-Toker said:

If not for missed games and some crappy roughing the passer calls he's there already.

Let's not forget that with better management in the SB, he's MVP of that game.

Grady is going to get paid and he deserves it. Not once has he complained despite outplaying his contact for the last 2 years.

He's only getting better each year, Is 25 years old and as stated if not for some terrible calls he would have had even more stats this year. Not to mention the 3 Sack SB.

Edited by PriMeTiiMe
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7 hours ago, SoCalFalconFan said:

Maybe I'm a loner in this opinion, but don't you think Vic would improve greatly with Irvin mentoring him for a couple of seasons? We saw Vic improve toward the end of the season, and I don't think it's a coincidence that his improvement started showing after we picked up Irvin. The kid had 16.5 sacks two seasons ago. But he had that great success with Freeney on the roster. He has it in him. He just needs a little more investment. Some players take 3 or 4 seasons to fully blossom. 

Well he’s had 4 seasons to develop. I don’t buy the mentoring thing ...after 4 years it’s show time. 

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On 1/1/2019 at 1:50 PM, Ergo Proxy said:

Just digging around spotrac and we got potential cuts that would free up space before FA starts. (Some discussed in threads past)

Here is the 2019 projected cap hits:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/cap/2019/

Alford would save $7.9M on the cap early; as post 6/1 only yields $600k more (by splitting dead money between 19/20 vs all on 19 cap) and would let us have more flexibility for the start of UFA.

Brooks Reed would yield $4.5M straight off of his projected $5.44M cap hit.

The only looming cut worth being post-6/1 designated is Schraeder; who would still have a dead cap of $1.3M (19) and $2.5M (20) with a savings for 19 of $6.45M. So, it's possible they restructure him instead, but if Ty is back Schraeder is a post 6/1 designation, IMO.

The only contract situation that's even more strange is the $12.81M cap Beasley carries on his 5th year option that we picked up; which if rescinded makes him an UFA. Without getting an extension out of him, is that worth it for one year and FA next season gets him overpaid in another defensive system? Cut losses or extend if he can be had for a Brooks Reed type cap hit on the average? I doubt he takes that. Someone is gonna overpay for him like TeCo, IMO.

Presuming VB is back with that hit it's still a gain of $12.4 in time for FA on 2 moves alone and another $6.45M for 6/1 if anyone is left or cut at that time.

That means we could be roughly $38M in space before Grady/TeCo/Julio. Julio won't change the 2019 hit much. Grady and TeCo together would take $20M of the space according to market value; leaving $18M for every other FA. (Some of it needed for draft due to rule of 51)

FAs we probably want back from this list (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/atlanta-falcons/):

Jarrett

TeCo

Poole

Irvin

Ish

Sambrailo

Paulsen (for blocking alone)

Hall or Hardy back?

Wreh-Wilson? (if cutting Rocky)

If we swing the cap space open like this and Grady comes back close to $15M averaged out (with contract designed to accommodate other FAs in 2020 like Debo, Hoop etc), who can we get in FA that would help our draft targets? Any pending FAs we might go for on OL or DL? Any vet CBs better than Rocky? Which position is best money spent in FA for our projected 2019 roster?

I think Julios hit goes up - he is going to average around 19 per. Either way we need Saffold period

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On ‎1‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 1:46 AM, Falcanuck said:

Does anyone know if we still get a comp pick if Vic’s option is rescinded and he signs for big money elsewhere?

I don't know whether rescinded 5th year option players would count in the comp formula or not. I know that they would count in the comp formula, if their 5th-year options were never exercised to begin with.  Still if Beasley's contract were to get rescinded and if he were to count in the comp formula, then Atlanta would still not get a comp pick for Beasley in the 2019 draft, but rather the following year 2020 draft.  Atlanta's projected comp picks for the 2019 draft resulted from Free Agency activity in 2018. Most comp experts are projecting the following comp picks for the Falcons in the 2019 draft:

"Atlanta Falcons

Projected compensatory picks: Round 4; Round 5.
Key free-agent losses: DT Dontari Poe (Panthers), WR Taylor Gabriel (Bears), DE Adrian Clayborn (Patriots).
Key free-agent additions: C Brandon Fusco (Vikings).
The skinny: The loss of Clayborn will be cancelled out by the addition of Fusco, which means Poe and Gabriel should bring the Falcons a fourth- and fifth-round pick, respectively."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000933360/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2019-nfl-draft

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23 minutes ago, theProf said:

I don't know whether rescinded 5th year option players would count in the comp formula or not. I know that they would count in the comp formula, if their 5th-year options were never exercised to begin with.  Still if Beasley's contract were to get rescinded and if he were to count in the comp formula, then Atlanta would still not get a comp pick for Beasley in the 2019 draft, but rather the following year 2020 draft.  Atlanta's projected comp picks for the 2019 draft resulted from Free Agency activity in 2018. Most comp experts are projecting the following comp picks for the Falcons in the 2019 draft:

"Atlanta Falcons

Projected compensatory picks: Round 4; Round 5.
Key free-agent losses: DT Dontari Poe (Panthers), WR Taylor Gabriel (Bears), DE Adrian Clayborn (Patriots).
Key free-agent additions: C Brandon Fusco (Vikings).
The skinny: The loss of Clayborn will be cancelled out by the addition of Fusco, which means Poe and Gabriel should bring the Falcons a fourth- and fifth-round pick, respectively."

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000933360/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2019-nfl-draft

And these picks are now tradable (as per the rule change), correct? But yeah, recinding the option is a tricky one. If he still qualified, I’d be more inclined to let him walk, but if not, I’d keep him for his 5th year then let him walk if he doesn’t produce. 

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34 minutes ago, Falcanuck said:

And these picks are now tradable (as per the rule change), correct? But yeah, recinding the option is a tricky one. If he still qualified, I’d be more inclined to let him walk, but if not, I’d keep him for his 5th year then let him walk if he doesn’t produce. 

Yes, teams can now trade comp picks.

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Im pretty sure they knew it was worth losing those guys for the picks - they have to be pretty accurate with that stuff if they know what the FA are going to get market wise, so they knew they were going to have a full complement of picks plus some comps in this draft class, draft weekend will be pretty fun this year

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