Ergo Proxy

A look ahead to FA

97 posts in this topic

Posted (edited)

Just digging around spotrac and we got potential cuts that would free up space before FA starts. (Some discussed in threads past)

Here is the 2019 projected cap hits:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/cap/2019/

Alford would save $7.9M on the cap early; as post 6/1 only yields $600k more (by splitting dead money between 19/20 vs all on 19 cap) and would let us have more flexibility for the start of UFA.

Brooks Reed would yield $4.5M straight off of his projected $5.44M cap hit.

The only looming cut worth being post-6/1 designated is Schraeder; who would still have a dead cap of $1.3M (19) and $2.5M (20) with a savings for 19 of $6.45M. So, it's possible they restructure him instead, but if Ty is back Schraeder is a post 6/1 designation, IMO.

The only contract situation that's even more strange is the $12.81M cap Beasley carries on his 5th year option that we picked up; which if rescinded makes him an UFA. Without getting an extension out of him, is that worth it for one year and FA next season gets him overpaid in another defensive system? Cut losses or extend if he can be had for a Brooks Reed type cap hit on the average? I doubt he takes that. Someone is gonna overpay for him like TeCo, IMO.

Presuming VB is back with that hit it's still a gain of $12.4 in time for FA on 2 moves alone and another $6.45M for 6/1 if anyone is left or cut at that time.

That means we could be roughly $38M in space before Grady/TeCo/Julio. Julio won't change the 2019 hit much. Grady and TeCo together would take $20M of the space according to market value; leaving $18M for every other FA. (Some of it needed for draft due to rule of 51)

FAs we probably want back from this list (https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/atlanta-falcons/):

Jarrett

TeCo

Poole

Irvin

Ish

Sambrailo

Paulsen (for blocking alone)

Hall or Hardy back?

Wreh-Wilson? (if cutting Rocky)

If we swing the cap space open like this and Grady comes back close to $15M averaged out (with contract designed to accommodate other FAs in 2020 like Debo, Hoop etc), who can we get in FA that would help our draft targets? Any pending FAs we might go for on OL or DL? Any vet CBs better than Rocky? Which position is best money spent in FA for our projected 2019 roster?

Edited by Ergo Proxy

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Don’t think you will TeCo back. Poole will get the 2nd round tenure. I think you see Grady and Sambrailo resigned no doubt.

I see Schraeder as a no doubt cut along with Vic Beasley. TD will try and extended 44, but unless he’s willing to take $5MM, I see Irving and Julio getting the money saved by resending his 5th year tag.

DMT11, FalconBlood, UK13 and 3 others like this

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2 minutes ago, KCartledge85 said:

Don’t think you will TeCo back. Poole will get the 2nd round tenure. I think you see Grady and Sambrailo resigned no doubt.

I see Schraeder as a no doubt cut along with Vic Beasley. TD will try and extended 44, but unless he’s willing to take $5MM, I see Irving and Julio getting the money saved by resending his 5th year tag.

This is strictly the most financially sensible move, but we lose a lot of value by letting VB go for free (as such a high pick). I'm not ready or capable of making that decision. I'd understand either way, to be fair.

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Good post - this may be our busiest offseason for some while, - I do think DQ will want to keep VB around especially since he is taking over DC - but I cant see us paying him that, they will probably try first to come to a long term deal and do have SOME leverage there but wouldnt be shocked if he passed on that - Schreader seemed to be having trouble in the bucs game as well, its almost like he has lost lots of strength - maybe he just wore out quicker than expected would be my guess happens all the time, but he cant be here playing the way he did this year.  

Say we did let VB go - the good news is that this draft is stocked with DL talent, I cant remember a better one, esp in top 45 picks - some of the top DL guys will drop to second round we may be able to move up a bit and scoop one early 2nd if we end up going with edge rusher with our first pick.  I dont think we pick up any FA along DL this season, were setup not to have too - Id spend all that **** on revamping oline - Rodger saffold for example.

 

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Ryan S had this chance at redemption this past game but still sucked it up and got benched...again. I wouldn't be surprised if he's gone. 

Alford is gone...Reed is gone...Teco will be too expensive. Grady and Julio should be priority resignees.

Poole will be good depth. Irvin, Sambrailo and Paulsen should be resigned. Hardy and Hall have minimal impact but one should be back for cheap.

 

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I'd like to see us give VB something like 5yr/$32M w/ $16M guaranteed.

Structure the deal so the guaranteed money is outta the way in the first 3 years & his cap numbers in those seasons are:
2019 - $6.5M (fully guaranteed)
2020 - $6M (fully guaranteed)
2021 - $5.5M ($3.5M guaranteed)
--- AT THIS POINT HE COULD BE CUT WITH NO DEAD MONEY---
2022 - $6M
2023 - $8M

Consider that the 5th year option would mean giving him a fully guaranteed $12.5M for one season... this example is essentially spreading that amount over the first two seasons of the deal & adding a bit extra on in the 3rd year as an incentive for him to agree to a deal like this.

Should he continue to struggle, he could be easily let go before the 3rd year for a pretty small amount of dead money, or after the 3rd season with absolutely no dead money at all.

Should he achieve his full potential during those first few years of the deal, it'd be mutually beneficial to restructure/extend at that point.

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I’m more interested in what they do with the fringe or depth players.

Guys like Sambrailo,Beadles,Means,Poole and Irvin and alike.

The big signings will be what they’ll be but how they fill out the bottom of the roster is what Ive got my eye on the most.

Right now I’d find a way to keep Means and Poole I think both are physical type players and fit the coaches mantra.

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10 minutes ago, Atl Falcon said:

VB is the elephant in the room....I can’t see paying him 5-6 m per yr even if he would agree to it. Let him loose and we have some $$ to use on better options. 

That is absolutely the tricky part in all of this.

No matter what everyone else thinks of him, if he is convinced that he is able to produce more like the 2016 version of himself, he'll bet on himself & try to get paid big by us or someone else via FA.

If he's thinking that he overachieved in 2016 & comes to terms with the idea that his best role moving forward may be as a situational player, and he really likes the culture here... maybe he'd be open to a longer deal at less per year.

We'll see...

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Posted (edited)

39 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I actually have a gut feeling that both Beasley and Teco are coming back, both on new contracts. 

They both are at a strange place in their career as it could be the biggest payday possible for them both. Depends on their brotherhood status I guess?:shrug: That whole "bet on yourself" or take a consolation contract now, really.

@k-train Exactly. If he is back, I'd rather it not hamstring our 2019 cap basically when he isn't a bad player for his age to have around just need an option to cut later if he doesn't maximize his potential. This opens up that money for bringing Irvin back, too!

Irvin and VB for same price as VB's 2019 hit? Or just VB for that? Hard to see us let him walk, but there is that route considering the nearly $13M just for him next year.:ninja:

Edited by Ergo Proxy

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1 minute ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Maybe, but again as the 4th highest paid Falcon next year?:tiphat:

I guess we will see. Quinn believes in him and hey he was his first draft pick. He played his best when Quinn took over the defense in 2016 and looked good down the stretch playing more of a limited role. They may work something out with his contract, but I don't know how all that works.

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47 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I actually have a gut feeling that both Beasley and Teco are coming back, both on new contracts. 

You need a gut check lol. 

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13 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I guess. Both have underperformed pretty significantly this season. Neither have much leverage. Who is going to break the bank for Coleman? Nobody is that foolish. 

Only they probably are. It's UFA after all. No restriction on cash throws.:shrug:

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4 minutes ago, Ergo Proxy said:

Only they probably are. It's UFA after all. No restriction on cash throws.:shrug:

I could see someone doing it on beasley. He has a 1st team all pro under his belt. Coleman on the other hand doesn’t have a 1000 yard season to his name

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Vic belongs in a 3-4 and we all know it. Even Quinn knows it and should have gotten SOMETHING for Beas before the trade deadline. The lack of innovation & imagination is appalling right now. So many bad contracts and so-so scheme fits. I'll be surprised if this is fixed in one off-season if at all. 

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15 minutes ago, Hurry_Up_And_Buy said:

Vic belongs in a 3-4 and we all know it. Even Quinn knows it and should have gotten SOMETHING for Beas before the trade deadline. The lack of innovation & imagination is appalling right now. So many bad contracts and so-so scheme fits. I'll be surprised if this is fixed in one off-season if at all. 

If that were vaguely true how did VB44 become nfl sack leader in a 43 defense.

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Posted (edited)

1 minute ago, kiwifalcon said:

If that were vaguely true how did VB44 become nfl sack leader in a 43 defense.

Luck. Injuries. Schedule. He will NEVER hit those numbers again and we ALL know it. Oh and a wonderful mentor who was still producing in the twilight of his career.

Edited by Hurry_Up_And_Buy

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30 minutes ago, JD dirtybird21 said:

I could see someone doing it on beasley. He has a 1st team all pro under his belt. Coleman on the other hand doesn’t have a 1000 yard season to his name

We sucked up several guys because of injuries.. They will be let go, and like you said.. We'll have too many holes to properly fill in one offseason with the lack of cap money available 

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