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Ghosts of Glanville

Matt Ryan has a shot at 75,000 career passing yards

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Sound insane?  Not really once you do the math.  

The other day Ryan said he could see playing until he’s over 40.   Assuming the Falcons base offensive philosophy doesn’t change and Ryan’s ridiculous durability holds up, he could make it.  

He ended this season with 46,720 yards.   If Ryan can stay at a pace averaging 4,100 yards per year for the next five seasons (which would be his age-38 season), at that point he would be at 67,200 yards.  

If Matt were to play three more years, until he’s 41, and averaged 2,800 yards per year (we’ll assume injuries catch up and he misses a full year’s worth of games), that would get him 8,400 more yards, giving him 75,600 for his career.  

If this were to happen, Matt Ryan’s final career line would probably look something like this:

Yards: 75,600

TDs:  460

Int:  200

comp %:  66%

Rating:  97.0

A lot has to go right for him to get there, but the fact that there is a reasonable case where he could make it shows that this guy is pretty dang good. 

(I know there will be the “and zero rings” reply, but if a guy puts up these numbers and doesn’t have a title, that’s an indictment of the organization, not him)

Edited by Ghosts of Glanville
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If we're extrapolating positive stuff for Ryan, lets get him over 500 TDs too. All that requires is for him to have a couple of big TD years, which every other elite QB has later in his career.

There were at least a dozen TD passes that Ryan didn't throw this year- 3 he ran in, 1 he caught himself, several missed/dropped ones. He could easily have a year or two where he gets 40-45 TDs.

Ergo Proxy likes this

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2 hours ago, Ghosts of Glanville said:

Sound insane?  Not really once you do the math.  

The other day Ryan said he could see playing until he’s over 40.   Assuming the Falcons base offensive philosophy doesn’t change and Ryan’s ridiculous durability holds up, he could make it.  

He ended this season with 46,720 yards.   If Ryan can stay at a pace averaging 4,100 yards per year for the next five seasons (which would be his age-38 season), at that point he would be at 67,200 yards.  

...

Actually easier than that, last 7 years, he's averaged 4600 yards a year, he does that for another 5 years, he's right at 70,000 yards. Then, you're looking at 75K+ for a career.

Last 7 years, he's averaged 28 TDs a year, that's 435 TDs in the same time frame.  If he's sitting at 70K and 435 TDs at age 38, 75 and 500 are within range. Add a ring or two, he's first ballot HOF

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