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Schwarzwald

A look ahead to FA

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51 minutes ago, k-train said:

But that's the thing... the Titans & 49ers didn't already have a HB on the roster that was getting paid well like we have w/ Free.

While $5M/year isn't absurd, it does put a guy in the current top 12 avg. per year amongst all HBs.

Freeman is currently 4th. Giving Coleman $5M would have him in the top 15 when all is said & done, too.

So giving him $5M/year might not be a big deal for a lot of other teams, there is definitely an argument to be made that we are not in a position to tie up that much cap room at HB.

I don’t ever stress about the salary cap. TD has never given me a reason to. And I personally believe that if the team can bring back Coleman, they should. Both Freeman and Coleman healthy is equal to having a player like Gurley or Elliot on your team. They are an incredible duo 

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2 minutes ago, k-train said:

I think Campbell was just being asked to do too much this year in Debo's absence & was forced too far out of his comfort zone. I feel like he's gonna be really good for us again once he's back to playing when, where, and how he's best suited to find success... not unlike Beasley... and I feel better about that with DQ taking the reins on defense.

I like that Foye has gotten a ton of playing time this season & am interested to see his progression moving forward. I think Riley is decent as depth/ST contributor. But agree we need to continue to build our LB corps. There are a few UFAs I think wouldn't break the bank & could be useful to us for a few years.

It would certainly allow us to go BPA CB, DL, or elsewhere in round 1 and OL later.

My only remaining root concern is Debo or bust if he is hurt? What about Freeman on the flip side? A good OL can do a lot tho.

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5 minutes ago, Falconcheff said:

Yessir!  The question is not Ish or Duke, it's Ish or Irvin...and I think we're all in agreement there...give Irvin Ish's Mil!!  I also see us needing a Second Round LB...

 

DeBo, DeVondre, Foye, Irvin, Duke (shudder) and Second round draft pick... are we comfortable with that as our LB corps?

I think @k-trainUFA plan is better than a high draft pick. And more to the point, I don’t want us banking on a reach like Duke again (miss or no miss).

Just fix the lines good and proper. If we don’t nail some FA fits we gotta spend on the lines early in draft.

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9 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

I think @k-trainUFA plan is better than a high draft pick. And more to the point, I don’t want us banking on a reach like Duke again (miss or no miss).

Just fix the lines good and proper. If we don’t nail some FA fits we gotta spend on the lines early in draft.

I could certainly be talked into flipping my Second and Third rounds plan to go Second Round OL and Third Round LB... but in my years of observation, very few drafted OL become immediate quality contributors; whereas there is plenty of evidence to suggest front 7 defensive players from the draft are more often than not quality contributors... I have always been in favor of Oline Free Agency/Front 7 Draft... Personally, I do not want any more than 1 drafted Olineman at a time...the great lines (Cowboys, Colts, Saints) drafted one guy a year...I've seen posters here advocate drafting as many as 2 OT and 2 OG this year!???

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4 hours ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Just digging around spotrac and we got potential cuts that would free up space before FA starts. (Some discussed in threads past)

Here is the 2019 projected cap hits:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/cap/2019/

Alford would save $7.9M on the cap early; as post 6/1 only yields $600k more (by splitting dead money between 19/20 vs all on 19 cap) and would let us have more flexibility for the start of UFA.

Brooks Reed would yield $4.5M straight off of his projected $5.44M cap hit.

The only looming cut worth being post-6/1 designated is Schraeder; who would still have a dead cap of $1.3M (19) and $2.5M (20) with a savings for 19 of $6.45M. So, it's possible they restructure him instead, but if Ty is back Schraeder is a post 6/1 designation, IMO.

The only contract situation that's even more strange is the $12.81M cap Beasley carries on his 5th year option that we picked up; which if rescinded makes him an UFA. Without getting an extension out of him, is that worth it for one year and FA next season gets him overpaid in another defensive system? Cut losses or extend if he can be had for a Brooks Reed type cap hit on the average? I doubt he takes that. Someone is gonna overpay for him like TeCo, IMO.

Presuming VB is back with that hit it's still a gain of $12.4 in time for FA on 2 moves alone and another $6.45M for 6/1 if anyone is left or cut at that time.

That means we could be roughly $38M in space before Grady/TeCo/Julio. Julio won't change the 2019 hit much. Grady and TeCo together would take $20M of the space according to market value; leaving $18M for every other FA. (Some of it needed for draft due to rule of 51)

FAs we probably want back from this list (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/atlanta-falcons/):

Jarrett

TeCo

Poole

Irvin

Ish

Sambrailo

Paulsen (for blocking alone)

Hall or Hardy back?

Wreh-Wilson? (if cutting Rocky)

If we swing the cap space open like this and Grady comes back close to $15M averaged out (with contract designed to accommodate other FAs in 2020 like Debo, Hoop etc), who can we get in FA that would help our draft targets? Any pending FAs we might go for on OL or DL? Any vet CBs better than Rocky? Which position is best money spent in FA for our projected 2019 roster?

Here are my first thoughts:

 

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6 minutes ago, FalconFanSince1970 said:

Here are my first thoughts:

 

Thank you! Ima read that after my errands tonight.

Enjoy well thought out plans. Especially when they are better than mine! Good day good sir!:tiphat:

 

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4 hours ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I actually have a gut feeling that both Beasley and Teco are coming back, both on new contracts. 

Yeah, we paid Dontari like $9M per year, correct? So $12M for Beasley wouldn't be that crazy.

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Jarrett is good, but its hard for me to wrap my head around paying him 15 million. That's top 5 DT money. I really don't think they can pay him that much. I've never seen him take over a game like the other guys he'd be up there with Donald, Cox, Atkins, Campbell, McCoy, and Short have all had games against the Falcons where they have taken over. 

I think 11-14 million for him is a more than fair offer IMO.

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7 minutes ago, Steel City Falcon said:

Jarrett is good, but its hard for me to wrap my head around paying him 15 million. That's top 5 DT money. I really don't think they can pay him that much. I've never seen him take over a game like the other guys he'd be up there with Donald, Cox, Atkins, Campbell, McCoy, and Short have all had games against the Falcons where they have taken over. 

I think 11-14 million for him is a more than fair offer IMO.

Unfortunately what fans think are fair contracts and what the NFL is actually dictating are two different things...  We WILL sign Grady to around a 15 Mil contract, and that will be that.

 

We WILL ALSO sign Beasley to somewhere around 12 Mil as well... people need to understand that their idea of "fair" and the NFL's idea of market value do not coincide... it's not just Beasley or Grady... those numbers are what ANY FA will cost, good, bad or indeterminate... 

 

Make no mistake, the cap is easy enough to manipulate to put those contracts together and also accomplish some of our other needs.  this will be an exciting offseason for fans if they can get past their personal biases and get behind the pure reality of cap manipulation and on-field performance...

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7 hours ago, k-train said:

I'd like to see us give VB something like 5yr/$32M w/ $16M guaranteed.

Structure the deal so the guaranteed money is outta the way in the first 3 years & his cap numbers in those seasons are:
2019 - $6.5M (fully guaranteed)
2020 - $6M (fully guaranteed)
2021 - $5.5M ($3.5M guaranteed)
--- AT THIS POINT HE COULD BE CUT WITH NO DEAD MONEY---
2022 - $6M
2023 - $8M

Consider that the 5th year option would mean giving him a fully guaranteed $12.5M for one season... this example is essentially spreading that amount over the first two seasons of the deal & adding a bit extra on in the 3rd year as an incentive for him to agree to a deal like this.

Should he continue to struggle, he could be easily let go before the 3rd year for a pretty small amount of dead money, or after the 3rd season with absolutely no dead money at all.

Should he achieve his full potential during those first few years of the deal, it'd be mutually beneficial to restructure/extend at that point.

I wouldn’t bother with the 5 year deal.

For me I’d just tag him give him the 12 if he doesn’t perform move him on.

Your giving him 16 guaranteed spread over 5 years why when we pretty much no what he is.

For me this is easy it’s prove it or be gone.No need to spread his money out.

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3 hours ago, Steel City Falcon said:

Jarrett is good, but its hard for me to wrap my head around paying him 15 million. That's top 5 DT money. I really don't think they can pay him that much. I've never seen him take over a game like the other guys he'd be up there with Donald, Cox, Atkins, Campbell, McCoy, and Short have all had games against the Falcons where they have taken over. 

I think 11-14 million for him is a more than fair offer IMO.

See if I’m Jarretts agent I think different with the games revenues increasing at a rate it’s money grab in all essence.

You say GJ is only worth this well how is it someone like Jimmy G gets 27 per after 10 starts or Kirk Cousins get 90 mill guaranteed :shrug:

Interior pass rush is where this league is going I’ll say it now Jarretts getting 15 plus per on average he’s right on the cusp of being one of thee top guys he’s getting paid 100%.

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7 hours ago, Jesus said:

I guess we will see. Quinn believes in him and hey he was his first draft pick. He played his best when Quinn took over the defense in 2016 and looked good down the stretch playing more of a limited role. They may work something out with his contract, but I don't know how all that works.

Did he though?

Vic was practically invisible during the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, kiwifalcon said:

I wouldn’t bother with the 5 year deal.

For me I’d just tag him give him the 12 if he doesn’t perform move him on.

Your giving him 16 guaranteed spread over 5 years why when we pretty much no what he is.

For me this is easy it’s prove it or be gone.No need to spread his money out.

I hear what you're saying, but I personally think that he's not a $12M/year player... not even for 1 year.

I do however think that he can be a valuable situational asset, and that's why I would try to work out a longer-term deal worth around $6M/year. The deal I proposed is really like a 2-3 year deal, since the guaranteed money is front-loaded so much (mainly in the first two seasons with a little more in the third, not over the full 5 years like you mentioned).

What I mentioned & what you are getting at are two totally different approaches to what kind of player he is... and like you said, by now we have a pretty good read on what he's going to be. So, if you're just trying to see if there's any chance of him returning to 2016 form, I agree that you let him play of the $12m fifth year option this season. But if you are convinced that's not really who he is, but you think he still has value as a rotational pass rushing specialist... that's worth 3 years or so at $6M/year IMO.

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1 hour ago, falconfreek123 said:

What are the chances we sign gerald McCoy?

I'd love this move for a short 2-3 year deal if reasonable. Having an inside guy for our current SB window would do wonders and free us up for other moves in the draft, but it can't be at the sake of OL stability moving forward.

That's where the whole VB for almost $13M next year being like ??? Yeah, can be well spent elsewhere. Like on McCoy and another dude. I'd offer McCoy like $9M/y on average over a 3 year deal. Some upfront to sweeten it and let's us cut him by year 3 if needed with no cap hit.

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6 hours ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I don’t ever stress about the salary cap. TD has never given me a reason to. And I personally believe that if the team can bring back Coleman, they should. Both Freeman and Coleman healthy is equal to having a player like Gurley or Elliot on your team. They are an incredible duo 

We need to ditch either Freeman or Coleman for a big back.. I don't care which one goes, but we don't need both. A big RB that can catch would be much more value to this team imo

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4 minutes ago, ⚡Slumerican⚡ said:

We need to ditch either Freeman or Coleman for a big back.. I don't care which one goes, but we don't need both. A big RB that can catch would be much more value to this team imo

Or, we could keep both which has proven its worth. If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it 

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47 minutes ago, k-train said:

I hear what you're saying, but I personally think that he's not a $12M/year player... not even for 1 year.

I do however think that he can be a valuable situational asset, and that's why I would try to work out a longer-term deal worth around $6M/year. The deal I proposed is really like a 2-3 year deal, since the guaranteed money is front-loaded so much (mainly in the first two seasons with a little more in the third, not over the full 5 years like you mentioned).

What I mentioned & what you are getting at are two totally different approaches to what kind of player he is... and like you said, by now we have a pretty good read on what he's going to be. So, if you're just trying to see if there's any chance of him returning to 2016 form, I agree that you let him play of the $12m fifth year option this season. But if you are convinced that's not really who he is, but you think he still has value as a rotational pass rushing specialist... that's worth 3 years or so at $6M/year IMO.

Yep I guess it’s different ways of looking at it.

I just think with that 1 year deal it’s make or break for him hence why I wouldn’t bother investing too much more in him.

He definitely has value I guess you’d have to also weigh up what’s coming and what we have in Means and Irvin and just cut him completely who knows what the plan is in that position. 

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22 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

Or, we could keep both which has proven its worth. If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it 

Right now it's broke, until we know if Free is healthy 

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On 1/1/2019 at 10:31 PM, kiwifalcon said:

See if I’m Jarretts agent I think different with the games revenues increasing at a rate it’s money grab in all essence.

You say GJ is only worth this well how is it someone like Jimmy G gets 27 per after 10 starts or Kirk Cousins get 90 mill guaranteed :shrug:

Interior pass rush is where this league is going I’ll say it now Jarretts getting 15 plus per on average he’s right on the cusp of being one of thee top guys he’s getting paid 100%.

Comparing any position to the ridiculous contracts the QBs get is inaccurate. I do understand your argument though.

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:46 AM, Falcanuck said:

Does anyone know if we still get a comp pick if Vic’s option is rescinded and he signs for big money elsewhere?

That’s a good question. I thought I read recently we do not? Because we already picked up the option? I may be remembering wrong or that poster gave bad info.

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